Player Spotlight: Vincent Jackson (1 Viewer)

[Sigmund Bloom]

52 catches800 yards7 TDs

wow, just a little over 3 receptions per game huh?I think Davis or Floyd would really have to come on for his reception total to be that low.

Or Gates gets back up around 85 receptions.But you've done a good job laying out 2/3 of the risks of just projecting Jackson to get a big bump in targets, catches and yards... Floyd and Davis are definitely threats to emerge and derail the coming out party that some have Jackson scheduled for this year.

 

[Jason Wood]

Oh, and in before the "those guys weren't as good as VJax" parade..

Thanks.A) How many were in an offense as good as SD's

B) How many were drafted as high as Jackson?

Darnerian McCants was a 5th rounder, the Redskins offense was #22 in the NFL [points scored] Marc Boerigter was undrafted, the Chiefs offense was #1 in the NFL [points scored] Tony Jones was a 6th rounder, the Oilers offense was #2 in the NFL [points scored]

Wesley Walker was a 2nd rounder, the Jets offense was #6 in the NFL [points scored]

Lionel Manuel was a 7th rounder, the Giants offense was #22 in the NFL [points scored]

Daryl Turner was a 2nd rounder, the Seahawks offense was #6 in the NFL [points scored]

Not sure what round has to do with this, but two of the guys were also 2nd rounders and also part of top offenses. Two others were later round picks but part of top offenses.

So basically we're working with an extremely limited dataset(two) for players that fit under your criteria.

Not sure what round has to do with this, but two of the guys were also 2nd rounders and also part of top offenses.

You have a better chance at success in the NFL if you're drafted in a high round, which is why the NFL pays their first rounders more than second rounders, second rounders more than third rounders etc. etc.

LOL...so let me get this straight. You dismiss the data set as being too small to matter. I would counter, where is the data set that suggests he'll markedly improve this year? And let's not go down the draft pick debate, you're far too smart to try to hide behind an argument you yourself don't really believe in.

 

[LHUCKS]

52 catches800 yards7 TDs

wow, just a little over 3 receptions per game huh?I think Davis or Floyd would really have to come on for his reception total to be that low.

Or Gates gets back up around 85 receptions.But you've done a good job laying out 2/3 of the risks of just projecting Jackson to get a big bump in targets, catches and yards... Floyd and Davis are definitely threats to emerge and derail the coming out party that some have Jackson scheduled for this year.

I think Eric Parker gets pushed out by Floyd, not Jackson. I doubt Gates sees 85 given the attention he is now getting from defenses like Denver, where they basically have a DB shadowing him(often Champ Bailey) for most of the game. Jackson and Floyd would have to start pretty fast to take some heat off of Gates.

 

[Banger]

52 catches800 yards7 TDs

wow, just a little over 3 receptions per game huh?I think Davis or Floyd would really have to come on for his reception total to be that low.

Or Gates gets back up around 85 receptions.But you've done a good job laying out 2/3 of the risks of just projecting Jackson to get a big bump in targets, catches and yards... Floyd and Davis are definitely threats to emerge and derail the coming out party that some have Jackson scheduled for this year.

Also you make a good point about Gates receptions going back up....this was from the same training camp report from 5/13....It was clear in the Chargers' first minicamp under Norv Turner that TE Antonio Gates will not be the forgotten man, as he sometimes was under former offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Turner, the new head coach and offensive play caller, has broadened Gates' repertoire of routes. Turner seems intrigued by how good the Chargers' offense can be, and Gates is clearly at the center of his plans for making it more potent. Creating more options for Gates will confuse defenses more and should add a new dimension to the offense, which led the league in points in 2006.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

For those projecting a big bump for Jackson in 2007:

What did you see in 2006 that foretold good things in his future?

Not to belabor the point, but when I think back to Charger games last year, Floyd is the guy that had the look of someone whose role should increase, not Jackson. Did I just miss the games where he looked like a future stud?

 

[LHUCKS]

I would counter, where is the data set that suggests he'll markedly improve this year?

A) Key quantitative indicators for me are 1) YPC 2) TD/target3) Last 4 Games played. Factor in that his targets are likely to substantially increase and the math is pretty straight forward for a "marked improvement."B) Key qualitative factors are that he is likely to start in an offense that gave a decrepit McCardell 70 receptions two years ago. Also, he is the best big play WR on the team IMHO and he has above average athletic ability.

 

[LHUCKS]

For those projecting a big bump for Jackson in 2007:What did you see in 2006 that foretold good things in his future?

See my above post.To elaborate a bit more here are Jackson's last four regular season games:

| 14  den  |	 0  |	3	95  |  0 || 15  kan  |	 0  |	3	66  |  0 || 16  sea  |	 8  |	5	97  |  2 || 17  ari  |	 0  |	3	28  |  1 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

For those projecting a big bump for Jackson in 2007:What did you see in 2006 that foretold good things in his future?

See my above post.To elaborate a bit more here are Jackson's last four regular season games:

| 14  den  |	 0  |	3	95  |  0 || 15  kan  |	 0  |	3	66  |  0 || 16  sea  |	 8  |	5	97  |  2 || 17  ari  |	 0  |	3	28  |  1 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+

1) Those stats are anchored by the Seattle game, where his production was mainly due to Eric Parker (and Floyd) being out and blown coverages by the Seahawk secondary. I could almost have covered the deep zone as well as Boulware did on the second TD. Also note that Jackson had to get 14 targets to get those 5 catches. Yes, this game is relevant for projecting what Jackson will do when the only healthy WRs are him and Kassim Osgood. 2) Youre still just citing stats. What did you actually see with your own eyes?

 

[KING]

For those projecting a big bump for Jackson in 2007:What did you see in 2006 that foretold good things in his future?

See my above post.To elaborate a bit more here are Jackson's last four regular season games:

| 14  den  |	 0  |	3	95  |  0 || 15  kan  |	 0  |	3	66  |  0 || 16  sea  |	 8  |	5	97  |  2 || 17  ari  |	 0  |	3	28  |  1 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+

so what you're saying is; after they already had everything locked up, then they started playing jackson.

 

[LHUCKS]

52 catches800 yards7 TDs

wow, just a little over 3 receptions per game huh?I think Davis or Floyd would really have to come on for his reception total to be that low.

Or Gates gets back up around 85 receptions.But you've done a good job laying out 2/3 of the risks of just projecting Jackson to get a big bump in targets, catches and yards... Floyd and Davis are definitely threats to emerge and derail the coming out party that some have Jackson scheduled for this year.

