Zow
Footballguy
Yep they were correct (I had money on chargers money line so I was there with you cheering for them). Just didn’t work out.
But those complaining probably fold pocket aces to a pre-flop raise after a bad beat as well.
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Post here when coaches do something you disagree with (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter GreenNGold
- Start date
But those complaining probably fold pocket aces to a pre-flop raise after a bad beat as well.
Zow
Footballguy
Right. I remember those barnwell rants and he was spot on.
It does seem to have improved.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Just tired of seeing coaches do this. It makes no sense. And tired of people thinking these guys are smart.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
This is exactly everything I feel about Campbell. He would be a great oc for an offensive minded hc that called their own plays.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Houston punted from the 49ers 41-yard line with 6:53 left and down by 10.
dhockster
Footballguy
Word in Houston is that there is at least a fair chance that the Texans will keep Culley as head coach for another year. I don't understand this when he has shown that he is in over his head many times this season.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Well, the only reason they hired him in the first place was because no one else wanted the job, so it's not too surprising they would keep him on.
dhockster
Footballguy
I read this and initially dismissed it, but found the following article which was written 3 days after the Culley hiring which gives your viewpoint some merit.
https://www.battleredblog.com/2021/2/2/22261929/five-theories-why-david-culley-was-hired
Even if they did hire him because no one else wanted the job, that doesn't mean that is still the case. The Texans will have a high first round pick and have a full slate of draft picks behind that pick. They also may have additional draft picks if they are able to move Watson before the draft. In addition, the Texans have gotten rid of a lot of their bad contracts, so cap wise they are in better shape. So the job is a lot more attractive now than it was heading into 2021.
Even if they aren't able to find the guy willing to come here who they want to coach, they would still be better off promoting from within. Lovie Smith, their current DC, is a former head coach who did well with very little to work with this year. I would be much more comfortable with Smith as head coach than Culley. Culley is not a capable head coach and I would not want a full rookie class to be learning under his leadership. Even if it is as a placeholder, bring in someone else who will at least not be detrimental to the current young roster.
grateful zed
Footballguy
how's burrow?
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I mean, I'm certainly not going to argue with you on the rationality of Houston's front office. These are the same folks who managed to chase away/alienate three of the four greatest players in franchise history in the past two years (the fact that Watson was later revealed to be a radioactive sleazeball doesn't absolve their handling of him in the years leading up to the allegations). Keeping Culley probably is a dumb move, and maybe they do have better options available this year than they did last winter.
Let's just say I won't be the least bit surprised if they keep him, even if it's only for the very dumb reason of not wanting to admit they made a mistake. Also, while I agree he's often seemed overmatched, the fact is that Houston has (slightly) overperformed expectations just enough to give a front office that may already be inclined to keep him a plausible rationale for doing so.
dhockster
Footballguy
I agree that they will probably keep him and it will not be surprising. What's interesting is he was hired as basically an interim head coach and they are going to keep him two years. I don't remember any other team having a two year interim coach.
As to overperforming expectations (and I know you only said slightly), I always look to Vegas as a barometer. the over/under for Texans wins this year was 4 so they are right at expections (assuming they lose to the Titans this week).
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Darrel Williams injured on a meaningless screen pass at the end of the first half
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Lots of people slamming Fangio for kicking a FG. Broncos were down 7 on 4th and 9 from the KC 13 with 4:41 to play. I was shocked to see the 4th down bot agreed with the decision. I guess the logic is that you’re going to need more than a TD to win, and your chances of converting a 4th and 9 are pretty slim.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Bots can't put things into context. If the opponent doesn't have a great offense, that may be the right call, but against the 2021-22 Chiefs, it's probably not.
DropKick
Footballguy
4th and 9 with almost 5 minutes, you take the FG. Defense needs to make a stop and you can win with a TD.
Earlier this season the Chargers were convinced they shouldn't kick FGs against the Chiefs and lost in OT.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Really? Why shocked? That thing is WAY more aggressive than 99.999% of NFL coaches. Agreed with Dan Campbell when he was going for 4th downs on his own 30 down 2 scores in the third quarter.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I thought about that, but I’m not sure the quality of the KC offense is a deciding factor. In a hypothetical situation where they go for it and get the TD, now Mahomes gets the ball back with a chance to engineer a game-winning drive. So one way or another, if the Denver D can’t get a stop, they’re going to lose the game.
