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Yeah I'm not terribly down on Ponder either. He has some accuracy issues and collapsed late in some games but if he has a year or so before stepping in (maybe they can fix the oline a bit) he could be the goods. I wouldn't love him this year but I think he's a solid prospect with fantastic weapons to play with.
Even though Jones fell in the draft, he landed on a team with terrific opportunity at MLB. Irving has a higher ceiling, but I like Jones and Sturdivant just as much in a vacuum and they have pretty good opportunity tooMouton pick is probably also because of Burnett, Siler, and Cooper, only one or two at the most will be backCarter is going to be a beast. Carter and Lee is going to be probably the best pair of starting ILBs in any 3-4 by 2013Foster looks stiff to me, too. Opportunity dictates a pick in the 4th or so, but someone will probably bite before I will.Good call on Sheard, just an oversight on my partMatthews looks like an oversized strong safety to me. no thanks.
PATS RB has amazing value! a totally pedestrian talent (BJGE) had 1000/13 last year on about 15 carries a game. The #2 back had almost 1000 total yards and 6 TDs. They are perennially among the most effective teams at running the ball and produce 15-20 TDs out of the backfield every year. I'll take my chances with the most talented back on their roster in the late first every time.
So who are your #2 and #3?
I like1) Ingram2) R. Williams 3) Daniel Thomas
Nah, that's what this board is for...debate FF topics.
Too much situation and not enough talent. If the Dolphins drafted me does that make me the number 3 pick?
Can you get me 250 FF points? Then YES!
I can get you 250 FF points but I don't think Thomas can.
It was just reported that Baldwin will be going to Larry Fitz's receiving camp this summer! That's a big time plus for the young kid.
I expect Williams to be the starting RB in 2012.In 2011 it's anybody's guess.
I was surprised at that myself. The kid is talented, but he should be worth a look just based on the situation he fell into.
I think Baldwin is too low in Bloom's rankings. I would put him in my top 12 minimum. 
There's another reason to like Baldwin. Bowe was never a favorite of coach Haley, and his contract is up after 2011. This pick may be paving the way for Bowe's exit if they don't think he's worth a mega-contract.
That would be bad for Cassel and good for Bowe. Imagine what he could do with a real qb!
Although I quoted the Cassel post, I was just commenting on how it would make Baldwin da man in KC.
Just drafted him at 1.08 (you're welcome, Bloom) and am very happy about it, so obviously I agree with you.There is reason for concern, sure. But people are valuing him under the assumption he is a bust. Based on his Junior year production and unique measurable alone, he is worth a mid-first rounder, even assuming you view him as a gamble. Couple that with the fact that an NFL team with millions at stake took him in the first round and I feel he is well worth the risk. There is potential for Bowe to bail after this coming season, making him the #1, Cassel is not elite, but he didn't stop Bowe from being a high end WR1.As for comparing him to Cobb/Little, the hit rate on 2nd round WRs is low - much lower than those taken in the late first. And the Little love is coming out of nowhere. He went from a sleeper, high-upside 2nd round pick to a top 5-8 guy. Because the Browns drafted him?
As I've said elsewhere, I went back and watched highlights of all of the top 15 receivers on Wednesday night. I had Baldwin as clearly the "best of the rest" after the consensus top 2 of Green and Jones. The lack of love in a year when there was only one first round RB and two other first round WRs is a bit puzzling. If you ask me, people are over-thinking things, like they did with Demaryius Thomas last year. This guy is a good prospect and worth every bit of the pick KC spent on him. I would be happy to take him off the board at 1.04, so getting him at 1.08-1.12 is just criminal IMO.
I'm not seeing the love for Brown. Short term, I see him as WR #4 this year and maybe next year. Beyond that, it will depend on how he plays and how the roster evolves.Since Norv Turner arrived in 2007, San Diego is #31 in the NFL in WR targets. Here is the number of fantasy points scored by the second highest scoring WR each year over that span:2007 - Vincent Jackson, 80.3 fantasy points, WR53 (FBG scoring)2008 - Chris Chambers, 76.3 fantasy points, WR52 (FBG scoring)2009 - Malcom Floyd, 83.6 fantasy points, WR53 (FBG scoring)2010 - Patrick Crayton, 57.6 fantasy points, WR77 (FBG scoring)Last year appears to be an aberration because of Jackson's holdout and so many injuries to the Chargers WRs. It appears that there is a decent sample here that shows the WR2 in San Diego will typically finish around WR53 or so.Are people who are high on Brown ignoring the short term? I can see that.Are people who are high on Brown expecting he can follow the Vincent Jackson route and ultimately be a strong lead WR for the Chargers? I don't see that.Are people who are high on Brown expecting that San Diego WR targets will increase a lot as Gates ages and with Sproles likely departing? I don't see that. I think the results in San Diego are consistent with Norv's past teams.Or am I just off base in thinking I wouldn't target a WR50 type with what appears to be a limited ceiling with a first round rookie draft pick?
