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Podunker's early QB rankings, tiering, with draft strategy (1 Viewer)

podunker

Footballguy
Podunkers’ early rankings , tiering, with draft strategy comments

These are rankings are based on 2008 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings, based on 12 team leagues, with serpentine drafts. I’ll talk about some draft strategy as I go through the rankings. I’ve never done this before so hope you enjoy it, and it can help someone out. Constructive criticism is welcome.

My general QB strategy during drafts is to get a good quality starter that I can ride through the season. I’ve tried the QBBC strategy and don’t like it. It leaves too much room for error on picking the right QB for which week. It never fails the one on my bench outscores the one I have starting. I usually have enough to worry about in getting the right WR3/RB3 flex player, I don’t want to add to my headache. In my mind this year there are eight rock solid week to week starters, and five serviceable starters.

Tier 1

Brady

Peyton

Romo

Brees

Usually these guys are too expensive for my taste. Unless it’s 6 pts for passing TD’s. If I was drafting at the 12, 13 turn I might consider Brady. I would also look at Romo or Brees 3rd 4th turn, because Palmer and Big Ben will be gone for sure by the time it gets back to you in the 5th 6th turn. However the guy I really want is in this second tier, and he will probably be there.

Tier 2

Palmer

Hasselbeck

Roethlisberger

The fifth round is when I start to look serious at my QB. Palmer and Big Ben have ADP’s in the 4th , so who knows if they will fall to the fifth. Hasselbeck is the guy I’m targeting this year in a lot of my drafts. He will be there in the fifth.

Tier 3

McNabb

Anderson

I have these two in a tier by themselves for a reason. They are both risky picks in my mind. McNabb is the last of the solid week to week starters in my book. He could easily out perform several of the guys I have ranked ahead of him. If Hasselbeck is taken, I will take McNabb and be very happy. Anderson is on my no draft list at his current adp in the fifth round. He starts my serviceable QB1 five. He will probably end up being a solid starter all year long, but I’m hinky about picking him with just one year of success. He has a ton of weapons on and improving team so what I’m really hoping that someone reaches for him and pushes back Hass or McNabb. Instead of taking him in the fifth, I would probably opt to wait and pick one of the other four serviceable QB1’s in tier 4.

Tier 4

Eli Manning

Cutler

Bulger

Leinart

Once again, let me reiterate, I WANT a QB in the top three tiers preferably. However, I would take Eli, Cutler, or Bulger in the 7th round if I failed to get someone out of my top three tiers. Last resort, I would take Leinart in round 9 or 10 and immediately follow him up with a tier five guy if possible. I am going to take some heat with this Leinart ranking, but that’s part of making your own rankings and the fun of fantasy football in general. I think he gets all the stats Warner had last year. I could easily see him getting 250-280 pts, which makes him a top 10 QB in most leagues. Finally, I WILL have someone from the above tiers as my starting QB!

Tier 5

Rivers

Delhomme

Campbell

Garrard

Not much to say here. Some owners will be taking these guys as their starters. Campbell is the one that interests me the most with the new west coast offense they will be running. If I take Leinart, I’ll be targeting Rivers, Delhomme, and Campbell in the next round.

Tier 6

Young

Rodgers

Alex Smith

Schaub

Kitna

Probaby going to take some heat on these also. I think Rodgers and Alex Smith are both primed to break out, with Rodgers having much more weapons at his disposal, he has the best shot. Martz made a No. 1 QB out of Kitna, I think he can do the same with Smith. He will easily have over 3000 yards passing and sneak into the top 15. Kitna had 4000+ both years under Martz. 3500+ yards for Smith is not out of the question. Everyone in this tier is going in round 10 or so. Smith’s adp is round 17, he is an absolute steal after round 15 in my book, and most likely will be my QB2 in a lot of leagues this year.

Running Back Ranking To Follow!

 
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That's interesting. Brady, Manning, Romo, and Brees in the same tier.

Usually it goes like

1.Brady Manning

2.Romo

3.Brees

or

1. Brady

2. Manning Romo

3. Brees

What made you decide to put all 4 in the same tier?

