Playoff lineup decisions-do you play it safe, or go for it? (1 Viewer)

[Bayhawks]

I'm in the semi-finals of my leagues playoffs (I know, week 17 Super Bowl, yeah, yeah). TD-heavy league; one TD equals 150 yards rushing or receiving. I have a choice at my flex position (3rd Rb or 3rd WR). I have the choice between two guys. One is very likely to get me 2-4 points, but it's very rare he will "go off" for much more. The other player is a hit-or-miss guy that usually gets 0-1 points or 10+.

What do the sharks do? Play the safe, "boring" guy, or go for the HR hitter?

 

[Modog814]

I think it depends on who you're playing. If you think your opponent has a much better team than yours or your matchup are bad (or he has good matchups) you might need to roll the dice to win.

 

[footballnerd]

This is the most creative WDIS thread I've seen so far. As tempting as Leon Washington is, hes a gamble. Seems like the risk reward for TDs in your league is far greater than others. You might want to look at the probability of players hitting the pay dirt rather than predicted yards. Just a thought. I'd definitely go with an RB for more redzone touches. Any fullbacks on your WW?

 

[Modog814]

This is the most creative WDIS thread I've seen so far. As tempting as Leon Washington is, hes a gamble. Seems like the risk reward for TDs in your league is far greater than others. You might want to look at the probability of players hitting the pay dirt rather than predicted yards. Just a thought. Any fullbacks on your WW?

That's exactly who I thought it was too.

 

[Bayhawks]

This is the most creative WDIS thread I've seen so far. As tempting as Leon Washington is, hes a gamble. Seems like the risk reward for TDs in your league is far greater than others. You might want to look at the probability of players hitting the pay dirt rather than predicted yards. Just a thought. I'd definitely go with an RB for more redzone touches. Any fullbacks on your WW?

It's not a WDIS-I specifically didn't name players I was choosing from or what their matchups were, b/c I know the shark pool isn't the place for one. The fact is-I lost to the team I'm playing this week twice this year (divisional foe) by a total of NINE POINTS! Both times, I made the wrong choice at one spot, which cost me the game. This game is obviously more important than the previous 2, so I was hoping to get some thoughts from sharks about which play (safe or risky) they use.BTW-the big play guy isn't Leon Washington, in fact, neither player is a RB

 

[hwjchim]

It all depends.

One thing to consider is this...

Just say you're in it week 17 and your qb is...Big Ben.

Obviously if Steelers wrapped up home court throughout playoffs, you won't see Ben out on the field as much

so in this case you'ld have to roll the dice with someone like Thigpen or Tavaris Jackson..depending on their matchup.

 

[Bayhawks]

It all depends.One thing to consider is this...Just say you're in it week 17 and your qb is...Big Ben.Obviously if Steelers wrapped up home court throughout playoffs, you won't see Ben out on the field as muchso in this case you'ld have to roll the dice with someone like Thigpen or Tavaris Jackson..depending on their matchup.

Right, I know that (i'm hoping I have that problem next week). Both the guys I'm considering will play the whole game this week (barring a mid-game injury), so it's not a matter of who will get more PT. In fact the "safe" play has the better match-up, but as I posted before, he probably wont' come up big, while the other guy might.

 

[Go DC Yourself]

One consideration is how volatile you other starters have been. If they have been consistent throw in the high upside guy. If you got this far because half your lineup goes off every week while the other half tanks, you might lean to starting the more consistent guy as your last starter.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Does describing the player not make this a WDIS thread? What if he just gave us the players team and his number? This is a WDIS wether you list the players name or not.

 

[Gordon Keith]

tough crowd...

 

[Bayhawks]

Does describing the player not make this a WDIS thread? What if he just gave us the players team and his number? This is a WDIS wether you list the players name or not.

How so? I'm not saying should I start Peyton Manning or Ken Dorsey. I'm asking for other FFers opinions on whether it is smarter to go with a low-risk, low-reward play, or a high-risk, high-reward play. That's FF discussion, not WDIS.

