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Potential Draft Day Dynasty Value Landmines And Boosts (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
Great read. We as dynasty owners are naive to the fact that there's change in the NFL every off-season. Many of us think we're "all-set" with a guy like Chester Taylor, but come NFL draft day, those opinions change mighty fast.
Like you say, teams don't always take players based on need.
Reggie Bush, Lawrence Maroney, Joseph Addai, DeAngelo Williams and LenDale White broke many Deuce McAllister, Corey Dillon, Dominic Rhodes, DeShaun Foster and Chris Brown owner's hearts last April. I suspect Peterson, Lynch and maybe Irons will be doing the exact same thing again this year.
Actually I know it will; always does.
Like you say, teams don't always take players based on need.
Reggie Bush, Lawrence Maroney, Joseph Addai, DeAngelo Williams and LenDale White broke many Deuce McAllister, Corey Dillon, Dominic Rhodes, DeShaun Foster and Chris Brown owner's hearts last April. I suspect Peterson, Lynch and maybe Irons will be doing the exact same thing again this year.
Actually I know it will; always does.
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
IDPs Next
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
http://nfldraftguys.com/features/2007_NFL_...y_Landmines.phpWhinsenhunt has actually said this? I normally hate when people do this but....
Here's the original story that others are quotingEli Wahlstrom of Cardinals Report is not Adam Schefter, but i've seen others cite him for this. So I felt it was worth noting in the article.Whinsenhunt has actually said this? I normally hate when people do this but....
Thank you.Here's the original story that others are quotingEli Wahlstrom of Cardinals Report is not Adam Schefter, but i've seen others cite him for this. So I felt it was worth noting in the article.Whinsenhunt has actually said this? I normally hate when people do this but....
WampusCat43
Footballguy
Good read. Just a heads-up: you've got McCown on there twice.
thanks... sometimes the right hand doesnt know what the left hand is doing....
I know that I missed some guys - it's somewhat arbitrary to a line anywhere, because a much greater number of players are in peril than we realize...
Anyone y'all think should be added?
Anyone y'all think should be added?
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
On the overarching points regarding TEs, you think Ben Patrick at #3 is in the "the TE class is very weak" category?
He could go in the 3rd round.
He could go in the 3rd round.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Players I'd consider adding:
QB - Jon Kitna, for many of the reasons surrounding DET and McCown
RB - Ronnie Brown
If Williams isn't reinstated, just who is next in line? Similar things can also be said about Caddy.
WR - Drew Carter (CAR) ; Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams (JAX), any ATL WR - all these are slated to take WRs this draft, especially Day 1.
TE - Desmond Clark ; Kris Mangum ; all OAK TEs ; Chris Baker
K - Martin Gramatica
QB - Jon Kitna, for many of the reasons surrounding DET and McCown
RB - Ronnie Brown
If Williams isn't reinstated, just who is next in line? Similar things can also be said about Caddy.WR - Drew Carter (CAR) ; Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams (JAX), any ATL WR - all these are slated to take WRs this draft, especially Day 1.
TE - Desmond Clark ; Kris Mangum ; all OAK TEs ; Chris Baker
K - Martin Gramatica
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
We'll be discussing the IDP rookies in the IDP Forum as well. Linebackers are already posted and I'm working on a post for the linemen now. In general, though, unless you're talking about an elite defensive talent, every IDP would belong on a list detailing players whose value depends on draft position and opportunity. The ramifications for the players ahead of them on the draft chart follow. It's more rare for an established IDP player to lose value IMO as a result of the draft. Nick Barnett would've been the poster child for that possibility last year, but also impossible to predict. It's much more likely to happen through FA, coaching, or scheme change.I'm also putting together what will become a yearly look at the primo spots for a rookie to be drafted. Should be ready next week.IDPs Next
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I have Patrick as the #1 candidate to be the "TE that the Eagles draft to replace LJ Smith"
patrickmcgroin
Footballguy
good article.
He just missed the cut. I think what we're looking at for him is getting a better idea of whetherhe'll be the starter for a half a year, a year, or two more years. My guess is two more years.
Miami taking an RB could also signal that they are going to trade Ricky. I expect Ricky to get rubber stamp reinstated.RB - Ronnie Brown
Certainly, at least 10 WRs are going on the first day and they will affect a lot of situations, just not immediately (at least not all of them). Other teams that people are seeing taking a first WR include SF, PHI, DAL, HOU, TEN, BUF, MIN, SD, and GB (among others)
I almost listed Clark and Baker, but I dont think any of their dynasty value is based on anything more than this year, and unless their teams take Miller or Olsen, their situation for this year will not be greatly changed. A pick of Olsen or Miller still might not greatly change the outlook or Clark or Baker. Mangum, well if he's an important player on your dynasty team, you should feel
unless you start something like 3 TEs. on OAK TEs - watch out for John Madsen.
