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possible lengthy food, supply shortages coming to the US? Latest: start hiding Sriracha (2 Viewers)

On a scale of 1-10 how concerned are you about a food/supply shortage?

  • 1-Not concerned at all. Business as usual.

    Votes: 48 23.1%
  • 2

    Votes: 35 16.8%
  • 3

    Votes: 30 14.4%
  • 4

    Votes: 25 12.0%
  • 5-Mildly concerned, but not panicking. Stocking up on some non-perishable essentials.

    Votes: 45 21.6%
  • 6

    Votes: 8 3.8%
  • 7

    Votes: 9 4.3%
  • 8

    Votes: 4 1.9%
  • 9

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 10-Stocking up on everything.

    Votes: 4 1.9%

  • Total voters
    208
start churning butter?


I don't have a WSJ account but here's a summary of the article above:

We’re nearing a butter meltdown​

This holiday season, grandma’s favorite sugar cookies might be missing a crucial ingredient.
While inflation has infiltrated much of the grocery store, few items have been affected more than butter, which, according to The Wall Street Journal, could spell a holiday disaster.

The problem starts with cows

Rising costs for feed and labor have led farmers to reduce their cattle herds, causing a series of ripple effects:
  • Milk production was down 1% through June, compared to a typical annual growth rate of 1.5%-2.5%.
  • The dairy pecking order gives bottlers first priority; then manufacturers of ice cream, yogurt, and cheese; then butter churns, which have been left in short supply.
Making matters worse, butter churns usually produce most of their butter in the first half of the year, storing it in preparation for the holidays (AKA baking szn).

How bad is it?

Some might say we’re nearing a meltdown:
  • Butter prices are up ~25% YoY, trailing only eggs — the leading grocery store inflation item, up ~40%.
  • Butter in cold storage facilities was down 21% in July to its lowest level since 2017.
Butter producers are telling retailers not to offer heavy discounts during the holidays in case they can’t replenish supply, and some bakers are now hoarding butter to build up their own “butter army” for the holidays, per WSJ.
On top of all this, the latest foodie trend, with 10.5B+ views on TikTok, is charcuterie-style “butter boards.”
Of course, a solution to all this would be turning to margarine.
 
it's time to sound the alarm, gents! 🚨
OH COME ON NOW......

:wall:
The irony is that CO2 is a natural product of fermentation. But most breweries aren't set up to recapture it, instead re-injecting from tanked CO2 later to carbonate the beer.

There is a device called a "spunding valve" that can be put on a fermentation vessel to retain CO2 unless it exceeds a certain pressure. Probably not practical for very large-scale production as it would completely mess up the normal conditioning/packaging steps.
 
sounds like the railroad hurdle we thought we had gotten past is not exactly cleared yet. Essentially they just delayed it until after mid-term elections. :wall:


tl;dr: The upshot is that railroads could again be weeks away from a work stoppage that would halt 40 percent of the nation’s freight traffic, imperiling Americans’ food, drinking water and electricity supplies as well as the holiday shopping season.
 
sounds like the railroad hurdle we thought we had gotten past is not exactly cleared yet. Essentially they just delayed it until after mid-term elections. :wall:


tl;dr: The upshot is that railroads could again be weeks away from a work stoppage that would halt 40 percent of the nation’s freight traffic, imperiling Americans’ food, drinking water and electricity supplies as well as the holiday shopping season.
The good news is that regardless of desire, Congress can compel them under Railway Labor Act and have indicated that they will step in if necessary as this would be disastrous to our economy.
 
So far no major outages here. I have noticed a few times that the milk cooler was more barren than usual, and zero chocolate milk (come on, brown cows, keep up!) or buttermilk offerings a few times.

That said, the railroad strike ordeal still isn't over with yet:


That deal hinged on ratification by a majority of members at all 12 of those unions. So far, eight have voted in favor, but four have rejected the terms. If even one continues to reject the deal after further negotiations, it could mean a full-scale freight strike will start as soon as midnight on Dec. 5, 2022. Any work stoppage by conductors and engineers would surely interfere with the delivery of gifts and other items Americans will want to receive in time for the holiday season, along with coal, lumber and other key commodities.
 