 
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That's interesting. Brady, Manning, Romo, and Brees in the same tier.Usually it goes like1.Brady Manning2.Romo3.Brees or 1. Brady2. Manning Romo 3. BreesWhat made you decide to put all 4 in the same tier?
:excited: My 1st tier is Brady/Manning. Romo and Brees fall to tier 2. Aside from that, the OP is a good one.
 
I hate to nitpick but how can you have Bulger & Leinart rated so highly? Both are QB20-28 guys in most of the FBG projections. If you take either one of those guys before at least 15-18QBs come off the board, you are reaching *big time*. Your rankings also seem a bit low on Garrard, who is mostly a QB1 borderline guy.

Looking at this year's FF rankings (for redraft leagues), I think the value play at stud QB is getting a guy like Brees in the 4th (he's got 4 straight top10 seasons) because he can put together a QB1-QB2 season and wont cost you a 1st or 2nd rounder like Brady/Romo/Manning. That said, if I a solid WR2 type is on the board (Marshall, Holt, Holmes) in rd4 I probably grab them instead and hope to get a solid starter like Cutler/Garrard, or just grab a QBBC with 2 guys in the QB10-20 range like Eli, Rivers, Rodgers, Schaub, Campbell.

Don't overrate QB. In most 10 & 12 team leagues, having an edge at your RB2 and WR2/WR3 slot in the lineup is often better over the course of a season than overpaying for a top10-15 QB. Although in 6TD leagues, big game guys like Brees/Romo/Palmer will definitely win you some games when they are "on".

 
i think this was an excellant post and I agree with some of what you base your assessment on.....mostly that it is nice to just be able to plug someone in each week and not have to worry about a QBBC.....I know that means going against the VBD strategy sometimes and taking a QB a little too early, but I like to get a solid one and then hope that my VBD strategy and mistakes by my league mates can help me make up for it later in the draft....I hate trying to decide between QB matchups and as you stated, I often get it wrong.....with 6pt per TD leagues, I think having one of the top guys keeps you in it most of the season.........

 
That's interesting. Brady, Manning, Romo, and Brees in the same tier.
My tier 1 is mostly just to make it simple. Brady is in a tier by himself, then Manning/Romo, then Brees.
Looking at this year's FF rankings (for redraft leagues), I think the value play at stud QB is getting a guy like Brees in the 4th (he's got 4 straight top10 seasons) because he can put together a QB1-QB2 season and wont cost you a 1st or 2nd rounder like Brady/Romo/Manning. That said, if I a solid WR2 type is on the board (Marshall, Holt, Holmes) in rd4 I probably grab them instead and hope to get a solid starter like Cutler/Garrard, or just grab a QBBC with 2 guys in the QB10-20 range like Eli, Rivers, Rodgers, Schaub, Campbell.
I don't think you can get Brees in round 4, but if you can more power to you. FBG is a reference/tool I use during the season and year to help me make good decisions. I respect all the writers a lot, but what really makes them any more of an expert than me when it comes to projections etc. Making predictions, projections, and assumptions is what fantasy football is about,and that what's makes it fun for me. If I just used someone elses rankings all the time it would take some fun out of it for me. I get them wrong sometimes, but when I hit, it's SWEET!
 
Perhaps too many tiers. I think you could cut it down to about 4...I'll look at it more later and post some thoughts but after the top4-6 are off the board...8-20 I find little diffrences other than personal taste at times.

 
I would change this to 4 tiers, and I would move Leinart down to the new bottom, tier 4. In fact, I'm not touching him unless he completely wows me this preseason. I would much rather prefer grabbing Warner in the late rounds if I were to draft a qb from AZ.

I would combine Tier 3 and 4 to make a new Tier 3. I would move up Rivers and Garrad to the new Tier 3.

I would remove Alex Smith completely, as I will be surprised if he wins the starting qb job.

I think Big Ben is clearly the #5 qb after the top 4 and Palmer could easily be in Tier 3.

Right now, I think McNabb and Bulger have the most upside in Tier 3, but there's lots of risk involved with them as well.

Schaub and Rodgers have the most upside this season in Tier 4, imo.

