My top-24 dynasty rookie rankings right now:
1. Kenneth Walker, I think his situation (and talent) is better than Hall's. Michael Carter isn't going away any time soon.
2. Breece Hall, might be better than Walker as a rookie (if Penny stays healthy, which is an Everest sized if) but I think his upside is capped a bit by Carter.
3. Jameson Williams, love his talent, and think the Lions offense is trending upward in a huge way. Goff has supported great WRs before. I really think without the ACL tear he would have been a top-5 overall pick. I think he has the highest ceiling of any of the recent Bama WRs.
4. Drake London, just hard to have him lower, even if Ridder is likely his QB. Why won't he have 130+ targets starting this season?
5. Garrett Wilson, is he the Jets #1 or is it Moore? I like Zach Wilson, but I don't see a Burrow-level jump happening, so how much production does the pie have to split up?
6. Chris Olave, could probably argue him higher, with questions about Kamara and Thomas. With that said, if both guys are there, Olave's ceiling is capped for now. Long term QB is also a mystery.
7. Skyy Moore, I think he's KC's best WR right now, but I also think MVS sucks, and they gave him 10 mill, so they may see that differently. Moore is the only WR with the talent to ever be close to Hill's level. I'd probably have him 2 spots higher if he were a 1st rounder.
8. George Pickens, I'm probably on an island here, but I think Diontae Johnson may not be long for Pittsburgh, and was maybe a bit of a Big Ben creation. Claypool has talent, but also has seemed to rub Tomlin the wrong way. Pickens has more upside than either in my opinion, and won't be playing catch up as he'll be learning in lockstep with Pickett, who I think starts week 1.
9. Dameon Pierce, not worried about Marlon Mack at all, and Burkhead is a 3rd down only guy. Pierce should get every chance to prove himself, and I think is a very good player, who was grossly underused in college, which means he has zero tread on his tires. I'd have him higher, but his 4th round draft capital suggests they coukld bring in someone else next year if he doesn't shine as a rookie.
10. Treylon Burks, I hate this landing spot. I think Burks is overrated, and I think Malik Willis could be the QB as soon as 2022, which likely changes the entire offense. I'm not confident he isn't just a more hyped Laviska Shenault.
11. Jalen Tolbert, really liked him as a prospect and this landing spot is good. He's going to a good offense, with a good QB, and lots of targets up for grabs with Cooper/Wilson both gone. Ironically, my pre-draft comp for him was Michael Gallup, so style wise, he'll fit in, and with Gallup coming off a late ACL tear, I think Tolbert starts week 1.
12. Jahan Dotson, thought he was grossly over drafted. I think he's a Doug Baldwin type, who runs good routes and has good hands, but is likely a guy who ends up just having a bunch of WR3 seasons. High floor pick.
13. James Cook, I'm not sure he's more than a 3rd down RB, but he's got draft capital on his side, and Singletary is in a contract year. I'd bet he goes higher than this.
14. Zamir White, Raiders declined Josh Jacobs option, and White seems possible/likely to be the starter in 2023 in a potential top-10 offense.
15. Rachaad White, in a great landing spot. I'm of the belief Fournette's workload has been more about lack of competition than Fournette suddenly being great, especially in the passing game. White could/should be the 3rd down RB soon enough, and has a lot of juice as a runner, he just needs some coaching. Another possible 2023 bet.
16. John Metchie, should slot in as a solid slot WR on a team playing from behind a lot. Not much competition beyond Cooks, who could be gone in 2023. I'm not a big Nico Collins fan, so Metchie could be looking at a big role in 2023.
17. Christian Watson, I just think he's MVS 2.0. Great size/speed, not good at anything else. He'll go long before this, and I'm be glad he does, because someone I like more will fall.
18. Kyle Phillips, one of my favorite sleepers, I could see him being a sneaky PPR machine, even if/when Willis takes over. Reminds me a ton of Renfrow.
19. Calvin Austin, like I said, I'm not really all-in on Diontae or Claypool, and there is certainly a path toward long term production for Austin, who is as explosive as anyone. Likely goes much later, but is a guy I'd want to stash.
20. Danny Gray, this is sort of a hedge against an eventual Deebo departure. Gray has elite speed, and quickness. His hands need work, but he could/should be a stash with a potential high payoff.
21. Alec Pierce, like Watson, he's just not a guy I like very much as a player, so his situation doesn't change much for me. I'm not sure how much room there is for production behind Taylor/Pittman, and neither are going anywhere anytime soon.
22. Romeo Doubs, I wouldn't totally be shocked if Carson Strong's #1 WR in college, ends up being better than Watson in GB. He's certainly better right now.
23. Malik Willis, could be argued higher, but its no lock Tannehill is gone after this year, Willis offers a Jalen Hurts like cheat code of fantasy production if/when he eventually takes over.
24. Pierre Strong, Damian Harris is in a contract year, and we know the Patriots are likely not going to sign him long term. Stevenson is probably the next guy up, but may be a guy who is just a RBBC guy, in which case Strong could have a lot of upside as home run hitting 1B on a run heavy team.
