Politico - The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

This strikes me as an absurd hypotheitical.

How so? 

Tim said he'd take Trump and a revitalized recovery and end to coronavirus.

Biden with a sluggish economy and coronavirus about like it is now doesn't seem impossible. 

Of course there are a zillion other possibilities. I just offered another option to what Tim suggested. 

 

[timschochet]

Not at all. Tim was pretty clear on the scenario in which he'd vote for Trump. 

This isn’t quite accurate. What I wrote is that I would trade for 4 more years of Trump if I knew what you described would happen. But that entails seeing the future. I would never vote for Trump since I can’t possibly know that outcome would occur and frankly I don’t expect it to under his leadership- particularly the part about coronavirus no longer being a concern. 

 

[The General]

They can be any choices you like. That was just what came to mind.

I'm sure most people would do a ton to have coronavirus completely eliminated. I thought maybe something more realistic like just getting it under control might make for a more realistic discussion. 

Ok I just thought those two choices you laid out were pretty contrived.

There is absolutely some strategic advantages for the Democrats if the economy is still in shambles and COVID is out of control in November. Acknowledging that isn’t awful it is just a reality.

Things improving by November doesn’t mean people will vote for Trump. We’ve seen how he reacts under crisis and it’s not good.

 

[Joe Bryant]

There is no scenario where I would vote for Trump.

None whatsoever.

Thanks. That's really all I was asking.

Tim said, " In fact, if you asked me right now, would I be willing to trade for another 4 years of Donald Trump in exchange for a revitalized economy and an end to the coronavirus, I would agree immediately; it’s a no brainer. "

I wondered how many people would agree with him. Clearly you don't. That's fine. It's what I was wondering. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Ok I just thought those two choices you laid out were pretty contrived.

There is absolutely some strategic advantages for the Democrats if the economy is still in shambles and COVID is out of control in November. Acknowledging that isn’t awful it is just a reality.

Things improving by November doesn’t mean people will vote for Trump. We’ve seen how he reacts under crisis and it’s not good.

Sure. I'm not sure a lot of thought was put into either choice. And they're certainly not related. Tim said he'd be willing to trade for another "4 years of Donald Trump in exchange for a revitalized economy and an end to the coronavirus, I would agree immediately; it’s a no brainer." I offered another combination that seems probably more likely in Biden plus a more limited recovery for both the economy and the virus. 

I do wonder how many Democrats would agree with you that there is absolutely some strategic advantages for the Democrats if the economy is still in shambles and COVID is out of control in November. 

 

[tommyGunZ]

Thanks. That's really all I was asking.

Tim said, " In fact, if you asked me right now, would I be willing to trade for another 4 years of Donald Trump in exchange for a revitalized economy and an end to the coronavirus, I would agree immediately; it’s a no brainer. "

I wondered how many people would agree with him. Clearly you don't. That's fine. It's what I was wondering. 

But Joe, tim's scenario is impossible. It literally does not exist; that offer cannot be made and cannot be guaranteed.  I think that's where you lose many of us.

 

[Joe Bryant]

But Joe, tim's scenario is impossible. It literally does not exist; that offer cannot be made and cannot be guaranteed.  I think that's where you lose many of us.

Thanks @tommyGunZ - I don't think any of this can be guaranteed in any way. I thought we were just offering hypothetical situations. I know that's all I was doing and I assume that's all Tim was doing. 

 

[Snotbubbles]

The economy doesn't matter to people who are going to vote for Trump no matter what or vote for Biden no matter what.

However, a strong economy come November for people who aren't at the extremes, IMO, means that more people will probably not exercise their right to vote (ie, metropolitan black voters) because they don't care what the final outcome is.  That would be much, much better for Trump since Biden needs those votes more than Trump does.    

 

[tommyGunZ]

There is absolutely some strategic advantages for the Democrats if the economy is still in shambles and COVID is out of control in November. Acknowledging that isn’t awful it is just a reality.

