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Post Draft Dynasty Rookie Rankings (1 Viewer)

dcarrbaby

Footballguy
I have not seen an official thread on this yet, so I'll start it up.

RB:

G. Bernard (CIN)

E. Lacy (GBP)

L. Bell (PIT)

M. Ball (DEN)

M. Lattimore (SF)

C. Michael (SEA)

Z. Stacy (STL)

K. Davis (KCC)

J. Franklin (GBP)

S. Taylor (ARZ)

J. Randle (DAL)

M. Gillislee (MIA)

WR:

T. Austin (STL)

C. Patterson (MIN)

D. Hopkins (HOU)

J. Hunter (TEN)

K. Allen (SDC)

R. Woods (BUF)

A. Dobson (NEP)

M. Wheaton (PIT)

J. Boyce (NEP)

T. Williams (DAL)

Q. Patton (SF)

C. Harper (SEA)

K. Stills (NOS)

S. Bailey (STL)

M. Goodwin (BUF)

A. Sanders (JAX)

R. Swope (ARZ)

D. Rogers (BUF)

QB:

EJ Manuel (BUF)

G. Smith (NYJ)

T. Wilson (OAK)

M. Barkley (PHI)

M. Glennon (TBB)

TE:

T. Eifert (CIN)

Z. Ertz (PHI)

T. Kelce (KCC)

J. Reed (WAS)

G. Escobar (DAL)

 
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FUBAR

Footballguy
C Johnson above Boyce or at least in same tier

I have Patterson as my top WR.

otherwise can't disagree. The fun part is ranking between positions

 

thriftyrocker

Footballguy
Nice list.

Unless it's a return yardage league I don't think Sanders has any value, and someone like King or Hamilton should be listed instead.

 

cowtown

Footballguy
RB's haven't changed for me in the top 5. Inn going Lacy, Bernard, Lattimore, Ball, Bell. I'll always take talent over situation and not plan on them starting this year.

 

cstu

Footballguy
RB's haven't changed for me in the top 5. Inn going Lacy, Bernard, Lattimore, Ball, Bell. I'll always take talent over situation and not plan on them starting this year.
My take as well. Michael is interesting but might take longer to get on the field than Lattimore. Big dropoff after RB6.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Just got my preliminary rookie rankings up on the site. Right now, the two biggest factors in the rankings are draft position and situation (including competition). Obviously these are immediate reactions and there'll be a lot of shuffling going on as my instinctual impressions give way to more informed and educated opinions, but I think these serve as a good starting point.

Tavon Austin

Gio Bernard

DeAndre Hopkins

Cordarrelle Patterson

Montee Ball

LeVeon Bell

Tyler Eifert

Eddie Lacy

Justin Hunter

Robert Woods

Zach Ertz

Stedman Bailey

Marcus Lattimore

Jordan Reed

Knile Davis

Keenan Allen

Gavin Escobar

EJ Manuel

Geno Smith

Vance McDonald

Aaron Dobson

Marquise Goodwin

Markus Wheaton

Levine Toilolo

Matt Barkley

Christine Michael

Jonathan Franklin

Mike Gillislee

Joseph Randle

Denard Robinson

Tavarres King

Tyler Wilson

Travis Kelce

Dion Sims

Stepfan Taylor

Terrance Williams

Da'Rick Rogers

Theo Riddick

Kenny Stills

Ace Sanders

 

werdnoynek

Footballguy
Just got my preliminary rookie rankings up on the site. Right now, the two biggest factors in the rankings are draft position and situation (including competition). Obviously these are immediate reactions and there'll be a lot of shuffling going on as my instinctual impressions give way to more informed and educated opinions, but I think these serve as a good starting point.

