Poll: What does Deshaun need to accomplish to justify his contract? (1 Viewer)

[-OZ-]

Sure but there is a reason teams value those 1st round picks so much. The most valuable players in the league predominately come from the 1st round. 

Just don’t forget, the price to move up in a draft, to get an unknown player with potential is often two firsts. 
in comparison (and ignoring the off field stuff) would it be better to trade 3 firsts for a top 5-10 26yo QB or the No. 20 overall pick and a fifth-rounder in 2021 (No. 164 overall) plus 2022 first- (1.07) and fourth-round picks for Justin fields?

i has completely forgotten about this one: Houston sends its first-round pick (No. 25) in 2017 and its 2018 first-rounder to Cleveland for the Browns' first-round pick (No. 12).

i wouldn’t want my team to trade for Watson but for the product on the field, it’s a fair deal. 

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

What's interesting is that, as fans, we seem to have different expectations as to what makes the deal worth it. 

I'm not sure why they'd bother if a title isn't expected, or at the very least reaching that game. It's not just a huge contract. It's guaranteed money, it's three 1st rounders, and it's only five years. Then he'll get to decide (again) where he wants to go. Acknowledging that this year has a lot of variables (possible suspension and rust), that's a four-year window, and half of those years the team has no first-rounder. 

Mahomes was a rich deal, but it was for 12 years, it's not all guaranteed, and no picks were involved (obviously). Since the contract, he's led them to another Super Bowl appearance. And, with salary inflation, they can actually afford to keep him the entire 12 years. Unless he complains himself off the team at some point in the future, he could play the entire productive part of his career in one city. Like Aaron Rodgers, sans drama. 

Mayfield is the same age as Watson. They both have one playoff win. Can't he get better, too? If that contract could be worth it without reaching a Super Bowl, couldn't they achieve that with Baker Mayfield, while keeping all that money and picks, and not tying themselves to one guy for five seasons?

Of course Watson is better than Mayfield. I just think this is a lot to pay without concrete expectations. Maybe he'll draw in great free agents who will take less to play with him. But if I was GM, I'd need more than "be entertaining." Dallas is entertaining, and I don't think Jerry is happy.   

There are 32 teams in the off-season that expect to win the Superbowl...minus the Fins who apparently want to pay coaches to throw games.  So yes, the expectation is to win a Superbowl. The reality is that this is still a game of 52 players playing another team of 52 players. Weird things happen. If you can consistently get your team in a position to be a high seed in the playoffs, that's about all you can do as ownership/GM. To get the rest of the way, a lot has to go right. Point being, Cleveland is putting their team in a position to win a Superbowl with Watson, something that Baker (for whatever reason) wasn't able to do.

 

[Grahamburn]

The insanity imo also lies in the fact it’s guaranteed even against suspension or civil prosecution.  Unreal. 

Which is why he chose the Browns. 

 

[Godsbrother]

If you can consistently get your team in a position to be a high seed in the playoffs, that's about all you can do as ownership/GM. 

While I agree i can tell you that does not last long with the fan base.

The Browns have made a move here that can only be justified by a Super Bowl appearance.  Making the playoffs and falling short of the Super Bowl will quickly get old with many fans. 

 It may not be fair but that is reality.  How do I know this?  Mike Tomlin is among the most winningest coaches in nfl history, has never had a losing season, and has his team in the playoff hunt every year yet many fans have wanted to run him out of town for years.

Believe me when I tell you the same thing will happen with Browns fans after a few years of making the playoffs but not making it to the Super Bowl 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What's interesting is that, as fans, we seem to have different expectations as to what makes the deal worth it. 

I'm not sure why they'd bother if a title isn't expected, or at the very least reaching that game. It's not just a huge contract. It's guaranteed money, it's three 1st rounders, and it's only five years. Then he'll get to decide (again) where he wants to go. Acknowledging that this year has a lot of variables (possible suspension and rust), that's a four-year window, and half of those years the team has no first-rounder. 

Mahomes was a rich deal, but it was for 12 years, it's not all guaranteed, and no picks were involved (obviously). Since the contract, he's led them to another Super Bowl appearance. And, with salary inflation, they can actually afford to keep him the entire 12 years. Unless he complains himself off the team at some point in the future, he could play the entire productive part of his career in one city. Like Aaron Rodgers, sans drama. 

Mayfield is the same age as Watson. They both have one playoff win. Can't he get better, too? If that contract could be worth it without reaching a Super Bowl, couldn't they achieve that with Baker Mayfield, while keeping all that money and picks, and not tying themselves to one guy for five seasons?

Of course Watson is better than Mayfield. I just think this is a lot to pay without concrete expectations. Maybe he'll draw in great free agents who will take less to play with him. But if I was GM, I'd need more than "be entertaining." Dallas is entertaining, and I don't think Jerry is happy.   

Hey, they’re going for it.  Maybe they’ll succeed. Maybe they won’t.

