portis vs. LJ (1 Viewer)

[moderated]

LJ- LisFrank

Portis - No LisFrank

Portis in a landslide.

 

[Statler & Waldorf]

Portis would be my pick as well. I think the west coast offense that Zorn is bringing in will benefit Portis and I read on the Redskins website that he's taking on more of a leadership role and hanging around Redskins Park (under the request of the coaches) trying to encourage players to buy into the system. I think the start of the year will be a little bumpy and erratic, but once it all gets rolling, I think he'll be putting up top 5 numbers.

I'm not paying too high of a price on LJ though. A great line can make a good RB great and I think we've seen that with what Priest and LJ did in the past. Plus, one other thing that helped his cause was that he always ran angry. I don't think he runs with that intensity anymore. That's just speculation on my part though so don't tear me apart on that.

 

[greenf7cat]

LJ- LisFrank

Portis - No LisFrank

Portis in a landslide.

LJ did NOT have lis franc!!

 

[dgreen]

To me it is safe to assume LJ will do better than last year, and Portis will not. Assuming both are healthy all season, which is reasonable, I see LJ's downside as bottom of the top 10, and Portis' upside as the bottom of the top 10.

That tells me all I need to know when drafting at the bottom of the first round.

Portis has finished as RB4, 5, 11, 6, 36, and 4 in his career. His 2006 ppg over 16 games would have put him at RB9. He turns 27 at the beginning of this season. How is the bottom of the top 10 his upside? Seems to me his upside is top 5 and his downside is 10.

 

[metoo]

Those counting on LJ this year truly do not know the severity of the injury he had last year. Don't let the whole "oh he may return week 15 or 16" fool you. It was MUCH more serious than the whole team led on. Nothign that will keep him out of this year to start, but it's definitley something that can hamper him all season long, or slow him down

I said this way back at the end of the season and I'll say it now- LJ's time in the top 10 of RBs is OVER. Coming from a physical therapist perspective, I will completely avoid him this year. He will be the biggest disappointment in fantasy this year if people are still taking him round 1, or even as their #1 RB.

Not to mention the fact that the offense he's in is in shambles and there's a different coach.... those alone should make you run away as fast as you can from him. Put his injury up there and he's on my AVOID list this draft... although I did trade him this offseason to a team who will probably keep him

EDIT:

To add on:

Edwards says that second-year RB Kolby Smith and rookie RB Jamaal Charles will factor into Kansas City's running game. "He knows he's going to get the ball. ... He's going to touch it a lot, but those other guys are going to touch it some, too. Larry is not going to carry the ball 40 times (per game). He'll be lucky to get 30." Edwards envisions Charles getting 10-to-12 touches per game and Smith having a role as well.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/players/playerpage/396164

LJ is not AP. He cannot run for 100+ yards with someone taking 1/3 of his carries.

I'll take that. Nothing has changed. Edwards still plans to run LJ into the ground.

 

[AnonymousBob]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

No, you didn't. Re-read the thread. I was against LJ until some posters convinced me to join the bandwagon.LJ had an unpredictable injury happen. Had he remained healthy he was on pace for a top ten finish.

***Edit To Add***

Blackjacks, I bumped that thread. Not trying to attack you - just trying to garner some discussion.

 

[texasheat]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

OMG you freaking nailed it! way to go!

 

[Blackjacks]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

No, you didn't. Re-read the thread. I was against LJ until some posters convinced me to join the bandwagon.LJ had an unpredictable injury happen. Had he remained healthy he was on pace for a top ten finish.

***Edit To Add***

Blackjacks, I bumped that thread. Not trying to attack you - just trying to garner some discussion.

you say unpredictable I say his injury happened due to too many carries the year before....like I stated last year

 

[Blackjacks]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

OMG you freaking nailed it! way to go!

Why the sarcasm? I did freaking nail it and now I am taunting my horn. When/if you ever hit something this solid you can sing your tune.

 

[joffer]

LJ- LisFrank

Portis - No LisFrank

Portis in a landslide.

LJ did NOT have lis franc!!

can you PROVE he didn't have lis franc??and i don't mean medical records or statements from LJ or his doctors about the diagnosis, those mean nothing

i mean were you physically inside his foot when the injury occurred and have slow-motion video of the actual break?

 

[AnonymousBob]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

No, you didn't. Re-read the thread. I was against LJ until some posters convinced me to join the bandwagon.LJ had an unpredictable injury happen. Had he remained healthy he was on pace for a top ten finish.

***Edit To Add***

Blackjacks, I bumped that thread. Not trying to attack you - just trying to garner some discussion.

you say unpredictable I say his injury happened due to too many carries the year before....like I stated last year

This is where the discussion can turn interesting. Portis had 372 touches last year...is that enough for him to get hurt? Or is it only when they get 28 more touches and a flip switches as they hit the 400 mark?