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There could be a LOT more WRs to add. I don't know all of them, but I would think guys like:Mike FurreyBrandon MarshallVincent JacksonTroy WilliamsonTerry GlennDevery HendersonJerrico CotcheryBears WRsReggie Williams, Matt Jones
Im glad you addressed this. The preliminary list for the article included a lot of the guys you mentioned, but I didn't know where to draw the line. As I alluded to above, at least 10 teams should have a first day WR pick, and the number could well end up closer to 12-14.My thoughts on the guys you listed:Mike Furrey - Detroit def. wants him in the slot, but that won't happen because of who they pick this year (unless its Calvin) - A lot of us already diminished his value on that point, and bumped it back up a bit when they did not sign Curtis. I wont be changing his ranking much whether they take a WR in the 2nd or not all.Brandon Marshall - Domenik Hixon plays in here, and Denver might be looking for a 3rd WR, so I wouldn't read too much into a first day pick affecting their view of Marshall.Vincent Jackson - He just missed the cut. A lot of people are projecting him as the #1 WR in SD, but #30 is a sweet spot to get a guy like Dwayne Jarrett or any other non-Calvin WR that falls, so he is definitely a guy who has something at stake on draft day.Troy Williamson - I think everyone has written him off already, so he only has something to gain. The hard part about interpreting the Vikes feeling about Troy through how they address WR in the draft is that they are weak at WR all the way the down the line. So even if they pick 2 WRs on the first day, that could be about who they have on the depth chart after Williamson more than Williamson himself.Terry Glenn - Glenn and Owens both are precarious for the long term future in Dallas, but I don't expect a pick that would endanger their value this year, and that's by far the biggest part of their dynasty value.Devery Henderson - We know the Saints are not opposed to starting rooks, and Henderson could be in thecrosshairs. Another guy that just missed the cut.Jerricho Cotchery - I see Cotchery safe at the #2 WR spot. I will however, read a first WR pick as indicating how the Jets feel about Brad Smith's future at WR.Bears WRs - This is a tough nut to crack because Rashied Davis came along well last year, and I still believe in Bradley. I just don't see the Bears making a big splash with a first day WR, so I didnt address this corps.Reggie Williams, Matt Jones - Jacksonville could use a little waterbug type, and there seems to be at least an outside shot that they will take a WR in the first, but it's a longshot imo.
NoFBinLA
Moderator
I dunno about the bolded duo -- I think those who held onto Duece got more than enough value despite the Reggie drafting. And given the injury he was coming back from and the Saints draft position, you had to at least think they might be in position to need/want to replace him at some point.Who knew he was gonna play so well? You already had to be prepared for the worst with McAllister given his injury, well before Bush came on the scene.
IMO, at least.
I was looking at the other side. If they don't take 2 WRs, then it's a big boost to his value.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Fixed
Lets just hope Im not on the air when Booker's name is called. I might ululate with joy.Fixed
Rovers
Footballguy
I'll chime in on Cotchery.... as I see it. First, he is a Mangini favorite. He is however, an awful lot like Coles, not a real deep threat but fearless over the middle. Coles has had a few concussions, some other nagging injury issues and still shows some signs of being a malcontent in Mangini's camps. Smith's role is likely as WR #3, and #3 QB, as well as a sort of slash Jr. guy. If the Jets go WR, I am guessing it will be to groom him as Cole's eventual replacement, and to add a deep threat which they don't have now.
So, if the Jets go WR early, I think it's Coles' dynasty value that will be more affected, rather than Cotchery's.
So, if the Jets go WR early, I think it's Coles' dynasty value that will be more affected, rather than Cotchery's.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
One other little detail concerning Mangum that might affect his fantasy value -- he announced his retirement in February.Mangum, well if he's an important player on your dynasty team, you should feelunless you start something like 3 TEs.
http://panthers.aolsportsblog.com/2007/02/...his-retirement/
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Well, at least he'll have some good match ups most weeks. Those guys in wheelchairs at the retirement home don't have a lot of hops.One other little detail concerning Mangum that might affect his fantasy value -- he announced his retirement in February.Mangum, well if he's an important player on your dynasty team, you should feelunless you start something like 3 TEs.
http://panthers.aolsportsblog.com/2007/02/...his-retirement/
I guess I should wear theCouch Potato said:One other little detail concerning Mangum that might affect his fantasy value -- he announced his retirement in February.Sigmund Bloom said:Mangum, well if he's an important player on your dynasty team, you should feelunless you start something like 3 TEs.
http://panthers.aolsportsblog.com/2007/02/...his-retirement/
for not remembering that.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Nah, that was an easy one to forget. A minor player, end of February, and you've been pretty involved with far more important matters. I just got a chuckle out of both you and Pasquino missing it since you guys are on top of most everything most all the time.I guess I should wear theCouch Potato said:One other little detail concerning Mangum that might affect his fantasy value -- he announced his retirement in February.Sigmund Bloom said:Mangum, well if he's an important player on your dynasty team, you should feelfor not remembering that.
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RenegadeGM
Footballguy
I'd add Arnaz Battle to the list.
Possibly David Garrard if he is involved in a draft day trade.
Possibly David Garrard if he is involved in a draft day trade.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I'm not sure how that got through the language filter, but I'll be ducking for cover behind Faletti if this happens.Sigmund Bloom said:Lets just hope Im not on the air when Booker's name is called. I might ululate with joy.ConstruxBoy said:FixedSigmund Bloom said:
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I guess I should wear theCouch Potato said:One other little detail concerning Mangum that might affect his fantasy value -- he announced his retirement in February.Sigmund Bloom said:Mangum, well if he's an important player on your dynasty team, you should feelhttp://panthers.aolsportsblog.com/2007/02/...his-retirement/
Where's that Jeff King bandwagon?
RenegadeGM
Footballguy
and Greg Jennings.
ruelvis
Footballguy
direct quote from articleMoss to Green Bay would set off a domino effect of value changes to Donald Driver (down), Greg Jennings (down),
OldMilwaukee
IBL Representative
Very nice article Bloom....thanks!
Tick
Footballguy
I loved this last year - it highlighted Houston LBs.
