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that's his best case scenarioinjuries or late-game missteps could derail him pretty quicklyI would rather take a chance on a QB with a higher ceiling because QB is strong enough that Ponder doesn't really project as a starter even in his best case scenario (you really want to be rolling with eli or flacco as your #1?). If you must take a QB, take one who could start for your team if he hits.
What was Detroit's QB situation when Calvin was drafted?#2 wide receivers can be top 20 for fantasy easy in good pass offenses, Atlanta belongs in that category.
LeShoure is the most physically gifted back in this class, that's what I meant by ceiling pre-draft. His ceiling post-draft is defined more by situation, and it took a hit.Ingram has the highest ceiling in this draft, Williams could be held back by Arizona's offense for a long time, whereas Ingram plays in an offense that could make mediocre backs into fantasy #2s and merely good backs into #1s. Ingram has #1 overall fantasy back upside. You heard me.
just never popped for me on film.
If Arizona trades for Kolb would you still feel this way?
Baldwin isn't really that athletic. He's big and can outjump DBs. He's a little faster and quick than his TE-like build would suggest, but he's not explosive or sudden by any means, no matter what his combine numbers were. Watch the film. He even looks a little sluggish at times. I don't care about his first-round status because he was a reach, should have went mid-second.I grew up a huge Pitt fan and saw plenty of Baldwin. He's not really a natural. He mistimed leaps and doesn't always high point balls. He doesn't use his body to get good position consistently and yields space to smaller DBs when he needn't. He doesn't run particularly strong after the catch. He doesn't always hands catch. In general, he looks like a middle class Demaryius Thomas to me. Combine that with character questions and a QB who I don't think is a particularly good improvisor or bold decision maker and I'll pass for lesser physical talents who are more polished receivers and landed in much better offenses.'EBF said:
Little had big time upside heading into the draft, but we didn't quite know how much he would fall because his character turned teams off (if at all), and where he would land. He was drafted into basically an instant #1 WR role with a popgun arm QB who suits his Brandon Marshall my ball mentality with an angry RB after the catch game perfectly. I feel like this one lined up perfectly, and I'm feeling more like that about Vereen each day too. EEEE'Concept Coop said:
'He's a classic precise #2 type possession receiver. Think Derrick Mason. That kind of talent can be a 1000 yard receiver with a QB like Rivers easy.'Just Win Baby said:
Think Derrick Mason? Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Mason been the #1 WR on his team for 9 of the past 11 seasons? Not sure why you'd cite him as the comparison for a #2 type possession WR.Furthermore, you apparently are willing to just blow off Norv's history of #2 WRs.
Every single one of those guys play with a lot more edge to their game in most every facet than Baldwin does, and only Jackson really developed into one of those guys, the rest had it when they arrived.
Don't get me wrong - I expect a lot of passes to still go to the RB's. However, the backs on the team are not what I'd classify as "natural" pass catchers like LT and Sproles. Maybe Sproles catches will be a 50/50 split between the RB's and WR's.The WR's were a mess last year, but in 2009 the top 3 WR's caught 137 passes. Also, at some point age will catch up with Gates and that's when Brown will have his best chance to shine. It pains me to say it, but Gates could even be gone by Brown's 3rd year and then there will be a big opportunity for him.Interesting post. I disagree with most of it.Last year, Sproles had 75 targets and 59 receptions. The other Chargers RBs had 68 receptions combined. Those targets and receptions for Sproles will certainly not all go to WRs... there is a great chance the Chargers RBs will indeed approach 100 receptions without Sproles. IMO it is more about the offense than about Sproles.
He's not as dangerous after the catch as Bowe and Boldin. On the other hand, they're not 6'4"+. He runs really well from what I can tell (he's not super fast, but he's fluid). His height/speed/athleticism/leaping ability/strength will create problems for corners. If you look around the league right now, quite a few of these thicker size/speed hybrid guys are thriving. White. Fitzgerald. Calvin. Bowe. Boldin. Marshall. VJax. Bowe. Austin. Colston. MWilliams. Dez. Some are better than others in certain categories, but they're all similar in terms of body type and in terms of how they get their results. Baldwin obviously doesn't have the agility of Boldin or the pure downfield speed of Calvin, but I still think he fits into the "big WR who can move" mold pretty well. I don't really see any other WRs in this class besides the top two guys who have such a compelling combination of draft pedigree, measurables, production, and eyeball test.