Also you make a good point about Gates receptions going back up....this was from the same training camp report from 5/13....It was clear in the Chargers' first minicamp under Norv Turner that TE Antonio Gates will not be the forgotten man, as he sometimes was under former offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Turner, the new head coach and offensive play caller, has broadened Gates' repertoire of routes. Turner seems intrigued by how good the Chargers' offense can be, and Gates is clearly at the center of his plans for making it more potent. Creating more options for Gates will confuse defenses more and should add a new dimension to the offense, which led the league in points in 2006.

Every coach is projecting 80 receptions for their TE this time of year.I don't see Gates' targets increasing dramatically if defensive backfields continue to key on him...there is a chance his efficiency and YPC may improve though.

 

[Gr00vus]

Floyd basically ran one route. He went straight down the right sideline as fast as he could, and if he had single coverage (which he often did) Rivers would send it his way, and either Floyd had beaten his guy and made the reception, or he outsized the defender to make the reception. Jackson was running all the #1 receiver routes after McCardell was put on ice, and he did have some nice games. You can talk about Floyd all you want, but it he's in the mix for #2 receiver with Parker and Davis. Jackson is the #1 receiver and with good reason. He's fast, he's big, he's strong, he can jump out of the building, and when he wants too he runs good routes and has good hands (concentration is something he needs to improve upon however). Maybe he doesn't put up numbers like McCardell did two years ago, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he did, and I'm pretty sure he will improve on last year's numbers strictly via being the #1 WR all season long. If you combine his numbers from last year with McCardell's (which is how it's basically going to play out in terms of opportunities this year), you get :

63 890 6

I'd put that down as a reasonable floor for Jackson (barring injury). Realistically I'd expect more yards since Jackson is faster than McCardell at this point in their careers, stronger than McCardell at any point in their careers which should result in more YAC/bigger plays for Jackson than what McCardell was capable of last season. I'd also expect another TD or two as Jackson has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to get behind the defense which will result in more big plays than McCardell was capable of as long as Rivers can get him the ball somewhere near in bounds (which Phil failed to do several times last year). Also I expect Rivers to improve on last year and LaDainian to not be as totally dominant in the offense (I think LaDainian is the best player in the NFL, but it would be very difficult for him to have another season like last year again this year) as well, with Jackson obviously one of the beneficiaries.

It remains to be seen what his ADPs will be, but I'd bet that at the end of the season he'll represent a bargain for where he's taken in most leagues.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

For those projecting a big bump for Jackson in 2007:What did you see in 2006 that foretold good things in his future?

See my above post.To elaborate a bit more here are Jackson's last four regular season games:

| 14  den  |	 0  |	3	95  |  0 || 15  kan  |	 0  |	3	66  |  0 || 16  sea  |	 8  |	5	97  |  2 || 17  ari  |	 0  |	3	28  |  1 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+

He also had a TD in the playoff game had he got the tip of his shoe in bounds. Yah Yah, it dosen't count, but they point is he was targeted for it.

 

[LHUCKS]

1) Those stats are anchored by the Seattle game, where his production was mainly due to Eric Parker (and Floyd) being out

A) Jackson > ParkerB) Floyd seems to always be out and as previously stated I think Floyd beats out Parker not Jackson.

Also note that Jackson had to get 14 targets to get those 5 catches.

You'd obviously like to see a higher conversion rate, but this is only one game. As Maurile stated earlier in this thread Rivers threw bad pass after bad pass to Jackson throughout the year.

2) Youre still just citing stats. What did you actually see with your own eyes?

I saw a raw, cocky, physical and explosive WR that wants to be a star. He has what most WRs don't have...the ability to separate at will. I'd be shocked if he's not starting week 1.

 

[LHUCKS]

For those projecting a big bump for Jackson in 2007:What did you see in 2006 that foretold good things in his future?

See my above post.To elaborate a bit more here are Jackson's last four regular season games:

| 14  den  |	 0  |	3	95  |  0 || 15  kan  |	 0  |	3	66  |  0 || 16  sea  |	 8  |	5	97  |  2 || 17  ari  |	 0  |	3	28  |  1 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+

He also had a TD in the playoff game had he got the tip of his shoe in bounds. Yah Yah, it dosen't count, but they point is he was targeted for it.

That was my ace in the hole, so thanks for blowing it. Rivers knows the guy gets open.

 

[H.K.]

B) Key qualitative factors are that he is likely to start in an offense that gave a decrepit McCardell 70 receptions two years ago.

McCardell was targeted 108 times and had a 64.8 reception/target ratio that season....which coincidentally was with Brees at QB.It's the same issue I already addressed: In order for him to get that many targets, he'd have to get practically twice as many as he got last year (virtually every target McCardell left vacant for this season) and Jackson would have to increase his catch per target by nearly 20%. Do you have anything tangible to offer that shows a good reason Jackson's targets and reception percentage will increase so dramatically? So far, all you've provided is opinion, no quotes from the staff or management that they'll make a concerted effort to get him the ball. Then your previous post shows his last four games in 2006 where he "emerged" and averaged 3.5 catches a game, which is only on pace for 56 receptions for a season, well short of your projection of 70 catches....The only way Jackson gets the numbers you projected will be if Gates or LT were injured early on and the Chargers defense has a terrible season

 

[H.K.]

Every coach is projecting 80 receptions for their TE this time of year.

Never heard of John Fox, have you?

 

[LHUCKS]

So far, all you've provided is opinion,

I'll respond to your posts when they don't contain misstatements or a condescending tone.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

52 rec. 778 yds. 6 TD

To much risk involved for the really high projections, that I am seeing.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Davis was drafted to compete with Parker. Although the Bolts brass love Parker, he provides zero threat downfield so he becomes a huge liability when he drops balls (as he did in the NE game).

The Bolts desperately needed a burner on the outside to keep the safeties honest; Gates and VJax are as big and physical of a 1-2 receiver tandem as there is in the NFL. Opposing defenses were able to cheat up against those two b/c Parker didn't scare anyone deep. Davis is supposed to change that and the thinking is that both Gates and VJax will benefit from his presence even when he's not catching balls.

The biggest obstacle I see in VJax putting up Top 10 WR #'s is Philip Rivers. Rivers is right there with Drew Brees (just behind Manning and Brady) in terms of reading coverages correctly and throwing to the right receiver as dictated by the defensive alignment. Basically, he always takes what the defense gives him, and rarely locks onto and forces the ball to a receiver. When he does, AGates is his man.

I expect a lot more game like the last 4 weeks of the regular season from VJax. 60+ catches, ~ 1000 yrds, and 7-9 TDs.