I think ANY/ALL rb's can be predicted for an injury. Their entire job consists of running into and being tackled by monstrous physical freaks. You do that enough times and I'm not surprised you get hurt. And one could likely argue the more carries they receive the more likely they are to get hurt - as just a pure numbers game. If player A gets 10 carries and player B gets 100 carries, all things being equal, player B is going to have a greater chance to get hurt. That's just due to the chances they're receiving.

So you can say LJ is more likely to get hurt than Michael Robinson if only because he's going to receive a lot more opportunities.

But saying two players that have limited injury histories, receiving approximately the same number of touches but one of them is more likely to get hurt because they had 20+ touches the season BEFORE? Nonsense. The 400 carry mark is a myth. Portis and LJ have imo about the same chance of getting hurt.

 

[AnonymousBob]

LJ- LisFrank

Portis - No LisFrank

Portis in a landslide.

LJ did NOT have lis franc!!

can you PROVE he didn't have lis franc??and i don't mean medical records or statements from LJ or his doctors about the diagnosis, those mean nothing

i mean were you physically inside his foot when the injury occurred and have slow-motion video of the actual break?

Uhm...you're joking, right?

 

[greenf7cat]

LJ- LisFrank

Portis - No LisFrank

Portis in a landslide.

LJ did NOT have lis franc!!

can you PROVE he didn't have lis franc??and i don't mean medical records or statements from LJ or his doctors about the diagnosis, those mean nothing

i mean were you physically inside his foot when the injury occurred and have slow-motion video of the actual break?

Can you PROVE he did? It was all speculation when he originally got injured, so now everyone is assuming he did! It was never stated that was the injury... assumptions do not always mean truth!

 

[joffer]

do they literally amputate your sarcasm meter now when you post in the SP? good grief fellas.

 

[greenf7cat]

do they literally amputate your sarcasm meter now when you post in the SP? good grief fellas.

It's hard to understand whether something is sarcasm or not when reading a typed message..sorry

 

[puckalicious]

To me it is safe to assume LJ will do better than last year, and Portis will not. Assuming both are healthy all season, which is reasonable, I see LJ's downside as bottom of the top 10, and Portis' upside as the bottom of the top 10.

That tells me all I need to know when drafting at the bottom of the first round.

Portis has finished as RB4, 5, 11, 6, 36, and 4 in his career. His 2006 ppg over 16 games would have put him at RB9. He turns 27 at the beginning of this season. How is the bottom of the top 10 his upside? Seems to me his upside is top 5 and his downside is 10.

My league must operate differently than yours. Championship is week 16, so week 17 points are meaningless. We also do not use PPR. Last year Portis had basically his best year ever and was the 6th RB in my league (30 points from 10th) which is the bottom of a top 10 to me. As stated numerous times here LJ was on pace for a top 10 finish in his worst year ever as a starter. They are both in their prime and are starting the year injury free so I feel they have equal injury risk.

 

[Blackjacks]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

No, you didn't. Re-read the thread. I was against LJ until some posters convinced me to join the bandwagon.LJ had an unpredictable injury happen. Had he remained healthy he was on pace for a top ten finish.

***Edit To Add***

Blackjacks, I bumped that thread. Not trying to attack you - just trying to garner some discussion.

you say unpredictable I say his injury happened due to too many carries the year before....like I stated last year

This is where the discussion can turn interesting. Portis had 372 touches last year...is that enough for him to get hurt? Or is it only when they get 28 more touches and a flip switches as they hit the 400 mark?

I think ANY/ALL rb's can be predicted for an injury. Their entire job consists of running into and being tackled by monstrous physical freaks. You do that enough times and I'm not surprised you get hurt. And one could likely argue the more carries they receive the more likely they are to get hurt - as just a pure numbers game. If player A gets 10 carries and player B gets 100 carries, all things being equal, player B is going to have a greater chance to get hurt. That's just due to the chances they're receiving.

So you can say LJ is more likely to get hurt than Michael Robinson if only because he's going to receive a lot more opportunities.

But saying two players that have limited injury histories, receiving approximately the same number of touches but one of them is more likely to get hurt because they had 20+ touches the season BEFORE? Nonsense. The 400 carry mark is a myth. Portis and LJ have imo about the same chance of getting hurt.

LJ had 456 touches!!!!!!! The most in history!!!!! Portis had almost 100 lesser touches in a less violent way. What don't you get about that? If one person gets in 2 car wrecks that are vendor benders and another gets in three accidents that total the car do they both have the same chance of getting a serious injury in your eyes? I know that might be a bit exaggerating but you see where I'm coming from I'm sure.