Tavon Austin

Gio Bernard

DeAndre Hopkins

Cordarrelle Patterson

Montee Ball

LeVeon Bell

Tyler Eifert

Eddie Lacy

Justin Hunter

Robert Woods

Zach Ertz

Stedman Bailey

Marcus Lattimore

Jordan Reed

Knile Davis

Keenan Allen

Gavin Escobar

EJ Manuel

Geno Smith

Vance McDonald

Aaron Dobson

Marquise Goodwin

Markus Wheaton

Levine Toilolo

Matt Barkley

Christine Michael

Jonathan Franklin

Mike Gillislee

Joseph Randle

Denard Robinson

Tavarres King

Tyler Wilson

Travis Kelce

Dion Sims

Stepfan Taylor

Terrance Williams

Da'Rick Rogers

Theo Riddick

Kenny Stills

Ace Sanders
I didn't see Zac Stacy - where would you throw him in there?

 

EBF

Footballguy
Still working through things.

I think Eifert might end up being the top player on my board, which feels totally ridiculous, but there's just nobody else out there at RB or WR that I really like.

What I look for in a top prospect is...

- High draft position.

- Solid workout numbers.

- Good college production.

- Passes the eyeball test.

Eifert is the one guy this year who checks every box. Looking at the other guys...

Austin - Smurf frame. Totally unorthodox game, which could be a positive or a negative. Sky high draft position. Lack of historical comparisons worries me. And for all the positives and the plaudits from pundits and scouts, he really doesn't wow me as much as I'd expect a top 10 pick with 4.3 speed to.

Hopkins - First round pick. Really solid player. Great production. Good hands and route running. The simple issue is that he doesn't have "wow" qualities as an athlete. Timed speed is a little below average. Jumps at the combine did not reflect a great deal of explosiveness. Solid, but not amazing to me in the eyeball test. My hunch is that he'll end up being a very good #2 WR. That's a nice thing to have on your roster, but there are several players in this draft with similar upside who will be available 5-15 picks later in your rookie draft.

Patterson - Has the draft position and the measurables of a difference maker. Very unproven as a WR and the skills that get people excited (open field ability, return skills) about him aren't necessarily things that will dictate his receiving numbers. A boom-or-bust pick in my view. He could be great or he could be pretty useless.

Running Backs (Bernard, Bell, Ball, Lacy) - I have specific reservations about each of these guys, but the one general concern with all of them is that they were not first round NFL draft picks. Historically, the odds of success for a 2nd rounder are significantly lower. So while I think all four of these guys went to good situations where they have a chance to make an immediate impact, none of them are special talents in my view. If you take them, you risk ending up with a Hardesty/Pead/Shelton. That risk is worth the potential reward of a MJD/McCoy/Rice if you're sold on one or more of these guys, but personally there's nobody in this group that I completely trust.

The fact that TE isn't a premium position in most leagues limits Eifert's value, but to me he's the best player in the group and the best pick if you're looking for more of a sure thing and less of a home run. After him I'd probably have Lacy, Hopkins, Austin, and Patterson rounding out my top 5.

 
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FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
The problem with Eifert is that he basically has to become Gronk/Graham to come anywhere near justifying a pick that high. You mention that the success rate isn't great on 2nd round running backs, but it's even lower (significantly) on TEs putting up 1200/15. Eifert's bust potential is higher, IMO. Maybe not in NFL terms, but in fantasy terms. If he's merely a good player, then he's a fantasy bust as an early rookie pick. There are 12 teams in a typical league and 15+ "good" tight ends. How much are Brent Celek or Jermaine Gresham worth in your league? Eifert becoming that kind of player is nearly as detrimental as a RB who falls flat on his face, and it's much more likely. Eifert may be more of a "sure thing" to at least be useful, but what value does that have when a useful TE has no value? You could probably move a 3rd round pick for a solid, useful TE and be done with it. Additionally, that 2nd round bust rate for running backs includes all 2nd round running backs, including ones that were drafted into a position where they'd never have a chance or as a known role player. I'd imagine that the bust rate for 2nd round running backs drafted into good situations is a bit better. I know you're big on trade value, EBF, which makes it even more surprising to me that you have Eifert that high. Unless he puts up 1000/10 right out of the gate, which is extremely unlikely, his trade value will almost immediately become nil.

