Players that you will reach/overpay for to have them on your team (1 Viewer)

[fruity pebbles]

I don't understand the love for Willie Parker. Yes, he had a good year last year. It was unexpectedly good. Then Cowher left, and was replaced by a head coach who likes to pass more. So naturally, you expect him to improve on his career year... ?

Pittsburgh had 523 pass attempts last year against 415 RB carries, that's after on 375 pass attempts and 483 RB carries in 2005. So Willie's "career year" came in the same year as a huge shift towards the pass. seems very possible he could improve.

That may be true but I highly doubt he ever sees more than the 340 carries he got last year.

 

[treat88]

Fred, the point is you didn't even know who the Steelers HC was until I told you.

You didn't even know that Arians was the OC, or that he OC'd the Browns 3 years ago until I told you.

You had no clue how he had done in Cleveland until wikipedia told you.

My original premise was that you didn't know what you were talking about with your reasoning for downgrading Willie.

I wasn't being intolerant I was stating a fact. That has clearly been proven.

In the process several very good arguments have been made for the case that FWP is amongst the safest of the 2nd tier RB's and actually demonstrates good potential to move into the first tier.

 

[nygiants56]

guys I'll overpay for:

QB:

Cutler, Stanton, Beck, Losman ( all look great in keeper leagues)

RB:

Ronnie Brown - the guy is going to be to this Miami offense, what SJax was to St Louis last season,i.e, lots of passes thrown his way. And, he'll get nearly 350 carries...Cam Cameron will try to use him like LT, jr. He is one guy not embroiled in a RBBC, and carries significantly MORE value and experience than other Rb's do,like Ced Benson, etc..

Travis Henry

MJD

I'd put Edgerrin James on this list,but I won't have to overpay for him, no one likes him as a fantasy RB, at least not as anything more than a #3RB. I think he's a solid #2 RB who,like Brown, is not embroiled in a RBBC and will easily see 335+ carries..

Michael Turner

Ladell Betts - I'm not a believer that Portis is back to where he was in 2005..

Lamont Jordan - too many people are writing this guy off, he's going to see a lot of action,esp in the beginning of the season,with Rhodes serving a 4-game suspension.

Sammy Morris - just have a hunch Maroney won't last the full season,without re-injuring that shoulder..

WRs:

DJ Hackett - SA is slipping, the team might need to throw quite a bit more than in previous years.

S. Holmes

Andre Johnson

Cotchery

Gonzalez( Colts)

Randy Moss - he's back, in a BIG way..people are letting him fly under the radar...he might lead the league in yards for a receiver, as well as TDs, and perhaps even receptions.

TE:

Cooley, Davis, Witten.

 

[coachjim]

Willie Parker - I think he will finish the season in the top 3Ahman Green - currently going in Round 8 I think he will put up RB2 numbers, would take him in round 5

I am drafting in the 6 hole of a standard perfromance league. I really want FWP because I own him in a dynasty league. That said I think it will go:LT, S Jax, LJ, Gore then if the guy in the 5 hole takes FWP I am really toying with the idea of taking Travis Henry. I think henry will have a big year this year. The only fly in the ointment is Shanny, you never know what lurks in that evil mnd of his.

 

[thebestupsman]

My guy is...... Brandon "The Steal Of The Draft" Jacobs. Jacobs is a 4th or 5th round pick. He will be a top 10 RB this season (IMO).

I have FWP as my 11th RB FWIW. Take him early if you feel the need.

 

[thecardiackid]

My guy is...... Brandon "The Steal Of The Draft" Jacobs. Jacobs is a 4th or 5th round pick. He will be a top 10 RB this season (IMO).I have FWP as my 11th RB FWIW. Take him early if you feel the need.

Paging H.K. - please report to the red courtesy phone...Overpay (redraft)QB - Cutler / Campbell (a little) / Schaub / BigBenRB - Norwood / D Williams / AD / T JonesWR - J Walker / Cotchery / A Johnson (tds should approach 10)TE - Whitten / H Miller

 

[1huskerfan]

Willie Parker - I think he will finish the season in the top 3Ahman Green - currently going in Round 8 I think he will put up RB2 numbers, would take him in round 5

I am drafting in the 6 hole of a standard perfromance league. I really want FWP because I own him in a dynasty league. That said I think it will go:LT, S Jax, LJ, Gore then if the guy in the 5 hole takes FWP I am really toying with the idea of taking Travis Henry. I think henry will have a big year this year. The only fly in the ointment is Shanny, you never know what lurks in that evil mnd of his.

