I think there are a few obvious explanations from people as to why he had so many attempts last year:
1) He's a star QB, and star QBs pass a lot.
2) His team's running game stunk
3) His defense wasn't all that good leading DET to pass frequently.
All of those hold some merit, but let's remember:
1) Romo is a stud QB, too, and he didn't pass nearly as much. Ditto Eli Manning or Philip Rivers.
2) True, his running game was bad. Then again, so was Eli Manning's. Tennessee's running game was terrible but they had under 600 passes. St. Louis couldn't run the ball but they had over 100 fewer passes than DET.
3) Yes and no. Detroit's D was perfectly average last year, maybe even slightly better than average. Detroit's opponents scored 6 non-offensive TDs last year inflating their points allowed total, but the Lions generally were a pretty decent defense in 2011 (despite looking like a bad arena league defense in the playoffs).
Let's look at things on a more granular level.
-- Before the week 9 bye, the Lions had 302 pass attempts; after the bye, Detroit had 364 pass attempts.
-- There were five games that got out of control early for Detroit, with the second Bears game being by far the ugliest. The Bears jumped out to a 20-point lead and Stafford threw two pick-sixes early in the 2nd half; he ended the game with a whopping 63 attempts in a game that was out of hand early. Against the Saints, New Orleans jumped out to a 17-0 lead and made it 24-7 at halftime. Detroit was in catchup mode most of the game; Stafford had 44 attempts. Against the Cowboys and Vikings, Detroit found themselves down big early but Stafford led great comebacks of 24 and 20 points; he threw 89 passes in those two games. Lastly, against the Packers (Thanksgiving), Green Bay raced out to an early lead and Kevin Smith went down with an injury; Stafford had 45 atatempts.
There were also what I would call two shootouts; against Newton and Flynn. In those games Stafford had wildly different attempt numbers, passing 36 times against CAR but 59 times vs. GB. That's in part due to Kevin Smith running very well against CAR and the fact that GB's ability to race down the field so quickly (averaged 7.7 yards per play vs. CAR's 6.3).
There were four games where the Lions really dominated from start to finish. Interestingly, Stafford still had decent attempts numbers in all of these games. Against three AFC West teams -- Den, KC and SD -- the Lions obliterated them to the tune of 131-23. In the rematch against Minnesota, Detroit was up 21-0 with over 5 minutes left in the 1Q and 28-7 early in the 2nd. The Vikings nearly won this game, but the Lions held a huge lead for most of it.
In those four games, Stafford averaged 33.5 attempts.
There were two other high attempt games for Stafford: against SF and against OAK. Against the 49ers the Lions were in a battle the whole game but had no ability to run. Stafford wasn't all that effective, averaging under 6 yards per attempt, but Best/Morris had a 3.4 ypc average on 17 attempts. Against Oakland, Stafford had 21 attempts in the 4Q driving up his att numbers while leading a spirited comeback.
His low-attempt games tended to come early in the season and when things went according to plan, i.e., against TB and the first CHI game. I think expecting any 60-pass games is expecting too much, and simply having five games where he threw 50+ passes isn't going to happen again. Lions games seemed to feature a lot of long TDs, which I think led to more drives both for and against DET.
The attempt numbers have to come down, especially if the running game gets even a little better. But unless Detroit becomes an elite team, it's hard to see them dropping out of the top seven or eight. It's also worth realizing that some of the high attempt numbers are simply a reflection that Stafford just isn't there yet. Someone like Rodgers will have fewer attempts as long as he's so efficient.