 

[LHUCKS]

Davis was drafted to compete with Parker. Although the Bolts brass love Parker, he provides zero threat downfield so he becomes a huge liability when he drops balls (as he did in the NE game).The Bolts desperately needed a burner on the outside to keep the safeties honest; Gates and VJax are as big and physical of a 1-2 receiver tandem as there is in the NFL. Opposing defenses were able to cheat up against those two b/c Parker didn't scare anyone deep. Davis is supposed to change that and the thinking is that both Gates and VJax will benefit from his presence even when he's not catching balls.The biggest obstacle I see in VJax putting up Top 10 WR #'s is Philip Rivers. Rivers is right there with Drew Brees (just behind Manning and Brady) in terms of reading coverages correctly and throwing to the right receiver as dictated by the defensive alignment. Basically, he always takes what the defense gives him, and rarely locks onto and forces the ball to a receiver. When he does, AGates is his man.I expect a lot more game like the last 4 weeks of the regular season from VJax. 60+ catches, ~ 1000 yrds, and 7-9 TDs.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

For me... Lots of variable including Philip Rivers and a TE and RB that get lots of receptions and a new 1st round WR and a change in coaching.

52 880 6

Risk/reward player with a ceiling in the 1100 9 area and basement in the 35 500 3 region.

Pretty damn positive that people who are very high on Rivers will grab him before I ever will. Let alone those who are big on VJ himself.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

A few more of my thoughts. (I still won't have projections until later.)

1. Even if the Chargers had traded Vincent Jackson for Torry Holt straight up just before the draft, WR and S would still have been the top two positions of need, so drafting a WR in the first round wasn't a surprise, and doesn't necessarily say anything about Jackson. (With Holt at WR1, the WR2 would have still been below average in talent for the NFL. Name another position on the Chargers for which that'd be true. Safety? Okay, now name another.)

2. In response to JayMan's questions, the poor throws from Rivers were not caused by Jackson's inability to separate. On the plays I'm thinking of, Jackson was open. They could have been caused by poor route-running (so Jackson wasn't where Rivers expected him to be), but Rivers took responsibility for them in post-game interviews, which is evidence against that view (but not conclusive evidence).

3. While Jackson's TD total isn't a lock to go up, I don't think last year's TD total was a fluke. McCardell and Parker were the starters, but they both came out of the game in the red zone because Jackson and Floyd were better targets in that area. Jackson is a very good red zone target, and should continue to be targeted down there frequently. He is also a legitimate deep threat and can score on long patterns.

4. I would expect Jackson's touchdowns per catch to drop this year. It was anomalously high last year. But it will drop because he'll get more catches, not because he'll get fewer touchdowns. Jackson will play full-time between the 20s this year, not just in three-WR sets and goal line situations.

5. It is confirmed that Jackson is currently considered the WR1 for the Chargers. AJ Smith and others in the organization have said so. Somebody mentioned that Jackson and Parker might be 1a and 1b. I would say it's more like Jackson is 1, and Parker, Floyd, and Davis are 2a, 2b, and 2c. That's as of right now, however. By the end of the season, any of those guys could be number one. Maybe Davis will pull a Marques Colston. Who knows? But Jackson would be the current favorite to finish number one.

6. I like Floyd's size, athleticism, and hands, but I think Jackson is the more complete and better overall receiver. Jackson has better speed, is stronger, and runs better routes (although he needs to improve in the last area). Floyd might have better hands, but they both have good hands. They are both straight-line guys to some extent, but Floyd more so. Floyd has a lot of physical potential, so I'm not counting him out in the future ... but based on last year I'd say Jackson is more complete.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Floyd basically ran one route. He went straight down the right sideline as fast as he could, and if he had single coverage (which he often did) Rivers would send it his way, and either Floyd had beaten his guy and made the reception, or he outsized the defender to make the reception.

This is not entirely true. I remember one time he went down the left sideline.

 

[LHUCKS]

A few more of my thoughts. (I still won't have projections until later.)

1. Even if the Chargers had traded Vincent Jackson for Torry Holt straight up just before the draft, WR and S would still have been the top two positions of need, so drafting a WR in the first round wasn't a surprise, and doesn't necessarily say anything about Jackson. (With Holt at WR1, the WR2 would have still been below average in talent for the NFL. Name another position on the Chargers for which that'd be true. Safety? Okay, now name another.)

2. In response to JayMan's questions, the poor throws from Rivers were not caused by Jackson's inability to separate. On the plays I'm thinking of, Jackson was open. They could have been caused by poor route-running (so Jackson wasn't where Rivers expected him to be), but Rivers took responsibility for them in post-game interviews, which is evidence against that view (but not conclusive evidence).

3. While Jackson's TD total isn't a lock to go up, I don't think last year's TD total was a fluke. McCardell and Parker were the starters, but they both came out of the game in the red zone because Jackson and Floyd were better targets in that area. Jackson is a very good red zone target, and should continue to be targeted down there frequently. He is also a legitimate deep threat and can score on long patterns.

4. I would expect Jackson's touchdowns per catch to drop this year. It was anomalously high last year. But it will drop because he'll get more catches, not because he'll get fewer touchdowns. Jackson will play full-time between the 20s this year, not just in three-WR sets and goal line situations.

5. It is confirmed that Jackson is currently considered the WR1 for the Chargers. AJ Smith and others in the organization have said so. Somebody mentioned that Jackson and Parker might be 1a and 1b. I would say it's more like Jackson is 1, and Parker, Floyd, and Davis are 2a, 2b, and 2c. That's as of right now, however. By the end of the season, any of those guys could be number one. Maybe Davis will pull a Marques Colston. Who knows? But Jackson would be the current favorite to finish number one.

6. I like Floyd's size, athleticism, and hands, but I think Jackson is the more complete and better overall receiver. Jackson has better speed, is stronger, and runs better routes (although he needs to improve in the last area). Floyd might have better hands, but they both have good hands. They are both straight-line guys to some extent, but Floyd more so. Floyd has a lot of physical potential, so I'm not counting him out in the future ... but based on last year I'd say Jackson is more complete.

, I completely agree on almost all accounts.

 

[H.K.]

So far, all you've provided is opinion,

I'll respond to your posts when they don't contain misstatements or a condescending tone.

I posted facts, you posted conjecture. Not sure why you view that as being condescending.

 

[LHUCKS]

So far, all you've provided is opinion,

I'll respond to your posts when they don't contain misstatements or a condescending tone.

I posted facts, you posted conjecture. Not sure why you view that as being condescending.

Read my posts, you'll see there are facts. Further, qualitative analysis, what you may call "conjecture", should be a part of every projection. Most of my projections that go against the grain I find are often based on qualitative analysis because that is the part of analytics where ff'ers appear to most often drop the ball..they see the stats but they don't watch all of the games with a trained eye. You'll notice those that actually watched all of the Chargers games last year(Gunz, Tremblay, Me etc.) are predicting a 900+ yard season, a lot of that is based on qualitative analysis and not the quantitative stats that you appear to rely on. That being said, there are some stats(that I've already provided or pointed to) that strengthen the argument.IMHO, ff sharks see more than just stats and coach's quotes...all of which I had memorized before I posted in this thread.