 
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EBF

Footballguy
The problem with Eifert is that he basically has to become Gronk/Graham to come anywhere near justifying a pick that high. You mention that the success rate isn't great on 2nd round running backs, but it's even lower (significantly) on TEs putting up 1200/15. Eifert's bust potential is higher, IMO. Maybe not in NFL terms, but in fantasy terms. If he's merely a good player, then he's a fantasy bust as an early rookie pick. There are 12 teams in a typical league and 15+ "good" tight ends. How much are Brent Celek or Jermaine Gresham worth in your league? Eifert becoming that kind of player is nearly as detrimental as a RB who falls flat on his face, and it's much more likely. Eifert may be more of a "sure thing" to at least be useful, but what value does that have when a useful TE has no value? You could probably move a 3rd round pick for a solid, useful TE and be done with it. Additionally, that 2nd round bust rate for running backs includes all 2nd round running backs, including ones that were drafted into a position where they'd never have a chance or as a known role player. I'd imagine that the bust rate for 2nd round running backs drafted into good situations is a bit better. I know you're big on trade value, EBF, which makes it even more surprising to me that you have Eifert that high. Unless he puts up 1000/10 right out of the gate, which is extremely unlikely, his trade value will almost immediately become nil.
You're totally right and that's the problem with the high picks this year. I really think it's a lose-lose proposition no matter who you take. No doubt the major FF upside resides in guys like Patterson, Lacy, and Austin. If that's what you covet then swing away. There are 5-6 guys who have a decent case for going #1 and I wouldn't criticize anyone for choosing the instant boom potential and greater trade value of the RB/WR. We know that Eifert isn't going to be as valuable as the best WR or the best RB from this class when the dust settles. We also know that right this minute Lacy/Patterson/Austin are going to command more value in a trade. The issue is that I don't know which RB or WR is ultimately going to pan out, whereas I'm pretty certain that Eifert will be a good player. His range of outcomes to me is somewhere between Greg Olsen and Jason Witten.The team that picks the right WR or RB will crush the value of the team that takes Eifert, but the team that takes Eifert will crush the value of the team that ends up with the DHB/Shelton/Pead of this year's crew. Lower upside, but less volatility could equate to the same overall expected value when you weigh the prospect of taking Eifert vs. the prospect of picking from Hopkins/Patterson/Lacy/Ball/Bernard/etc and hoping that you got the right one.

 
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werdnoynek

Footballguy
Austin - Smurf frame. Totally unorthodox game, which could be a positive or a negative. Sky high draft position. Lack of historical comparisons worries me. And for all the positives and the plaudits from pundits and scouts, he really doesn't wow me as much as I'd expect a top 10 pick with 4.3 speed to.

Patterson - Has the draft position and the measurables of a difference maker. Very unproven as a WR and the skills that get people excited (open field ability, return skills) about him aren't necessarily things that will dictate his receiving numbers. A boom-or-bust pick in my view. He could be great or he could be pretty useless.
Between these two guys - I'm leaning more towards Patterson. His ceiling is an elite #1 WR in this league - a cross between Dez & Demaryius IMO. I really do like Austin and he will probably be more productive early on, but will he ever be an elite #1 receiver for fantasy? I just don't see it. The lack of historical comp's scares me too EBF. For redraft I'd take Austin this season but in dynasty, I just cant talk myself into taking him over Patterson.

Thoughts?

 

BlackMamba24

Footballguy
i was hoping Eifert would land elsewhere, didn't like that he went to Cinci with Gresham already there. I guess there isn't a true #2 WR there in cinci though unless Sanu/Jones can fill that role.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Austin - Smurf frame. Totally unorthodox game, which could be a positive or a negative. Sky high draft position. Lack of historical comparisons worries me. And for all the positives and the plaudits from pundits and scouts, he really doesn't wow me as much as I'd expect a top 10 pick with 4.3 speed to.

Patterson - Has the draft position and the measurables of a difference maker. Very unproven as a WR and the skills that get people excited (open field ability, return skills) about him aren't necessarily things that will dictate his receiving numbers. A boom-or-bust pick in my view. He could be great or he could be pretty useless.
Between these two guys - I'm leaning more towards Patterson. His ceiling is an elite #1 WR in this league - a cross between Dez & Demaryius IMO. I really do like Austin and he will probably be more productive early on, but will he ever be an elite #1 receiver for fantasy? I just don't see it. The lack of historical comp's scares me too EBF. For redraft I'd take Austin this season but in dynasty, I just cant talk myself into taking him over Patterson.

