PPR Dynasty - Bowe or Holmes (1 Viewer)

[JPeso]

Share reasons if you have time.

Bowe

2007 - 70-995-5-14.2 (missed 1 game) - 4 games in single digits

Holmes

2006 - 49-824-2-16.8 (missed 1 game) - 11 games in single digits

2007 - 52-942-8-18.1 (missed 3 games) - 5 games in single digits

Arguments:

1. QB situation - Roethlisberger vs. Croyle is a no contest.

2. Viable 2nd/3rd options - More targets for Bowe, but more double coverage.

3. Strength of defense - Chiefs cannot get off the field for the offense, but will most likely be passing from behind.

 

[pollardsvision]

in cases of similar talent, which i'd say this, i'll take the guy with a better, more stable QB situation for the forseeable future.

 

[Buckna]

Santonio has now turned in 2 solid seasons, Bowe only has 1. In terms of risk, I'd much rather have Santonio.

I'm not saying it's going to happen to Bowe, but there have been plenty of one-hit wonder WR's.

 

[valhallan]

They're both good options, but I think Bowe has the better chance to be a perennial top-10 guy. He's big, fast, and fights for the ball. Holmes reminds me more of a Galloway-type that produces when he's on the field, but his reliance on speed will cause lingering injuries.

 

[JPeso]

They're both good options, but I think Bowe has the better chance to be a perennial top-10 guy. He's big, fast, and fights for the ball. Holmes reminds me more of a Galloway-type that produces when he's on the field, but his reliance on speed will cause lingering injuries.

I tend to agree that Bowe seems to have the higher ceiling and the lower floor.

 

[Buckna]

Chase Stuart had a very good post in the spotlight thread:

As I posted here, it's extremely rare for the top rookie WR to end up being the top WR in his draft class. In the last 25 years, only Moss has done it, with Boldin and Colston being good bets to match him. Since 1992, the top rookie WR ranked 5th or 6th in his class an incredible nine times. So it seems a bit more likely that Bowe finishes outside the top three than first, when it's all said and done, if history is our guide.

As for Bowe's 2008 fantasy prospects, for fourteen straight years the top rookie fantasy WR decline the next year; however, the past two seasons, the top rookie WR in the preceding year improved that season (Edwards and Colston). Reasonable persons can disagree about this one, but I think I'm going to be a bit hesitant about Bowe's prospects going forward.

Compiling great numbers as a rookie WR is a lot easier than some think. But there are usually 10 or 15 WRs with a chance to have solid years, and one or two of them usually will. But that doesn't make them uber talented or amazing receivers. There's a good bit of luck involved there, I think.

That Colston was one of the exceptions is interesting considering he missed 3 games his rookie year. If he had been healthy that whole season he likely would have put up better total numbers than he did in '07.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I think Bowe is the better talent and has a lot more upside than Holmes. I just think Bowe can be an elite top 10 WR and I just don't see the same for Holmes.

 

[valhallan]

The history is interesting, but many of those top rookie receivers were the small, speedy types. Let's look at the last several:

Marques Colston - Big, playmaker

Braylon Edwards - Big, playmaker

Michael Clayton - Total enigma

Anquan Boldin - Big, playmaker

Donte Stallworth - Small, speedy

Chris Chambers - Small but heavier, speedy

Peter Warrick - Small, speedy

Kevin Johnson - Small, kinda speedy

Randy Moss - Tall, speedy, playmaker

Rae Carruth - Small, speedy

Terry Glenn - Small, speedy

Joey Galloway - Small, speedy

The three recent big, playmaker types (which Bowe certainly is) have thus far continued their success as rookies. The rest are mostly small, speedy types who all had injury problems.

I'm inclined to give more creedence to Bowe's playing style and what I've seen him do on the field than a list of receivers whose only real correlation to Bowe is that they scored more than other rookie receivers.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I own both guys (different leagues), so obviously I'd be happy to have either.

Like others have said, Bowe comes with significantly more variance than Holmes. Holmes is a good WR2, but I don't see a lot of WR1 potential there, especially in PPR. On the other hand, its hard for me to envision Holmes putting up anything worse than WR3 numbers, barring injury of course. With Holmes, you know you're getting a legitimate every-week starter. With Bowe, you could easily have a solid WR1 if he takes a step up the learning curve in his second season, or you might have another Quincy Morgan. If I was going to draft Bowe as a starter, I would want some quality vets around him just in case.