 

[Banger]

52 catches800 yards7 TDs

wow, just a little over 3 receptions per game huh?I think Davis or Floyd would really have to come on for his reception total to be that low.

Or Gates gets back up around 85 receptions.But you've done a good job laying out 2/3 of the risks of just projecting Jackson to get a big bump in targets, catches and yards... Floyd and Davis are definitely threats to emerge and derail the coming out party that some have Jackson scheduled for this year.

Also you make a good point about Gates receptions going back up....this was from the same training camp report from 5/13....It was clear in the Chargers' first minicamp under Norv Turner that TE Antonio Gates will not be the forgotten man, as he sometimes was under former offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Turner, the new head coach and offensive play caller, has broadened Gates' repertoire of routes. Turner seems intrigued by how good the Chargers' offense can be, and Gates is clearly at the center of his plans for making it more potent. Creating more options for Gates will confuse defenses more and should add a new dimension to the offense, which led the league in points in 2006.

Every coach is projecting 80 receptions for their TE this time of year.I don't see Gates' targets increasing dramatically if defensive backfields continue to key on him...there is a chance his efficiency and YPC may improve though.

I would say Gates is a different case from most other TE's considering he had 81 and 89 receptions in the two years prior to last year (71 catch's). The fact that they are devising new routes, moving him around, and have acquired a down field wr to stretch the field (Davis) I don't think it's a stretch to think that Gates reception totals climb above 80 next year.

 

[LHUCKS]

52 catches800 yards7 TDs

wow, just a little over 3 receptions per game huh?I think Davis or Floyd would really have to come on for his reception total to be that low.

Or Gates gets back up around 85 receptions.But you've done a good job laying out 2/3 of the risks of just projecting Jackson to get a big bump in targets, catches and yards... Floyd and Davis are definitely threats to emerge and derail the coming out party that some have Jackson scheduled for this year.

Also you make a good point about Gates receptions going back up....this was from the same training camp report from 5/13....It was clear in the Chargers' first minicamp under Norv Turner that TE Antonio Gates will not be the forgotten man, as he sometimes was under former offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Turner, the new head coach and offensive play caller, has broadened Gates' repertoire of routes. Turner seems intrigued by how good the Chargers' offense can be, and Gates is clearly at the center of his plans for making it more potent. Creating more options for Gates will confuse defenses more and should add a new dimension to the offense, which led the league in points in 2006.

Every coach is projecting 80 receptions for their TE this time of year.I don't see Gates' targets increasing dramatically if defensive backfields continue to key on him...there is a chance his efficiency and YPC may improve though.

I would say Gates is a different case from most other TE's considering he had 81 and 89 receptions in the two years prior to last year (71 catch's). The fact that they are devising new routes, moving him around, and have acquired a down field wr to stretch the field (Davis) I don't think it's a stretch to think that Gates reception totals climb above 80 next year.

I don't think it's a stretch at all to see Gates with 80 receptions, I don't have him projected for that, but it's not a stretch. Also, just because they're moving him around doesn't mean they'll increase his targets...targets are the main concern here as it relates to Jackson's opportunity.

 

[Jason Wood]

A few more of my thoughts. (I still won't have projections until later.)

1. Even if the Chargers had traded Vincent Jackson for Torry Holt straight up just before the draft, WR and S would still have been the top two positions of need, so drafting a WR in the first round wasn't a surprise, and doesn't necessarily say anything about Jackson. (With Holt at WR1, the WR2 would have still been below average in talent for the NFL. Name another position on the Chargers for which that'd be true. Safety? Okay, now name another.)

2. In response to JayMan's questions, the poor throws from Rivers were not caused by Jackson's inability to separate. On the plays I'm thinking of, Jackson was open. They could have been caused by poor route-running (so Jackson wasn't where Rivers expected him to be), but Rivers took responsibility for them in post-game interviews, which is evidence against that view (but not conclusive evidence).

3. While Jackson's TD total isn't a lock to go up, I don't think last year's TD total was a fluke. McCardell and Parker were the starters, but they both came out of the game in the red zone because Jackson and Floyd were better targets in that area. Jackson is a very good red zone target, and should continue to be targeted down there frequently. He is also a legitimate deep threat and can score on long patterns.

4. I would expect Jackson's touchdowns per catch to drop this year. It was anomalously high last year. But it will drop because he'll get more catches, not because he'll get fewer touchdowns. Jackson will play full-time between the 20s this year, not just in three-WR sets and goal line situations.

5. It is confirmed that Jackson is currently considered the WR1 for the Chargers. AJ Smith and others in the organization have said so. Somebody mentioned that Jackson and Parker might be 1a and 1b. I would say it's more like Jackson is 1, and Parker, Floyd, and Davis are 2a, 2b, and 2c. That's as of right now, however. By the end of the season, any of those guys could be number one. Maybe Davis will pull a Marques Colston. Who knows? But Jackson would be the current favorite to finish number one.

6. I like Floyd's size, athleticism, and hands, but I think Jackson is the more complete and better overall receiver. Jackson has better speed, is stronger, and runs better routes (although he needs to improve in the last area). Floyd might have better hands, but they both have good hands. They are both straight-line guys to some extent, but Floyd more so. Floyd has a lot of physical potential, so I'm not counting him out in the future ... but based on last year I'd say Jackson is more complete.

, I completely agree on almost all accounts.

Since you took issue with the last sample set being too small, let's broaden our horizons, shall we? Jackson caught a whopping 27 passes last year, as a 2nd-year player. In the last 10 years, 55 receivers caught between 20 and 35 passes in their 2nd NFL seasons. How did they fare in the following year?...Name Year Recs Yards YPC TDs