ARod just got a huge annual contract. His WR1 is currently Allen Lazard? Does GB need to win a SB to justify paying ARod that? 

Stafford just got a huge new deal. Do the Rams need to win another SB with Stafford to justify it? Or was that a “thank you for winning it last year” contract? 

If the Rams & Packers don’t win the SB, did they fail? Was all the $ they paid ARod & Stafford, respectively, a waste? They can’t all win the Super Bowl this year. Maybe it will be a team no one expects. Maybe it’ll be the Bucs again. Maybe the Bills.

If Allen & the Bills go on a tear & win it all, did every team that has a high dollar QB waste their $? 

Worrying about how much money a billionaire is willing to throw away to win a championship is a fool’s errand. It’s all Monopoly money to an NFL owner. And if it doesn’t work out, they’ll throw a mountain of money at another QB trying to win a championship. 240 million? Browns will make that back on jersey sales & $14 beers in 1 season. We’re just outraged because to us that’s a lot of money. 

To Jimmy Haslam that’s pocket change. He owns the Flying J truck stop chain - a fine establishment, btw. I stop there on all of my festival road trips. Clean bathrooms, quality merch. And they have those long pole window squeegies that make doing the windows on my work van super easy. Anyway, dude’s worth 3.8 Billion and making more every day. 

I agree with @Anarchy99about the 3x first rounders. As long as they can pay players to come to play there, it’s not that detrimental to their ability to win, and 1st round rookies don’t always work out. It’ll be interesting to see what the Texans do with those picks, which I expect to be low. 

Watson sure seems to give the Browns a better shot at a ring than Mayfield on paper.  Time will tell if it plays out like that. 

Other than the fact that it’s an iron clad 100% guaranteed contract, this isn’t all that outrageous to me. 

On a sociological level, Watson is extremely polarizing, and the allegations are slimy. There’s a lot of smoke, and I’m inclined to believe there’s some fire somewhere. Maybe that will become more clear as the civil suits proceed forward. It seems likely some evidence will become public that could make everyone uncomfortable.

Then I’m sure we’ll all revisit all of this.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

While I agree i can tell you that does not last long with the fan base.

The Browns have made a move here that can only be justified by a Super Bowl appearance.  Making the playoffs and falling short of the Super Bowl will quickly get old with many fans. 

 It may not be fair but that is reality.  How do I know this?  Mike Tomlin is among the most winningest coaches in nfl history, has never had a losing season, and has his team in the playoff hunt every year yet many fans have wanted to run him out of town for years.

Believe me when I tell you the same thing will happen with Browns fans after a few years of making the playoffs but not making it to the Super Bowl 

IMO this is half true.

If they make it to the playoffs but miss the Super Bowl because of Watson’s play, it will get old quickly and there will be backlash.

Say, Watson goes out and lays an egg with a backbreaking pick-6 late and close.

If they make it to the AFCC & lose on a KRTD, I don’t see the same level of outrage manifesting. 

 

[Godsbrother]

IMO this is half true.

If they make it to the playoffs but miss the Super Bowl because of Watson’s play, it will get old quickly and there will be backlash.

Say, Watson goes out and lays an egg with a backbreaking pick-6 late and close.

If they make it to the AFCC & lose on a KRTD, I don’t see the same level of outrage manifesting. 

All im saying is that after a couple of seasons making the playoffs but not the Super Bowl the fan base will get restless, the reason won’t matter

 

[Soulfly3]

Out of curiosity....

Anyone wanna compile a list of QBs that FAILED to "justify their record QB deal" over the past 20yrs? Heck, 10yrs?

I mean, why not? Let's have a laugh. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Out of curiosity....

Anyone wanna compile a list of QBs that FAILED to "justify their record QB deal" over the past 20yrs? Heck, 10yrs?

I mean, why not? Let's have a laugh. 

That’s basically my point above, yes.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

While I agree i can tell you that does not last long with the fan base.

The Browns have made a move here that can only be justified by a Super Bowl appearance.  Making the playoffs and falling short of the Super Bowl will quickly get old with many fans. 

 It may not be fair but that is reality.  How do I know this?  Mike Tomlin is among the most winningest coaches in nfl history, has never had a losing season, and has his team in the playoff hunt every year yet many fans have wanted to run him out of town for years.

Believe me when I tell you the same thing will happen with Browns fans after a few years of making the playoffs but not making it to the Super Bowl 

Steelers fans are just a different breed.  Half joking of course, but their zeal for the game is on another level from most fan bases.  Fans may call for Tomlin's head, but nobody in the organization gave it any thought.  For an organization like Pittsburgh, SBs are expected.  Cleveland, on the other hand...

Edit to add:  Point taken, though.  

 

[ratbast]

Edit: wrong topic

 

[humpback]

Hey, they’re going for it.  Maybe they’ll succeed. Maybe they won’t.