One point that I think is worth noting for dynasty purposes is that the Chiefs' woeful quarterbacking is a point in Bowe's favor, not a point against him. Last year, Bowe scored about the same number of fantasy points as Holmes, despite the fact that Holmes had Roethlisberger throwing to him while Bowe was saddled with Croyle. Well, the situation for Holmes is probably about as good as its going to get, but the situation facing Bowe can only get better. If your roster is such that you can afford to look a year or two out, that makes Bowe look a little better.

So I guess what I'm trying to say is that I see these guys as being in the same general tier. I'd rather have Bowe if my other WRs were stable, and I'd rather have Bowe if I was in a position to be patient. I'd rather have Holmes if my othere WRs were question marks or if I was in "win now" mode.

 

[Dancing Bear]

I would take Holmes because I believe his OPPORTUNITY is far superior to Bowes and that will equate to better overall performance in the long run.

 

[Banger]

I own both guys (different leagues), so obviously I'd be happy to have either. Like others have said, Bowe comes with significantly more variance than Holmes. Holmes is a good WR2, but I don't see a lot of WR1 potential there, especially in PPR. On the other hand, its hard for me to envision Holmes putting up anything worse than WR3 numbers, barring injury of course. With Holmes, you know you're getting a legitimate every-week starter. With Bowe, you could easily have a solid WR1 if he takes a step up the learning curve in his second season, or you might have another Quincy Morgan. If I was going to draft Bowe as a starter, I would want some quality vets around him just in case. One point that I think is worth noting for dynasty purposes is that the Chiefs' woeful quarterbacking is a point in Bowe's favor, not a point against him. Last year, Bowe scored about the same number of fantasy points as Holmes, despite the fact that Holmes had Roethlisberger throwing to him while Bowe was saddled with Croyle. Well, the situation for Holmes is probably about as good as its going to get, but the situation facing Bowe can only get better. If your roster is such that you can afford to look a year or two out, that makes Bowe look a little better. So I guess what I'm trying to say is that I see these guys as being in the same general tier. I'd rather have Bowe if my other WRs were stable, and I'd rather have Bowe if I was in a position to be patient. I'd rather have Holmes if my othere WRs were question marks or if I was in "win now" mode.

I wish there was an Excellent post emoticon because this deserves it.

 

[thecardiackid]

Voted Holmes for the obvious QB stability/production, Hines likely phasing out in the next year or so, and also the collective DBs in the AFCW are >>> compared to the AFCN.

Bowe has a run oriented coach, no other proven outside threat to take off pressure (= more rolling double coverage) and Gonzo / LJ getting theirs.

I agree Bowe is a superior *talent* based on what I saw last year, and has mad ball skills along w/ his size. However the QB (and likely coaching) situation in KC will be in question for at least the next 2 years. And it's tough to project (dynasty wise) much past 2/3 years.

 

[Chairshot]

Good reasons to take either player but I'd take Bowe in a PPR league. I think he will definitely have more catches every year and that they will have similar yardage totals. TDs are almost impossible to predict year to year, in my eyes.

I think we know what Holmes is - a real nice deep threat. I think Bowe has the talent and size to be a legit WR1. I don't think Holmes does.

Even though it's only one season, Bowe had almost 120 targets. Holmes has had 2 years of about 85. In PPR, that leads me to believe that Bowe will have the more catches and will have more opportunities to score. If one season is any indication, Bowe seems like he has the potential to be a 85-100 catch type guy one day. I don't think Holmes has the same potential. And if Bowe does end up as a 85 catch guy (and assuming they are still similar in yardage), then Holmes would have to score 5-6 more TDs then Bowe to make up the difference in scoring (since Holmes is pretty much a 50 catch type of player).

To me, Holmes seems like the slightly safer pick but Bowe seems like a solid bet to offer a higher reward.

I don't think you can go wrong either way, though. Good spot to be in.

 

[JPeso]

I think we know what Holmes is - a real nice deep threat. I think Bowe has the talent and size to be a legit WR1. I don't think Holmes does.