Brandon Jones 2006 27 384 14.2 4

Nate Washington 2006 35 624 17.8 4

Rashied Davis 2006 22 303 13.8 2

Roddy White 2006 30 506 16.9 -

Roscoe Parrish 2006 23 320 13.9 2

Vincent Jackson 2006 27 453 16.8 6

D.J. Hackett 2005 28 400 14.3 2

Devery Henderson 2005 22 343 15.6 3

Keary Colbert 2005 25 282 11.3 2

Michael Clayton 2005 32 372 11.6 -

Patrick Crayton 2005 22 341 15.5 2

Reggie Williams 2005 35 445 12.7 -

Wes Welker 2005 29 434 15.0 -

Derick Armstrong 2004 29 415 14.3 1

Doug Gabriel 2004 33 551 16.7 2

Kelley Washington 2004 31 378 12.2 3

Kevin Curtis 2004 32 421 13.2 2

Cedrick Wilson 2003 35 396 11.3 2

Darnerien McCants 2003 27 360 13.3 6

David Givens 2003 34 510 15.0 6

Donte Stallworth 2003 25 485 19.4 3

Jabar Gaffney 2003 34 402 11.8 2

Kelly Campbell 2003 25 522 20.9 4

Tim Carter 2003 26 309 11.9 -

Dante Hall 2002 20 322 16.1 3

Drew Bennett 2002 33 478 14.5 2

Santana Moss 2002 30 433 14.4 4

Scotty Anderson 2002 25 322 12.9 1

JaJuan Dawson 2001 22 281 12.8 1

Larry Foster 2001 22 283 12.9 -

MarTay Jenkins 2001 32 518 16.2 3

Ron Dugans 2001 28 251 9.0 2

Craig Yeast 2000 24 301 12.5 -

Donald Driver 2000 21 322 15.3 1

Macey Brooks 2000 26 216 8.3 -

Wane McGarity 2000 24 235 9.8 -

Bobby Shaw 1999 28 387 13.8 3

E.G. Green 1999 21 287 13.7 -

Patrick Johnson 1999 29 526 18.1 3

Tim Dwight 1999 32 669 20.9 7

Albert Connell 1998 28 451 16.1 2

Bill Schroeder 1998 31 452 14.6 1

Dedric Ward 1998 25 477 19.1 4

Derrick Mason 1998 25 333 13.3 3

Keith Poole 1998 24 509 21.2 2

Will Blackwell 1998 32 297 9.3 1

Bryan Still 1997 24 324 13.5 -

Charlie Jones 1997 32 423 13.2 1

Eddie Kennison 1997 25 404 16.2 -

Eric Moulds 1997 29 294 10.1 -

Freddie Solomon 1997 29 455 15.7 3

Karl Williams 1997 33 486 14.7 4

Muhsin Muhammad 1997 27 317 11.7 -

Stepfret Williams 1997 30 308 10.3 1

Terry Glenn 1997 27 431 16.0 2

Excluding the 2006 entrants [since they've yet to play Year N+1], how did this group fare?

Year N = 29 catches
Year N = 391 yards
Year N = 1.9 TDs
Year N+1 = 32 catches
Year N+1 = 464 yards
Year N+1 = 3 TDsOf the 49 receivers in the sample set:

Four (4) exceeded 1,000 yards receiving in Year N+1
Seven (7) exceeded 800 yards receiving in Year N+1
Six (6) exceeded 5 receiving TDs in Year N+1
Fourteen (14) exceeded 3 receiving TDs in Year N+1
As many receivers saw declines in their reception totals (24), as showed improvement (25)
Almost as many receivers saw declines in their yardage totals (23), as showed improvement (26)
Almost as many receivers saw declining TD totals (23), as showed improvement (26)
19 out of 49 improved in all three categories [39%]
7 out of 49 improved in two of three categories [14%]
26 out of 49 improved in at least two of three categories [53%]Looking at LHUCKS "yards per reception" subset...Vincent Jackson averaged 16.8 yards per reception last year. 12 receivers in this list averaged 16.0 yards per catch or better in Year N...let's see how they fared:

Receptions Year N = 27, Year N+1 = 34 [24% growth]
Yards Year N = 489, Year N+1 = 514 [5% growth]
TDs Year N = 2.9, Year N+1 = 2.0 [0% growth]
One (1) receiver gained 1,000+ yards in Year N+1 [8.3%]
One (1) receiver gained 800+ yards in Year N+1 [8.3%]
Six (6) receivers gained 450 yards or less in Year N+1 [50%]
Two (2) exceeded 5 TDs in Year N+1 [17%]
Three (3) exceeded 3 TDs in Year N+1 [25%]
As many saw declines (6) in receptions as improved (6)
As many saw declines (6) in yardage as improved (6)
As many saw fewer TDs (6) as improved or stayed the same (6)So again I'll ask, why the love for Vincent Jackson?

 

[LHUCKS]

So again I'll ask, why the love for Vincent Jackson?

Of those WRs that had the YPR that Jackson had, how many were slotted to be the #1 the following year?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

You'll notice those that actually watched all of the Chargers games last year(Gunz, Tremblay, Me etc.) are predicting a 900+ yard season, a lot of that is based on qualitative analysis and not the quantitative stats that you appear to rely on.

I didn't see MT's projection in his post. Dodds also watches the Chargers closely, and he has Jackson projected for 48/805/5.No one is saying Jackson will stay at 27/453/6. It seems like some people are falling into that "young player" + "increased opportunity" = double their stats! trap. I think that's a sound argument for players who clearly outperformed their limited role in the previous year (Brandon Marshall and Demetrius Williams come to mind from 2006), but Jackson performed like a guy who is a still a project, if a promising project. Will he "get it" in the offseason? Will he stop having costly drops? Will he run consistent routes? He could, but know that these are necessary conclusions if you are projecting Jackson to truly take the #1 role and run with it. Also what about this part of MTs post:

By the end of the season, any of those guys could be number one.

The point being, the Chargers WANT him to step up and be #1, but they have two WRs who are more dependable targets, and one WR who has just as much physical talent as Jackson. If Jackson continues to have lapses, another guy could easily step into that vacuum instead of him, or the Chargers could just have a WRBC, basically what they did list year. Jackson starting the season as the #1 seems just about certain, but whether he'll end up being the #1 is up to him, and far from certain. If he's the same WR he was last year, he won't be the #1 come December. Everyone in this thread projecting big numbers for Jackson are also projecting a decisive step forward in his development, and I don't know if that's a given.

 

[pk4239]

This is a tough one. I like Jackson and I think he will be of great help to the Chargers, but I am having difficultly building up a really strong fantasy case for him. I do think he will be the number 1 guy in San Diego this season, but if not these would be quite optimistic. :(

Targets: The SD WRs have averaged 220 targets between them as a group over the last three years (205, 244, 211). I don't see a big reason to alter the number. LT and AG have, and will, cut into the targets. Last year there was reall no number one receiver but in 2005 McCardell received 45% of the targets. In 2003 McCardell probably received about 50% of the targets, but the number is tough to quantify because he only played half of the season. Over the last eight games of the season and the their playoff game, Jackson average 5.67 targets a game. Over the season that would be 90 targets or 40% of the WR total, which seems about right. I could be persuaded to move the percent of targets up to 45% or 100 total targets, but for now I will compromise with myself and project 95 targets.

Receptons per target. Last year Jackson average .48 receptions per target. There are some nice posts above which lead me to believe that will improve, although I don't know how much. McCardell average 0.63 during the three seasons he was there, albeit at 12.75 YPC. I am going to target between 0.55 and 0.60 as the number. Based on 95 targets that is 55 receptions.

Yards per catch were 16.8 per reception last season. This will probably dip a bit this year, they usually do as receptions increase. Somewhere between 15 and 16 feels about right. At 55 receptions and 15.5 YPR total receiving yards projects to 850 yds.