Thoughts?
I don't think I have the answer this year. Dez and Demaryius are two guys that I liked almost immediately when I saw them in action.

Patterson has been more of an acquired taste for me. There's no doubt that he has dynamic qualities as an athlete. He's got everything you want from a height/weight/speed standpoint and his open field moves are great at times. Despite all that, I still have a hard time fully committing to the hype.

He's not as accomplished as Dez or Demaryius purely as a receiver. Dez had amazing jump ball skills and hands. He wasn't just an athlete. He was a great natural receiver. Demaryius was more of a hidden gem because his team didn't pass as much, but you could see a lot of the same skills. He managed to top 1000 yards in his last season despite hardly getting any monster. Just a monster athlete. Little man in a big man's body. Patterson at this point is more of a "weapon" than a pure receiver. Does he have the chops to eventually become a devastating route runner who can catch everything? That's the million dollar question.

I think he fits the #1 receiver prototype better than Austin, but can't say I clearly prefer him. I rate Austin lower than a typical top 10 WR and I'm not as high on Patterson as I would expect to be given his draft slot and combine profile. They're both tough projections in my view. It's just a weird draft for me and that's why I'm gravitating towards the safe, but very boring and conservative pick in Eifert.

 

ConnSKINS26

Footballguy
I've been a Lacy guy since day one. I've been an Austin doubter since the beginning as well. But now that I know where he landed, I have a really hard time not having more confidence in Austin. Because the template for his usage has already been figured out by the Rams--look at how they used Amendola. And Austin with Amendola's targets could be PPR gold.

So then there's two questions--

1. Tavon's health. And do I really want to gamble on him staying healthy? Conversely, do I really want to gamble that he won't stay healthy?

2. Will Austin get Amendola's ridiculous number of targets, with all the other developing receivers in STL? He's got to split the pie with Givens, Patton, Quick, and Cook at the least. Cook specifically was thought to be brought in to do what he did in TEN--man the slot much of the time. He can't block, so it's not like they can turn him into a traditional in-line TE now that they've paid him.

Part of me thinks Bradford won't be able to help himself. He'll target Austin 10 times a game. The rest of me still loves Lacy, and I always thought Franklin was super overhyped and a completely average talent.

So I'm stuck, completely.

 

Faust

MVP
http://blogs.nfl.com/2013/04/26/nfl-fantasy-eifert-drafted-to-complement-gresham/

Excerpt:

NFL fantasy: Eifert drafted to complement Gresham

Two tight ends for Bengals?: When the Cincinnati Bengals selected Tyler Eifert in the first round of the draft, the immediate question was “What does this mean for Jermaine Gresham?” According to offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, it means the two players could be on the field at the same time. It also means Gresham is likely to lose a few targets. The Bengals offense is certainly upgraded, but not enough to make this pair of tight ends anything more than No. 2 options in most fantasy formats.
 

lyon812

Footballguy
Adam Harstad said:
Just got my preliminary rookie rankings up on the site. Right now, the two biggest factors in the rankings are draft position and situation (including competition). Obviously these are immediate reactions and there'll be a lot of shuffling going on as my instinctual impressions give way to more informed and educated opinions, but I think these serve as a good starting point.

Tavon Austin

Gio Bernard

DeAndre Hopkins

Cordarrelle Patterson

Montee Ball

LeVeon Bell

Tyler Eifert

Eddie Lacy

Justin Hunter

Robert Woods

Zach Ertz

Stedman Bailey

Marcus Lattimore

Jordan Reed

Knile Davis

Keenan Allen

Gavin Escobar

EJ Manuel

Geno Smith

Vance McDonald

Aaron Dobson

Marquise Goodwin

Markus Wheaton

Levine Toilolo

Matt Barkley

Christine Michael

Jonathan Franklin

Mike Gillislee

Joseph Randle

Denard Robinson

Tavarres King

Tyler Wilson

Travis Kelce

Dion Sims

Stepfan Taylor

Terrance Williams

Da'Rick Rogers

Theo Riddick

Kenny Stills

Ace Sanders
Is your low ranking of Kelce due to situation or talent? I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a favorite target of Smith.