What's to say he doesn't 'evolve' like Steve Smith?Year 2 for Smith - 54-872-3-16.1Year 3 for Smith - 88-1110-7-12.6

 

[Chairshot]

I think we know what Holmes is - a real nice deep threat. I think Bowe has the talent and size to be a legit WR1. I don't think Holmes does.

What's to say he doesn't 'evolve' like Steve Smith?Year 2 for Smith - 54-872-3-16.1Year 3 for Smith - 88-1110-7-12.6

He could. But for that to happen, Pittsburgh would probably have to throw another 50 targets at Holmes then they have in each of the last 2 years, like Carolina did with Smith his break out year. So, I guess it would depend on if you think Pittsburgh will do that or not. Personally, I don't know that I see that happening anytime soon.

 

[JPeso]

I think we know what Holmes is - a real nice deep threat. I think Bowe has the talent and size to be a legit WR1. I don't think Holmes does.

What's to say he doesn't 'evolve' like Steve Smith?Year 2 for Smith - 54-872-3-16.1Year 3 for Smith - 88-1110-7-12.6

He could. But for that to happen, Pittsburgh would probably have to throw another 50 targets at Holmes then they have in each of the last 2 years, like Carolina did with Smith his break out year. So, I guess it would depend on if you think Pittsburgh will do that or not. Personally, I don't know that I see that happening anytime soon.

Holmes missed 3 entire games, and time in 3 others. 50 more targets isn't unlikely.

 

[Banger]

One thing that I haven't read yet that I'd be interested in is the perceived impact of L. Sweed over the next few years and his effect on Holmes. I don't know much about him or his talent but I know a lot guys on here do.

 

[JPeso]

One thing that I haven't read yet that I'd be interested in is the perceived impact of L. Sweed over the next few years and his effect on Holmes. I don't know much about him or his talent but I know a lot guys on here do.

Sweed effects Hines more than Holmes long-term, in my opinion. Sweed is still quite raw, Hines will be around to show him the ropes and hopefully help mold him in to a viable possession WR down the road.

 

[moderated]

Bowe, he'll get a lot more targets.

Holmes is a classic #2 guy who isn't ever going to become a possession receiver. He'll produce, but more with 70ish catches with a high YPC and not many TD's since he isn't a very good red-zone threat.

Bowe pretty much does everything better except running the bomb type routes.

 

[JPeso]

Bowe, he'll get a lot more targets.

Holmes is a classic #2 guy who isn't ever going to become a possession receiver. He'll produce, but more with 70ish catches with a high YPC and not many TD's since he isn't a very good red-zone threat.

Bowe pretty much does everything better except running the bomb type routes.

I agree, Holmes isn't a red zone threat, but that didn't keep him out of the endzone. He still had 8 TDs. He can get behind defenses and Roeth has a big arm.

 

[moose162]

Santonio Holmes' value degenerates too much when its a PPR

 

[Chairshot]

I think we know what Holmes is - a real nice deep threat. I think Bowe has the talent and size to be a legit WR1. I don't think Holmes does.

What's to say he doesn't 'evolve' like Steve Smith?Year 2 for Smith - 54-872-3-16.1Year 3 for Smith - 88-1110-7-12.6

He could. But for that to happen, Pittsburgh would probably have to throw another 50 targets at Holmes then they have in each of the last 2 years, like Carolina did with Smith his break out year. So, I guess it would depend on if you think Pittsburgh will do that or not. Personally, I don't know that I see that happening anytime soon.

Holmes missed 3 entire games, and time in 3 others. 50 more targets isn't unlikely.

Holmes averaged 6.5 targets over the 13 games he played last year (and obviously much less his rookie year when he averaged 5.4). Over 16 games that's about 104 targets. Still missing a good 30 targets or so, which I don't think get made up in the parts of the games he missed.Pittsburgh hasn't had a WR hit the 140-150 target mark (which is where Steve Smith lives these days) since 2003. Meaning they haven't done it since Roethlisberger or the current coaching staff how shown up.The opportunity part of the equation to me is the biggest part. Opportunities for WRs come in the form of targets. I think it's likely that Bowe will receive more targets then Holmes will. Everything from team history to number of team weapons to the fact that KC will be playing from behind a lot more then Pittsburgh tells me that.I'm not saying it can't happen. Anything can happen. But it doesn't seem likely to me.