As a player, it is all opinion at this point. Time will tell.I think his situation is great. For starters, the team invested in him, so will give him the opportunity to live up to his potential. Also, he should start putting up numbers right away. The #2 WR in KC had 22 catches, I think. He has a #1 that can take double teams and his opponents will be forced to keep an eye in the backfield with Charles back there. There is potential that Bowe walks as a FA as well next season, as others has mentioned. If he can come in and catch 50 balls and 6-7 TDs, his value will be much higher than it is now. I think that is a very realistic scenario. When you look at guys like Pettis, Salas, and Brown - one year on the bench and their value takes a very big hit. Baldwin's physical skills and draft position would keep him relevant, even as a flier, should he not live up to his rookie season expectations.
I haven't had any rookie drafts yet, but if he's there in the late first, I'm taking him. Saw Baldwin at a game in person last year and came away completely impressed. If he had a QB who had some accuracy and could hit him on deep routes (and not named Tino Sunseri), he'd be in the same conversation with Green and Jones.
Big counterpoint:1. WHEN (not if) Jackson leaves, there's no clear #1. That's in 2012 at the latest.2. Is there ANYONE on that roster that will stop Brown from claiming the #2 spot quickly? Is there ANYONE on that roster besides Jackson that could challenge for the #1 role in a year?3. Would the "historic" #2 numbers be a bad rookie season? I'd be thrilled to get that kind of production from a late first round pick, and I'm not so sure Brown can't deliver them.He's a bit higher on Bloom's list than my own, but not by all that much.
The only thing that scares me about Torrey is that he doesn't look natural catching the ball, he doesn't pluck the ball out of the air, lots of catches close to the body.
Actually, to a certain extent I agree with this -- he needs to work on this aspect of his game. But, I've watched him play quite a few times, and what it looks like to me is that sometimes he will pluck the ball out of the air but he pulls it in so quickly it looks like a body catch. The second his hands touch the ball he's already pulled it back He does have quite a few body catches as well, though, but I don't think it's as bad an issue as many make it out to be. Just my .02.
Here is what I expect as a Chargers fan:Jackson, Floyd, Naanee, and Washington are all UFAs. I expect all but Floyd to be gone this year. I think there won't be a huge market for Floyd at 30 and with his injury history, so I think the Chargers will resign him to retain an experienced WR. IMO that will leave Floyd as the #1, Ajirotutu and Crayton as the #2 and #3, probably in that order, and Brown as the #4. That's what I expect this year and probably next year, unless Brown really impresses. I think Floyd and Ajirotutu are generally underrated on this board.And all of that assumes the Chargers do not sign a veteran WR as a free agent, which seems possible.So, to answer your questions:1. I expect Floyd to be the #1 this year and next year. Beyond that, hard to say. From what I understand about Brown, I'm not aware that he has the ability to get deep that the #1 needs to have in Norv's a vertical offense. Floyd has that ability.I suppose the best case for Brown is that Jackson and Floyd are both gone and no one else is signed. But how likely does that seem?2. IMO yes. See above.3. No, it wouldn't be bad for a rookie. But none of those guys were rookies. My point is that #2 appears to be his upside, and #2 in Norv's offense has limited potential... not just for a rookie, but for veterans too. Part of the reason it wouldn't be bad for a rookie is that it would be anticipated that he could improve on those numbers, but that hasn't tended to happen in Norv's offense. (Correct me if I'm wrong.) Jackson and Floyd passed through the #2 role on the way to #1 in the offense, but they both have the ability to get deep.I'm looking for someone to explain a reasonable scenario in which Brown is startable in most fantasy leagues within three years.'renesauz said:
I'll let someone else have that steal.#2 WR for the run-oriented Chiefs isn't someone I can remember targeting. I hate what I hear about Baldwin's attitude and so forth, and I wonder if Haley is the guy to deal with it.'EBF said:'Concept Coop said:
The Chiefs have been "run-oriented" because that's what their personnel has dictated. When was the last time they had a legitimate threat at WR2? How about never? Baldwin is a MAJOR upgrade over the jokers they've been trotting out for the past decade. He's a first round talent with a legitimate set of physical tools. 6'4" 228 with high 4.4 speed, a 42" vertical leap, and 10'9" broad jump. He had as many catches as AJ Green over the past two seasons with more receiving yards (albeit in more games). This is a productive player with a first round pedigree and plenty of physical talent to make the jump to the NFL. Yet I'm seeing him go below 3rd-5th round NFL draft picks in my rookie drafts. That's lunacy.I'll let someone else have that steal.#2 WR for the run-oriented Chiefs isn't someone I can remember targeting. I hate what I hear about Baldwin's attitude and so forth, and I wonder if Haley is the guy to deal with it.'EBF said:'Concept Coop said:
Agreed, although i can see why some might prefer someof the 4th round RB over him.The Chiefs have been "run-oriented" because that's what their personnel has dictated. When was the last time they had a legitimate threat at WR2? How about never? Baldwin is a MAJOR upgrade over the jokers they've been trotting out for the past decade. He's a first round talent with a legitimate set of physical tools. 6'4" 228 with high 4.4 speed, a 42" vertical leap, and 10'9" broad jump. He had as many catches as AJ Green over the past two seasons with more receiving yards (albeit in more games). This is a productive player with a first round pedigree and plenty of physical talent to make the jump to the NFL. Yet I'm seeing him go below 3rd-5th round NFL draft picks in my rookie drafts. That's lunacy.I'll let someone else have that steal.#2 WR for the run-oriented Chiefs isn't someone I can remember targeting. I hate what I hear about Baldwin's attitude and so forth, and I wonder if Haley is the guy to deal with it.'EBF said:'Concept Coop said:
The lack of love in a year when there was only one first round RB and two other first round WRs is a bit puzzling. If you ask me, people are over-thinking things, like they did with Demaryius Thomas last year. This guy is a good prospect and worth every bit of the pick KC spent on him.
I would be happy to take him off the board at 1.04, so getting him at 1.08-1.12 is just criminal IMO.
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I agree that he shouldn't leave the 1st round of rookie drafts, and I don't advocate reaching for these mid round backs over him. But I didn't like the player before the draft, the Chiefs situation isn't so great to make me change my mind. That 4.4 speed? Doesn't show up on game day. He's not a fast WR by NFL standards, regardless of what he ran in shorts.I can't stand the diva routine, and I made my stand a long time ago to avoid those problems. I got to sit back and enjoy Brandon Marshall's temper tantrums, because I wasn't invested in him. I can live with missing out on players that turn it around and mature, but I can't live with ignoring red flags, then waiting to hear how long a suspension starts.
Fair enough. But when you're 6'4" 225, you don't need blazing speed. Guys like Marshall, Bowe, Boldin, and VJax have demonstrated why. Baldwin is very fluid for a big target. He moves well for someone that big.
Baldwin is basically a vertical threat though and not strong at all after the catch. He is comparable to vjax but has nothing in common with Marshall/bowe/boldin as far as playing style.I do like Baldwin but he doesn't seem to be able to run a lot of routes effectively and he won't be a big YAC guy. He'll need to live or die with his vertical game. Vjax has so Baldwin could as well.
Sproles being let go leaves a big hole in the offense. I don't see the backs on the roster catching 100 passes like they have in the past. Some of that will have to go to the receivers. Next year Gates will be 32, the age when TE's start to decline. I see no reason why he won't be a 70 catch guy as long as he's healthy, but he will likely become a lesser part of the offense than in the past. As long as VJax is there, I think Brown's upside is very limited. However, if he's gone (at least by next year) it could be a 1a/1b situation at WR - unless they draft or sign (unlikely) a true #1. The team in the past has lacked a good possession receiver and has used RB's a lot in that role. I don't expect huge numbers from him in the offense but he could be a Welker-lite type of guy who puts up good numbers in PPR.
He is very much a possession-receiver. That said, he doesn't have the feet of Marshall, Bowe, Boldin. But, I only see one guy that is dangerous at all 3 levels like Marshall, and that is Green. Not being Marshall, Bowe, or Boldin doesn't mean you can't be a solid 1st round pick.
Interesting post. I disagree with most of it.Last year, Sproles had 75 targets and 59 receptions. The other Chargers RBs had 68 receptions combined. Those targets and receptions for Sproles will certainly not all go to WRs... there is a great chance the Chargers RBs will indeed approach 100 receptions without Sproles. IMO it is more about the offense than about Sproles.
I took a look at this guys limited highlights and totally understand why the Patriots feel in love with him. I was actually amazed at the way he gain yards after contact. He is the exact opposite of the Chris Henry type player that rose of draft boards because of some track measurable. I am starting to believe that he might be the Rudy Johnson of this years draft. BGE did score 13 TDs last season. The goalline could be Ridley's area of expertise. Probably not going to take part in any drafts this year but if I was I would be trading back for this guy.
and 7 in two standard rookie drafts I'm part of.