Thats a tough one. I have a personal rule to never take a Denver RB before the 3rd. Targeting their RB2 and RB3 late can be great value picks.

 

[benbadman]

Regarding the FWP discussion, Steelers RBs have always been pretty money in fantasy. Barry Foster, Jerome Bettis, FWP. If I was in a redraft, and if LT LJ and SJ are off the board , I might have a hard time picking between Alexander (old stud), Parker (young stud) or Rudi (reliable 1200/12)

 

[chris1969]

In response to the original question, none. I'll be too busy collecting guys the idiots let fall to reach for any.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

This on a run oriented team with a new O-line coach who will instill accountability, lacking for years under Cowher. 3 O-lineman playing for a contract. Improved QB play and increased involvement by Willie in the passing game equals more opportunity, not less. Best run blocking TE in the game, now coupled with a mauler of a 3rd round pick.

I actually know quite a bit about Larry Zierline, as I talked with his son Lance some when I lived in Houston. What has Zierline every done as a coach that illustrates that he is good at the NFL level? Doesn't it seem reasonable that they will miss Grimm's prescence and input on the line (I realize he was assistant HC). Also, while Miller is very good, I would hesitate to say that he is the best run blocking TE in the game and to expect Spaeth to be a mauler this year simply because he is big is silly.

 

[treat88]

This on a run oriented team with a new O-line coach who will instill accountability, lacking for years under Cowher. 3 O-lineman playing for a contract. Improved QB play and increased involvement by Willie in the passing game equals more opportunity, not less. Best run blocking TE in the game, now coupled with a mauler of a 3rd round pick.

I actually know quite a bit about Larry Zierline, as I talked with his son Lance some when I lived in Houston. What has Zierline every done as a coach that illustrates that he is good at the NFL level? Doesn't it seem reasonable that they will miss Grimm's prescence and input on the line (I realize he was assistant HC). Also, while Miller is very good, I would hesitate to say that he is the best run blocking TE in the game and to expect Spaeth to be a mauler this year simply because he is big is silly.

Reasonable questions.A few thoughts.Porn aside, Zierlein did one heck of a job in Buff getting the talent there to play as well as they did. I keep using the words accountability and complacency. Opening up the competition for starting jobs and consequences for not performing to expectation are what Zierlein brings to the table. Cowher and staff had their boys and they were going to play no matter what. 06 was complacency personified by the Steelers coaching staff. Losing Grimm is addition by subtraction.Didn't Spaeth is good because he is big. I said he was good because prior to hurting his shoulder he dominated top level competition in college. It's not college anymore, but he has great technique and knows how to seal. He will produce out of the gate in this aspect of the game.I will rephrase Miller to an extent. Of the TE who represent a receiving threat, he is the best run blocker. Gates, Shockey, Witten etc don't hold his jock in this arena. There are better run blockers at the position who never release into the pattern.Sorry for all the hi jacking. I'm just sayin the questions surrounding FWP and significantly fewer than with other Tier 2 backs. With insight some of the questions are actually positives.

 

[Pygmy Marmoset]

You don't really want to debate Miller as the best run-blocking TE in the game. Spaeth is not in his league. May be in 3 years. Not yet. Will be better than 50% of the starting TE in the league at run blocking out of the chute.

Dunn? Graham? Brady?Miller's a solid blocking TE, but saying it like he's hands-down the best blocker in football is a bit much.

 

[BigOlBar]

Great thread except for the ad nauseum on FWP.

I am thinking about

T Henry over J Addai and R Johnson at the #9 spot

Why all the love for Cutler? Seems high risk.

V Jackson

J Kitna, although not sure I will have to over pay...

 

[Lash]

non-rook: Antonio Gates

rook: Robert Meachem

 

[DropKick]

In response to the original question, none. I'll be too busy collecting guys the idiots let fall to reach for any.

Don't get hung up on the word "overpay". There are players who will surprise and perform significantly than their average draft position suggests. Their true "value" is in how they actually perform compared to where you draft them. It is not where you draft them compared to their ADP.Nice idea for a post.Edited to add "Norwood". Obviously, there are many issues to shake out in Atlanta and it will be interesting to see where Norwood projects come September, but I think Atlanta will rebound minus Vick and would welcome Norwood's upside on my team.