Tier 1:

Brady

Peyton

Romo

Brees

Tier 2:

Big Ben

Hass

Palmer

Tier 3:

McNabb

Eli

Bulger

Cutler

Anderson

Rivers

Garrad

Tier 4:

Schaub

Rodgers

Campbell

Delhomme

Leinart

Young

Kitna

 
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I would change this to 4 tiers, and I would move Leinart down to the new bottom, tier 4. In fact, I'm not touching him unless he completely wows me this preseason. I would much rather prefer grabbing Warner in the late rounds if I were to draft a qb from AZ.I would combine Tier 3 and 4 to make a new Tier 3. I would move up Rivers and Garrad to the new Tier 3.I would remove Alex Smith completely, as I will be surprised if he wins the starting qb job.I think Big Ben is clearly the #5 qb after the top 4 and Palmer could easily be in Tier 3.Right now, I think McNabb and Bulger have the most upside in Tier 3, but there's lots of risk involved with them as well.Schaub and Rodgers have the most upside this season in Tier 4, imo.Tier 1:BradyPeytonRomoBreesTier 2:Big BenHassPalmerTier 3:McNabbEliBulgerCutlerAndersonRivers GarradTier 4:SchaubRodgersCampbellDelhommeLeinartYoungKitna
DM,You have 21 QBs in 4 tiers. Are you saying that on most of your rosters that you will not want to draft any of the other 11 starting QBs? Not saying that is good/bad, but curious. Nice Sig,MOP
 
Rodgers is the best value at QB in 08.
Based on what reasoning? What if he flops, what if he strains a muscle 2 game sinto the season...this guy has not been a model of health in the NFL, what makes him the best value?I think Jake Delhomme is going to be the Hasselbeck of 2008, but he coems with alot of risk too. I like Delhomme paired with a lot of other QBs that you can grab in the 5th-9th rounds...I think i will be one of those people in redrafts that likely takes a Garrard/Delhomme, Rivers/Delhomme, Bulger/Delhomme, Cutler/Delhomme...basically Delhomme is the anchor to pair up with, I just need to look at schedules and figure out what works best.2 good RB, an improved OL, Smith, Hackett, and Mush to throw to...I think Delhomme could post between 25-28 TD easily.
 
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Ministry of Pain said:
Dexter Manley said:
I would change this to 4 tiers, and I would move Leinart down to the new bottom, tier 4. In fact, I'm not touching him unless he completely wows me this preseason. I would much rather prefer grabbing Warner in the late rounds if I were to draft a qb from AZ.I would combine Tier 3 and 4 to make a new Tier 3. I would move up Rivers and Garrad to the new Tier 3.I would remove Alex Smith completely, as I will be surprised if he wins the starting qb job.I think Big Ben is clearly the #5 qb after the top 4 and Palmer could easily be in Tier 3.Right now, I think McNabb and Bulger have the most upside in Tier 3, but there's lots of risk involved with them as well.Schaub and Rodgers have the most upside this season in Tier 4, imo.Tier 1:BradyPeytonRomoBreesTier 2:Big BenHassPalmerTier 3:McNabbEliBulgerCutlerAndersonRivers GarradTier 4:SchaubRodgersCampbellDelhommeLeinartYoungKitna
DM,You have 21 QBs in 4 tiers. Are you saying that on most of your rosters that you will not want to draft any of the other 11 starting QBs? Not saying that is good/bad, but curious. Nice Sig,MOP
I just put this together using the qb's the OP listed. I haven't even looked at the schedules for any of these qb's, so it's definitely subject to change. Off the top of my head, guys like Trent Edwards, Kellen Clemens and Shaun Hill (if the latter 2 win the starting job) may make it onto my board.Every year there are several qb's who I leave off my board completely. For example, this year I'm definitely not drafting a qb off of the following teams: KC, Baltimore, Vikings, Chicago, Miami, Atlanta. My usual drating strategy involves me waiting on drafting my QB1 until I feel like I can get good value with a QB who has high QB1 potential, and then drafting my QB2 within my next couple of picks, as usually there's at least one QB2 available with QB1 upside. This has the added bonus of usually starting a run on the QB2's. I worked this strategy to perfection in one league last year where I got Big Ben and Farve in the middle rounds, and started a run on QB2's in the process. This year I want to end up with 2 QB's in the top 3 tiers, and not have to worry about picking from tier 4, let alone picking from the 11 other guys.
 