Might have to start making my own garlic bread based on my recent visits
out of bread or garlic? If there is a garlic shortage, I'm going postal! :lol:

They are always out of the frozen garlic breads
Ahh, those are good. Haven't bought any in a while. Gotten into a habit lately of making my own from leftover hotdog/hamburger buns. Just butter, add plentiful garlic salt and bake till crispy.
 
another article on the still-looming railroad strike:


This is the part that caught my eye:

More possible and also worrying: As the December deadline creeps closer, the freight rail companies will start shutting down certain shipments — of hazardous chemicals, say — ahead of a potential strike.

  • For example, in the run-up to the labor deal brokered in September, the rail companies stopped shipments of all hazardous chemicals — that meant a drop of nearly 2,000 carloads of chemical shipments for just one week in September.
  • Those chemicals find their way into some critical everyday necessities — chlorine, used to keep drinking water clean, as well as ethanol and ammonia, used for fertilizer.
 
So far no major outages here. I have noticed a few times that the milk cooler was more barren than usual, and zero chocolate milk (come on, brown cows, keep up!) or buttermilk offerings a few times.

That said, the railroad strike ordeal still isn't over with yet:


That deal hinged on ratification by a majority of members at all 12 of those unions. So far, eight have voted in favor, but four have rejected the terms. If even one continues to reject the deal after further negotiations, it could mean a full-scale freight strike will start as soon as midnight on Dec. 5, 2022. Any work stoppage by conductors and engineers would surely interfere with the delivery of gifts and other items Americans will want to receive in time for the holiday season, along with coal, lumber and other key commodities.
My boys used to drink chocolate milk all the time, they don’t anymore which is crazy but I think they read it’s bad for working out or maybe too much sugar, not sure. Either way, chocolate milk was always something that would disappear pre-pandemic. We’d go to multiple grocery stores because they only liked a couple types way better but it’s a specialty type item so they’d often sell out. I’d buy up to 4 gallons at a time, yep, 4 gallons.
 
So far no major outages here. I have noticed a few times that the milk cooler was more barren than usual, and zero chocolate milk (come on, brown cows, keep up!) or buttermilk offerings a few times.

That said, the railroad strike ordeal still isn't over with yet:


That deal hinged on ratification by a majority of members at all 12 of those unions. So far, eight have voted in favor, but four have rejected the terms. If even one continues to reject the deal after further negotiations, it could mean a full-scale freight strike will start as soon as midnight on Dec. 5, 2022. Any work stoppage by conductors and engineers would surely interfere with the delivery of gifts and other items Americans will want to receive in time for the holiday season, along with coal, lumber and other key commodities.
My boys used to drink chocolate milk all the time, they don’t anymore which is crazy but I think they read it’s bad for working out or maybe too much sugar, not sure. Either way, chocolate milk was always something that would disappear pre-pandemic. We’d go to multiple grocery stores because they only liked a couple types way better but it’s a specialty type item so they’d often sell out. I’d buy up to 4 gallons at a time, yep, 4 gallons.
Ha. Oddly enough I always drink about 8oz of chocolate milk after my workouts. Read somewhere many years ago that it was actually a pretty good post-workout bc it does have a little sugar to go along with he protein. As anything, just need moderation. It's easy to chug half the carton. As for brands, Borden has always been the gold standard for me, but as of a couple months ago, we can't get it any more. I guess because of this:

They've replaced it with another brand (can't recall which) that is palatable, but def not Borden. Promise Land is also pretty good but more expensive. It is thicker and tastes like melted chocolate ice cream. It may actually BE melted chocolate ice cream. :lol:
 
So far no major outages here. I have noticed a few times that the milk cooler was more barren than usual, and zero chocolate milk (come on, brown cows, keep up!) or buttermilk offerings a few times.

