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Predict the final game of the regular season (1 Viewer)

Regardless of the outcomes in Week 17, the winner of the Jaguars and Titans game in Week 18 is guaranteed to win the AFC South.
Also, Atlanta was eliminated today, so Bucs-Falcons is out. Still think that if the league has a choice, they’ll avoid the Malik Willis Bowl. But i think Balt-Cinci is the only other possibility in play

So does this mean that there’s a risk of Titans and Jags players being benched next week since it’s all about week 18?
I doubt they bench Henry or Lawrence or all their other starters for the entire game. But I do remember the Cowboys having a similar scenario one year when Romo (who was my fantasy QB) banged his thumb in the second play of the game. They pulled him as a precaution and he was fine by the following week. My fantasy team? Not so much.

So probably not something you can plan for, but if you have a marginal roster choice, you may want to consider it
 
Regardless of the outcomes in Week 17, the winner of the Jaguars and Titans game in Week 18 is guaranteed to win the AFC South.
Also, Atlanta was eliminated today, so Bucs-Falcons is out. Still think that if the league has a choice, they’ll avoid the Malik Willis Bowl. But i think Balt-Cinci is the only other possibility in play

So does this mean that there’s a risk of Titans and Jags players being benched next week since it’s all about week 18?
I doubt they bench Henry or Lawrence or all their other starters for the entire game. But I do remember the Cowboys having a similar scenario one year when Romo (who was my fantasy QB) banged his thumb in the second play of the game. They pulled him as a precaution and he was fine by the following week. My fantasy team? Not so much.

So probably not something you can plan for, but if you have a marginal roster choice, you may want to consider it
Figures, I got Henry & Burrow. Point spreads seem to be adjusting, Ten +7.5 at home seems a bit higher than I thought. Jax -4.5 at Houston is the other one.
 
When people talk about Titans-Jags not being a great game, they’re missing the point. The NFL loves a matchup like this for the final Sunday Night. When the winner advances and the loser is eliminated, it’s a de facto playoff game one week early. Ravens-Bengals, even if it’s for the division, is far less compelling since both teams advance regardless of the outcome
 
So does this mean that there’s a risk of Titans and Jags players being benched next week since it’s all about week 18?
Yes. Next week doesn't matter to either team. Week 18 is winner-take-all no matter what the Jags and Titans do in Week17.

No shot at the wild card for the loser, if they win in week 17?

At the moment, pending the results of the last two games, it appears mathematically possible for the Titans to beat Dallas on Thursday, lose to the Jags, and still make the playoffs as a wild card
 
When people talk about Titans-Jags not being a great game, they’re missing the point. The NFL loves a matchup like this for the final Sunday Night. When the winner advances and the loser is eliminated, it’s a de facto playoff game one week early. Ravens-Bengals, even if it’s for the division, is far less compelling since both teams advance regardless of the outcome
Could be, but the league (and equally important, NBC) wants a game that will get ratings. A matchup between the team representing the NFL’s smallest market and another QBd by Malik Willis us unlikely to do huge numbers
 
I may have this wrong, but I think if Tampa loses tonight and then again to the Panthers next week, and if the Saints beat the Eagles next week, then Car-NO would be for the division in Week 18
 
Still looking like Jax-Tenn is most likely, and I think Bal-Cinci is highly unlikely because we won’t know the stakes of the game for sure until after MNF, but with Detroit’s win and Washington’s loss, we’re halfway toward GB-Det playing for the 7th seed. Packers need to win and Seattle needs to lose.

If that option is available, no way the NFL chooses Josh Dobbs in prime time over Rodgers
 
Still looking like Jax-Tenn is most likely, and I think Bal-Cinci is highly unlikely because we won’t know the stakes of the game for sure until after MNF, but with Detroit’s win and Washington’s loss, we’re halfway toward GB-Det playing for the 7th seed. Packers need to win and Seattle needs to lose.

If that option is available, no way the NFL chooses Josh Dobbs in prime time over Rodgers
Nah, they’re choosing the 👑 and Goldilocks.
 
