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How did so many people time out of this?
I was the 1.01, had a ton of injuries like Manning / AJ / DMC / Best. I was still #6 in points but play in a division that has 3 of the 5 best teams and lost all 6 games. I got the other 3 1st rounders from last off-season. The thing is that this is a contract league and Rookie RB Salary is twice as much as any other position, making Luck and RGIII Gold when they develop... their going to sit in my Taxi for 2 yrs along with Tannehill. But I do regret passing on Jenkins, he was #2 on my pre-draft at 3.01 and just missed him at 3.09. QBs score the highest in this league and cost alot in the auction, my idea was to get those 2 future Studs that way I won't have to worry about drafting a QB in the auction for the next 4 - 6 yrs. I also have Locker in my Taxi
. I just saw Tannehill as great value and will allow me to be able to trade either Luck or RGIII when the time is right if I choose too. Also, I had 1.06 which was going to be Martin or Wilson but traded to 1.13 and a future 1st plus a 3rd. If it wasn't for the rookie salary scale I would of taken both RBs... I think the rookie salary scale is the reason its so easy to get 1st rounders in this league.The draft is complete
Someone fused David Wilson and Doug Martin into the ultimate RB at pick 1.02?
I assume 1.03 should actually be AG3 and 1.04 is most likely to be Justin Floyd.
Godamnit. Every time I write that guy's name I flub it up...
Password.
Kendall Wright is the chalk pick, but after that ADP really goes out the door - it's a take the guy(s) you want. Good cases can be made for all of Hillman, Pead, James, Miller, Quick, Randle, Jenkins, Fleener, Hill, Tannehill, and Jeffrey. Thing is, good chance none of them fall to the end of the 2nd. Looking like Jenkins and Tannehill might, obviously depends on the league, but no guarantee. If you want them that bad, pick them. So much value in the mid-late 2nd and again in the mid-late 3rd - flide back another few picks in IDP leagues.
Yeah, I can see what you're saying. In reality, I have the guys in that range rated pretty similarly to one another, but the mental block of "late first round pick" from before the draft class shook out has me expecting a bigger name there. Some more:
FAs and Rookie draft. Rosters expand to 30 with cut to 25 in late August. Standard yardage, 6 pts/TD (including pass). Bonus for distance TDs and 100/300 yardage milestonse. My picks in bold.1.01 Richardson, Trent CLE RB
What scoring system do you use for IDP? Only one IDP off the board, a safety, at the 48th pick of a rookie draft? Seems like they are worth very little when people like Osweiler go before Kuechly, David, etc.
Great value with all your picks. Childs at 2.01 and Jenkins at 3.10 have me scratching my head.
2.5 Stephen Hill2.6 AJ Jenkins
Jenkins gets no respect. In a PPR league there's no excuse for him slipping out of the 2nd.
Yeah, I don't personally have any love for Jenkins (obviously, I selected Broyles ahead of him), but I was still astonished that he was there at the tail end of round 3.
Thank you for posting this. You are absolutely right. I have the 2nd and 11th pick of my IPD Dynasty Draft, then the 11th pick in each subsequent round. I have been struggling between Luck, RGIII, and Blackman. After I read this post I went back to my league to see who were the top scorers. Last year the top 6 were QBs, 2010 the top 4, and in 2009 six of the top 7 were QBs. Obviously my pick is now between RGIII and Luck. Still a tough choice but not as tough as it was 5 minutes ago. Thanks.
If he had been picked in the late second, everyone would be talking about the great value the niners would have gotten and he would be looked at as a potential sleeper. Getting any skill player drafted in the actual NFL draft in the first round in a dynasty rookie 3rd is an utter gift from league mates.
The psychology of how people draft is very interesting. People would rather 'discover' a later pick - or even an UDFA like Polk in this case - then take a 1st round talent who may have been drafted too high. I had Jenkins ranked as the #8 WR prior to the draft and the 49ers taking him in the first only validated my impression of him.
I got him at 2.10 and was delighted. He wasn't a guy I'd been targeting but worth a shot. Especially if you subscribe to EBFs draft position is a key variable.If anything it buys Jenkins a few more chances and shows the staff believes in him.
I wish you both the best and you possibly got a steal - but when you take a 1st round talent who may have been drafted too high, you sometimes run the risk of getting a Ted Ginn, Jr. CSTU already had Jenkins as a Top 8 WR, so it verified his ranking, but the fact is that many analysts did find this selection a reach. I think it is dangerous to put too much stock in where a club drafts any player, EBF's draft position is a key variable is statistically valid, but he conveniently disregards it if it involves a player that prior to the draft he didn't care for (Jake Locker comes to mind from last year). And as Bloom noted in another thread over a year ago, the people who make these draft picks for a living have a horrible track record:
I saw something a few days ago where someone ran the numbers of WRs drafted bewteen 4th and 7th round and even with extreme hits like Colston, etc. a Wr drafted there was just as likely to never catch as pass in the NFL as to become even a mediocore player. sorry forgot where I saw it and just spent 15 minites trying to find the link.
I fundamentally disagree with the statement that the pros are terrible at drafting. Are they perfect? Absolutely not. Just because the top five picks at a specific position are not the best five at that position in a draft class doesn't mean that the professionals are "terrible." The draft is, at its core, an odds game, whether it's fantasy or real. And the returns are what you'd expect. Looking specifically at WR, where the returns are very easy to gauge (and apropo to this dialogue), of the drafted players, the highest percentage of those with some measure of success are found in the first round. Here's a quick rundown of a brief analysis I performed.
There have been some pretty good 4th rounders, especially at RB. In recent years...Rudi Johnson, Darren Sproles, Marion Barber, Brandon Jacobs. IIRC 4th rounders have roughly a 10% success rate, which is well below the earlier rounds, but well above the lower rounds. The 4th round is about the cutoff point for quality though. If you wiped all 5th-7th round NFL draft picks off your rookie board, you would very rarely miss out on anyone worthwhile.
Fine, I agree with Bloom, you don't.
RB is almost an automatic one round bump IMO. Scarcity of position plays into that a bit, but the NFL is flooded with good RBs, devaluing their draft position quite a bit. Doing this within a position could be useful, but I don't think it is a linear correlation between positions.
Meast is freggin hilarious. His comments next to his picks are pretty awesome.