 

[The Kansas Comet]

I would guess that Kitna or McNabb would be a player whom I would have to reach to get on my team. Probably Kitna more than McNabb, knowing some of the owners in my league.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Dynasty = AD. I did overpay for him this year, and have no regrets. I think he will be the starter sooner than later this year, and also see him as a definate top 5 back for the next 4-7 years.Of course, I am a little biased

I see a big year for Andre Davis too...

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I don't understand the love for Willie Parker. Yes, he had a good year last year. It was unexpectedly good. Then Cowher left, and was replaced by a head coach who likes to pass more. So naturally, you expect him to improve on his career year... ?

No. Let s/one else overspend. He'll disappoint.

Neither one of you has a clue what you are talking about.Do you just type to type?

you didn't even provide ONE ounce of analysis and you have the stones to throw this out. well done! There's a job waiting for you in the current administration methinks.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I don't understand the love for Willie Parker. Yes, he had a good year last year. It was unexpectedly good. Then Cowher left, and was replaced by a head coach who likes to pass more. So naturally, you expect him to improve on his career year... ?

No. Let s/one else overspend. He'll disappoint.

Neither one of you has a clue what you are talking about.Do you just type to type?

Here's what I like about your analysis. You typed "FWP", then listed several other players. No rationale, and no tolerance for opposing opinions. I dig your style, kid. Now, let me get back to what I was doing. I'm typing! I'm typing! This is so much fun.

No. No tolerance for stupidity.How can Tomlin like to pass more? He's been a DC until hired recently. If you can show me Tomlin's offensive play calling track record maybe you've got a point. You can't. Just a clue, he doesn't have one.If your talking about Arians, the new OC, and his season of play calling for the Browns. Okay. Apples to oranges talent wise though. Really has only publicly committed to using more 3 TE sets. Good for Willie not bad. 3-4 WR sets equal space for Willie to run.If you want to call that justification...that's your call. Doesn't work in the real world.How about a 25 y.o feature back with no challenge to evolve into RBBC, who in his second season posts 16 TD's. Would be 19 minus the fumblitis which is correctable. See Tiki. This on a run oriented team with a new O-line coach who will instill accountability, lacking for years under Cowher. 3 O-lineman playing for a contract. Improved QB play and increased involvement by Willie in the passing game equals more opportunity, not less. Best run blocking TE in the game, now coupled with a mauler of a 3rd round pick. The stars are aligned. It's an upward trending curve, not a career year.If you want justification for other picks just holler. Happy to educate willing students.Doubt you are though....kid.

sounds like a lot of question marks for a guy who's going in the middle of the first as it is. To "overpay for him" I think you take him 3? 4? Now put him up against those backs. Not even a question.

 

[Tick]

Ahman Green in the 4th round.

Proven back in a zone blocking scheme on a team that managed to make Domanick Davis an RB1.... yeah, I'll take that.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

How can Tomlin like to pass more? He's been a DC until hired recently. If you can show me Tomlin's offensive play calling track record maybe you've got a point. You can't. Just a clue, he doesn't have one.If your talking about Arians, the new OC, and his season of play calling for the Browns. Okay.

Touche. Can you tell me about the success Tomlin and Arians bring to the table? And help me understand why they'd be better than the hall of fame coach who just left. You seem to be predicting improvement in the running game. What has the running game looked like in Arians-coached NFL offenses? For example, Cleveland running backs combined for 1025 yards rushing last year. Is that why you're predicting Pittsburgh's run game to improve?

How about a 25 y.o feature back with no challenge to evolve into RBBC, who in his second season posts 16 TD's. Would be 19 minus the fumblitis which is correctable. See Tiki.

Did you hear that Tiki overcame fumblitis to become a top running back? So did I. You know why I heard about it? Because it's rare. Not everyone who fumbles will correct it.

This on a run oriented team with a new O-line coach who will instill accountability, lacking for years under Cowher. 3 O-lineman playing for a contract.

This is a team that lost a hall of fame head coach, hired a no-name, and that relied on a top O line for years. I think it's fair to give Tomlin a year to get his system in place. But you not only expect improvement, you expect the guys who played hard for Cowher in the past to suddenly feel accountable to Tomlin, and work hard to make sure they can come back and play with the new guy. That's a bit of a stretch.