 

Time Kibitzer

Footballguy
I've been a Lacy guy since day one. I've been an Austin doubter since the beginning as well. But now that I know where he landed, I have a really hard time not having more confidence in Austin. Because the template for his usage has already been figured out by the Rams--look at how they used Amendola. And Austin with Amendola's targets could be PPR gold.So then there's two questions--1. Tavon's health. And do I really want to gamble on him staying healthy? Conversely, do I really want to gamble that he won't stay healthy?2. Will Austin get Amendola's ridiculous number of targets, with all the other developing receivers in STL? He's got to split the pie with Givens, Patton, Quick, and Cook at the least. Cook specifically was thought to be brought in to do what he did in TEN--man the slot much of the time. He can't block, so it's not like they can turn him into a traditional in-line TE now that they've paid him.Part of me thinks Bradford won't be able to help himself. He'll target Austin 10 times a game. The rest of me still loves Lacy, and I always thought Franklin was super overhyped and a completely average talent.So I'm stuck, completely.
:goodposting: Great post, I agree with everything you said here.

 

Pura Vida

Footballguy
Id put Bell #1. He has very little competition for carries. I am worried about Tyler Eifert. His blocking is so phenomenal that he could catch 'vernon davis' disease. I think Ertz will be better fantasy wise.

 

HPD

Footballguy
i have the 1.1 in a TE premium league and thinking that Eifert could just be the way to go. Small receivers like Austin scare me. He may not be able to get off the line in press coverage

 
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RavenLunatic

Footballguy
I have a very solid top 3 in PPR: AustinBernardPatterson
I'd have to agree here. I'd put Bernard above Austin if not for the fact that Austin will likely get a Sproles type of workload at the WR designation...and in my league that means twice the points per reception.
 

kutta

Footballguy
I have a very solid top 3 in PPR:

Austin

Bernard

Patterson
I know I sound like everyone else here, but I like Bell and Ball too. Lacy scares me too much, so he's not in my top five. I have hard time ranking these guys, but if push came to shove, I'd go:

Austin

Bell

Ball

Paterson

Bernard

 
Austin - Smurf frame. Totally unorthodox game, which could be a positive or a negative. Sky high draft position. Lack of historical comparisons worries me. And for all the positives and the plaudits from pundits and scouts, he really doesn't wow me as much as I'd expect a top 10 pick with 4.3 speed to.

Patterson - Has the draft position and the measurables of a difference maker. Very unproven as a WR and the skills that get people excited (open field ability, return skills) about him aren't necessarily things that will dictate his receiving numbers. A boom-or-bust pick in my view. He could be great or he could be pretty useless.
Between these two guys - I'm leaning more towards Patterson. His ceiling is an elite #1 WR in this league - a cross between Dez & Demaryius IMO. I really do like Austin and he will probably be more productive early on, but will he ever be an elite #1 receiver for fantasy? I just don't see it. The lack of historical comp's scares me too EBF. For redraft I'd take Austin this season but in dynasty, I just cant talk myself into taking him over Patterson.

Thoughts?
Werk, I know we haven't seen eye to eye on most things lately.....but I agree 100% with every word you say here. Patterson has the talent to be elite, Austin doesn't. I'd take Patterson 1.01 if you have room to assume the risk that comes with him. I'd take Austin if you want a solid WR2, with low end WR1 upside.

Take Patterson if you are going for a homerun. Take Austin if you like settling for a double.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Adam Harstad said:
Just got my preliminary rookie rankings up on the site. Right now, the two biggest factors in the rankings are draft position and situation (including competition). Obviously these are immediate reactions and there'll be a lot of shuffling going on as my instinctual impressions give way to more informed and educated opinions, but I think these serve as a good starting point.