I’m not saying they definitely should have kicked. I’m just saying, as someone who is generally in favor of being more aggressive, I don’t think this situation was a slam dunk in either direction
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/dduggan21/status/1480253414869245953?s=21
”The Giants just ran a QB sneak on third-and-9 from their own 4-yard line. I have no words.”
”The Giants just ran a QB sneak on third-and-9 from their own 4-yard line. I have no words.”
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Pip's Invitation said:
There is no way in hell that was the right call. Giving the ball back to Mahomes and the Chiefs was beyond stupid.
Add the fact in that you were also relying on a long drive from Drew Lock into the equation. (plug that longshot into the bots)
And that's all beside the fact that they weren't going to the playoffs. Get some balls. Or get a new job I guess.
The bot stuff is fun for some or certain scenarios but it's nowhere close to "accurate" or more importantly correct.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I think he should have gone for it because he knew he was about to get fired so might as well go down swinging.
But like I said, I don't think it's a no-brainer, mostly because people are overestimating the chances of scoring a TD in that scenario. Also, even if they did score the TD, they would still have given the ball back to Mahomes and Lock would still have needed to lead another scoring drive. So what it comes down to is whether you have better odds scoring a TD on that one play or on a separate drive. I guess what the bot is saying is that the latter is more likely.
Incidentally, Arizona faced a similar situation today: Down 7 with 6:41 to play, 4th and goal at the 12. Kingsbury kicked the FG (the bot agreed with that decision as well). I also wonder if, when scenarios like that present themselves in the final week of the season, coaches take into account a reluctance to play an OT game. Arizona in particular had a strong incentive to avoid OT; a tie would do them no good in terms of the division or their playoff seeding, and playing an extra 10 minutes could have tired them out with wildcard game coming in potentially six days.
East Coast Bias
Footballguy
Dumb
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
There’s a new leader in the clubhouse for the dumbest thing ever award.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
You can say that again. But twice in one game is really something.
Just watched his post-game, giving the excuse of "right defense" on that last TO. Man, the arrogance of calling it got trumped in the post-game.
Guy got what he deserved, big-time.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Staley’s decision to go for it on 4th and a full yard from his own 18 down 3 in the 3rd quarter is something not even Richie Kotite would do. Worst of all time
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
TO was the right call
they got a good look at the play call and the Raiders were not lined up in knee taking formation.
the way to win or tie would be to stop the Raiders on 3rd and force them to decide on a 55 yarder and potentially giving the ball back to Herbert at midfield with 30 seconds or punt it deep and put the Chargers in a spot where they have to take a knee.
The TO was absolutely the right decision.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Yeah, gave them a slim chance to get into the playoffs.
And a great chance at hittin the clubs before the leftovers.
Hot Diggity Dog
Footballguy
Agree with this. the rest of the game not so sure about his calls but at that point the Raiders are still running plays. Get your best run defense in there and stop them so they have to kick the 50 plus field goal. Your last chance to make the Raiders choose a tie. Bad execution doesn't make it the wrong decision.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
OK, I know you're joking, but here's something that's been bothering me since last night: All of the analytics models argued pretty strongly in favor of going for it, and yet everyone (me included) think it was dumb. So what do we think the analytical models are missing here?
It's not enough to say, "Well, the analytics can't account for every situation", because I'm guessing most of us would have trouble finding any situations where we would recommend going for it on 4th and 1 from our own 18.
You also can't just say, "MOMENTUM!" and then drop the mic. First of all, momentum is a myth (in terms of having any predictive capability), but also, the way the game actually played out would seem to rule out momentum being a significant factor. The Chargers D responded to the crushing disappointment of the failed conversion by ... forcing a three-and-out on the subsequent series. Meanwhile the offense staged a 15-point 4Q comeback. Even if momentum exists, it certainly wasn't what cost the Chargers the game.
To me, the most obvious critique of Staley's decision can be seen in what did happen: the defense did its job, held the Raiders to a quick three-and-out where they only gained four yards, and LV was still able to score three points on a chippie FG. In other words, the cost of not converting was an almost guaranteed 3 points for the opponent. So why wouldn't the models account for that?