ARod just got a huge annual contract. His WR1 is currently Allen Lazard? Does GB need to win a SB to justify paying ARod that? 

Stafford just got a huge new deal. Do the Rams need to win another SB with Stafford to justify it? Or was that a “thank you for winning it last year” contract? 

If the Rams & Packers don’t win the SB, did they fail? Was all the $ they paid ARod & Stafford, respectively, a waste? They can’t all win the Super Bowl this year. Maybe it will be a team no one expects. Maybe it’ll be the Bucs again. Maybe the Bills.

If Allen & the Bills go on a tear & win it all, did every team that has a high dollar QB waste their $? 

Worrying about how much money a billionaire is willing to throw away to win a championship is a fool’s errand. It’s all Monopoly money to an NFL owner. And if it doesn’t work out, they’ll throw a mountain of money at another QB trying to win a championship. 240 million? Browns will make that back on jersey sales & $14 beers in 1 season. We’re just outraged because to us that’s a lot of money. 

To Jimmy Haslam that’s pocket change. He owns the Flying J truck stop chain - a fine establishment, btw. I stop there on all of my festival road trips. Clean bathrooms, quality merch. And they have those long pole window squeegies that make doing the windows on my work van super easy. Anyway, dude’s worth 3.8 Billion and making more every day. 

I agree with @Anarchy99about the 3x first rounders. As long as they can pay players to come to play there, it’s not that detrimental to their ability to win, and 1st round rookies don’t always work out. It’ll be interesting to see what the Texans do with those picks, which I expect to be low. 

Watson sure seems to give the Browns a better shot at a ring than Mayfield on paper.  Time will tell if it plays out like that. 

Other than the fact that it’s an iron clad 100% guaranteed contract, this isn’t all that outrageous to me. 

On a sociological level, Watson is extremely polarizing, and the allegations are slimy. There’s a lot of smoke, and I’m inclined to believe there’s some fire somewhere. Maybe that will become more clear as the civil suits proceed forward. It seems likely some evidence will become public that could make everyone uncomfortable.

Then I’m sure we’ll all revisit all of this.

Arod didn't cost his team 3 #1's+, and some people absolutely will be saying it wasn't worth it if they don't win a SB. Stafford's deal wasn't as large, and yes, the already won one so they'll get more leeway. They also didn't give up as much in the trade.

This isn't baseball so it isn't "just" the owner's money (and things like jersey sales are shared with the league). That contract absolutely will impact the rest of the roster for the next several years, and the lack of draft picks will as well. That doesn't make it a "bad" move, but it certainly comes with plenty of risk.

Put it this way, if they don't win a SB (or at least get there), there will be plenty of second guessing, and rightfully so.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Arod didn't cost his team 3 #1's+, and some people absolutely will be saying it wasn't worth it if they don't win a SB. Stafford's deal wasn't as large, and yes, the already won one so they'll get more leeway. They also didn't give up as much in the trade.

i addressed the picks. That’s super overblown. They’re likely to be extremely late 1sts since the Browns will likely be contending. Mountain out of a molehill. Bonus: they won’t be paying 3x 1st round rookie contracts.

This isn't baseball so it isn't "just" the owner's money (and things like jersey sales are shared with the league). That contract absolutely will impact the rest of the roster for the next several years, and the lack of draft picks will as well. That doesn't make it a "bad" move, but it certainly comes with plenty of risk.

meh. Again; this is super overblown. Teams generate revenue. Butts in seats generate millions. Watson at QB = butts in seats. My “jerseys & beer” comment was a generalization. The financials of the move are sound, or the team wouldn’t have made the move. 

Put it this way, if they don't win a SB (or at least get there), there will be plenty of second guessing, and rightfully so.

There will be 2nd guessing regardless, so that’s a given. They could win the next 2 SB’s and people will second guess the move. It’s human nature, and doubly so for sports fans.

the bottom line is that teams will over-pay for players and the price is only going to keep going up as the cap increases. I’d suggest getting used to it, because ain’t nobody got time or energy to be this outraged every time.

The only unusual thing is the guarantee - and I bet teams are freaking out about the future ramifications. 

 

[humpback]

i addressed the picks. That’s super overblown. They’re likely to be extremely late 1sts since the Browns will likely be contending. Mountain out of a molehill. Bonus: they won’t be paying 3x 1st round rookie contracts.

meh. Again; this is super overblown. Teams generate revenue. Butts in seats generate millions. Watson at QB = butts in seats. My “jerseys & beer” comment was a generalization. The financials of the move are sound, or the team wouldn’t have made the move. 

There will be 2nd guessing regardless, so that’s a given. They could win the next 2 SB’s and people will second guess the move. It’s human nature, and doubly so for sports fans.

the bottom line is that teams will over-pay for players and the price is only going to keep going up as the cap increases. I’d suggest getting used to it, because ain’t nobody got time or energy to be this outraged every time.