Tavon Austin

Gio Bernard

DeAndre Hopkins

Cordarrelle Patterson

Montee Ball

LeVeon Bell

Tyler Eifert

Eddie Lacy

Justin Hunter

Robert Woods

Zach Ertz

Stedman Bailey

Marcus Lattimore

Jordan Reed

Knile Davis

Keenan Allen

Gavin Escobar

EJ Manuel

Geno Smith

Vance McDonald

Aaron Dobson

Marquise Goodwin

Markus Wheaton

Levine Toilolo

Matt Barkley

Christine Michael

Jonathan Franklin

Mike Gillislee

Joseph Randle

Denard Robinson

Tavarres King

Tyler Wilson

Travis Kelce

Dion Sims

Stepfan Taylor

Terrance Williams

Da'Rick Rogers

Theo Riddick

Kenny Stills

Ace Sanders
I didn't see Zac Stacy - where would you throw him in there?
FBGs' rankings viewer cuts off my list at 40. Stacy currently sits at 47 in my rankings.

Adam Harstad said:
Just got my preliminary rookie rankings up on the site. Right now, the two biggest factors in the rankings are draft position and situation (including competition). Obviously these are immediate reactions and there'll be a lot of shuffling going on as my instinctual impressions give way to more informed and educated opinions, but I think these serve as a good starting point.

Tavon Austin

Gio Bernard

DeAndre Hopkins

Cordarrelle Patterson

Montee Ball

LeVeon Bell

Tyler Eifert

Eddie Lacy

Justin Hunter

Robert Woods

Zach Ertz

Stedman Bailey

Marcus Lattimore

Jordan Reed

Knile Davis

Keenan Allen

Gavin Escobar

EJ Manuel

Geno Smith

Vance McDonald

Aaron Dobson

Marquise Goodwin

Markus Wheaton

Levine Toilolo

Matt Barkley

Christine Michael

Jonathan Franklin

Mike Gillislee

Joseph Randle

Denard Robinson

Tavarres King

Tyler Wilson

Travis Kelce

Dion Sims

Stepfan Taylor

Terrance Williams

Da'Rick Rogers

Theo Riddick

Kenny Stills

Ace Sanders
Is your low ranking of Kelce due to situation or talent? I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a favorite target of Smith.
It's a combination of 3 things. Draft position (5th TE off the board, and I like a couple of the later guys' talent/situation better), situation (KC is not an explosive offense, Bowe will eat up a lot of the passing game, and I like Moeaki as a player), and position (TE is not a premium position- you need huge production to be fantasy relevant, so I tend to prefer higher-upside guys like Reed and whoever lands in Atlanta).


 

ConnSKINS26

Footballguy
I have the 1.01 in one league, and like I said above, I'm split right down the middle between Lacy and Austin. Worse, I'm coming off of a championship and need one of these guys to be an every-week starter while I'm in my window (not that my roster is old, it's just shallow). And worse still, I'm not sure I can trade it for something that helps me win now any better than one of them would--just not sure which to pick.

So my rankings are too fluid to help anyone right now, much less myself. Tough position to be in. Luckily I got the 1.01 and 2.01 for Mathews and a 2015 1st and 2nd a couple months ago. But still, it's a conundrum, and the decision will have a lasting impact.

Part of me wonders if I should take the commodity that will have the most trade value by August/September so that I can flip that player for a better win-now option once everyone forgets they're technically buying the 1.01 in a weak class--at that time they'll be buying a player with hopefully lots of preseason hype.

Anyone else feeling like this? That moving the player you pick at 1.01 in a couple months is a better gamble/move than just trading the 1.01 right now? Assuming you don't love the player you pick anyways, or assuming you're trying to win now.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Kelce is like a Gronk-lite. A lot of the same strengths/weaknesses. Not the most fluid, graceful athlete. A bit of an upright style and could have some injury issues. However, there are dynamic qualities. Very good vertical speed, as evidenced by his 4.6 40 time and 10'4" broad jump. Outstanding production last season. More receiving yards than Aaron Dobson and Cordarrelle Patterson. He's got some character/durability stuff and he's not going to win a lot of style points, but he has a chance to be a pretty good FF TE in spurts.