Improved QB play and increased involvement by Willie in the passing game equals more opportunity, not less. Best run blocking TE in the game, now coupled with a mauler of a 3rd round pick. The stars are aligned. It's an upward trending curve, not a career year.

Ah yes, everything is great in Pittsburgh. Everyone will get better, especially the quarterback, and the running back who had his career year. The TE is the best. They have a rookie fullback, and he'll be the best. Everything is getting better.

If you want justification for other picks just holler. Happy to educate willing students.Doubt you are though....kid.

lol

Arians didn't coach the Browns last season. 2001-2003.

Prior to the Steelers, Arians spent three seasons (2001-2003) as the offensive coordinator for the Cleveland Browns. In 2002 under Arians' guidance, the Browns scored their most points since the 1987 season and also improved in virtually every major offensive category from the three years prior to his arrival.

I expect Ben to be better due to not headbutting an auto in the off-season.I expect the o-line to play for their next contract.You don't really want to debate Miller as the best run-blocking TE in the game. Spaeth is not in his league. May be in 3 years. Not yet. Will be better than 50% of the starting TE in the league at run blocking out of the chute.Steelers draft looks like defense, field position, and o-line. More predictive than anything else we have about Tomlin.Zierlein is an excellent o-line coach. Training camp battle for every position. Perform or sit.Ahman Green, Thomas Jones..many recent examples of overcoming the fumbles.Tomlin will motivate where Cowher was complacent.Cringe away. 3 TE and spread formations play to Willie's strengths. Pro-set and I formations don't. Understand football before commenting. It is a football board after all.

3 TE sets are not good for a speed back, but they are good for a power back. FWP needs to get lanes, not 8 guys in the box because of the design of the play.

 

[Ned]

lee evans

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Arians didn't coach the Browns last season. 2001-2003.

I'm sorry I didn't pay closer attention to Arians' impressive resume. During the 2001-2003 seasons, the Browns never managed to have a top 20 offense in the NFL, but they did manage to finish 27th and 30th. During his banner 2002 season, they were 21st. In 2001, the Browns' running backs combined for 1169 rushing yards and 8 TDs. Give that a second to sink in. That's not one guy, that's the whole team. But to be fair, they didn't have any running back talent.In 2002, they drafted a running back in the first round. William Green ran for 887 yards and 6 TDs. To be fair, again, he was a rookie. So obviously he should improve the next year. In 2003, they drafted another highly touted running back, Lee Suggs. They combined for 848 yards in 11 total games, although both were injured throughout the season. This was the closest Arians came to getting a 1000 yard season from his running back, and he managed to get 1670 from the RB corps - good for 20th in the NFL. Yes, Cleveland was less talented than Pittsburgh. And maybe William Green is not as talented as Willie Parker. But William Green was the first running back drafted in his class. He was supposed to be more talented than the untouted Parker. When one player exceeds expectations, and the other fails to meet them, it could be a case of bad scouting, or a case of the player just not being coachable. But you could also look at the coach who is supposed to develop that talent. And so far, Arians and his hasn't shown me as much as Cowher and co. Cowher and co. were successful in developing a relative unknown and getting him to average 100 yards and a TD per game. Arians was not successful in developing a first round talent. Maybe more three tight end sets would have helped Green. Maybe Arians has learned from his mistakes. But the Steelers aren't really more talented on offense this year than they were last year, their coaching has taken a step back, and Parker is coming off an unexpectedly good year. Even if Cowher were still there, I'd say there was a decent chance he regressed. The fact that they've changed coaches to a defensive minded coach, changed offensive coordinators to a guy who doesn't have a ton of experience and hasn't had success developing running backs, and who has been talking a lot about the passing game. Right now Parker is getting drafted seventh or eighth overall on average, ahead of players who run just as much, are as talented, are in similar situations, and have good offensive lines. I don't think his upside is higher than Rudi Johnson's, and if things break wrong for him I think he would have a worse year than if things broke wrong for Rudi. Same thing goes for Travis Henry and Joseph Addai. I understand that you feel differently. Good luck with that.

if you really want to get picky, william green's 2nd half in 02 was the most impressive stretch for a RB in Cleveland in a long time.

Yeah. Similarly Blanche is "the sexy one" on the Golden Girls.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

I don't get the Romo love. The guy was the most undeserving Pro Bowler ever.

In a twelve team league, I'd put him as a nice QB2.

 

[Angry Beavers]

should you really reach or overpay?

How about TARGET - that is a much better idea IMHO