Right, but this is no different than every election in which good economy = generally good for the incumbent party. 

 

[The General]

Sure. I'm not sure a lot of thought was put into either choice. And they're certainly not related. Tim said he'd be willing to trade for another "4 years of Donald Trump in exchange for a revitalized economy and an end to the coronavirus, I would agree immediately; it’s a no brainer." I offered another combination that seems probably more likely in Biden plus a more limited recovery for both the economy and the virus. 

I do wonder how many Democrats would agree with you that there is absolutely some strategic advantages for the Democrats if the economy is still in shambles and COVID is out of control in November. 

Ok, thanks.

I guess I don’t know why the jump was made to make this trade where Trump equals we come out of this ok.

After watching this act for 3 years I don’t see how people trust this guy’s judgement. But I digress

To the second part that is just a fact (I think Trump is losing regardless). If this crisis isn’t improving the Prez, no matter who it would be, would be done.

 

[tonydead]

Why are these the 2 choices?

This is simply inane.

We've already done the tanked economy vs. Trump 4 more years and know how this forum feels.  Let's add on Covid death with the economy and really see how much people hate Trump.  The only people saying it's a crazy question are those that don't want to answer it.

 

[Sinn Fein]

We've already done the tanked economy vs. Trump 4 more years and know how this forum feels.  Let's add on Covid death with the economy and really see how much people hate Trump.  The only people saying it's a crazy question are those that don't want to answer it.

That is simply a lie.

I said its a crazy question, and I answered it.

 

[The General]

We've already done the tanked economy vs. Trump 4 more years and know how this forum feels.  Let's add on Covid death with the economy and really see how much people hate Trump.  The only people saying it's a crazy question are those that don't want to answer it.

The question was completely different than the poll and to me was more would you vote for Trump under this scenario. 

 

[tonydead]

That is simply a lie.

I said its a crazy question, and I answered it.

Sorry, missed that.  You'll take on many more Covid deaths and a tanked economy to take down Trump.  Got it.   Can you list the net positives in your preferred scenario?

 

[The General]

Right, but this is no different than every election in which good economy = generally good for the incumbent party. 

Yes. Exactly.

To acknowledge this is just recognizing a fact.

Republican “officials” and their political strategists are absolutely crapping their pants about the impact of this on the election.

 

[Sinn Fein]

The problem with the scenario is that it ignores reality and creates a false choice.

If a Genie popped out of a bottle and said - I will make 1 of two things happen:

1.  Trump elected, but covid wiped out, and economy back to Dec 2019 levels, or

2.  Biden wins, but Covid remains, and the economy is still in the tanks.

What do you choose?

At first blush, it looks like you are choosing Biden v. Healthy Country - and why do you hate America if you choose Biden?   

But, that ignores how this crisis escalated - poor planning, poor policy choices, and poor execution on a federal level by a Trump Administration.  Those problems continue to exist, even if the Genie makes covid magically go away.  So, you are trading one problem for a different problem - not the panacea that the question represents.

I would choose Biden, and a new future, over the known problems that Trump creates, 100% of the time, and I would know that I am acting in the best long-term interests of the country as a whole.

 

[tommyGunZ]

The problem with the scenario is that it ignores reality and creates a false choice.

If a Genie popped out of a bottle and said - I will make 1 of two things happen:

1.  Trump elected, but covid wiped out, and economy back to Dec 2019 levels, or

2.  Biden wins, but Covid remains, and the economy is still in the tanks.

What do you choose?

At first blush, it looks like you are choosing Biden v. Healthy Country - and why do you hate America if you choose Biden?   

But, that ignores how this crisis escalated - poor planning, poor policy choices, and poor execution on a federal level by a Trump Administration.  Those problems continue to exist, even if the Genie makes covid magically go away.  So, you are trading one problem for a different problem - not the panacea that the question represents.

I would choose Biden, and a new future, over the known problems that Trump creates, 100% of the time, and I would know that I am acting in the best long-term interests of the country as a whole.

