Poll: Did the owner with Peyton Manning win your championship last ye (1 Viewer)

[GreedoShotFirst]

I won with the combo of Rivers, Leinart at QB. Favre started a few games for me early on (and did well), but Rivers had the most starts for my team.

 

[hephner]

In my "main" league, (ie. most competitive), the Manning owner finished 3rd. The LT owner finished 2nd. And the winner had...

Rex Grossman at QB

He also had FWP & MJD at RB, and TO and Boldin at WR.

 

[GregR_2]

If we accept these poll results, then drafting Manning is definitely a "winning proposition". The expected winning% for any player's owners, if that player contributed very little to the championship, would be 8.3% (assuming a 12-team league). Manning owners, according to the poll, won 22+% of the time- at more than double the rate of some bum off the street. That suggests that taking Manning makes you more likely to win (rather than less likely, as a lot of people claim).Of course, the poll results have all sorts of caveats attached, not the least of which is an almost certain reporting bias (i.e. people are less likely to vote unless they already have strong opinions one way or another about Manning).

When has anyone ever claimed that having Manning on your team makes you less likely to win? As far as I've seen the only debate is over how early to take Manning. And that is something the poll doesn't shed any light on, right, since it doesn't differentiate leagues where he went 5th overall out of 12, and leagues where he went in the mid 2nd.

Lots of people claim that having Manning on your team makes you less likely to win, since it forces you to reach on RBs later in the draft. That's always the argument against drafting Manning- that your final team will be worse with Manning than it would be if you drafted a late-1st round RB instead. If we accept this poll data, then that argument is a load of bunk- a team with Manning that was forced to reach on later RBs has a better chance of winning than a team with, say, Rudi Johnson, so as a result, Manning is a much better draft pick than Rudi Johnson (despite the chorus of claims that Manning in the 1st is a stupid move).

Ok, that's what I thought you meant, and as I said this poll doesn't shed any light on that argument at all. For all we know every single team that won with Manning took him in the early 2nd. Or they could have all taken him at 1.4. Or they could have all traded for him from a team who had a bunch of bad injuries. Scientific method. The poll is not set up to isolate the question you are saying it answers.

 

[Hammerage]

If we accept these poll results, then drafting Manning is definitely a "winning proposition". The expected winning% for any player's owners, if that player contributed very little to the championship, would be 8.3% (assuming a 12-team league). Manning owners, according to the poll, won 22+% of the time- at more than double the rate of some bum off the street. That suggests that taking Manning makes you more likely to win (rather than less likely, as a lot of people claim).Of course, the poll results have all sorts of caveats attached, not the least of which is an almost certain reporting bias (i.e. people are less likely to vote unless they already have strong opinions one way or another about Manning).

Interesting...In over 40 different 12 man money leagues that I have done since Manning has been a first round pick the Manning owner has never won the league. These were all redraft. They have been 0/40.

 

[stevegamer]

2 Championship game losses for the Manning owner last season in 2 leagues for me. I was the one in the dynasty league.

Note that Manning in a dynasty league is a much different proposition - once you get him, he's money.

Manning in the first is very unlikely to bust, and that's a good thing. Many people refuse to consider him, so if you can out-draft & out-think those people in a redraft, it can work.

 

[ShaqAttaq]

league 1: LT owner #2, non peyton #1 (no gore)

League 2: LT owner #2, non peyton #1 (with gore)

league 3: LT owner eliminated in week 1 of playoffs, non peyton #1 (no gore)

 

[SSOG]

Ok, that's what I thought you meant, and as I said this poll doesn't shed any light on that argument at all. For all we know every single team that won with Manning took him in the early 2nd. Or they could have all taken him at 1.4. Or they could have all traded for him from a team who had a bunch of bad injuries. Scientific method. The poll is not set up to isolate the question you are saying it answers.

Obviously anything posted on these forums is going to have serious sample issues, since you can't ensure a representative population and you can't control for response bias. Still, if we're going to draw any conclusions at all from this data (whether we should be or not is up for debate), then we're probably best off just assuming that this is a representative population, so the ADP here conforms pretty closely to the ADP of the population at large.Again, though, the big problem is that you can't really draw any clean conclusions from this data based on all the noise. Still a very interesting thread.

If we accept these poll results, then drafting Manning is definitely a "winning proposition". The expected winning% for any player's owners, if that player contributed very little to the championship, would be 8.3% (assuming a 12-team league). Manning owners, according to the poll, won 22+% of the time- at more than double the rate of some bum off the street. That suggests that taking Manning makes you more likely to win (rather than less likely, as a lot of people claim).Of course, the poll results have all sorts of caveats attached, not the least of which is an almost certain reporting bias (i.e. people are less likely to vote unless they already have strong opinions one way or another about Manning).

Interesting...In over 40 different 12 man money leagues that I have done since Manning has been a first round pick the Manning owner has never won the league. These were all redraft. They have been 0/40.

Not all that surprising. Even if Peyton Manning had no positive effect on the team whatsoever, you would have only expected the Manning owners to have accounted for 3 wins out of the 40 leagues.

 

[Hammerage]

Interesting...

In over 40 different 12 man money leagues that I have done since Manning has been a first round pick the Manning owner has never won the league. These were all redraft. They have been 0/40.

Not all that surprising. Even if Peyton Manning had no positive effect on the team whatsoever, you would have only expected the Manning owners to have accounted for 3 wins out of the 40 leagues.

Actually is sort of suprising to me. I have been under the assumption that taking Manning in the 1st round is actually a negative from what I have seen over the years. That is one of the reasons I have never done it (ohhh.. maybe once ). This pole seems to indicate there should have been about 8 winners in my sample of 40 (actually looked back today and it is more than 40 teams). Maybe Manning winners weren't redraft, 12 man teams, were QB heavy or whatever... I don't know. As one of the earlier posters said this is not well controlled for. But the number of 40 actually carries some decent statistical power. I would suppose if I did a p value for the variation between the poll sample (22%=8 wins) and the expected level of wins if winning was totally random (3.3) it would be less than 0.05 suggesting that taking Manning early (1st round is am assuming and this is a big assumption) is actually benefitial. But looking at a sample of 40 teams where a Manning team never won would suggest just the opposite.

 

[stevegamer]

P. Manning in the first through hindsight has the advantage of being a total bust 0% of the time in the span covered.

One can argue if it was a good value, but he's been a solid starter all of those years.

So while randomness would expect 3.3%, a lot of the positive has to be from the lack of busting. And that's a big reason he has value. I suspect Tomlinson will be similar int he years he's been a first rounder - basically until they bust once, there stats will be above average.

 

[parrot]

No, I did not have Manning, or LT2.