 

[PosterNutBag]

Does describing the player not make this a WDIS thread? What if he just gave us the players team and his number? This is a WDIS wether you list the players name or not.

Instead of name, he just used descriptions.....same thing, but more vague and creative. Should I start the more steady guy or the hit or miss guy? In all fairness, though, I would put this type of WDIS lower in priority when making my list of which WDIS threads to move to the Assisant Coach's forum

 

[Bayhawks]

One consideration is how volatile you other starters have been. If they have been consistent throw in the high upside guy. If you got this far because half your lineup goes off every week while the other half tanks, you might lean to starting the more consistent guy as your last starter.

Good point-I've been riding a bit of a hot streak, and I am tending to get solid performance from most of my starters, with a big week thrown in here and there. Maybe I should throw in the high upside guy and hope it pays off.

 

[Bayhawks]

Does describing the player not make this a WDIS thread? What if he just gave us the players team and his number? This is a WDIS wether you list the players name or not.

Instead of name, he just used descriptions.....same thing, but more vague and creative. Should I start the more steady guy or the hit or miss guy? In all fairness, though, I would put this type of WDIS lower in priority when making my list of which WDIS threads to move to the Assisant Coach's forum

I respect your opinion, but I don't agree with you. My interpretation of a WDIS is asking should I start player A over player B? Anyone who chooses to respond is doing so with knowledge of the player, his team, the matchup, weather, etc.How is the question I asked any different than debating over whether RB-RB is the right draft strategy? I wasn't asking for someone to set my line-up, rather to get insight about how others saw this type of situation. I don't frequent the Asst Coach forum b/c posts and responsed over there are rarely as well thought out or articulated as they can be here in the Pool.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Does describing the player not make this a WDIS thread? What if he just gave us the players team and his number? This is a WDIS wether you list the players name or not.

Instead of name, he just used descriptions.....same thing, but more vague and creative. Should I start the more steady guy or the hit or miss guy? In all fairness, though, I would put this type of WDIS lower in priority when making my list of which WDIS threads to move to the Assisant Coach's forum

I respect your opinion, but I don't agree with you. My interpretation of a WDIS is asking should I start player A over player B? Anyone who chooses to respond is doing so with knowledge of the player, his team, the matchup, weather, etc.How is the question I asked any different than debating over whether RB-RB is the right draft strategy? I wasn't asking for someone to set my line-up, rather to get insight about how others saw this type of situation. I don't frequent the Asst Coach forum b/c posts and responsed over there are rarely as well thought out or articulated as they can be here in the Pool.

You are asking advice on who you sould start, player A or player B, just because you left off their names doesnt mean its not a WDIS.

 

[Bayhawks]

Does describing the player not make this a WDIS thread? What if he just gave us the players team and his number? This is a WDIS wether you list the players name or not.

Instead of name, he just used descriptions.....same thing, but more vague and creative. Should I start the more steady guy or the hit or miss guy? In all fairness, though, I would put this type of WDIS lower in priority when making my list of which WDIS threads to move to the Assisant Coach's forum

I respect your opinion, but I don't agree with you. My interpretation of a WDIS is asking should I start player A over player B? Anyone who chooses to respond is doing so with knowledge of the player, his team, the matchup, weather, etc.How is the question I asked any different than debating over whether RB-RB is the right draft strategy? I wasn't asking for someone to set my line-up, rather to get insight about how others saw this type of situation. I don't frequent the Asst Coach forum b/c posts and responsed over there are rarely as well thought out or articulated as they can be here in the Pool.

You are asking advice on who you sould start, player A or player B, just because you left off their names doesnt mean its not a WDIS.