Absolutely.  And it ignores the tail risks that still exist in the Magic Trump scenario; we still have 4 more years with the nuclear codes in the hands of a psychopath.  

 

[Sinn Fein]

Sorry, missed that.  You'll take on many more Covid deaths and a tanked economy to take down Trump.  Got it.   Can you list the net positives in your preferred scenario?

Too many to mention.

But lets start with just getting the ####### out of office.

Trump Administration ignored and/or cut pandemic planning.

Trump administration failed to take the lead in coordinating a response to the crisis.

Trump administration was actively adversarial with officials trying to deal with the crisis - with limited information and resources.

Trump has made, continues to make, and will make the situation worse by failing to bring people together towards a common goal.  Trump lives for chaos.  Chaos is not in anyone's best interest.

The problem here is not covid19 - the problem here is Trump.  I will feel safer, and more optimistic about the future for everyone, when he is out of office, and no longer creating chaos.

 

[tonydead]

Too many to mention.

But lets start with just getting the ####### out of office.

Trump Administration ignored and/or cut pandemic planning.

Trump administration failed to take the lead in coordinating a response to the crisis.

Trump administration was actively adversarial with officials trying to deal with the crisis - with limited information and resources.

Trump has made, continues to make, and will make the situation worse by failing to bring people together towards a common goal.  Trump lives for chaos.  Chaos is not in anyone's best interest.

The problem here is not covid19 - the problem here is Trump.  I will feel safer, and more optimistic about the future for everyone, when he is out of office, and no longer creating chaos.

Interesting.  So in this hypothetical, you have a choice to end Covid once and for all and you choose to keep it around.  You would choose to do what you accuse Trump of, purposely. 

 

[sho nuff]

I also think the poll will be brought up and used later to bash people.  Similar to the one about a recession.  Lost will be any nuance in the discussion.  If the poll favors "yes, Dems should be worried", the narrative will be pushed that Dems don't want a strong economy so they can get rid of Trump.  (Im not criticizing the poll here, don't take that wrong...its a topic worth discussing for sure)

So I voted on the fence...I think a giant boom would increase his chances.  That does not mean I am against improvements to the economy, its the result of that being Trump I am against.  

We've already done the tanked economy vs. Trump 4 more years and know how this forum feels.  Let's add on Covid death with the economy and really see how much people hate Trump.  The only people saying it's a crazy question are those that don't want to answer it.

About as suspected...this (and one of the other polls) will be spun no matter what the discussion was as you hate Trump enough to wish ill on people.

Despite the replies in here offering the nuance to the question.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Interesting.  So in this hypothetical, you have a choice to end Covid once and for all and you choose to keep it around.  You would choose to do what you accuse Trump of, purposely. 

Sure.  I guess.  I really have no idea what you are saying.  But, i view Trump as more dangerous to the country than covid19 - after all, I don't think the outcome would have been remotely as bad if Pence had been President.

So, why do you hate America (and Americans) so much, that you would want to continue the policies that led to this outcome?  Seems to be in poor taste.

 

[tonydead]

Sure.  I guess.  I really have no idea what you are saying.  But, i view Trump as more dangerous to the country than covid19 - after all, I don't think the outcome would have been remotely as bad if Pence had been President.

So, why do you hate America (and Americans) so much, that you would want to continue the policies that led to this outcome?  Seems to be in poor taste.

Simple.  If you believe Covid is going to continue it's destruction, as many people do as evident in the Covid thread, you choose to save those lives.  These viruses are generational, if that, so history is very unlikely to repeat itself in the next 4 years and this hypothetical let's you snap your fingers and make that all go away.  And the economy recovers.

The question is a very good one.  We know most everyone here are willing to sacrifice economy despite Trump.  It appears a lot of you are willing to sacrifice the economy over the Covid death toll.  It begs the question......a few of you are willing to sacrifice lives and economy.  