That said, the railroad strike ordeal still isn't over with yet:


That deal hinged on ratification by a majority of members at all 12 of those unions. So far, eight have voted in favor, but four have rejected the terms. If even one continues to reject the deal after further negotiations, it could mean a full-scale freight strike will start as soon as midnight on Dec. 5, 2022. Any work stoppage by conductors and engineers would surely interfere with the delivery of gifts and other items Americans will want to receive in time for the holiday season, along with coal, lumber and other key commodities.
My boys used to drink chocolate milk all the time, they don’t anymore which is crazy but I think they read it’s bad for working out or maybe too much sugar, not sure. Either way, chocolate milk was always something that would disappear pre-pandemic. We’d go to multiple grocery stores because they only liked a couple types way better but it’s a specialty type item so they’d often sell out. I’d buy up to 4 gallons at a time, yep, 4 gallons.
Ha. Oddly enough I always drink about 8oz of chocolate milk after my workouts. Read somewhere many years ago that it was actually a pretty good post-workout bc it does have a little sugar to go along with he protein. As anything, just need moderation. It's easy to chug half the carton. As for brands, Borden has always been the gold standard for me, but as of a couple months ago, we can't get it any more. I guess because of this:

They've replaced it with another brand (can't recall which) that is palatable, but def not Borden. Promise Land is also pretty good but more expensive. It is thicker and tastes like melted chocolate ice cream. It may actually BE melted chocolate ice cream. :lol:
Ever have this stuff?

https://www.promisedlanddairy.com/products_items/midnight-chocolate/

It's like a milkshake
 
So far no major outages here. I have noticed a few times that the milk cooler was more barren than usual, and zero chocolate milk (come on, brown cows, keep up!) or buttermilk offerings a few times.

That said, the railroad strike ordeal still isn't over with yet:


That deal hinged on ratification by a majority of members at all 12 of those unions. So far, eight have voted in favor, but four have rejected the terms. If even one continues to reject the deal after further negotiations, it could mean a full-scale freight strike will start as soon as midnight on Dec. 5, 2022. Any work stoppage by conductors and engineers would surely interfere with the delivery of gifts and other items Americans will want to receive in time for the holiday season, along with coal, lumber and other key commodities.
My boys used to drink chocolate milk all the time, they don’t anymore which is crazy but I think they read it’s bad for working out or maybe too much sugar, not sure. Either way, chocolate milk was always something that would disappear pre-pandemic. We’d go to multiple grocery stores because they only liked a couple types way better but it’s a specialty type item so they’d often sell out. I’d buy up to 4 gallons at a time, yep, 4 gallons.
Ha. Oddly enough I always drink about 8oz of chocolate milk after my workouts. Read somewhere many years ago that it was actually a pretty good post-workout bc it does have a little sugar to go along with he protein. As anything, just need moderation. It's easy to chug half the carton. As for brands, Borden has always been the gold standard for me, but as of a couple months ago, we can't get it any more. I guess because of this:

They've replaced it with another brand (can't recall which) that is palatable, but def not Borden. Promise Land is also pretty good but more expensive. It is thicker and tastes like melted chocolate ice cream. It may actually BE melted chocolate ice cream. :lol:
Ever have this stuff?

https://www.promisedlanddairy.com/products_items/midnight-chocolate/

It's like a milkshake
Yes, that's it, I truncated the name in my previous post. Pretty good stuff, just a tad thicker and sweeter than Borden.
 
Not so much "supply chain" problem, but more like a lot of sick children all at once problem:


Also, I'd like to report my market was out of buttermilk the last 2 times I've gone there (needed it for cornbread recipe). WTH. Was there a run on buttermilk that I wasn't aware of?!
 
Yeah, we are seeing barren shelves here for all kinds of cold and flu medicines. Shelves just wiped out. My kids all had this mess within the last few weeks. Been brutal here in KC.
 
No eggs at all today at one grocery store in town with a big sign apologizing (but not explaining).
I think usage goes up around the holidays. Probably same reason for my buttermilk shortage. But for eggs (and chicken, turkey, etc.) there has also been a bird flu outbreak that's wreaking havoc here and abroad.

I buy a TON of eggs bc I eat them daily. We haven't had any shortages but the prices are up about 50% from "regular" price. Supply and demand I guess. I have a coworker that's been bringing me duck eggs, which has been a nice savings.
 