 

[dgreen]

To me it is safe to assume LJ will do better than last year, and Portis will not. Assuming both are healthy all season, which is reasonable, I see LJ's downside as bottom of the top 10, and Portis' upside as the bottom of the top 10.

That tells me all I need to know when drafting at the bottom of the first round.

Portis has finished as RB4, 5, 11, 6, 36, and 4 in his career. His 2006 ppg over 16 games would have put him at RB9. He turns 27 at the beginning of this season. How is the bottom of the top 10 his upside? Seems to me his upside is top 5 and his downside is 10.

My league must operate differently than yours. Championship is week 16, so week 17 points are meaningless. We also do not use PPR. Last year Portis had basically his best year ever and was the 6th RB in my league (30 points from 10th) which is the bottom of a top 10 to me. As stated numerous times here LJ was on pace for a top 10 finish in his worst year ever as a starter. They are both in their prime and are starting the year injury free so I feel they have equal injury risk.

Are you talking about the same Clinton Portis I'm talking about?

 

[AnonymousBob]

do they literally amputate your sarcasm meter now when you post in the SP? good grief fellas.

It's hard to understand whether something is sarcasm or not when reading a typed message..sorry

I have change the batteries in my sarcasm detector.

 

[AnonymousBob]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

No, you didn't. Re-read the thread. I was against LJ until some posters convinced me to join the bandwagon.LJ had an unpredictable injury happen. Had he remained healthy he was on pace for a top ten finish.

***Edit To Add***

Blackjacks, I bumped that thread. Not trying to attack you - just trying to garner some discussion.

you say unpredictable I say his injury happened due to too many carries the year before....like I stated last year

This is where the discussion can turn interesting. Portis had 372 touches last year...is that enough for him to get hurt? Or is it only when they get 28 more touches and a flip switches as they hit the 400 mark?

I think ANY/ALL rb's can be predicted for an injury. Their entire job consists of running into and being tackled by monstrous physical freaks. You do that enough times and I'm not surprised you get hurt. And one could likely argue the more carries they receive the more likely they are to get hurt - as just a pure numbers game. If player A gets 10 carries and player B gets 100 carries, all things being equal, player B is going to have a greater chance to get hurt. That's just due to the chances they're receiving.

So you can say LJ is more likely to get hurt than Michael Robinson if only because he's going to receive a lot more opportunities.

But saying two players that have limited injury histories, receiving approximately the same number of touches but one of them is more likely to get hurt because they had 20+ touches the season BEFORE? Nonsense. The 400 carry mark is a myth. Portis and LJ have imo about the same chance of getting hurt.

LJ had 456 touches!!!!!!! The most in history!!!!! Portis had almost 100 lesser touches in a less violent way. What don't you get about that? If one person gets in 2 car wrecks that are vendor benders and another gets in three accidents that total the car do they both have the same chance of getting a serious injury in your eyes? I know that might be a bit exaggerating but you see where I'm coming from I'm sure.

Would LJ have been okay if Edwards had stopped at 450 touches? 399? Which carry is the one that killed him off?

 

[puckalicious]

To me it is safe to assume LJ will do better than last year, and Portis will not. Assuming both are healthy all season, which is reasonable, I see LJ's downside as bottom of the top 10, and Portis' upside as the bottom of the top 10.

That tells me all I need to know when drafting at the bottom of the first round.

Portis has finished as RB4, 5, 11, 6, 36, and 4 in his career. His 2006 ppg over 16 games would have put him at RB9. He turns 27 at the beginning of this season. How is the bottom of the top 10 his upside? Seems to me his upside is top 5 and his downside is 10.

My league must operate differently than yours. Championship is week 16, so week 17 points are meaningless. We also do not use PPR. Last year Portis had basically his best year ever and was the 6th RB in my league (30 points from 10th) which is the bottom of a top 10 to me. As stated numerous times here LJ was on pace for a top 10 finish in his worst year ever as a starter. They are both in their prime and are starting the year injury free so I feel they have equal injury risk.

Are you talking about the same Clinton Portis I'm talking about?

Um, what number in your list is lower than 4? So how is it a stretch to say that finishing as RB4 in your scoring system does not qualify as one of his best years??

 

[dgreen]

To me it is safe to assume LJ will do better than last year, and Portis will not. Assuming both are healthy all season, which is reasonable, I see LJ's downside as bottom of the top 10, and Portis' upside as the bottom of the top 10.

That tells me all I need to know when drafting at the bottom of the first round.

Portis has finished as RB4, 5, 11, 6, 36, and 4 in his career. His 2006 ppg over 16 games would have put him at RB9. He turns 27 at the beginning of this season. How is the bottom of the top 10 his upside? Seems to me his upside is top 5 and his downside is 10.