Rivers threw for 4710 and 30 TDs last year. I think there's enough there to make the #2 WR viable, and that's assuming that Gates has multiple good years left and Jackson signs a long term deal. If one or both of those things doesn't happen, Brown could end up being a primary target in a Rivers-led passing offense.Think Derrick Mason? Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Mason been the #1 WR on his team for 9 of the past 11 seasons? Not sure why you'd cite him as the comparison for a #2 type possession WR.Furthermore, you apparently are willing to just blow off Norv's history of #2 WRs.
yeah, Kolb in Philly seemed to be a lot more likely to be a success than Kolb elsewhereI still love Williams at 1.4, and think he's a steal any later.
I think you are ignoring the history of the Chargers offense. I also think you are assuming Brown will be the #2 WR, which I think is unlikely this year, and probably next year. I have posted a lot of facts so far, and you have consistently ignored them. As a Chargers fan, I hope I'm wrong and you are right.Rivers threw for 4710 and 30 TDs last year. I think there's enough there to make the #2 WR viable, and that's assuming that Gates has multiple good years left and Jackson signs a long term deal. If one or both of those things doesn't happen, Brown could end up being a primary target in a Rivers-led passing offense.Think Derrick Mason? Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Mason been the #1 WR on his team for 9 of the past 11 seasons? Not sure why you'd cite him as the comparison for a #2 type possession WR.Furthermore, you apparently are willing to just blow off Norv's history of #2 WRs.
The only year I find compelling to use to project the next 3-5 years of the SD passing offense is 2010. Without LT, the offense ran through Rivers more often, with him setting career highs in attempts and yards (but not an absurd increase). He did this with less than half of Vjax and half of Gates. I don't see why the 2011 and beyond Chargers have to adhere to any history of Norv's teams. Rivers is playing at a different level right now and he can elevate merely solid passcatchers into fantasy gold like Peyton/Brady/Brees haveI think you are ignoring the history of the Chargers offense. I also think you are assuming Brown will be the #2 WR, which I think is unlikely this year, and probably next year. I have posted a lot of facts so far, and you have consistently ignored them. As a Chargers fan, I hope I'm wrong and you are right.Rivers threw for 4710 and 30 TDs last year. I think there's enough there to make the #2 WR viable, and that's assuming that Gates has multiple good years left and Jackson signs a long term deal. If one or both of those things doesn't happen, Brown could end up being a primary target in a Rivers-led passing offense.Think Derrick Mason? Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Mason been the #1 WR on his team for 9 of the past 11 seasons? Not sure why you'd cite him as the comparison for a #2 type possession WR.Furthermore, you apparently are willing to just blow off Norv's history of #2 WRs.
That's a pretty simplistic view IMO. Norv has been coaching offenses for a long time. Seems inappropriate to ignore all of his history.The only year I find compelling to use to project the next 3-5 years of the SD passing offense is 2010. Without LT, the offense ran through Rivers more often, with him setting career highs in attempts and yards (but not an absurd increase). He did this with less than half of Vjax and half of Gates. I don't see why the 2011 and beyond Chargers have to adhere to any history of Norv's teams. Rivers is playing at a different level right now and he can elevate merely solid passcatchers into fantasy gold like Peyton/Brady/Brees haveI think you are ignoring the history of the Chargers offense. I also think you are assuming Brown will be the #2 WR, which I think is unlikely this year, and probably next year. I have posted a lot of facts so far, and you have consistently ignored them. As a Chargers fan, I hope I'm wrong and you are right.Rivers threw for 4710 and 30 TDs last year. I think there's enough there to make the #2 WR viable, and that's assuming that Gates has multiple good years left and Jackson signs a long term deal. If one or both of those things doesn't happen, Brown could end up being a primary target in a Rivers-led passing offense.Think Derrick Mason? Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Mason been the #1 WR on his team for 9 of the past 11 seasons? Not sure why you'd cite him as the comparison for a #2 type possession WR.Furthermore, you apparently are willing to just blow off Norv's history of #2 WRs.
I never thought about it that way. Vereen is an intriguing talent. I'm just having a hard time thinking about taking him in the top 10.