 

[JPeso]

Santonio Holmes' value degenerates too much when its a PPR

Meaning that he can't become a viable PPR threat, or just that he hasn't thus far? Sure, he hasn't been a top PPR option, but this makes it sounds like he won't get there.

 

[Chairshot]

Santonio Holmes' value degenerates too much when its a PPR

Meaning that he can't become a viable PPR threat, or just that he hasn't thus far? Sure, he hasn't been a top PPR option, but this makes it sounds like he won't get there.

What is your reasoning for thinking he will get there?

 

[moderated]

Bowe, he'll get a lot more targets.

Holmes is a classic #2 guy who isn't ever going to become a possession receiver. He'll produce, but more with 70ish catches with a high YPC and not many TD's since he isn't a very good red-zone threat.

Bowe pretty much does everything better except running the bomb type routes.

I agree, Holmes isn't a red zone threat, but that didn't keep him out of the endzone. He still had 8 TDs. He can get behind defenses and Roeth has a big arm.

i hear what your saying, but long TD's are a lot less consistent year to year and when he isn't getting the looks inside the red-zone it limits his chances to put up the 10+ TD seasons.Bowe will become a great red zone weapon plus he's great over the middle.

 

[valhallan]

I own both guys (different leagues), so obviously I'd be happy to have either.

Like others have said, Bowe comes with significantly more variance than Holmes. Holmes is a good WR2, but I don't see a lot of WR1 potential there, especially in PPR. On the other hand, its hard for me to envision Holmes putting up anything worse than WR3 numbers, barring injury of course. With Holmes, you know you're getting a legitimate every-week starter. With Bowe, you could easily have a solid WR1 if he takes a step up the learning curve in his second season, or you might have another Quincy Morgan. If I was going to draft Bowe as a starter, I would want some quality vets around him just in case.

One point that I think is worth noting for dynasty purposes is that the Chiefs' woeful quarterbacking is a point in Bowe's favor, not a point against him. Last year, Bowe scored about the same number of fantasy points as Holmes, despite the fact that Holmes had Roethlisberger throwing to him while Bowe was saddled with Croyle. Well, the situation for Holmes is probably about as good as its going to get, but the situation facing Bowe can only get better. If your roster is such that you can afford to look a year or two out, that makes Bowe look a little better.

So I guess what I'm trying to say is that I see these guys as being in the same general tier. I'd rather have Bowe if my other WRs were stable, and I'd rather have Bowe if I was in a position to be patient. I'd rather have Holmes if my othere WRs were question marks or if I was in "win now" mode.

I agree with you for the most part, but the bolded is a little off. Pittsburgh ranked 31st in pass attempts and there was a #1 WR ahead of Holmes in targets. Clearly, an increase in pass attempts and a decline in Ward's presence could make for a better situation.That said, I agree that he doesn't look like a #1. And there's the rub, because PPR highly favors consistent #1 types over the random-big-game types.

As an aside to the thread in general, I don't think it's particularly wise to put a good amount of emphasis on situation over talent in dynasty. Every year, supporting casts get injured, coaches change, free agents are acquired, but the talent remains. Bowe could have a top quarterback tomorrow (Favre?) and Roethlisberger could do something stupid again. Look at Braylon Edwards.. his situation wasn't ideal until BAM, Derek Anderson starts throwing rockets.

 

[RBM]

I am probably going to have to decide between these two.

Steeler fans or people who watched alot of Holmes last year - Am I way off in thinking that he can turn into a Marvin Harrison/Tory Holt type receiver. Similar in size and speed, good hands, runs good routes, ability to burn you at anytime, but also reliable on shorter patterns?

Do any Chief fans have something good to say about Croyle? Dont think Ive ever seen it.

 

[JPeso]

Santonio Holmes' value degenerates too much when its a PPR

Meaning that he can't become a viable PPR threat, or just that he hasn't thus far? Sure, he hasn't been a top PPR option, but this makes it sounds like he won't get there.

What is your reasoning for thinking he will get there?

I was asking you thought he didn't, more than saying I think Holmes will get there. I think it is very possible that this year was Holmes' floor moving forward. I don't think I can say the same thing for Bowe. Can both improve? Sure they can. Bowe just has much more to lose.

 

[munchkin]

Holmes has to show he WANTS IT like Steve Smith does. Is he more Santana Moss than Steve Smith; only time will tell.