The only unusual thing is the guarantee - and I bet teams are freaking out about the future ramifications. 

You tried to equate ARod and Stafford to this deal, and the draft picks involved is one of multiple reasons why it's a bad comparison. You're also wrong that they're likely to be extremely late 1sts, considering we already know the one this year is #13 overall, and there's a decent chance Watson is suspended for a chunk of next season. For someone who argues that "money is super overblown", it's silly to argue that it's a "bonus" that they won't have to pay out 3 1st round rookie contracts, especially considering those are extremely team-friendly for the first 4 years at least. Outside of the Herschel Walker deal (and we all know how that worked out), this may be the largest haul in NFL history. Calling it super overblown is ridiculous IMO.

LOL. Yes, teams generate revenue, but much of that revenue is shared with the rest of the NFL, including "butts in the seats". Another LOL at "or the team wouldn't have made the move"- this is the Browns we're talking about remember. The salary cap implications are massive, you can't just shatter the record for guaranteed money and pretend it doesn't matter because the owner's rich. That's not how it works in the NFL, they don't have a blank check.

No one is outraged, I'm simply saying that there absolutely are downsides to this deal, despite you thinking they're "super overblown". It could easily backfire on them just from a football standpoint, never mind the off-field ramifications.

 

[Soulfly3]

You can nail 3 consecutive 1st round picks (nearly impossible) and it still won't come close to mattering as much as a franchise QB.

start and end. 

 

[matuski]

They offered it, he accepted it.  Justified.

 

[Ilov80s]

Just don’t forget, the price to move up in a draft, to get an unknown player with potential is often two firsts. 
in comparison (and ignoring the off field stuff) would it be better to trade 3 firsts for a top 5-10 26yo QB or the No. 20 overall pick and a fifth-rounder in 2021 (No. 164 overall) plus 2022 first- (1.07) and fourth-round picks for Justin fields?

i has completely forgotten about this one: Houston sends its first-round pick (No. 25) in 2017 and its 2018 first-rounder to Cleveland for the Browns' first-round pick (No. 12).

i wouldn’t want my team to trade for Watson but for the product on the field, it’s a fair deal. 

The bolded is the kicker here. 

 

[humpback]

You can nail 3 consecutive 1st round picks (nearly impossible) and it still won't come close to mattering as much as a franchise QB.

start and end. 

Unless, of course, any of those draft picks becomes a franchise QB. It's not like there isn't precedent here, with these same exact parties involved...

 

[Ilov80s]

You can nail 3 consecutive 1st round picks (nearly impossible) and it still won't come close to mattering as much as a franchise QB.

start and end. 

Unless one of those picks was a franchise QB

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You tried to equate ARod and Stafford to this deal, and the draft picks involved is one of multiple reasons why it's a bad comparison. You're also wrong that they're likely to be extremely late 1sts, considering we already know the one this year is #13 overall, and there's a decent chance Watson is suspended for a chunk of next season. For someone who argues that "money is super overblown", it's silly to argue that it's a "bonus" that they won't have to pay out 3 1st round rookie contracts, especially considering those are extremely team-friendly for the first 4 years at least. Outside of the Herschel Walker deal (and we all know how that worked out), this may be the largest haul in NFL history. Calling it super overblown is ridiculous IMO.

LOL. Yes, teams generate revenue, but much of that revenue is shared with the rest of the NFL, including "butts in the seats". Another LOL at "or the team wouldn't have made the move"- this is the Browns we're talking about remember. The salary cap implications are massive, you can't just shatter the record for guaranteed money and pretend it doesn't matter because the owner's rich. That's not how it works in the NFL, they don't have a blank check.

No one is outraged, I'm simply saying that there absolutely are downsides to this deal, despite you thinking they're "super overblown". It could easily backfire on them just from a football standpoint, never mind the off-field ramifications.

I didn’t “try” to equate anything. They’re QBs. They just got new contracts. The equation is there. It’s an to apples comparison. Either you’re going to be disappointed by all of the highly paid QBs if they don’t win the super bowl or you’re going to be disappointed by none of them if they don’t win the super bowl.  Watson shouldn’t be singled out just because the Browns paid more. That’s preposterous.

we can agree to disagree about the rest. It’s Monopoly money & they absolutely have a blank check. Obviously so, since they just handed Watson $240M of 100% guaranteed $. 

No one ever said it couldn’t backfire on them. Any deal can backfire on any team. And again: if it does, they’ll just back up the Brinks truck to the next QB & try again.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You can nail 3 consecutive 1st round picks (nearly impossible) and it still won't come close to mattering as much as a franchise QB.

start and end. 

I agree with this. 

 

[-OZ-]

The bolded is the kicker here. 

Sure. Yet multiple teams seem okay with it. 

 

[Sam Quentin]

Browns need to win the SB in the next two years.  After that, the loss of draft capital is going to start being felt.  