Very
On top of the fact that Haley "seems" to be the exact opposite kind of coach that a diva with apparent effort problems needs. Not saying he should get out of the first, but I would, and did, take Little and Cobb over him. We'll just have to see how it plays out. 
Further he's got real maturity issues and there are many in the scouting community who have categorized him as a 'me first' player. He strikes some as very much like Dwayne Bowe (not from a playing standpoint, but a maturity one) who may take several years to 'get it'. Going to Fitzgerald's camp is great. Hopefully he can progress quicker than Bowe did but I don't feel real confident about it.
Those who ignore history may be doomed to repeat it, but those who are so absorbed by history that they miss the present will sometimes sacrifice the future.That's a pretty simplistic view IMO. Norv has been coaching offenses for a long time. Seems inappropriate to ignore all of his history.The only year I find compelling to use to project the next 3-5 years of the SD passing offense is 2010. Without LT, the offense ran through Rivers more often, with him setting career highs in attempts and yards (but not an absurd increase). He did this with less than half of Vjax and half of Gates. I don't see why the 2011 and beyond Chargers have to adhere to any history of Norv's teams. Rivers is playing at a different level right now and he can elevate merely solid passcatchers into fantasy gold like Peyton/Brady/Brees haveI think you are ignoring the history of the Chargers offense. I also think you are assuming Brown will be the #2 WR, which I think is unlikely this year, and probably next year. I have posted a lot of facts so far, and you have consistently ignored them. As a Chargers fan, I hope I'm wrong and you are right.Rivers threw for 4710 and 30 TDs last year. I think there's enough there to make the #2 WR viable, and that's assuming that Gates has multiple good years left and Jackson signs a long term deal. If one or both of those things doesn't happen, Brown could end up being a primary target in a Rivers-led passing offense.Think Derrick Mason? Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Mason been the #1 WR on his team for 9 of the past 11 seasons? Not sure why you'd cite him as the comparison for a #2 type possession WR.Furthermore, you apparently are willing to just blow off Norv's history of #2 WRs.
Both had 25 TDs and 4000/3600 yards respectively. Of course I'd roll with E. Manning or Flacco as my #1 QB.
Fair enough. There are several reasons to think Shorts might have slipped past some NFL eyes. He was slow at the combine(4.59/4.61) but reports have his Pro Day 40 times as 4.35 and 4.41. He was slowed by a turf toe his senior year and pull a hamstring during East/West practice. Will McDonough of the Jags had this to say:
After watching tape on him he does lack a "wow" factor, but he's in a great situation, has much better than average hands and is a bright hard working kid. He certainly isn't a freakish athlete, but it does appear that earlier reports of him being slow were incorrect. With players from very small schools you want to see them dominate at that level, he had 78 TDs, almost 6,000 all purpose yards and 4,700+ receiving yards. He might be worth a look late in some rookie drafts.
We are working through some database issues as we open the site. Hoping to be ready for everyone to put rankings together shortly. My combined draft board (including IDPs) should be posted within 24 hours as something of a counterpoint to Bloom's stellar-as-usual work.
I'm not exactly sure, but one of the staff had mentioned something in a previous post about "the site not yet allowing" them to post their rookie rankings. I find that crazy, being that a good majority of rookie drafts have started or will start this week.
Another great job Sig. My only criticism is that there are to many FAs in place of talented defensive players and Julius Thomas now plays for John Fox.
The lack of the wow factor is damning for me mainly because he was playing Division III college football. Any potential pro contributor should really jump out at you and he didnt. Will be happy to eat crow if I am wrong
Im very much a minimal IDP guy in rookie drafts.Thomas going to Denver sucks, but the talent is there, of course it is there with Green too. Looks like Rosario and Barnidge all over again. Sigh.
Bloom has also updated his dynasty positional rankings to show where he fits rooks in among vets. Good to have a look.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=qb&type=dynasty&howrecent=14
Big disadvantage when you're facing Rodgers/Peyton/Brees/Brady/Vick/Rivers/Romo more than half the time in a 12 team league and still a good notch below Ryan and Ben and maybe even Schaub. Barely adequate and I know I'd be looking to upgrade if Flacco/Eli was my #1 and I didnt have Bradford/Freeman/Stafford in tow as an upside young backup.