Schaub is about ten spots too low. He did very well as a first year starter and I see no reason to expect him to be any worse this year. If you take a closer look at his game logs and exclude the games in which he was limited due to injury, he had a good season in 2007. Now that he has a year of learning under his belt, I think he's a good bet to exceed expectations. I would lump him in with your tier four guys. I would also put Garrard in there due to his promising performance in 2007.

 
Nice post but I have to disagree with some of your tier 2 rankings here. I think putting Big Ben & Hass in tier 2 is a mistake this year. Seattle has been decimated on offense, who exactly will be catching all these TD's that will put Hass in tier 2, Bobby Engram? And I don't exactly see Julius Jones and TJ Duckett opening up the passing game. I think he is going to be drafted early because of his name this year and those who take him where he's currently going will be very disappointed.

As for Big Ben, the Steelers threw a ton in the red zone last year and I think you're going to see them go back to the ground game a bit. They had very few rushing TD's last year and that is unusual for that team, no chance Big Ben comes close to 30 td's again IMO, but he'll be drafted like he's going to throw 30.

 
Seattle has been decimated on offense, who exactly will be catching all these TD's that will put Hass in tier 2, Bobby Engram?
The same people that were catching them last year maybe
With Hackett gone & Branch out for most if not all year, that leaves Burleson & Engram. I don't see Hass cracking the top 8 with these guys as the only 2 real options.
 
Seattle has been decimated on offense, who exactly will be catching all these TD's that will put Hass in tier 2, Bobby Engram?
The same people that were catching them last year maybe
With Hackett gone & Branch out for most if not all year, that leaves Burleson & Engram. I don't see Hass cracking the top 8 with these guys as the only 2 real options.
You really think those two really helped last year?
 
Seattle has been decimated on offense, who exactly will be catching all these TD's that will put Hass in tier 2, Bobby Engram?
The same people that were catching them last year maybe
With Hackett gone & Branch out for most if not all year, that leaves Burleson & Engram. I don't see Hass cracking the top 8 with these guys as the only 2 real options.
You really think those two really helped last year?
They did catch 7 of Hasselbeck's TD's, and although that's not a lot, without these guys you're counting on Engram repeating his career year, Burleson catching 9 TD's again AND other unknows catching those 7 TD's that are now gone. Good luck with that.
 
Seattle has been decimated on offense, who exactly will be catching all these TD's that will put Hass in tier 2, Bobby Engram?
The same people that were catching them last year maybe
With Hackett gone & Branch out for most if not all year, that leaves Burleson & Engram. I don't see Hass cracking the top 8 with these guys as the only 2 real options.
You really think those two really helped last year?
They did catch 7 of Hasselbeck's TD's, and although that's not a lot, without these guys you're counting on Engram repeating his career year, Burleson catching 9 TD's again AND other unknows catching those 7 TD's that are now gone. Good luck with that.
:yes: I'm not counting on anything, but their 4 youngsters (Obo and the rest) could make an impact.
 
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disagree with a few rankings, but well thought out nonetheless

edit to add how i disagree:

I have Cutler as top 6 this year, so I'd have him in the second tier.

I don't have Hasselbeck nearly as high as you do, I'd drop him to fourth tier.

I'd drop Eli down a tier.

I'd bump Schaub and Rodgers up a tier.

everything else is not far off from my predictions.

 
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I hate to nitpick but how can you have Bulger & Leinart rated so highly? Both are QB20-28 guys in most of the FBG projections. If you take either one of those guys before at least 15-18QBs come off the board, you are reaching *big time*. Your rankings also seem a bit low on Garrard, who is mostly a QB1 borderline guy.
Just because you have someone ranked at 15, doesn't mean you draft him at 15.
 