 

[habsfan]

I'm assuming the Browns are offsetting this deal with insurance on Watson right? If he gets hit by a bus tomorrow this deal gets pretty bad.

 

[Ilov80s]

Sure. Yet multiple teams seem okay with it. 

I am not sure about that. The Browns were out and then scrambled to get back in by making this massive offer. Is there evidence any other team was willing to match the picks, money and contract structure? 

 

[humpback]

I didn’t “try” to equate anything. They’re QBs. They just got new contracts. The equation is there. It’s an to apples comparison. Either you’re going to be disappointed by all of the highly paid QBs if they don’t win the super bowl or you’re going to be disappointed by none of them if they don’t win the super bowl.  Watson shouldn’t be singled out just because the Browns paid more. That’s preposterous.

we can agree to disagree about the rest. It’s Monopoly money & they absolutely have a blank check. Obviously so, since they just handed Watson $240M of 100% guaranteed $. 

No one ever said it couldn’t backfire on them. Any deal can backfire on any team. And again: if it does, they’ll just back up the Brinks truck to the next QB & try again.

You're missing a word there, but assuming you meant it's "apples to apples" you're incorrect. For starters, the money is very different and the draft pick compensation is very, very different. One also literally just won the SB. Way more money, way more mortgaging the future with draft picks, way less proven track record, way more off field issues. Your comparison is preposterous.

There's nothing to disagree on with the money, once again you're just simply wrong. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You're missing a word there, but assuming you meant it's "apples to apples" you're incorrect. For starters, the money is very different and the draft pick compensation is very, very different. One also literally just won the SB. Way more money, way more mortgaging the future with draft picks, way less proven track record, way more off field issues. Your comparison is preposterous.

There's nothing to disagree on with the money, once again you're just simply wrong. 

You have your opinion & I have mine. I think you’re wrong too. 

And there is, “simply” or otherwise.

Have a nice day. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I'm assuming the Browns are offsetting this deal with insurance on Watson right? If he gets hit by a bus tomorrow this deal gets pretty bad.

I know nothing about insurance like that. I would love to see what insurance like that would cost. 

 

[Ilov80s]

The talk about value of 1st rounders and teams mostly missing got me to notice something. The Chargers are either really smart or have been on a heater. In the last 6 years, they have gotten the following players in the 1st round:

Herbert- has all the makings of a HOF QB

Bosa- premier edge rusher 

Derwin James- been unlucky with health but he is an All Pro when on the field

Slater- only 1 season but he sure looks like a franchise OT

Mike Williams- not as good as the previous four but he’s contributed and even got a second deal 

This is clearly an exception and I’m not saying the Browns picks are going to turn into the next Herbert, Slater and Bosa. I just thought the success of the Chargers in the draft was noteworthy.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I am not sure about that. The Browns were out and then scrambled to get back in by making this massive offer. Is there evidence any other team was willing to match the picks, money and contract structure? 

I don’t think so, but Mayfield & his agent tweeting irreconcilable differences might have helped them to  push their chips all-in. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The talk about value of 1st rounders and teams mostly missing got me to notice something. The Chargers are either really smart or have been on a heater. In the last 6 years, they have gotten the following players in the 1st round:

Herbert- has all the makings of a HOF QB

Bosa- premier edge rusher 

Derwin James- been unlucky with health but he is an All Pro when on the field

Slater- only 1 season but he sure looks like a franchise OT

Mike Williams- not as good as the previous four but he’s contributed and even got a second deal 

This is clearly an exception and I’m not saying the Browns picks are going to turn into the next Herbert, Slater and Bosa. I just thought the success of the Chargers in the draft was noteworthy.

Browns draft picks are likely to be later than say, Bosa who went 3rd overall. 

That’s relevant here. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Browns need to win the SB in the next two years.  After that, the loss of draft capital is going to start being felt.  

I know everyone gets so concerned about "draft capital" and how valuable draft picks are. I already posted first round picks for CLE over the years, but let's did a little deeper. Here are all the Browns draft picks that were in the Top 100 since 2011. That's 45 players. The last two columns are the number of Pro Bowl selections and years as a starter on the Browns.