In regards to the China Covid situation (mentioned in the Covid thread) affecting medicine supply chain...

I'll post some more info as I find it, but the gist of what I have learned thus far is that China controls a fairly large amount of the process in creating medicine either by import or export as part of the process. It is a (or THE perhaps) top producer of the APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) which are the main illness-treating components of making a medicine, along with raw materials and intermediate chemical compounds then topped off with finishing materials like starch.. A handful of other countries (including the US) produce meds as well of course, but the rub is that most of them, for cost-saving reasons like everything else, use China for at least some of the process, whether it's the raw materials or the APIs, etc.


Above is a report from earlier this year that has a pretty decent breakdown and offers this:
Until the mid-1990s, the West and Japan reportedly produced 90% of the world’s APIs. But the U.K.’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency estimated in 2017 that China alone was producing about 40% of all APIs.

and

Even India, another pharmaceutical giant often considered to be an alternative to China, depends heavily on Chinese supplies. According to the European Commission, India accounts for about 20% of global generic drug demand by volume, but it imports about 70% of the APIs from China. For some drugs, such as the painkilling and anti-inflammatory ibuprofen, India procures the vast majority of the APIs from China, according to the Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India (Pharmexcil). Moreover, while India is one of the biggest API exporters, many KSMs and intermediates of those APIs come from China.

and

Even within China, API manufacturing is geographically concentrated. Out of all Chinese API manufacturers, more than 40% of those registered with the U.S. and Japan respectively are in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. With China sticking to its zero-tolerance approach to fighting the coronavirus, there are nagging worries in the industry about the potential impact of sudden lockdowns. In fact, the lockdown happened around Shanghai in March 2022 caused shipping delays and freight increase, according to Fujikawa.

This is no longer just an economic or business problem..


Although the actual problem they worried about (lockdowns) could actually turn out to be the opposite of that. Will be interested to see if they update their report in the coming weeks.
 
So much resources wasted for bullets rather than bread, sickening, so much energy and resources wasted on unhealthy foods none of this is surprising to those taking notice of real facts and real history.
 
Nevermind the media source here (please no politics in the thread), but it brings up an angle that I hadn't really thought about.


"I definitely think we have a food security threat," Stephanie Nash, a Tennessee farmer and agriculture advocate told Fox News. "I believe 2023 is going to be rough. Worse than this year."

A number of factors have contributed to rising food prices, including fertilizer and fuel shortages, extreme weather conditions and rising interest rates in an industry that relies on debt financing, Nash said.

"2022 was a really hard year," the 29-year-old said. "I think there's going to be a lot of shortages next year for sure."

"We're going to have a supply chain shortage, we're going to have an increase in our food [prices] at the grocery store," she added. "I don't think it's going to go down anytime soon, and I think Americans are really going to be hurting in their wallet.
"
 
"I definitely think we have a food security threat," Stephanie Nash, a Tennessee farmer and agriculture advocate told Fox News. "I believe 2023 is going to be rough. Worse than this year."

She seems nice

Oh boy, she's out there huh?. :lol: Thanks for that gem. I hope she's off base about the farming stuff, but having talked to some farmer friends here locally in the past year or two, I fear she's not.
 
I think the trucking situation is going to be a constant problem. It's easily fixed, but it will have to get worse before any changes are made.


Can anyone remember a year when farmers said everything was going great?
 
"I definitely think we have a food security threat," Stephanie Nash, a Tennessee farmer and agriculture advocate told Fox News. "I believe 2023 is going to be rough. Worse than this year."

She seems nice


with a voice like that - she's been called the songbird of her generation.
She could be the headliner at Farm Aid 2023.
 
I think the trucking situation is going to be a constant problem. It's easily fixed, but it will have to get worse before any changes are made.


Can anyone remember a year when farmers said everything was going great?
lol that is a fair point. Honestly the drought conditions and fertilizer shortages concern me the most re: the farming industry. Well and Russia messing with the global oil economy. It's just a whole lot all at once with the potential to become a major problem really quickly, IMO. Time to bump my "building a compound" thread. :lol:
 

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