No I'm not. Read my original post again. I never said, "who do I start?" I very specifically asked what other guys thought about starting a "safe" guy vs a "risky" guy. It involves FF strategy, not WDIS.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Start Kevin Walter with confidence. That is all.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Does describing the player not make this a WDIS thread? What if he just gave us the players team and his number? This is a WDIS wether you list the players name or not.

Instead of name, he just used descriptions.....same thing, but more vague and creative. Should I start the more steady guy or the hit or miss guy? In all fairness, though, I would put this type of WDIS lower in priority when making my list of which WDIS threads to move to the Assisant Coach's forum

I respect your opinion, but I don't agree with you. My interpretation of a WDIS is asking should I start player A over player B? Anyone who chooses to respond is doing so with knowledge of the player, his team, the matchup, weather, etc.How is the question I asked any different than debating over whether RB-RB is the right draft strategy? I wasn't asking for someone to set my line-up, rather to get insight about how others saw this type of situation. I don't frequent the Asst Coach forum b/c posts and responsed over there are rarely as well thought out or articulated as they can be here in the Pool.

You are asking advice on who you sould start, player A or player B, just because you left off their names doesnt mean its not a WDIS.

No I'm not. Read my original post again. I never said, "who do I start?" I very specifically asked what other guys thought about starting a "safe" guy vs a "risky" guy. It involves FF strategy, not WDIS.

Then why include your situation at all?

 

[footballnerd]

In a TD heavy league like yours where it looks like you get 1pt/25yds, I think you gotta go with the guys most likely to get you TDs. Especially in comparison to your opponents number of players likely to score a TD. Now you just gotta determine which of your guys gets redzone looks more than the other.

 

[Bayhawks]

Does describing the player not make this a WDIS thread? What if he just gave us the players team and his number? This is a WDIS wether you list the players name or not.

Instead of name, he just used descriptions.....same thing, but more vague and creative. Should I start the more steady guy or the hit or miss guy? In all fairness, though, I would put this type of WDIS lower in priority when making my list of which WDIS threads to move to the Assisant Coach's forum

I respect your opinion, but I don't agree with you. My interpretation of a WDIS is asking should I start player A over player B? Anyone who chooses to respond is doing so with knowledge of the player, his team, the matchup, weather, etc.How is the question I asked any different than debating over whether RB-RB is the right draft strategy? I wasn't asking for someone to set my line-up, rather to get insight about how others saw this type of situation. I don't frequent the Asst Coach forum b/c posts and responsed over there are rarely as well thought out or articulated as they can be here in the Pool.

You are asking advice on who you sould start, player A or player B, just because you left off their names doesnt mean its not a WDIS.

No I'm not. Read my original post again. I never said, "who do I start?" I very specifically asked what other guys thought about starting a "safe" guy vs a "risky" guy. It involves FF strategy, not WDIS.

Then why include your situation at all?

Because it is a FF strategy that I am currently dealing with. Do you think that the people who engage in pre-season "who is worthy of the 1.1 pick" discussions AREN'T dealing with that particular situation?Look-I'm not trying to bust your (or anyone else's) chops. I purposely didn't name my players and didn't ask "who should I start" b/c I know that WDIS threads belong in the Asst Coach. I don't want anyone else to run my team, I just wanted to get opinions from someone who wasn't involved, b/c I felt like I could trust those responses to be unbiased. I legitimately wanted input from people about whether they would play it safe since it's one and done, or go for the big score. I felt that I would get better responses from the Shark Pool than the Asst Coach.

 

[Bayhawks]

In a TD heavy league like yours where it looks like you get 1pt/25yds, I think you gotta go with the guys most likely to get you TDs. Especially in comparison to your opponents number of players likely to score a TD. Now you just gotta determine which of your guys gets redzone looks more than the other.

Good advice-I used the Red Zone Targets offered here at Footballguys (one of many great tools-a subscription is a steal!) and found out that they have roughly the same amount of red zone targets, but one converts at a much higher rate. It's becoming much easier to play the "big-play" guy this week, rather than playing it safe.