Year Pick Name Pos PB Starter
2021 26 Greg Newsome DB 0 0
2021 52 Owusu-Koramoah LB 0 0
2021 91 A Schwartz WR 0 0
2020 10 Jedrick Wills T 0 2
2020 44 Grant Delpit DB 0 0
2020 88 Jordan Elliott DT 0 0
2020 97 Jacob Phillips LB 0 0
2019 46 Greedy Williams DB 0 1
2019 80 Sione Takitaki LB 0 1
2018 1 Baker Mayfield QB 0 4
2018 4 Denzel Ward DB 2 4
2018 33 Austin Corbett C 0 3
2018 35 Nick Chubb RB 3 4
2018 67 Chad Thomas DE 0 0
2017 1 Myles Garrett DE 3 5
2017 25 Jabrill Peppers DB 0 2
2017 29 David Njoku TE 0 2
2017 52 DeShone Kizer QB 0 1
2017 65 Larry Ogunjobi DT 0 3
2016 15 Corey Coleman WR 0 2
2016 32 Emmanuel Ogbah DE 0 3
2016 65 Carl Nassib DE 0 1
2016 76 Shon Coleman T 0 1
2016 93 Cody Kessler QB 0 1
2016 95 Xavier Cooper DT 0 0
2016 99 Joe Schobert LB 1 3
2015 12 Danny Shelton DT 0 3
2015 19 Cameron Erving C 0 1
2015 51 Nate Orchard DE 0 1
2015 77 Duke Johnson RB 0 0
2014 8 Justin Gilbert DB 0 0
2014 22 Johnny Manziel QB 0 0
2014 35 Joel Bitonio G 4 7
2014 71 Chris Kirksey LB 0 2
2014 94 Terrance West RB 0 2
2013 6 B Mingo DE 0 1
2013 68 Leon McFadden DB 0 0
2012 3 T Richardson RB 0 1
2012 22 Brandon Weeden QB 0 1
2012 37 Mitch Schwartz T 0 4
2012 87 John Hughes DT 0 0
2012 100 Travis Benjamin WR 0 1
2011 21 Phil Taylor DT 0 2
2011 37 Jabaal Sheard DE 0 3
2011 59 Greg Little WR 0 3


Of all those picks, only 3 players made it to a second contract. Only 4 players really went on to be very productive (Garrett, Ward, Chubb, and Bitonio). Even if we leave out how valuable a franchise QB is not even in his prime, but even if the Browns kept all their picks, the huge probability is they would not have developed into much. Draft picks are essentially lottery tickets. The point in trading multiple future picks for an established player is you know what to expect from the established player.

Sure, Watson may not play as well as he did in HOU. He may get suspended. He may have another off-field incident. But in today's game, teams need at least a Top 10 QB if they expect to win consistently. At some point, all the money CLE is paying Watson will become an issue. That's should be a bigger concern than giving up draft picks. Unless the Browns used those picks and found a franchise QB, they would have needed to hit on all three first round picks to come close to what a franchise QB brings in value.

 

[Soulfly3]

Unless, of course, any of those draft picks becomes a franchise QB. It's not like there isn't precedent here, with these same exact parties involved...

Unless one of those picks was a franchise QB

I dont see one in the draft the next 2 years, personally... defintely not this year, anyways... next year MAYBE, but trhe qb landscape doesnt look too obvious in college these days

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I dont see one in the draft the next 2 years, personally... defintely not this year, anyways... next year MAYBE, but trhe qb landscape doesnt look too obvious in college these days

Not this year, but 2023 Bryce Young has that potential. And Stroud is looking decent but I need to see another season from him. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Browns draft picks are likely to be later than say, Bosa who went 3rd overall. 

That’s relevant here. 

Likely but it’s the Browns. They somehow always find a way to a top 5 pick. All it takes is Watson to get hurt one year and they are immediately in danger for a double digit loss season. Heck Watson could be suspended 10 games next year and they could be picking a lot higher than one might think in 2023. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Likely but it’s the Browns. They somehow always find a way to a top 5 pick. All it takes is Watson to get hurt one year and they are immediately in danger for a double digit loss season. Heck Watson could be suspended 10 games next year and they could be picking a lot higher than one might think in 2023. 

That. Agree about 2023. Occurred to me right after I replied. Brisket could keep the seat warm enough to be a mid-rounder still. Should get 2 free wins against the Steelers at least.  

 

[Ilov80s]

I dont see one in the draft the next 2 years, personally... defintely not this year, anyways... next year MAYBE, but trhe qb landscape doesnt look too obvious in college these days

You are probably right for this year. I can’t even comment on next year since some of the best prospects haven’t been the guys pegged at such coming into their final season (Burrow, Kyler, Wilson, Baker, Mac)

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Browns draft picks are likely to be later than say, Bosa who went 3rd overall. 

That’s relevant here. 

Yes. Picking in the middle of the first round isn't the same as picking in the top 10. No sure things in that range for the most part. 

 

[Ilov80s]

That. Agree about 2023. Occurred to me right after I replied. Brisket could keep the seat warm enough to be a mid-rounder still. Should get 2 free wins against the Steelers at least.  

The division is tough. Burrow and Lamar. Steelers are a QB away from being really good. Ravens and Steelers are two of the most consistently well run teams. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I know everyone gets so concerned about "draft capital" and how valuable draft picks are. I already posted first round picks for CLE over the years, but let's did a little deeper. Here are all the Browns draft picks that were in the Top 100 since 2011. That's 45 players. The last two columns are the number of Pro Bowl selections and years as a starter on the Browns.