I like Big Ben to repeat and have another similar year. The extra running game will help open up the pass and adding Sweed to healthy WR corp including Miller and thats a lot of weapons for him to use!

I also think Leinart can break out - whoever runs that offense is going to put up huge numbers - just grab Warner as a handcuff late.

 
Seattle has been decimated on offense, who exactly will be catching all these TD's that will put Hass in tier 2, Bobby Engram?
The same people that were catching them last year maybe
With Hackett gone & Branch out for most if not all year, that leaves Burleson & Engram. I don't see Hass cracking the top 8 with these guys as the only 2 real options.
You really think those two really helped last year?
Umm yeahPlus add in the fact that they couldnt run last year and this year added Jones & Duckett they are not going to run the 4 WR sets that they did last year. Hasslebeck wont be top 10 this year IMO
 
if I don't get one of the top 5 in my leagues this year....I am thinking about rolling with a strategy of a combination of 2 of these guys late

Leinart

Young

Smith

Rodgers

Kitna

 
Props to the OP for sparking lots of discussion. :P

"Iron sharpens iron" and you've done a great job of it. Will you be updating the rankings later on this summer? :lol:

 
Props to the OP for sparking lots of discussion. "Iron sharpens iron" and you've done a great job of it. Will you be updating the rankings later on this summer?
Thanks and yes I'll update ...............about the middle of preseason after I've watched a few games.
 
Probaby going to take some heat on these also. I think Rodgers and Alex Smith are both primed to break out, with Rodgers having much more weapons at his disposal, he has the best shot. Martz made a No. 1 QB out of Kitna, I think he can do the same with Smith. He will easily have over 3000 yards passing and sneak into the top 15. Kitna had 4000+ both years under Martz. 3500+ yards for Smith is not out of the question. Everyone in this tier is going in round 10 or so. Smith’s adp is round 17, he is an absolute steal after round 15 in my book, and most likely will be my QB2 in a lot of leagues this year.
I agree with your assessment of Rodgers,but I couldn't disagree more with Alex Smith.This guy may very well be on the bench come opening day.I can live with him as a QB3, but I've got him at QB2 in oneof my leagues, and I am not happy about it..
 