With Belichick's infamous call vs. the Colts, the benefits to the Pats were far more apparent. They were leading late in the game, so if they converted they had a chance to run out the clock and keep the ball out of Peyton's hands. In last night's game, if the Chargers had converted, they would have had 1st and 10 from the 20. What are your expected points from a drive in that scenario, and how does that compare to the 3 points they were handing the Raiders?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hi, I'm late to the party. Have we yet beaten to death "go for it on 4th down inside your own 20"? That one may just end this topic, really. I can't imagine a dumber play-call in the future history of the NFL, or uh, any sport.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This pretty well puts a bow on this entire discussion. There's no way a case can be made for that call. It's just mindblowingly dumb.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
what may be missing the high probability of converting
so, just making up numbers, an 85% chance to increase your expected pt total by 1, vs a15% chance to increase your opponent’s expected pt total by 2.9 would seem to support it.
it still seems dumb to me, but the calculation probably excludes utility.
If you do the math, like analytics guys, you would never buy insurance for anything…..
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
This is an excellent post, and I was thinking the exact same thing last night. "This is obviously a dumb decision, but I like analytics, so maybe this should make me stop and rethink things a bit."
For me, part of it is that the coach has to face his players on the sideline and in the locker room after the game, and I think the overwhelming majority of players are going to (rightly IMO) feel that Staley set them up to fail. I would not appreciate being put out there on fourth down at my own 18 yard line knowing that if I convert nobody will remember it the next day but if I fail it's all that anybody's going to be talking about. And if I were a defender, I would be ticked at being asked to defend the end zone after a decision like that goes sideways. I consider myself a math guy, but the fact is that being a HC is in some ways like running any other organization that includes human beings. You have to factor in that your players are humans who respond endogenously to the decisions that you're making. They're not sims who mindlessly follow your orders.
And on a mathematical level "should you for it on fourth and one at your own 18 yard line early in the game" is a situation that hardly ever comes up. Whatever models people are using to calculate WPs are probably not drawing from a large sample size here. My guess is that there is some out-of-sample forecasting taking place that is warping the math. Admittedly this is kind of because I just refuse to accept that this was really a coin-flip decision from a WP standpoint.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I think the historical average for 4th and 1 conversions is 65%. Doing some quick back-of-the-envelope calculations, that means the break-even point for the drive would be 1.05 EPA. No idea what the average EPA is for drives that start at the 20, though since all the models favor going for it, I would assume it's higher than 1.05.
You just reminded me of the time my stats professor told us Bill Gates should never buy insurance, because he has no need to protect against downside risk.
Without looking it up I’d think the EP for a drive starting at the opponents 18 is much higher than 2.9.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Well, I was talking about the EP for the Chargers if they had converted the 4th down. But you're right, I was under-calculating the Raiders' EP on their drive as a point of comparison. They're almost guaranteed at least 3 points, but could obviously get much more.Cobbler1 said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The bolded is a great point. Team morale is unlikely to be factored in to such an analysis. The notion that a team could be disheartened by such a failure early on - and on both sides of the ball since the Defense is now put into an impossible position where through no fault of their own surrendering 3 points is a near inevitability, and 7 a possibility...IvanKaramazov said:
It's just such a head scratcher. I also cannot believe this was a coin flip decision.
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Tau837
Footballguy
I'm not sure where to find the data, but the Athletic beat writer, Daniel Popper, posted this today:
He also posted this, and I cannot confirm or deny it, but assume it is true:
As a Chargers fan, and an analytics fan, I appreciated Staley's aggressive approach this season. Especially in contrast to the ultra-conservative approach of previous HC Lynn. In real time last night, I disagreed with his choice to go for it in this situation we are discussing, but I can understand it. I certainly don't believe it cost the Chargers the game. Their defense took care of that.
Seems to me this comes down to do you trust your defense to stop a 2 or your offense to get a 2.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Generally, this is true. However, there was a penalty on the TD, which meant Georgia could have taken the half-the-distance penalty on the 2PC, which would seem to tip the balance in favor of going for it. (Instead they applied the penalty to the kickoff.)
Bigger mistake by Kirby Smart: yelling at his player to get down after the game-clinching INT. There was a minute left and Alabama had all three TOs. Scoring the TD was definitely the higher-percentage play there, so Smart was lucky that Ringo didn't listen to him.
Yes and yes. All true and I did think of the penalty impact last night but had forgotten by this morning. Smart should have been yelling DON’T FUMBLE BUT ADVANCE THE BALL AS FAR AS YOU CAN!
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I still remember that NFC Championship Game where Morgan Burnett intercepted Russell Wilson with 5 minutes left in the game. Burnett immediately went down even though he could have gotten a decent return and possibly even scored. Ended up being a huge mistake.
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