Year Pick Name Pos PB Starter
2021 26 Greg Newsome DB 0 0
2021 52 Owusu-Koramoah LB 0 0
2021 91 A Schwartz WR 0 0
2020 10 Jedrick Wills T 0 2
2020 44 Grant Delpit DB 0 0
2020 88 Jordan Elliott DT 0 0
2020 97 Jacob Phillips LB 0 0
2019 46 Greedy Williams DB 0 1
2019 80 Sione Takitaki LB 0 1
2018 1 Baker Mayfield QB 0 4
2018 4 Denzel Ward DB 2 4
2018 33 Austin Corbett C 0 3
2018 35 Nick Chubb RB 3 4
2018 67 Chad Thomas DE 0 0
2017 1 Myles Garrett DE 3 5
2017 25 Jabrill Peppers DB 0 2
2017 29 David Njoku TE 0 2
2017 52 DeShone Kizer QB 0 1
2017 65 Larry Ogunjobi DT 0 3
2016 15 Corey Coleman WR 0 2
2016 32 Emmanuel Ogbah DE 0 3
2016 65 Carl Nassib DE 0 1
2016 76 Shon Coleman T 0 1
2016 93 Cody Kessler QB 0 1
2016 95 Xavier Cooper DT 0 0
2016 99 Joe Schobert LB 1 3
2015 12 Danny Shelton DT 0 3
2015 19 Cameron Erving C 0 1
2015 51 Nate Orchard DE 0 1
2015 77 Duke Johnson RB 0 0
2014 8 Justin Gilbert DB 0 0
2014 22 Johnny Manziel QB 0 0
2014 35 Joel Bitonio G 4 7
2014 71 Chris Kirksey LB 0 2
2014 94 Terrance West RB 0 2
2013 6 B Mingo DE 0 1
2013 68 Leon McFadden DB 0 0
2012 3 T Richardson RB 0 1
2012 22 Brandon Weeden QB 0 1
2012 37 Mitch Schwartz T 0 4
2012 87 John Hughes DT 0 0
2012 100 Travis Benjamin WR 0 1
2011 21 Phil Taylor DT 0 2
2011 37 Jabaal Sheard DE 0 3
2011 59 Greg Little WR 0 3


Of all those picks, only 3 players made it to a second contract. Only 4 players really went on to be very productive (Garrett, Ward, Chubb, and Bitonio). Even if we leave out how valuable a franchise QB is not even in his prime, but even if the Browns kept all their picks, the huge probability is they would not have developed into much. Draft picks are essentially lottery tickets. The point in trading multiple future picks for an established player is you know what to expect from the established player.

Sure, Watson may not play as well as he did in HOU. He may get suspended. He may have another off-field incident. But in today's game, teams need at least a Top 10 QB if they expect to win consistently. At some point, all the money CLE is paying Watson will become an issue. That's should be a bigger concern than giving up draft picks. Unless the Browns used those picks and found a franchise QB, they would have needed to hit on all three first round picks to come close to what a franchise QB brings in value.

This could also be spun as: Cleveland makes lots of really bad decisions. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

This could also be spun as: Cleveland makes lots of really bad decisions. 

Which means they were probably screwed no matter what they did.

 

[Anarchy99]

This could also be spun as: Cleveland makes lots of really bad decisions. 

Certainly, the Browns made some bad draft choices, but going back 10 years for all teams the miss rate will be almost as high. It's really hard to end up with impact players, especially at QB.

 

[-OZ-]

I am not sure about that. The Browns were out and then scrambled to get back in by making this massive offer. Is there evidence any other team was willing to match the picks, money and contract structure? 

just that this went on for days. Seemed longer with multiple teams who had allegedly made accepted offers. Contract structure May have been the deal sealer. 

I dont see one in the draft the next 2 years, personally... defintely not this year, anyways... next year MAYBE, but trhe qb landscape doesnt look too obvious in college these days

honest question, do you watch college ball? It might just be that he’s in our backyard but when a first year starter wins the Heismann, first QB in Alabama history to do so, you can guarantee he’ll be getting a LOT of attention. Most likely the 1.01. Stroud and Malik Cunningham will have their fans too. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

i addressed the picks. That’s super overblown. They’re likely to be extremely late 1sts since the Browns will likely be contending. Mountain out of a molehill. Bonus: they won’t be paying 3x 1st round rookie contracts.

meh. Again; this is super overblown. Teams generate revenue. Butts in seats generate millions. Watson at QB = butts in seats. My “jerseys & beer” comment was a generalization. The financials of the move are sound, or the team wouldn’t have made the move. 

There will be 2nd guessing regardless, so that’s a given. They could win the next 2 SB’s and people will second guess the move. It’s human nature, and doubly so for sports fans.

the bottom line is that teams will over-pay for players and the price is only going to keep going up as the cap increases. I’d suggest getting used to it, because ain’t nobody got time or energy to be this outraged every time.