1. Kenneth Walker, I think his situation (and talent) is better than Hall's. Michael Carter isn't going away any time soon.
2. Breece Hall, might be better than Walker as a rookie (if Penny stays healthy, which is an Everest sized if) but I think his upside is capped a bit by Carter.
3. Jameson Williams, love his talent, and think the Lions offense is trending upward in a huge way. Goff has supported great WRs before. I really think without the ACL tear he would have been a top-5 overall pick. I think he has the highest ceiling of any of the recent Bama WRs.
4. Drake London, just hard to have him lower, even if Ridder is likely his QB. Why won't he have 130+ targets starting this season?
5. Garrett Wilson, is he the Jets #1 or is it Moore? I like Zach Wilson, but I don't see a Burrow-level jump happening, so how much production does the pie have to split up?
6. Chris Olave, could probably argue him higher, with questions about Kamara and Thomas. With that said, if both guys are there, Olave's ceiling is capped for now. Long term QB is also a mystery.
7. Skyy Moore, I think he's KC's best WR right now, but I also think MVS sucks, and they gave him 10 mill, so they may see that differently. Moore is the only WR with the talent to ever be close to Hill's level. I'd probably have him 2 spots higher if he were a 1st rounder.
8. George Pickens, I'm probably on an island here, but I think Diontae Johnson may not be long for Pittsburgh, and was maybe a bit of a Big Ben creation. Claypool has talent, but also has seemed to rub Tomlin the wrong way. Pickens has more upside than either in my opinion, and won't be playing catch up as he'll be learning in lockstep with Pickett, who I think starts week 1.
9. Dameon Pierce, not worried about Marlon Mack at all, and Burkhead is a 3rd down only guy. Pierce should get every chance to prove himself, and I think is a very good player, who was grossly underused in college, which means he has zero tread on his tires. I'd have him higher, but his 4th round draft capital suggests they coukld bring in someone else next year if he doesn't shine as a rookie.
10. Treylon Burks, I hate this landing spot. I think Burks is overrated, and I think Malik Willis could be the QB as soon as 2022, which likely changes the entire offense. I'm not confident he isn't just a more hyped Laviska Shenault.
11. Jalen Tolbert, really liked him as a prospect and this landing spot is good. He's going to a good offense, with a good QB, and lots of targets up for grabs with Cooper/Wilson both gone. Ironically, my pre-draft comp for him was Michael Gallup, so style wise, he'll fit in, and with Gallup coming off a late ACL tear, I think Tolbert starts week 1.
12. Jahan Dotson, thought he was grossly over drafted. I think he's a Doug Baldwin type, who runs good routes and has good hands, but is likely a guy who ends up just having a bunch of WR3 seasons. High floor pick.
13. James Cook, I'm not sure he's more than a 3rd down RB, but he's got draft capital on his side, and Singletary is in a contract year. I'd bet he goes higher than this.
14. Zamir White, Raiders declined Josh Jacobs option, and White seems possible/likely to be the starter in 2023 in a potential top-10 offense.
15. Rachaad White, in a great landing spot. I'm of the belief Fournette's workload has been more about lack of competition than Fournette suddenly being great, especially in the passing game. White could/should be the 3rd down RB soon enough, and has a lot of juice as a runner, he just needs some coaching. Another possible 2023 bet.
16. John Metchie, should slot in as a solid slot WR on a team playing from behind a lot. Not much competition beyond Cooks, who could be gone in 2023. I'm not a big Nico Collins fan, so Metchie could be looking at a big role in 2023.
17. Christian Watson, I just think he's MVS 2.0. Great size/speed, not good at anything else. He'll go long before this, and I'm be glad he does, because someone I like more will fall.
18. Kyle Phillips, one of my favorite sleepers, I could see him being a sneaky PPR machine, even if/when Willis takes over. Reminds me a ton of Renfrow.
19. Calvin Austin, like I said, I'm not really all-in on Diontae or Claypool, and there is certainly a path toward long term production for Austin, who is as explosive as anyone. Likely goes much later, but is a guy I'd want to stash.
20. Danny Gray, this is sort of a hedge against an eventual Deebo departure. Gray has elite speed, and quickness. His hands need work, but he could/should be a stash with a potential high payoff.
21. Alec Pierce, like Watson, he's just not a guy I like very much as a player, so his situation doesn't change much for me. I'm not sure how much room there is for production behind Taylor/Pittman, and neither are going anywhere anytime soon.
22. Romeo Doubs, I wouldn't totally be shocked if Carson Strong's #1 WR in college, ends up being better than Watson in GB. He's certainly better right now.
23. Malik Willis, could be argued higher, but its no lock Tannehill is gone after this year, Willis offers a Jalen Hurts like cheat code of fantasy production if/when he eventually takes over.
24. Pierre Strong, Damian Harris is in a contract year, and we know the Patriots are likely not going to sign him long term. Stevenson is probably the next guy up, but may be a guy who is just a RBBC guy, in which case Strong could have a lot of upside as home run hitting 1B on a run heavy team.