TDs, as always, are difficult to project. Jakcson does look like he has the skills to be a red zone target and he pulled down 6 of the 9 TDs thrown to WRs last year. Unfortunately SD WRs don't score alot of TDs. Average TDs to WRs for the last three years was 11.3 (12,13,9). If VJ can grab close to 60% of the TDs like last year I could see him with 7 or 8 for the season. 7 feels about right but I think the number could easily drop to 4 and possibly be as high as 10.

So overall.

95 targets, 55 receptions, 850 yards, and 7 TDs.

 

[Jason Wood]

So again I'll ask, why the love for Vincent Jackson?

Of those WRs that had the YPR that Jackson had, how many were slotted to be the #1 the following year?

1) Why do you keep presuming VJ is slotted to be #1?2) By my count, 1, Terry Glenn

 

[H.K.]

I don't think it's a stretch at all to see Gates with 80 receptions, I don't have him projected for that, but it's not a stretch. Also, just because they're moving him around doesn't mean they'll increase his targets...targets are the main concern here as it relates to Jackson's opportunity.

I know I sound like a broken record, but that's obviously my issue with Jackson. I just don't see him getting the targets necessary to hit some of these projections. Using McCardell as a benchmark is not valid in my eyes because he attained his stats with a different QB and HC. Personally, I think the guy can play. I'll be watching him in pre-season to see how he is utilized, but today, I don't see him catching more than 55 passes. That's double what he did last year, too.

 

[LHUCKS]

I didn't see MT's projection in his post. Dodds also watches the Chargers closely, and he has Jackson projected for 48/805/5.

My projection is obviously agressive and it wont be the first or last time I'll disagree with Dodds on a projection.

By the end of the season, any of those guys could be number one.

The point being, the Chargers WANT him to step up and be #1, but they have two WRs who are more dependable targets, and one WR who has just as much physical talent as Jackson. If Jackson continues to have lapses, another guy could easily step into that vacuum instead of Jackson. Jackson starting the season as the #1 seems just about certain, but whether he'll end up being the #1 is up to him, and far from certain. If he's the same WR he was last year, he won't be the #1 come December.

I'm obviously stating that I like his chances to step up. I think there's a 90% chance he starts at WR for the Chargers when healthy.

 

[LHUCKS]

Personally, I think the guy can play. I'll be watching him in pre-season to see how he is utilized, but today, I don't see him catching more than 55 passes. That's double what he did last year, too.

Well, we're not that far off...15 receptions is substantial, but it's not like we're on opposite sides of the universe. I expect both Rivers and Jackson to progress based on what I saw last year. If Jackson is as explosive as he was last year they'll try to get him the ball more than 3 times a game IMHO.

 

[KING]

Davis was drafted to compete with Parker. Although the Bolts brass love Parker, he provides zero threat downfield so he becomes a huge liability when he drops balls (as he did in the NE game).

The Bolts desperately needed a burner on the outside to keep the safeties honest; Gates and VJax are as big and physical of a 1-2 receiver tandem as there is in the NFL. Opposing defenses were able to cheat up against those two b/c Parker didn't scare anyone deep. Davis is supposed to change that and the thinking is that both Gates and VJax will benefit from his presence even when he's not catching balls.

The biggest obstacle I see in VJax putting up Top 10 WR #'s is Philip Rivers. Rivers is right there with Drew Brees (just behind Manning and Brady) in terms of reading coverages correctly and throwing to the right receiver as dictated by the defensive alignment. Basically, he always takes what the defense gives him, and rarely locks onto and forces the ball to a receiver. When he does, AGates is his man.

I expect a lot more game like the last 4 weeks of the regular season from VJax. 60+ catches, ~ 1000 yrds, and 7-9 TDs.

oh brother, i guess it's all parkers fault

you sound like you're using a 2 year sample. the dude caught freakin 27 passes, 14 of which was in the last 4 weeks. so you derived all of this from a 4 game sample taken at the end of the season? did you ever think that jackson didn't scare anybody?

what other receiver with 30 catches in 2 years can we hype up? hey, lets do brandon jones next.

 

[LHUCKS]

what other receiver with 30 catches in 2 years can we hype up? hey, lets do brandon jones next.

Jones certainly has the opportunity if he can remain healthy...unfortunately for Jones VY is throwing the ball and Jones isn't as physically gifted as Jackson.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I don't think it's a stretch at all to see Gates with 80 receptions, I don't have him projected for that, but it's not a stretch. Also, just because they're moving him around doesn't mean they'll increase his targets...targets are the main concern here as it relates to Jackson's opportunity.

I know I sound like a broken record, but that's obviously my issue with Jackson. I just don't see him getting the targets necessary to hit some of these projections. Using McCardell as a benchmark is not valid in my eyes because he attained his stats with a different QB and HC. Personally, I think the guy can play. I'll be watching him in pre-season to see how he is utilized, but today, I don't see him catching more than 55 passes. That's double what he did last year, too.

Not only will Jackson's targets significantly increase (he's WR1 heading into '07 while he was WR3 at this point last offseason), I expect Charger WR targets to increase as a whole as well based on a couple of factors:1 - San Diego won't go 14-2, and they'll likely be playing from behind or in more closely contested games which require less ball control and more aggressive offensive play calling late in games.

2 - the leash is completely off of Philip Rivers. You won't see any more games of 11 total attempts (like Week 1 of '06) or 22 total attempts (when Cam Cameron put the shackles on Rivers and cost San Diego the Baltimore game). Not only should Rivers' total pass attempts increase, I'd surmise that Charger WRs will see a disproportionate increase in their targets compared to TEs and RBs. Reason being, Rivers should have far more confidence as a second year starter and will be looking for more "big plays" this season than last year. That being said, my somewhat conservative projection for VJax reflects my earlier contention that Rivers is VJax's biggest obstacle for big success; Rivers will still take what the defense gives him more often than not despite being more experienced and having a stronger comfort level.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Davis was drafted to compete with Parker. Although the Bolts brass love Parker, he provides zero threat downfield so he becomes a huge liability when he drops balls (as he did in the NE game).

The Bolts desperately needed a burner on the outside to keep the safeties honest; Gates and VJax are as big and physical of a 1-2 receiver tandem as there is in the NFL. Opposing defenses were able to cheat up against those two b/c Parker didn't scare anyone deep. Davis is supposed to change that and the thinking is that both Gates and VJax will benefit from his presence even when he's not catching balls.

The biggest obstacle I see in VJax putting up Top 10 WR #'s is Philip Rivers. Rivers is right there with Drew Brees (just behind Manning and Brady) in terms of reading coverages correctly and throwing to the right receiver as dictated by the defensive alignment. Basically, he always takes what the defense gives him, and rarely locks onto and forces the ball to a receiver. When he does, AGates is his man.