Podunkers’ early rankings , tiering, with draft strategy comments These are rankings are based on 2008 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings, based on 12 team leagues, with serpentine drafts. I’ll talk about some draft strategy as I go through the rankings. I’ve never done this before so hope you enjoy it, and it can help someone out. Constructive criticism is welcome. My general QB strategy during drafts is to get a good quality starter that I can ride through the season. I’ve tried the QBBC strategy and don’t like it. It leaves too much room for error on picking the right QB for which week. It never fails the one on my bench outscores the one I have starting. I usually have enough to worry about in getting the right WR3/RB3 flex player, I don’t want to add to my headache. In my mind this year there are eight rock solid week to week starters, and five serviceable starters. Tier 1BradyPeytonRomoBreesUsually these guys are too expensive for my taste. Unless it’s 6 pts for passing TD’s. If I was drafting at the 12, 13 turn I might consider Brady. I would also look at Romo or Brees 3rd 4th turn, because Palmer and Big Ben will be gone for sure by the time it gets back to you in the 5th 6th turn. However the guy I really want is in this second tier, and he will probably be there. Tier 2PalmerHasselbeckRoethlisbergerThe fifth round is when I start to look serious at my QB. Palmer and Big Ben have ADP’s in the 4th , so who knows if they will fall to the fifth. Hasselbeck is the guy I’m targeting this year in a lot of my drafts. He will be there in the fifth.Tier 3McNabbAndersonI have these two in a tier by themselves for a reason. They are both risky picks in my mind. McNabb is the last of the solid week to week starters in my book. He could easily out perform several of the guys I have ranked ahead of him. If Hasselbeck is taken, I will take McNabb and be very happy. Anderson is on my no draft list at his current adp in the fifth round. He starts my serviceable QB1 five. He will probably end up being a solid starter all year long, but I’m hinky about picking him with just one year of success. He has a ton of weapons on and improving team so what I’m really hoping that someone reaches for him and pushes back Hass or McNabb. Instead of taking him in the fifth, I would probably opt to wait and pick one of the other four serviceable QB1’s in tier 4. Tier 4Eli ManningCutlerBulgerLeinartOnce again, let me reiterate, I WANT a QB in the top three tiers preferably. However, I would take Eli, Cutler, or Bulger in the 7th round if I failed to get someone out of my top three tiers. Last resort, I would take Leinart in round 9 or 10 and immediately follow him up with a tier five guy if possible. I am going to take some heat with this Leinart ranking, but that’s part of making your own rankings and the fun of fantasy football in general. I think he gets all the stats Warner had last year. I could easily see him getting 250-280 pts, which makes him a top 10 QB in most leagues. Finally, I WILL have someone from the above tiers as my starting QB!Tier 5RiversDelhommeCampbellGarrardNot much to say here. Some owners will be taking these guys as their starters. Campbell is the one that interests me the most with the new west coast offense they will be running. If I take Leinart, I’ll be targeting Rivers, Delhomme, and Campbell in the next round. Tier 6YoungRodgersAlex SmithSchaubKitnaProbaby going to take some heat on these also. I think Rodgers and Alex Smith are both primed to break out, with Rodgers having much more weapons at his disposal, he has the best shot. Martz made a No. 1 QB out of Kitna, I think he can do the same with Smith. He will easily have over 3000 yards passing and sneak into the top 15. Kitna had 4000+ both years under Martz. 3500+ yards for Smith is not out of the question. Everyone in this tier is going in round 10 or so. Smith’s adp is round 17, he is an absolute steal after round 15 in my book, and most likely will be my QB2 in a lot of leagues this year. Running Back Ranking To Follow!
Nice rankings... I would slide Garrard into Tier 3 (at least Tier 4) and push Leinart down to Tier 5.Does your list indicate that the other 10 starting QB's would be in Tier 7 and last resort or not worth drafting?Tier 7Redman / RyanT.Smith / FlaccoT.Jackson / BootyGrossman / OrtonCroyle / ThigpenBeck / McCownClemens / PenningtonGarciaEdwardsRussell
 
Right now I wouldn't draft any of the remaining starters in a redraft league. I would make sure I got a backup QB from the one's I have tiered. Garcia, Jackson, whoever starts for the Jets and Bears might be a decent one week fill in. Those might be my next tier.But it's like playing roulette picking when they will have a good game. I'm a big fan of Troy Smith so I hope he does well. I still think the best thing to do is get a starter out of Tier 1,2,3 and a backup out of tier 4,5,6. Let some other owner do the QBBC thing!

 
That's interesting. Brady, Manning, Romo, and Brees in the same tier.
My tier 1 is mostly just to make it simple. Brady is in a tier by himself, then Manning/Romo, then Brees.
Looking at this year's FF rankings (for redraft leagues), I think the value play at stud QB is getting a guy like Brees in the 4th (he's got 4 straight top10 seasons) because he can put together a QB1-QB2 season and wont cost you a 1st or 2nd rounder like Brady/Romo/Manning. That said, if I a solid WR2 type is on the board (Marshall, Holt, Holmes) in rd4 I probably grab them instead and hope to get a solid starter like Cutler/Garrard, or just grab a QBBC with 2 guys in the QB10-20 range like Eli, Rivers, Rodgers, Schaub, Campbell.
I don't think you can get Brees in round 4, but if you can more power to you.

FBG is a reference/tool I use during the season and year to help me make good decisions. I respect all the writers a lot, but what really makes them any more of an expert than me when it comes to projections etc. Making predictions, projections, and assumptions is what fantasy football is about,and that what's makes it fun for me. If I just used someone elses rankings all the time it would take some fun out of it for me. I get them wrong sometimes, but when I hit, it's SWEET!
Drew Brees 4.10 here
 
Good discussion here podunker.

I love QB talk - it is pretty straight forward.

I completely agree with your tiering - this is also the second thread of yours where we were simpatico on the best value of the upper range guys, Hasslebeck (and to a lesser extent Mcnabb) here and Heap in the TE thread.

:bag:

 
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