My league must operate differently than yours. Championship is week 16, so week 17 points are meaningless. We also do not use PPR. Last year Portis had basically his best year ever and was the 6th RB in my league (30 points from 10th) which is the bottom of a top 10 to me. As stated numerous times here LJ was on pace for a top 10 finish in his worst year ever as a starter. They are both in their prime and are starting the year injury free so I feel they have equal injury risk.

Are you talking about the same Clinton Portis I'm talking about?

Um, what number in your list is lower than 4? So how is it a stretch to say that finishing as RB4 in your scoring system does not qualify as one of his best years??

While it matched his highest position ranking, it was not his best year (or even tied for his best year). 2007 was only his fourth best season in terms of total fantasy points and VBD value. Position ranking, IMO, is a more useful stat when comparing data across different eras. For example, WR1 in 1975 scored 159 points. 159 points would have only been good for WR13 in 2005. Because of changes in how the game is played over those 30 years, position rank can help identify just how good 159 points was in 1975. But, it says very little about what happened in 1974 and 1976. If WR1 from 1975 then scored 170 points in 1976 but someone else happens to score 175, making him WR2, I wouldn't say he was better in 1975 than 1976. That WR was likely better in 1976; someone just happened to be better too. Similarly, part of Portis' RB4 ranking in 2007 was due to less productivity from other top RBs who might have usually pushed his 238 fantasy points down the list a couple notches.

 

[Banger]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

No, you didn't. Re-read the thread. I was against LJ until some posters convinced me to join the bandwagon.LJ had an unpredictable injury happen. Had he remained healthy he was on pace for a top ten finish.

***Edit To Add***

Blackjacks, I bumped that thread. Not trying to attack you - just trying to garner some discussion.

you say unpredictable I say his injury happened due to too many carries the year before....like I stated last year

This is where the discussion can turn interesting. Portis had 372 touches last year...is that enough for him to get hurt? Or is it only when they get 28 more touches and a flip switches as they hit the 400 mark?

I think ANY/ALL rb's can be predicted for an injury. Their entire job consists of running into and being tackled by monstrous physical freaks. You do that enough times and I'm not surprised you get hurt. And one could likely argue the more carries they receive the more likely they are to get hurt - as just a pure numbers game. If player A gets 10 carries and player B gets 100 carries, all things being equal, player B is going to have a greater chance to get hurt. That's just due to the chances they're receiving.

So you can say LJ is more likely to get hurt than Michael Robinson if only because he's going to receive a lot more opportunities.

But saying two players that have limited injury histories, receiving approximately the same number of touches but one of them is more likely to get hurt because they had 20+ touches the season BEFORE? Nonsense. The 400 carry mark is a myth. Portis and LJ have imo about the same chance of getting hurt.

LJ had 456 touches!!!!!!! The most in history!!!!! Portis had almost 100 lesser touches in a less violent way. What don't you get about that? If one person gets in 2 car wrecks that are vendor benders and another gets in three accidents that total the car do they both have the same chance of getting a serious injury in your eyes? I know that might be a bit exaggerating but you see where I'm coming from I'm sure.

Interesting...so LJ's massive touch total the prior year caused him to get caught from behind 8 months later and pulled backward in an awkward way leading to a broken bone in his foot. Why did SJax, ADP, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, T. Henry, Caddy, Reggie Bush, Deuce, Benson, B. Jacobs, L. Jordan, R. Brown, Sammy Morris, M. Lynch, Maroney, etc. get injured and miss time (all missed 3+ games)? They didn't have the most carries in NFL history. I have a theory....RB is a brutal position and guys get hurt....

 

[cstu]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

No, you didn't. Re-read the thread. I was against LJ until some posters convinced me to join the bandwagon.LJ had an unpredictable injury happen. Had he remained healthy he was on pace for a top ten finish.

***Edit To Add***

Blackjacks, I bumped that thread. Not trying to attack you - just trying to garner some discussion.

you say unpredictable I say his injury happened due to too many carries the year before....like I stated last year

This is where the discussion can turn interesting. Portis had 372 touches last year...is that enough for him to get hurt? Or is it only when they get 28 more touches and a flip switches as they hit the 400 mark?

I think ANY/ALL rb's can be predicted for an injury. Their entire job consists of running into and being tackled by monstrous physical freaks. You do that enough times and I'm not surprised you get hurt. And one could likely argue the more carries they receive the more likely they are to get hurt - as just a pure numbers game. If player A gets 10 carries and player B gets 100 carries, all things being equal, player B is going to have a greater chance to get hurt. That's just due to the chances they're receiving.

So you can say LJ is more likely to get hurt than Michael Robinson if only because he's going to receive a lot more opportunities.