I expect a lot more game like the last 4 weeks of the regular season from VJax. 60+ catches, ~ 1000 yrds, and 7-9 TDs.

oh brother, i guess it's all parkers fault

you sound like you're using a 2 year sample. the dude caught freakin 27 passes, 14 of which was in the last 4 weeks. so you derived all of this from a 4 game sample taken at the end of the season? did you ever think that jackson didn't scare anybody?

what other receiver with 30 catches in 2 years can we hype up? hey, lets do brandon jones next.

you disagree with my contention that Charger opponents didn't respect the Chargers deep passing game?

 

[Despyzer]

So how is his situation this year different than McCardell's situation two years ago? LT and Gates were the top targets in the offense, and McCradell managed 70/917/9. Brees only threw for 3150 and 27 that year. Rivers actually threw for more yards and almost as many TDs last year.

why are you even trying to compare jackson to mccardell?

861 receptions, over 11,000 yards, 5 seasons 80+ catches > 30 career passes caught over 2 seasons

maybe one day jackson will be that good, but not now

Huh? Who was comparing McCardell to Jackson? Look back at the post that you clipped. The poster I was replying to was saying there is no room in SD for a WR to post good numbers. I pointed out that a WR just did it two years ago in the same system with a QB that produced about at the same level that Rivers did last year.Comparing their careers at this point is simply moronic and has nothing to do at all with how good either one of them are at this point in time. Jerry Rice had a much better career, but I would take Vincent Jackson over him today, and so would anyone with an ounce of football sense. Jackson is the #1 WR on the team that told McCardell to take a hike. It's not tough to figure out which one is better.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

just to add a little more edge to my skepticism on Jackson...

One of the things I look for in a WR are ball skills that make it look like they don't even have to think about catching the ball - like they were programmed to do it. There's a lot ofelements to this - whether they subtlely move their hands back as the ball arrives to absorb some of the force vs. rigidly holding their arms and hands out, whether they smoothly extend for the ball and bring it in, or jab at the ball, whether they jump to receive a pass or catch it in stride, whether they body catch or pluck the ball out of the air...

In general, all of these things come back to one question, Does the receiver seem like he is thinking when the ball arrives? Thinking = bad. Jackson strikes me as the kind of WR who still thinks the ball instead of letting repetition and instincts take over. I have seen very few WRs make the transition from unnatural to natural when it comes to ball skills.

 

[LHUCKS]

just to add a little more edge to my skepticism on Jackson...One of the things I look for in a WR are ball skills that make it look like they don't even have to think about catching the ball - like they were programmed to do it. There's a lot ofelements to this - whether they subtlely move their hands back as the ball arrives to absorb some of the force vs. rigidly holding their arms and hands out, whether they smoothly extend for the ball and bring it in, or jab at the ball, whether they jump to receive a pass or catch it in stride, whether they body catch or pluck the ball out of the air...In general, all of these things come back to one question, Does the receiver seem like he is thinking when the ball arrives? Thinking = bad. Jackson strikes as the kind of WR who still thinks the ball instead of letting repetition and instincts take over.

T.O. and Anquan Boldin also remind me of this.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm generally a fan of LHUCKS and Maurile's analysis, so this discussion has been fascinating for me because I'm not that high on Vincent Jackson right now. So to the discussion. If it helps us all move toward the proper risk/adjusted ranking for him, all the better.

Now, LHUCKS seems excited by VJ's workload in the final four games of the season...again I have to ask, WHY?

Over that span, his ONLY productive span of the year mind you...Jackson was:

Tied for the 35th most targeted receiver
46th in receptions
27th in yardsThis is supposed to be the subset we get all excited about looking ahead?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

just to add a little more edge to my skepticism on Jackson...One of the things I look for in a WR are ball skills that make it look like they don't even have to think about catching the ball - like they were programmed to do it. There's a lot ofelements to this - whether they subtlely move their hands back as the ball arrives to absorb some of the force vs. rigidly holding their arms and hands out, whether they smoothly extend for the ball and bring it in, or jab at the ball, whether they jump to receive a pass or catch it in stride, whether they body catch or pluck the ball out of the air...In general, all of these things come back to one question, Does the receiver seem like he is thinking when the ball arrives? Thinking = bad. Jackson strikes as the kind of WR who still thinks the ball instead of letting repetition and instincts take over.

T.O. and Anquan Boldin also remind me of this.

With T.O., its just concentration. There are plenty of plays where he looks completely natural catching the ball. Boldin doesn't really make me cringe too often when he catches the ball. He body catches sometimes, but is not an egregious offender in this area.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm generally a fan of LHUCKS and Maurile's analysis, so this discussion has been fascinating for me because I'm not that high on Vincent Jackson right now. So to the discussion. If it helps us all move toward the proper risk/adjusted ranking for him, all the better.

Now, LHUCKS seems excited by VJ's workload in the final four games of the season...again I have to ask, WHY?

Over that span, his ONLY productive span of the year mind you...Jackson was:

Tied for the 35th most targeted receiver
46th in receptions
27th in yardsThis is supposed to be the subset we get all excited about looking ahead?

It's not just that subset though...although I do appreciate the moxy.

 

[tommyGunZ]

just to add a little more edge to my skepticism on Jackson...

One of the things I look for in a WR are ball skills that make it look like they don't even have to think about catching the ball - like they were programmed to do it. There's a lot ofelements to this - whether they subtlely move their hands back as the ball arrives to absorb some of the force vs. rigidly holding their arms and hands out, whether they smoothly extend for the ball and bring it in, or jab at the ball, whether they jump to receive a pass or catch it in stride, whether they body catch or pluck the ball out of the air...

In general, all of these things come back to one question, Does the receiver seem like he is thinking when the ball arrives? Thinking = bad. Jackson strikes me as the kind of WR who still thinks the ball instead of letting repetition and instincts take over. I have seen very few WRs make the transition from unnatural to natural when it comes to ball skills.

This is highly, highly, highly speculative, IMO. I agree with much of what you're saying, but I haven't seen anything from Jackson that leads me to believe he is "unnatural" receiving the football.Slow-mo ~ the 30 second mark

But I'm a homer, so my shades are definitely tinted.

Side Note - USD HOTTIE talking Charger football at 1:20 mark - WOW

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

just to add a little more edge to my skepticism on Jackson...

One of the things I look for in a WR are ball skills that make it look like they don't even have to think about catching the ball - like they were programmed to do it. There's a lot ofelements to this - whether they subtlely move their hands back as the ball arrives to absorb some of the force vs. rigidly holding their arms and hands out, whether they smoothly extend for the ball and bring it in, or jab at the ball, whether they jump to receive a pass or catch it in stride, whether they body catch or pluck the ball out of the air...