My rankings aren't done yet, but he's likely going to check in as a top 20-25 pick. Escobar is more fluid and more impressive on tape in some ways, but lacks real burst. McDonald is an excellent athlete in his own right. I'm not sure his receiving skills are on par with those other two though. As for Reed, he's interesting because he's a pure pass catcher. That will be his entire bread and butter at the next level, so there's some upside there. The risk is that he's so small he'll be nearly useless as a blocker, which could put a cap on his snap count unless the Skins really love him.

This is a pretty good TE class and even with the reduced value of the position, I would think about taking some of these guys ahead of most of those 4th-7th round RBs and WRs. I have guys like Gillislee and Goodwin being almost DOA worthless, but that's just my take.

 

comfortably numb

Footballguy
The problem with Eifert is that he basically has to become Gronk/Graham to come anywhere near justifying a pick that high.

You mention that the success rate isn't great on 2nd round running backs, but it's even lower (significantly) on TEs putting up 1200/15. Eifert's bust potential is higher, IMO. Maybe not in NFL terms, but in fantasy terms. If he's merely a good player, then he's a fantasy bust as an early rookie pick. There are 12 teams in a typical league and 15+ "good" tight ends. How much are Brent Celek or Jermaine Gresham worth in your league? Eifert becoming that kind of player is nearly as detrimental as a RB who falls flat on his face, and it's much more likely. Eifert may be more of a "sure thing" to at least be useful, but what value does that have when a useful TE has no value? You could probably move a 3rd round pick for a solid, useful TE and be done with it.

Additionally, that 2nd round bust rate for running backs includes all 2nd round running backs, including ones that were drafted into a position where they'd never have a chance or as a known role player. I'd imagine that the bust rate for 2nd round running backs drafted into good situations is a bit better.

I know you're big on trade value, EBF, which makes it even more surprising to me that you have Eifert that high. Unless he puts up 1000/10 right out of the gate, which is extremely unlikely, his trade value will almost immediately become nil.
With regards to Gresham/Eifert anything to see here in Gresham's contract as he goes into his final year in 2014 set to make roughly 2.3M?

8/2/2010: Signed a five-year, $15.85 million contract.

The deal contains $9.6 million guaranteed.

Another $2.7 million is available through incentives.

2013: $975,500 (+ $100,000 workout bonus)

2014: $2,135,750 (+ $200,000 workout bonus)

2015: Free Agent

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
Anyone else feeling like this? That moving the player you pick at 1.01 in a couple months is a better gamble/move than just trading the 1.01 right now? Assuming you don't love the player you pick anyways, or assuming you're trying to win now.
It's obviously nowhere near exact, but I think you'd likely get more moving the pick. Potential suitors for the 1.01 include anyone high on ANY rookie in this class. Potential suitors after you execute the pick include a smaller subset of guys high on that individual player. Very generally I think the best time to trade a rookie pick is when that pick is on the clock.
 

cstu

Footballguy
The problem with Eifert is that he basically has to become Gronk/Graham to come anywhere near justifying a pick that high.

You mention that the success rate isn't great on 2nd round running backs, but it's even lower (significantly) on TEs putting up 1200/15. Eifert's bust potential is higher, IMO. Maybe not in NFL terms, but in fantasy terms. If he's merely a good player, then he's a fantasy bust as an early rookie pick. There are 12 teams in a typical league and 15+ "good" tight ends. How much are Brent Celek or Jermaine Gresham worth in your league? Eifert becoming that kind of player is nearly as detrimental as a RB who falls flat on his face, and it's much more likely. Eifert may be more of a "sure thing" to at least be useful, but what value does that have when a useful TE has no value? You could probably move a 3rd round pick for a solid, useful TE and be done with it.

Additionally, that 2nd round bust rate for running backs includes all 2nd round running backs, including ones that were drafted into a position where they'd never have a chance or as a known role player. I'd imagine that the bust rate for 2nd round running backs drafted into good situations is a bit better.

I know you're big on trade value, EBF, which makes it even more surprising to me that you have Eifert that high. Unless he puts up 1000/10 right out of the gate, which is extremely unlikely, his trade value will almost immediately become nil.
With regards to Gresham/Eifert anything to see here in Gresham's contract as he goes into his final year in 2014 set to make roughly 2.3M?

8/2/2010: Signed a five-year, $15.85 million contract.