But saying two players that have limited injury histories, receiving approximately the same number of touches but one of them is more likely to get hurt because they had 20+ touches the season BEFORE? Nonsense. The 400 carry mark is a myth. Portis and LJ have imo about the same chance of getting hurt.

LJ had 456 touches!!!!!!! The most in history!!!!! Portis had almost 100 lesser touches in a less violent way. What don't you get about that? If one person gets in 2 car wrecks that are vendor benders and another gets in three accidents that total the car do they both have the same chance of getting a serious injury in your eyes? I know that might be a bit exaggerating but you see where I'm coming from I'm sure.

Interesting...so LJ's massive touch total the prior year caused him to get caught from behind 8 months later and pulled backward in an awkward way leading to a broken bone in his foot. Why did SJax, ADP, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, T. Henry, Caddy, Reggie Bush, Deuce, Benson, B. Jacobs, L. Jordan, R. Brown, Sammy Morris, M. Lynch, Maroney, etc. get injured and miss time (all missed 3+ games)? They didn't have the most carries in NFL history. I have a theory....RB is a brutal position and guys get hurt....

It's not worth arguing with "Touch Theory" folks. They blindly believe that a magical numbers of touches kill a player's career rather than the sport being an inherently dangerous one and it's like playing Russian Roulette every time they touch the ball.

 

[Blackjacks]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

No, you didn't. Re-read the thread. I was against LJ until some posters convinced me to join the bandwagon.LJ had an unpredictable injury happen. Had he remained healthy he was on pace for a top ten finish.

***Edit To Add***

Blackjacks, I bumped that thread. Not trying to attack you - just trying to garner some discussion.

you say unpredictable I say his injury happened due to too many carries the year before....like I stated last year

This is where the discussion can turn interesting. Portis had 372 touches last year...is that enough for him to get hurt? Or is it only when they get 28 more touches and a flip switches as they hit the 400 mark?

I think ANY/ALL rb's can be predicted for an injury. Their entire job consists of running into and being tackled by monstrous physical freaks. You do that enough times and I'm not surprised you get hurt. And one could likely argue the more carries they receive the more likely they are to get hurt - as just a pure numbers game. If player A gets 10 carries and player B gets 100 carries, all things being equal, player B is going to have a greater chance to get hurt. That's just due to the chances they're receiving.

So you can say LJ is more likely to get hurt than Michael Robinson if only because he's going to receive a lot more opportunities.

But saying two players that have limited injury histories, receiving approximately the same number of touches but one of them is more likely to get hurt because they had 20+ touches the season BEFORE? Nonsense. The 400 carry mark is a myth. Portis and LJ have imo about the same chance of getting hurt.

LJ had 456 touches!!!!!!! The most in history!!!!! Portis had almost 100 lesser touches in a less violent way. What don't you get about that? If one person gets in 2 car wrecks that are vendor benders and another gets in three accidents that total the car do they both have the same chance of getting a serious injury in your eyes? I know that might be a bit exaggerating but you see where I'm coming from I'm sure.

Interesting...so LJ's massive touch total the prior year caused him to get caught from behind 8 months later and pulled backward in an awkward way leading to a broken bone in his foot. Why did SJax, ADP, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, T. Henry, Caddy, Reggie Bush, Deuce, Benson, B. Jacobs, L. Jordan, R. Brown, Sammy Morris, M. Lynch, Maroney, etc. get injured and miss time (all missed 3+ games)? They didn't have the most carries in NFL history. I have a theory....RB is a brutal position and guys get hurt....

So Bob Hope, George Burns and Kurt Cobain all died....did they all die cause of the same reason? Different things happen to different people for different reasons. Wouldn't you say their were natural causes and induced reasons'?

 

[puckalicious]

To me it is safe to assume LJ will do better than last year, and Portis will not. Assuming both are healthy all season, which is reasonable, I see LJ's downside as bottom of the top 10, and Portis' upside as the bottom of the top 10.

That tells me all I need to know when drafting at the bottom of the first round.

Why is that safe to assume?

I don't believe in predicting injury, its like predicting what color the roulette ball falls on. Sometimes you are right, sometimes you are wrong, but never for the reasons you think. So you are right, it is never safe to assume a RB will not miss any games due to injury. However, LJ had his worst season last year as a starter while on track to finishing top 10.I'm not saying there is no way LJ misses time this season, but all the LJ detractors seem 100% convinced he will. Were you 100% convinced that Portis would miss 8 games in 2006?

 

[Banger]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

No, you didn't. Re-read the thread. I was against LJ until some posters convinced me to join the bandwagon.LJ had an unpredictable injury happen. Had he remained healthy he was on pace for a top ten finish.