In general, all of these things come back to one question, Does the receiver seem like he is thinking when the ball arrives? Thinking = bad. Jackson strikes me as the kind of WR who still thinks the ball instead of letting repetition and instincts take over. I have seen very few WRs make the transition from unnatural to natural when it comes to ball skills.

This is highly, highly, highly speculative, IMO. I agree with much of what you're saying, but I haven't seen anything from Jackson that lead me to believe he is "unnatural" receiving the football.Slow-mo ~ the 30 second mark

But I'm a homer, so my shades are definitely tinted.

Funny, because I would use that clip to cite my point. Shortening your stride and "feeling" the back of the end zone coming is one of those things I would classify as "natural WR skills". Jackson could have easily shortened his stride, or even done the good ole "dot the I". Also, watch the way he pulls the ball into his body when it was unnecessary - he already had two hands on it - of course that doesnt stop the ball from moving around a little even after Jackson has both hands on it. The kind of WRs I look for pluck the ball out of the air, and it stays still once it hits their hands - they also trust their hands. Maybe, just maybe, Jackson was thinking about not dropping the ball instead of being aware of the end line - pure speculation, but I remember thinking when that play happened, "it should have been easier for him to get both feet in".

 

[Jason Wood]

I don't think it's a stretch at all to see Gates with 80 receptions, I don't have him projected for that, but it's not a stretch. Also, just because they're moving him around doesn't mean they'll increase his targets...targets are the main concern here as it relates to Jackson's opportunity.

I know I sound like a broken record, but that's obviously my issue with Jackson. I just don't see him getting the targets necessary to hit some of these projections. Using McCardell as a benchmark is not valid in my eyes because he attained his stats with a different QB and HC. Personally, I think the guy can play. I'll be watching him in pre-season to see how he is utilized, but today, I don't see him catching more than 55 passes. That's double what he did last year, too.

Not only will Jackson's targets significantly increase (he's WR1 heading into '07 while he was WR3 at this point last offseason), I expect Charger WR targets to increase as a whole as well based on a couple of factors:1 - San Diego won't go 14-2, and they'll likely be playing from behind or in more closely contested games which require less ball control and more aggressive offensive play calling late in games.

2 - the leash is completely off of Philip Rivers. You won't see any more games of 11 total attempts (like Week 1 of '06) or 22 total attempts (when Cam Cameron put the shackles on Rivers and cost San Diego the Baltimore game). Not only should Rivers' total pass attempts increase, I'd surmise that Charger WRs will see a disproportionate increase in their targets compared to TEs and RBs. Reason being, Rivers should have far more confidence as a second year starter and will be looking for more "big plays" this season than last year. That being said, my somewhat conservative projection for VJax reflects my earlier contention that Rivers is VJax's biggest obstacle for big success; Rivers will still take what the defense gives him more often than not despite being more experienced and having a stronger comfort level.

That may be all well and good, but Norv Turner has a long history which paints a pretty clear picture. He believes in running the ball effectively and throwing off play action once you've established a running attack. In Turner's history as both an OC and head coach, his teams have varied greatly in their run/pass ratios...BUT, that's clearly born out of the team's ability to run the ball.When Turner's teams are able to run the ball, he simply doesn't call a lot of pass plays. This is fact.

In Turner's 16 seasons running NFL offenses, he has had a top-10 rushing offense FOUR times:

1992 Dallas -- 4th in rushing attempts, 12th in passing attempts [491]
1993 Dallas -- 6th in rushing attempts, 24th in passing attempts [475]
2002 Miami -- 1st in rushing attempts, 31st in passing attempts [455]
2003 Miami -- 8th in rushing attempts, 30th in passing attempts [450]

Average -- 467.75 passing attemptsCoincidentally, or not, the Chargers threw the ball 466 times last year. Unless you think Tomlinson and the Chargers ground game are going to cease being one of the league's best, there is no logical reason to think Rivers is going to attempt many more passes.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I don't think it's a stretch at all to see Gates with 80 receptions, I don't have him projected for that, but it's not a stretch. Also, just because they're moving him around doesn't mean they'll increase his targets...targets are the main concern here as it relates to Jackson's opportunity.

I know I sound like a broken record, but that's obviously my issue with Jackson. I just don't see him getting the targets necessary to hit some of these projections. Using McCardell as a benchmark is not valid in my eyes because he attained his stats with a different QB and HC. Personally, I think the guy can play. I'll be watching him in pre-season to see how he is utilized, but today, I don't see him catching more than 55 passes. That's double what he did last year, too.

Not only will Jackson's targets significantly increase (he's WR1 heading into '07 while he was WR3 at this point last offseason), I expect Charger WR targets to increase as a whole as well based on a couple of factors:1 - San Diego won't go 14-2, and they'll likely be playing from behind or in more closely contested games which require less ball control and more aggressive offensive play calling late in games.

2 - the leash is completely off of Philip Rivers. You won't see any more games of 11 total attempts (like Week 1 of '06) or 22 total attempts (when Cam Cameron put the shackles on Rivers and cost San Diego the Baltimore game). Not only should Rivers' total pass attempts increase, I'd surmise that Charger WRs will see a disproportionate increase in their targets compared to TEs and RBs. Reason being, Rivers should have far more confidence as a second year starter and will be looking for more "big plays" this season than last year. That being said, my somewhat conservative projection for VJax reflects my earlier contention that Rivers is VJax's biggest obstacle for big success; Rivers will still take what the defense gives him more often than not despite being more experienced and having a stronger comfort level.

That may be all well and good, but Norv Turner has a long history which paints a pretty clear picture. He believes in running the ball effectively and throwing off play action once you've established a running attack. In Turner's history as both an OC and head coach, his teams have varied greatly in their run/pass ratios...BUT, that's clearly born out of the team's ability to run the ball.When Turner's teams are able to run the ball, he simply doesn't call a lot of pass plays. This is fact.

In Turner's 16 seasons running NFL offenses, he has had a top-10 rushing offense FOUR times:

1992 Dallas -- 4th in rushing attempts, 12th in passing attempts [491]
1993 Dallas -- 6th in rushing attempts, 24th in passing attempts [475]
2002 Miami -- 1st in rushing attempts, 31st in passing attempts [455]
2003 Miami -- 8th in rushing attempts, 30th in passing attempts [450]

Average -- 467.75 passing attemptsCoincidentally, or not, the Chargers threw the ball 466 times last year. Unless you think Tomlinson and the Chargers ground game are going to cease being one of the league's best, there is no logical reason to think Rivers is going to attempt many more passes.

It's illogical to think that Norv Turner will throw the ball more with Philip Rivers than Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, and Brian Griese?