I believe this only includes first and second day, and I havent really given the core rankings a good look in a month or so. expect some adjustments before these are final, but wanted to at least take a stab at it early.
Brown has me thinking of him as being similar to Marvin Harrison.Rivers threw for 4710 and 30 TDs last year. I think there's enough there to make the #2 WR viable, and that's assuming that Gates has multiple good years left and Jackson signs a long term deal. If one or both of those things doesn't happen, Brown could end up being a primary target in a Rivers-led passing offense.Think Derrick Mason? Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Mason been the #1 WR on his team for 9 of the past 11 seasons? Not sure why you'd cite him as the comparison for a #2 type possession WR.Furthermore, you apparently are willing to just blow off Norv's history of #2 WRs.
How do you take his QB play/play-calling into account? I have watched Baldwin play a few times, including at Utah (Brandon Burton). I have also seen most clips available on YouTube. It is hard for a guy to look very good when he is not being hit in stride--ever. I would like to see him be able to make a catch on a slant with room to make something happen. He didn't have that opportunity very often. I understand your concerns and think they are valid. They are reasons Green and Jones went ahead of him, rightfully so. I just don't see the argument for guys like Brown and even Cobb, whose ceilings seem to suggest WR2. I can see Baldwin establishing multiple niche areas in which he can excel: Redzone, intermediate possession, deep threat/jump ball. He is a very big target, with solid hands, who is fluid in the air, and fast enough to get down the field. WRs who can be both the deep threat and possession guy, or at least offer that potential, should be valued over those who look to provide one or the other, in my opinion.
Now we're getting into details but it would depend on the rest of your roster. I'm not saying one of those guys wouldn't be preferable, but if you've missed out on them then the names I've thrown out are viable starters.
It's three days after the draft. I've had three hours sleep a night until Sunday night. Like I've said before - I'll be throwing them up this weekend.
I looked up the history. Norv's #2 WRs:1991 - Cowboys - Alvin Harper, WR81, 38.6 fantasy points1992 - Cowboys - Alvin Harper, WR46, 81.7 fantasy points1993 - Cowboys - Alvin Harper, WR28, 107.7 fantasy points1994 - Redskins - Desmond Howard, WR33, 103.1 fantasy points1995 - Redskins - Michael Westbrook, WR54, 75.6 fantasy points1996 - Redskins - Leslie Shepherd, WR60, 74.0 fantasy points1997 - Redskins - Michael Westbrook, WR54, 72.8 fantasy points1998 - Redskins - Michael Westbrook, WR38, 110.7 fantasy points1999 - Redskins - Albert Connell, WR14, 156.0 fantasy points2000 - Redskins - Irving Fryar, WR50, 86.4 fantasy points2001 - Chargers - Jeff Graham, WR36, 111.1 fantasy points2002 - Dolphins - James McKnight, WR63, 70.6 fantasy points2003 - Dolphins - James McKnight, WR79, 54.0 fantasy points2004 - Raiders - Ronald Curry, WR20, 103.6 fantasy points2005 - Raiders - Jerry Porter, WR26, 123.4 fantasy points2006 - 49ers - Arnaz Battle, WR45, 89.1 fantasy points2007 - Chargers - Vincent Jackson, WR53, 80.3 fantasy points2008 - Chargers - Chris Chambers, WR52, 76.3 fantasy points2009 - Chargers - Malcom Floyd, WR53, 83.6 fantasy points2010 - Chargers - Patrick Crayton, WR77, 57.6 fantasy points7 top 40 WRs in 20 seasons. That's more than I expected. Unsurprisingly, it appears in most of those cases there was not a strong TE. (I know there are some issues with using this group as a comparison.)Those who ignore history may be doomed to repeat it, but those who are so absorbed by history that they miss the present will sometimes sacrifice the future.That's a pretty simplistic view IMO. Norv has been coaching offenses for a long time. Seems inappropriate to ignore all of his history.The only year I find compelling to use to project the next 3-5 years of the SD passing offense is 2010. Without LT, the offense ran through Rivers more often, with him setting career highs in attempts and yards (but not an absurd increase). He did this with less than half of Vjax and half of Gates. I don't see why the 2011 and beyond Chargers have to adhere to any history of Norv's teams. Rivers is playing at a different level right now and he can elevate merely solid passcatchers into fantasy gold like Peyton/Brady/Brees haveI think you are ignoring the history of the Chargers offense. I also think you are assuming Brown will be the #2 WR, which I think is unlikely this year, and probably next year. I have posted a lot of facts so far, and you have consistently ignored them. As a Chargers fan, I hope I'm wrong and you are right.Rivers threw for 4710 and 30 TDs last year. I think there's enough there to make the #2 WR viable, and that's assuming that Gates has multiple good years left and Jackson signs a long term deal. If one or both of those things doesn't happen, Brown could end up being a primary target in a Rivers-led passing offense.Think Derrick Mason? Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Mason been the #1 WR on his team for 9 of the past 11 seasons? Not sure why you'd cite him as the comparison for a #2 type possession WR.Furthermore, you apparently are willing to just blow off Norv's history of #2 WRs.