***Edit To Add***

Blackjacks, I bumped that thread. Not trying to attack you - just trying to garner some discussion.

you say unpredictable I say his injury happened due to too many carries the year before....like I stated last year

This is where the discussion can turn interesting. Portis had 372 touches last year...is that enough for him to get hurt? Or is it only when they get 28 more touches and a flip switches as they hit the 400 mark?

I think ANY/ALL rb's can be predicted for an injury. Their entire job consists of running into and being tackled by monstrous physical freaks. You do that enough times and I'm not surprised you get hurt. And one could likely argue the more carries they receive the more likely they are to get hurt - as just a pure numbers game. If player A gets 10 carries and player B gets 100 carries, all things being equal, player B is going to have a greater chance to get hurt. That's just due to the chances they're receiving.

So you can say LJ is more likely to get hurt than Michael Robinson if only because he's going to receive a lot more opportunities.

But saying two players that have limited injury histories, receiving approximately the same number of touches but one of them is more likely to get hurt because they had 20+ touches the season BEFORE? Nonsense. The 400 carry mark is a myth. Portis and LJ have imo about the same chance of getting hurt.

LJ had 456 touches!!!!!!! The most in history!!!!! Portis had almost 100 lesser touches in a less violent way. What don't you get about that? If one person gets in 2 car wrecks that are vendor benders and another gets in three accidents that total the car do they both have the same chance of getting a serious injury in your eyes? I know that might be a bit exaggerating but you see where I'm coming from I'm sure.

Interesting...so LJ's massive touch total the prior year caused him to get caught from behind 8 months later and pulled backward in an awkward way leading to a broken bone in his foot. Why did SJax, ADP, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, T. Henry, Caddy, Reggie Bush, Deuce, Benson, B. Jacobs, L. Jordan, R. Brown, Sammy Morris, M. Lynch, Maroney, etc. get injured and miss time (all missed 3+ games)? They didn't have the most carries in NFL history. I have a theory....RB is a brutal position and guys get hurt....

So Bob Hope, George Burns and Kurt Cobain all died....did they all die cause of the same reason? Different things happen to different people for different reasons. Wouldn't you say their were natural causes and induced reasons'?

So what were the reasons for all the other players injuries? LJ is easy - if you have the most touch's ever=definite injury in the 8th week the following year, got that. Having the answers would be extremely useful so I could avoid players in similar situations this coming year. Thanks.

 

[Blackjacks]

So does everyone on this board really believe that it doesn't matter how many touches a rb gets in a game? If your starting rb got 40 carries 5 weeks in a row (1st of all he probably would get hurt during that span) but would you be a little fearful or him breaking down or would you just want him to get 50 the next week. I don't think there is a magic # but on the other hand I think you can have too many carries. I know that doesn't make sense but it's kind of like baseball. A pitcher doesn't have a # of pitches he can't go over but he can throw too many pitches. You can over do it. Some people's bodies are made differently than others and some can withstand more abuse but as a rule most coaches don't go over that imaginary # for a reason. The get paid alot more than me and they know that reason better than all of us.

 

[cstu]

So does everyone on this board really believe that it doesn't matter how many touches a rb gets in a game? If your starting rb got 40 carries 5 weeks in a row (1st of all he probably would get hurt during that span) but would you be a little fearful or him breaking down or would you just want him to get 50 the next week. I don't think there is a magic # but on the other hand I think you can have too many carries. I know that doesn't make sense but it's kind of like baseball. A pitcher doesn't have a # of pitches he can't go over but he can throw too many pitches. You can over do it. Some people's bodies are made differently than others and some can withstand more abuse but as a rule most coaches don't go over that imaginary # for a reason. The get paid alot more than me and they know that reason better than all of us.

More carries means more chances to get injuries and I do think that more carries hurt bigger backs than smaller ones who are good at avoiding big hits. While I don't my RB's getting the ball 30+ times a game, 320 carries a season is 20 a game - about what most teams try to limit their RB's to. The Chargers try to limit to LT under 25 carries and many times he's under 20.

 

[Banger]

So does everyone on this board really believe that it doesn't matter how many touches a rb gets in a game? If your starting rb got 40 carries 5 weeks in a row (1st of all he probably would get hurt during that span) but would you be a little fearful or him breaking down or would you just want him to get 50 the next week. I don't think there is a magic # but on the other hand I think you can have too many carries. I know that doesn't make sense but it's kind of like baseball. A pitcher doesn't have a # of pitches he can't go over but he can throw too many pitches. You can over do it. Some people's bodies are made differently than others and some can withstand more abuse but as a rule most coaches don't go over that imaginary # for a reason. The get paid alot more than me and they know that reason better than all of us.

I can only speak for myself but I believe that injuries are part of the game, every) gets them. I don't believe in the too many touch theories as a "predictor" of anything. I think running style has much more to do with potential injuries and over the course of a career a lot carries can have a cumulative effect. I'm much more concerned about persistent injuries involving knees than I am a random broken bone.