The only unusual thing is the guarantee - and I bet teams are freaking out about the future ramifications. 

If Watson gets suspended for even “only” 4 games that’s a 4 game hole (not that they would necessarily lose every game) maybe one more Week where Watson is a bit rusty - in a stacked AFC that may be too much to make it to the playoffs so I’m not sure the 2023 pick is a lock to be late by any means.

 

[Anarchy99]

If Watson gets suspended for even “only” 4 games that’s a 4 game hole (not that they would necessarily lose every game) maybe one more Week where Watson is a bit rusty - in a stacked AFC that may be too much to make it to the playoffs so I’m not sure the 2023 pick is a lock to be late by any means.

I guess it depends what we think will happen next year. IMO, there are now so many good / competitive teams in the AFC that I think we will see fewer teams with great records. The best record int he league could be 11-12 wins and lots of teams will take turns beating each other up. With the West being a potential blood bath, that probably make BUF the favorite to get the one bye. Cleveland won 8 games without Watson last year. I guess we need to know how many game he will miss and against which opponents. CLE might not be any better and could end up with 8-9 wins next season. But I doubt that puts them in Top 10 draft pick territory.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If Watson gets suspended for even “only” 4 games that’s a 4 game hole (not that they would necessarily lose every game) maybe one more Week where Watson is a bit rusty - in a stacked AFC that may be too much to make it to the playoffs so I’m not sure the 2023 pick is a lock to be late by any means.

Yeah, that was mentioned after I posted & I agree. If it’s. 6-8 game suspension it could be tough - but Jacoby Brisket isn’t terrible, but certainly lowers their chances to win.

i figure the picks as 15-> at worst. 

But you right. They could go 2-4 on. 6-game absence, and no guarantee Watson doesn’t sprain a [insert body part] or just be rusty AF after a year layoff. I concede that. 

 

[Soulfly3]

honest question, do you watch college ball? 

A fair amount, and think I have a decent eye as well (at least for qb and wr). Like I said, likely too early to say about next year, but no one screams can't miss as of now. And this year's class doesnt have a single true first rounder. 

Doesn't mean both classes won't produce absolute NFL studs, just none look it as of yet. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Yeah, that was mentioned after I posted & I agree. If it’s. 6-8 game suspension it could be tough - but Jacoby Brisket isn’t terrible, but certainly lowers their chances to win.

i figure the picks as 15-> at worst. 

But you right. They could go 2-4 on. 6-game absence, and no guarantee Watson doesn’t sprain a [insert body part] or just be rusty AF after a year layoff. I concede that. 

To me, most of this is noise. Watson could get hurt, just like any other player. There is nothing to show that Watson is more of a health risk than any other QB or key player. He has six months to learn the playbook, get back in shape, and get reacclimated to playing football. IMO, the bigger issue is whether the front office and coaches can do their jobs properly. They can still make roster moves (sign FAs, make more trades, pick up guys once they are cut, and draft players) to help the team. Just like in HOU, if the organization is incompetent, that doesn't mean the QB is. I think expecting this radical turnaround this year is asking too much, but overall I expect the Browns to field a better product (what that gets them for a record is hard to tell).

 

[-OZ-]

A fair amount, and think I have a decent eye as well (at least for qb and wr). Like I said, likely too early to say about next year, but no one screams can't miss as of now. And this year's class doesnt have a single true first rounder. 

Doesn't mean both classes won't produce absolute NFL studs, just none look it as of yet. 

Totally agree about this year. There are no “can’t miss” prospects ever. But Young is almost, if not totally, on par with Trevor heading into his junior year. 
 

Off subject but: 

…Or Any Price For Bryce. He’d be in the Trevor Lawrence category,” Kiper stated. “Guaranteed No. 1 pick, generational talent. 

“He’s gonna be talked about the same way as a Trevor Lawrence was. He’s drawing comparisons to Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers already.”

Kiper comparing Young to some of the best quarterbacks in the league may feel lofty, but he believes the Alabamastar is extraordinarily similar to one superstar. Evidently, the ESPN NFL Draft guru favors the comparisons between Young and Seattle Seahawks star Russell Wilson.

https://www.on3.com/college/alabama-crimson-tide/news/mel-kiper-jr-puts-bryce-young-in-lofty-category-in-2023-nfl-draft-class-alabama-crimson-tide-nick-saban-trevor-lawrence-heisman-trophy/

 

[humpback]

You have your opinion & I have mine. I think you’re wrong too. 

And there is, “simply” or otherwise.

Have a nice day. 

Watson's contract is for far more guaranteed money, they gave up far more draft picks to get him, the other two each have a SB ring and he does not, there absolutely is a salary cap in the NFL, and Watson is under investigation for being a perve while the others are not. All facts. If that's "apples to apples" to you, sure, by all means let's agree to disagree.