The deal contains $9.6 million guaranteed.

Another $2.7 million is available through incentives.

2013: $975,500 (+ $100,000 workout bonus)

2014: $2,135,750 (+ $200,000 workout bonus)

2015: Free Agent
I think it's still rather cheap after seeing what other TE's got this year.

 

Kleck

Footballguy
Kelce is like a Gronk-lite. A lot of the same strengths/weaknesses. Not the most fluid, graceful athlete. A bit of an upright style and could have some injury issues. However, there are dynamic qualities. Very good vertical speed, as evidenced by his 4.6 40 time and 10'4" broad jump. Outstanding production last season. More receiving yards than Aaron Dobson and Cordarrelle Patterson. He's got some character/durability stuff and he's not going to win a lot of style points, but he has a chance to be a pretty good FF TE in spurts.

My rankings aren't done yet, but he's likely going to check in as a top 20-25 pick. Escobar is more fluid and more impressive on tape in some ways, but lacks real burst. McDonald is an excellent athlete in his own right. I'm not sure his receiving skills are on par with those other two though. As for Reed, he's interesting because he's a pure pass catcher. That will be his entire bread and butter at the next level, so there's some upside there. The risk is that he's so small he'll be nearly useless as a blocker, which could put a cap on his snap count unless the Skins really love him.

This is a pretty good TE class and even with the reduced value of the position, I would think about taking some of these guys ahead of most of those 4th-7th round RBs and WRs. I have guys like Gillislee and Goodwin being almost DOA worthless, but that's just my take.
Nice write up on Kelce. I'm a big fan and he's easily my #2 TE this year and in my top 20. Took him at 2.12 in a recent draft that will be switching to PPR (1.5 TE) in 2014. Value wise, I'll take Kelce over Eifert. I see TE#1 upside with Kelce at a much cheaper cost. I do prefer Eifert, but not by enough for me to risk an early/mid 1st on him when I can get Kelce 15-20 picks later.

 

ConnSKINS26

Footballguy
Kelce is like a Gronk-lite. A lot of the same strengths/weaknesses. Not the most fluid, graceful athlete. A bit of an upright style and could have some injury issues. However, there are dynamic qualities. Very good vertical speed, as evidenced by his 4.6 40 time and 10'4" broad jump. Outstanding production last season. More receiving yards than Aaron Dobson and Cordarrelle Patterson. He's got some character/durability stuff and he's not going to win a lot of style points, but he has a chance to be a pretty good FF TE in spurts. My rankings aren't done yet, but he's likely going to check in as a top 20-25 pick. Escobar is more fluid and more impressive on tape in some ways, but lacks real burst. McDonald is an excellent athlete in his own right. I'm not sure his receiving skills are on par with those other two though. As for Reed, he's interesting because he's a pure pass catcher. That will be his entire bread and butter at the next level, so there's some upside there. The risk is that he's so small he'll be nearly useless as a blocker, which could put a cap on his snap count unless the Skins really love him. This is a pretty good TE class and even with the reduced value of the position, I would think about taking some of these guys ahead of most of those 4th-7th round RBs and WRs. I have guys like Gillislee and Goodwin being almost DOA worthless, but that's just my take.
Nice write up on Kelce. I'm a big fan and he's easily my #2 TE this year and in my top 20. Took him at 2.12 in a recent draft that will be switching to PPR (1.5 TE) in 2014. Value wise, I'll take Kelce over Eifert. I see TE#1 upside with Kelce at a much cheaper cost. I do prefer Eifert, but not by enough for me to risk an early/mid 1st on him when I can get Kelce 15-20 picks later.
Great post, been saying this for months. I took Kelce at the 3.1 in a 14 team league before the NFL draft and was delighted to see him go somewhere without an entrenched starter, or even an average starter. I don't think Eifert ever breaks into the top-5, so I'd much rather spend a pick 1-2 rounds later to get Kelce who I think can fairly easily crack the top-10 in the coming years. Especially since the Cheifs have Bowe....Baldwin?....and a couple slot receivers to target. The opportunity is there for a big role, and the veteran TE's already in KC are mediocre at best.
 

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