 

[Blackjacks]

So does everyone on this board really believe that it doesn't matter how many touches a rb gets in a game? If your starting rb got 40 carries 5 weeks in a row (1st of all he probably would get hurt during that span) but would you be a little fearful or him breaking down or would you just want him to get 50 the next week. I don't think there is a magic # but on the other hand I think you can have too many carries. I know that doesn't make sense but it's kind of like baseball. A pitcher doesn't have a # of pitches he can't go over but he can throw too many pitches. You can over do it. Some people's bodies are made differently than others and some can withstand more abuse but as a rule most coaches don't go over that imaginary # for a reason. The get paid alot more than me and they know that reason better than all of us.

I can only speak for myself but I believe that injuries are part of the game, every) gets them. I don't believe in the too many touch theories as a "predictor" of anything. I think running style has much more to do with potential injuries and over the course of a career a lot carries can have a cumulative effect. I'm much more concerned about persistent injuries involving knees than I am a random broken bone.

So a yes or no question for you here Banger. If you own Jamal Lewis and gets 4o carries in each game for the first 4 weeks you don't think that will affect his performance at all?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

So does everyone on this board really believe that it doesn't matter how many touches a rb gets in a game? If your starting rb got 40 carries 5 weeks in a row (1st of all he probably would get hurt during that span) but would you be a little fearful or him breaking down or would you just want him to get 50 the next week. I don't think there is a magic # but on the other hand I think you can have too many carries. I know that doesn't make sense but it's kind of like baseball. A pitcher doesn't have a # of pitches he can't go over but he can throw too many pitches. You can over do it. Some people's bodies are made differently than others and some can withstand more abuse but as a rule most coaches don't go over that imaginary # for a reason. The get paid alot more than me and they know that reason better than all of us.

I can only speak for myself but I believe that injuries are part of the game, every) gets them. I don't believe in the too many touch theories as a "predictor" of anything. I think running style has much more to do with potential injuries and over the course of a career a lot carries can have a cumulative effect. I'm much more concerned about persistent injuries involving knees than I am a random broken bone.

So a yes or no question for you here Banger. If you own Jamal Lewis and gets 4o carries in each game for the first 4 weeks you don't think that will affect his performance at all?

I believe the number of carries theory is just that, a theory. I do agree that his chances of getting hurt are greater if he carries the ball more based upon averages, but I don't believe the number of carries has anything to do with future injuries. RB milage is one of the biggest myths in football. However, I do agree with age being a factor, just as everyone else does.

 

[Banger]

So does everyone on this board really believe that it doesn't matter how many touches a rb gets in a game? If your starting rb got 40 carries 5 weeks in a row (1st of all he probably would get hurt during that span) but would you be a little fearful or him breaking down or would you just want him to get 50 the next week. I don't think there is a magic # but on the other hand I think you can have too many carries. I know that doesn't make sense but it's kind of like baseball. A pitcher doesn't have a # of pitches he can't go over but he can throw too many pitches. You can over do it. Some people's bodies are made differently than others and some can withstand more abuse but as a rule most coaches don't go over that imaginary # for a reason. The get paid alot more than me and they know that reason better than all of us.

I can only speak for myself but I believe that injuries are part of the game, every) gets them. I don't believe in the too many touch theories as a "predictor" of anything. I think running style has much more to do with potential injuries and over the course of a career a lot carries can have a cumulative effect. I'm much more concerned about persistent injuries involving knees than I am a random broken bone.

So a yes or no question for you here Banger. If you own Jamal Lewis and gets 4o carries in each game for the first 4 weeks you don't think that will affect his performance at all?

He may be more tired/fatigued than a guy getting 15 carries sure. For me its pretty simple..I target the guys that will be the horses in their offense, I want them to get the ball as much as possible. I don't worry about injuries unless a player has a balky knee or something along those lines. I don't love LJ's situation but I love that he will touch the ball several times each series whether they are ahead or behind.

 

[puckalicious]

To me it is safe to assume LJ will do better than last year, and Portis will not. Assuming both are healthy all season, which is reasonable, I see LJ's downside as bottom of the top 10, and Portis' upside as the bottom of the top 10.

That tells me all I need to know when drafting at the bottom of the first round.

:eatcrow:Well I can man up and admit being wrong about Portis. I traded for him right before his knee injury came out so that is my fault too!

I seriously underestimated how bad as a team KC is, and how inept Herm appears to be. If only LJ would get the ball more than 10 times a game... lots of ifs.

 

[daveandken]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

OMG you freaking nailed it! way to go!

Why the sarcasm? I did freaking nail it and now I am taunting my horn. When/if you ever hit something this solid you can sing your tune.