From the comments I have heard about Bowe he strikes me as a player who will maximize his potential in all situations. He was the man on a balanced LSU team and worked hard to shine on a Chiefs struggling Chiefs offense last year. His rookie year could be his floor if he can stay healthy where S Holmes could be a very solid 70-80 reception guy year in and year out.

I like Bowe long term and I am not happy I didn't take him in the 1st round of my rookie/FA draft last year.

 

[greenf7cat]

I am probably going to have to decide between these two.

Steeler fans or people who watched alot of Holmes last year - Am I way off in thinking that he can turn into a Marvin Harrison/Tory Holt type receiver. Similar in size and speed, good hands, runs good routes, ability to burn you at anytime, but also reliable on shorter patterns?

Do any Chief fans have something good to say about Croyle? Dont think Ive ever seen it.

It's hard to gauge him just yet, based only on 6 starts! The kid has a great arm, moves well in the pocket, but struggled last year making the right read and reading defenses, only based on limited starts. All young QB's make those same mistakes. I am not saying Croyle is going to be spectacular by any means, but we just don't know what to expect as of yet!

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

For me, too. I think I may have to choose between these two in my draft.

For myself, I like Holmes' abilities, but the guy always seems to be dinged up. He'll play a week, then miss a week, etc., and he was a late scratch a couple times last year. In all fairness, I did have him as my No. 3/No. 4 WR and he did deliver when I really needed it.

Bowe has the look of a big-time No. 1 WR, but I just can't see him putting up those kind of numbers with Herm Edwards around. Even when Herm's had good teams, his WRs didn't deliver those prototype WR1 stats.

But to answer the original poster's question, in a PPR I think Bowe gives you more value, even if he's a bigger question mark.

 

[The Jacket]

Bowe has the look of a big-time No. 1 WR, but I just can't see him putting up those kind of numbers with Herm Edwards around. Even when Herm's had good teams, his WRs didn't deliver those prototype WR1 stats.

I think first of all you have to consider that Herm could be gone within a year or two. His contract ends after '10, only three years into Bowe's career, and he could be fired six months from now. Lastly, has Herm ever had a WR talent like Bowe? Coles put up an 89-1269-5 year under Herm, and I think the only reason he didn't get more TDs is because he's a limited receiver and the QB situation was never great. I think Bowe could be the type of receiver to catch lots of TDs in spite of a bad QB situation. He managed to do it a couple of times last year, and he mostly did it by beating a DB 1-on-1 when the ball was very much a toss-up/duck.If the QB'ing gets better, look out. It can't get worse.

 

[Chairshot]

Santonio Holmes' value degenerates too much when its a PPR

Meaning that he can't become a viable PPR threat, or just that he hasn't thus far? Sure, he hasn't been a top PPR option, but this makes it sounds like he won't get there.

What is your reasoning for thinking he will get there?

I was asking you thought he didn't, more than saying I think Holmes will get there. I think it is very possible that this year was Holmes' floor moving forward. I don't think I can say the same thing for Bowe. Can both improve? Sure they can. Bowe just has much more to lose.

That's cool. I just haven't really seen anyone put forth a solid argument about why Holmes will take a leap forward. I'm not saying there isn't an argument, I just don't see one and I haven't seen anyone else put one out there.That said, I still think Holmes is a legit player to have on your roster. To me, he's turning into a reliable "know what you're going to get and what you get is real good" type of player.Bowe may never be that. But I think he has a legit shot at being a fantasy WR1 due to his situation and skills.

 

[travdogg]

Coles put up an 89-1269-5 year under Herm, and I think the only reason he didn't get more TDs is because he's a limited receiver and the QB situation was never great.

Santana Moss put up an 1,100-10 year for Herm.I like both of these guys a lot but in the end it depends on how badly you need this WR. I like Bowe a little bit more in the long run but Holmes is much better for this year. I guess if I'm somewhere in between those 2 scenarios I'd go with Bowe.Whoever compared Holmes to Galloway is on the right track, I don't think he's as naturally talented as Galloway is though, so I'd say Terry Glenn might be a better comparison. Bowe looks like another Andre Johnson/Anquan Boldin type.

 

[JPeso]

Looks like Bowe is starting to get some separation here.