 

[Sinn Fein]

Simple.  If you believe Covid is going to continue it's destruction, as many people do as evident in the Covid thread, you choose to save those lives.  These viruses are generational, if that, so history is very unlikely to repeat itself in the next 4 years and this hypothetical let's you snap your fingers and make that all go away.  And the economy recovers.

The question is a very good one.  We know most everyone here are willing to sacrifice economy despite Trump.  It appears a lot of you are willing to sacrifice the economy over the Covid death toll.  It begs the question......a few of you are willing to sacrifice lives and economy.  

Seems to me you are looking at this backwards.  Voting for 4 more years of Trump risks many more lives than the deaths already caused under his watch by covid.

I suppose I get it - owning Libs is far more important than saving lives.  Its just not a choice I would make.

 

[roadkill1292]

Incidentally, this is why the betting odds and Vegas still has Trump as the favorite ( even though it’s closer to even than it was): because the public still thinks he will find a way to win again, and part of that is Democrats scared and Trump fans overconfident. Both sides seem to think Trump has this magic power to defy the polls, defy the odds. 
 

He doesn’t. Nobody does. Sure he can win again but the odds are even greater against this time than they were last time. When you’re the underdog you lose far more than you win. Trump may pull it out but it’s not reasonable IMO to expect him to do so. Expect him to lose. 

There's a lot of this but there's also concern that Republicans are going to resort to drastic measures to influence whose votes are more likely to be cast. Because of GOP history, that certainly worries Dems more. Trump voters are much more likely to support measures that reduce some kind of mythological fraud.

 

[Thunderlips]

Trump wasn't a guarantee or even an outside the margin of error favorite or underdog before the economy crashed and the pandemic. 

It will help him at his rallies........but if the Democrats want to play up how badly he's handled the Virus in television commercials.......he can't compete with that.

 

[tonydead]

Seems to me you are looking at this backwards.  Voting for 4 more years of Trump risks many more lives than the deaths already caused under his watch by covid.

I suppose I get it - owning Libs is far more important than saving lives.  Its just not a choice I would make.

Not in the scenario you were given, by Joe not me, if you get rid of the Covid.  What else is he going to do in the next 4 years to kill hundreds of thousand of people?  Mental gymnastics!

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Regardless of the poll results, the reflexive-defensive responses illuminate the fact that YES democrats are dreading this scenario.

 

[Opie]

Yes...but the overall point was not the worry that economy is good...the worry is Trump being easily re-elected.  That was the whole point of what he is saying.

That does not mean people aren't happy with good economic numbers or cheering for bad ones and for people to stay unemployed.

The article directly links the two.....the success of America and the reelection of President Trump....

Democrats believe that the successful rebound of America could help reelect President Trump and that's what they want to stop.
...THAT is what worries Democrats and THAT is what he is saying.

Stop one...and you diminish the chances of the other.

 

[sho nuff]

The article directly links the two.....the success of America and the reelection of President Trump....

Democrats believe that the successful rebound of America could help reelect President Trump and that's what they want to stop.
...THAT is what worries Democrats and THAT is what he is saying.

Stop one...and you diminish the chances of the other.

Actually the article quotes an unnamed person and says "this is my worry" without really alluding to all what he claimed his worry was.

Yes...the worry that better economy means Trump...that does not mean people are against an improving economy or worry about that...quite simply put...anything that leads to a Trump re-election is a bit of a worry.  That does not mean people are hoping for bad things so that Trump doesn't get re-elected.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

I think I am dreading the thought of the scenario painted in this article much more than a V shaped recovery.

• The Real Economic Catastrophe Hasn’t Hit Yet. Just Wait For August.
  

Note I am not agreeing with the article nor endorsing the author nor arguing that this is the most probable prediction nor anything other than trying to absorb the fears that are being presented.  Oh, and politically "all that matters is my team winning" would make this a "dream come true" but like I said I'm dreading even the thought that this nightmare scenario is even possible.  Don't even want to consider that it might be probable.   Not even sure that after hitting submit I will regret reading any replies that aren't full on rebuttals.