"Taunting" your horn?Ya, I guess that is appropriate.

 

[joffer]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

OMG you freaking nailed it! way to go!

Why the sarcasm? I did freaking nail it and now I am taunting my horn. When/if you ever hit something this solid you can sing your tune.

"Taunting" your horn?Ya, I guess that is appropriate.

don't pour salt in the womb

 

[T Bell]

for those drafting towards the end of round 1 and fully intending to go RB, what will you do if faced with this dilemma: portis vs LJ?

almost every mag or cheatsheet has these guys as back to back (i.e. RB8 and RB9). i know clinton is steady, but the new HC and OC worry me. LJ is also a workhorse, but plays on a worse team (albeit, one that is on an upswing) with a worse line. however, the way i see it: more high risk, high reward with LJ (i.e. higher ceiling 20 vs 14 TDs, say; but lower floor, 6 vs. 9 TDs).

i'm curious what the pool thinks about these two. i don't mean this as a WSID, but more of a learned discussion on two very similar situations: workhorse RBs who have a injury history and are in systems which will affect their performance.

To me it's Portis, and it's not that difficult of a choice. This is for a couple of reasons. First, Zorn is keeping the running game from the Gibbs regime intact. Same terminology, same plays, same blocking scheme, everything. They even have o-line coach Joe Bugel back, and all of their linemen are back and healthy (so far :fingerscrossed. That fact, combined with what promises to be a far more opened up passing attack means IMHO better running lanes and opportunities. Portis is also past the point in his career where they're going to worry at all about preserving him. They're going to ride him as they get Campbell and the passing game up and running. This could well end up being Portis' best year as a Redskin, taking into account yards, TD's and ypa. Also, Portis figures to be used even more heavily in the passing game.

Second, I'm not a believer in LJ. He's a "big back" and I always worry once those guys start to show signs of decline. He's older than his NFL experience, having entered the league at 23 rather than at 21 like so many elite backs. Those concerns about him plus his o-line's and QB's problems have me believing that he's no better than another Lendale White in fantasy terms.

I recognize that I'm more down on LJ than many, and also that I'm a Redskins homer, but that's my read on this.

:wow:

Portis is a stud, no doubt..but to compare LJ to Lendale White is just plain silly..

I'm talking about year-end fantasy numbers in that comparison. Nothing more.

White is a dud, while LJ is a proven player..even with a so/so line, if he stays healthy ( only been injured once, and that was last season), he should easily rush for 1200+ yards and a dozen TD's..this IS Herm Edwards we're talking about here, along with Chan Gailey as OC..they know a thing or two about running the ball..There will be growing pains with Zorn in DC...Who is your Redskins QB ? You've lost a good DC in Gregg Williams, too..how much will that hurt the time of possession stat for 2008?

one more thing:

weeks 15/16, KC plays Dolphins and Bengals. Does it get any better than that?!

also, LJ plays in a defensively challenged division...the Chiefs have stomped all over the Raiders ( rushing) in recent years, they've also stomped all over the Broncos, and they can effectively and successfully run against SD as well..they also play the 'Aints and their horrific defense, the Jets can't stop anyone's running game - and , its Herm's old team - The Bills are improving, but they can be run on, I don't remember the Falcons or the Panthers being able to stop anyone's rushing offense last season,either..

with 6 games against Jax , Indy, Hou, Fatdale has his work cut out for him..

It looks like I overestimated LJ . . . Lendale is the clear choice there.

 

[cstu]

To me it is safe to assume LJ will do better than last year, and Portis will not. Assuming both are healthy all season, which is reasonable, I see LJ's downside as bottom of the top 10, and Portis' upside as the bottom of the top 10.

That tells me all I need to know when drafting at the bottom of the first round.

Why is that safe to assume?

 

[Big Score]

To me it is safe to assume LJ will do better than last year, and Portis will not. Assuming both are healthy all season, which is reasonable, I see LJ's downside as bottom of the top 10, and Portis' upside as the bottom of the top 10.

That tells me all I need to know when drafting at the bottom of the first round.

Why is that safe to assume?

To satisfy your , here ya go...link

 

[One]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

OMG you freaking nailed it! way to go!

Why the sarcasm? I did freaking nail it and now I am taunting my horn. When/if you ever hit something this solid you can sing your tune.

"Taunting" your horn?Ya, I guess that is appropriate.

don't pour salt in the womb

Well played.

 

[Banger]

check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or not

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

OMG you freaking nailed it! way to go!

Why the sarcasm? I did freaking nail it and now I am taunting my horn. When/if you ever hit something this solid you can sing your tune.

"Taunting" your horn?Ya, I guess that is appropriate.

don't pour salt in the womb

that was hysterical...