Wallace as WR17! Wow. Why are you so down on him?
I advise you to read the entirety of Garda's post and not stop at the first comma. Looking back at history is a good way of making predictions, but that'll only get you so far. You shouldn't be making predictions based 100% on history without looking at the present and future at all.
I advise you to read all of my posts on Brown and not just a couple of them, and I advise you to read them all the way to the end. If you do so you will see that I have commented on reasons other than Norv's history. You will also see that I pointed out that the rate of success of Norv's #2 WRs was higher than I expected when I compiled them.I'm not making any predictions based 100% on any single factor.
I've read every word in this thread, and I think you're opinion of Brown can be pretty well summed up in this quote of yours:'Just Win Baby said:
Basically the only thing you've said that doesn't revolve around historical WR2 data of Norv Turner offenses is that although you acknowledge Sproles will be leaving the team and Gates is getting older you don't think WR targets will increase, and that you think Vincent Brown is going to have a tough time moving up the depth chart because people are underrating Malcolm Floyd, Seyi Ajirotutu, and Patrick Crayton. And personally, I find these 2 things hard to believe.
Fair enough. Apparently I am on an island in my opinions about Brown's likelihood of being startable within three years.I have been one of the few Floyd supporters around here for a while now. One thing you didn't mention that I also posted earlier in the thread is that I am under the impression that Brown does not have the ability/speed to get deep effectively, which would limit his ability to surpass Floyd (at least) on the depth chart and/or to ultimately be the Chargers' #1 WR. I'm not completely sure about this, but no one has posted to contradict that.I believe I also mentioned Norv's desire for a balanced offense, but it wasn't really discussed. The passing attempts have been up the past two years. IMO Norv would prefer to pass a bit less, and the passing attempts will probably go back down a bit if the Chargers can improve their running game, which is another small factor that could hold down the WR targets.We'll see.
Why so down on Helu? I can see not being as enthused about him as others, but 50 for for him is pretty much putting a guy on your do not draft list.
I think any QB you draft is not really going to pay huge dividends until year three anyway. In deep (14-16) leagues with taxi squads, Mallett is perfect for stashing away to see how he develops. He increased in value because despite dropping in the draft, he ended up in a great QB organization with a terrific mentor.
Straight line runner with only build up speed and little subtlety to his game. Heck, ranking him 30th is pretty much the do not draft list for him
In deep dynasty leagues if they think he even has a chance of being a starter in 3 or 4 years he will be drafted and held on too. In my zealots league which has 53 player rosters, I held onto Aaron Rodgers from his rookie year waiting for Favre to move on or retire. Even after everyone was calling him a bust I refused to release him or trade him. So in deep leagues like zealots Mallett will have some value and get drafted. He is on a great team and can learn from one of the best QB's ever. Sure he may not work out but I would rather take a chance draft him and hope that he works out late in a dynasty draft if he is still available. I won't spend a 1st or 2nd round on the guy and probably not a 3rd but if he were available in the 4th then I would take a chance on Mallett.
I understand he's got some value in DEEP leagues, but these sorts of rankings should reflect more normal sized leagues. IN my 12 team, 21-24 man roster dynasty's, there's no way I could keep a guy like this on a roster UNLESS I also had Brady....maybe (like my backup is Gradkowski or someone similar). He's simply ranked too high because he's unrosterable in many, if not MOST dynasty leagues.
These rankings are designed for deep leagues - is there any other kind of league that needs rookie rankings to go to 100?
Fair enough!