Looking more likely it could be DET-GB for the final wildcard slot.
Don’t think so. With Seattle’s win, they hold the tiebreaker over Detroit. If they beat the Rams next week, they should clinch. My guess is the league puts both of those games on the 4:25 window and Tenn-Jax on SNF
But if Green Bay wins they are in over Seattle, yes?
Yes I think you’re right. They didn’t play this year, but GB has a better conference record, so if both win they take it. But GB-Det can’t be win-and-in unless Seattle loses
 
Still looking like Jax-Tenn is most likely, and I think Bal-Cinci is highly unlikely because we won’t know the stakes of the game for sure until after MNF, but with Detroit’s win and Washington’s loss, we’re halfway toward GB-Det playing for the 7th seed. Packers need to win and Seattle needs to lose.

If that option is available, no way the NFL chooses Josh Dobbs in prime time over Rodgers
I think BUF/NE has more Sat legs than BAL/CIN, but it depends on the outcome of these 2 primetime games
 
Looking more likely it could be DET-GB for the final wildcard slot.
Don’t think so. With Seattle’s win, they hold the tiebreaker over Detroit. If they beat the Rams next week, they should clinch. My guess is the league puts both of those games on the 4:25 window and Tenn-Jax on SNF
But if Green Bay wins they are in over Seattle, yes?
Yes I think you’re right. They didn’t play this year, but GB has a better conference record, so if both win they take it. But GB-Det can’t be win-and-in unless Seattle loses
I missed the Seattle effect :bag: . I think Detroit needs to win and Seattle lose to get in.
 
Still looking like Jax-Tenn is most likely, and I think Bal-Cinci is highly unlikely because we won’t know the stakes of the game for sure until after MNF, but with Detroit’s win and Washington’s loss, we’re halfway toward GB-Det playing for the 7th seed. Packers need to win and Seattle needs to lose.

If that option is available, no way the NFL chooses Josh Dobbs in prime time over Rodgers
I think BUF/NE has more Sat legs than BAL/CIN, but it depends on the outcome of these 2 primetime games
Highly doubt they make Buffalo go from a road Monday night game to playing on Saturday on short notice.
 
Still looking like Jax-Tenn is most likely, and I think Bal-Cinci is highly unlikely because we won’t know the stakes of the game for sure until after MNF, but with Detroit’s win and Washington’s loss, we’re halfway toward GB-Det playing for the 7th seed. Packers need to win and Seattle needs to lose.

If that option is available, no way the NFL chooses Josh Dobbs in prime time over Rodgers
I think BUF/NE has more Sat legs than BAL/CIN, but it depends on the outcome of these 2 primetime games
Highly doubt they make Buffalo go from a road Monday night game to playing on Saturday on short notice.
Good point. Wonder if that means Cinci-Balt is out for Saturday, too
 
Still looking like Jax-Tenn is most likely, and I think Bal-Cinci is highly unlikely because we won’t know the stakes of the game for sure until after MNF, but with Detroit’s win and Washington’s loss, we’re halfway toward GB-Det playing for the 7th seed. Packers need to win and Seattle needs to lose.

If that option is available, no way the NFL chooses Josh Dobbs in prime time over Rodgers
I think BUF/NE has more Sat legs than BAL/CIN, but it depends on the outcome of these 2 primetime games
Highly doubt they make Buffalo go from a road Monday night game to playing on Saturday on short notice.
That was on my mind and why they wouldn't do it, but ultimately drama and ratings trump all.
 
haven’t read through the thread but this tweet made sense to me:
  • Saturday 4 pm ET: Rams at Seahawks
  • Saturday 8 pm ET: Titans at Jaguars
  • SNF: Lions at Packers
-Seahawks game is important because it puts pressure on GB and DET.

-TEN-JAX is win or go home game
 
haven’t read through the thread but this tweet made sense to me:
  • Saturday 4 pm ET: Rams at Seahawks
  • Saturday 8 pm ET: Titans at Jaguars
  • SNF: Lions at Packers
-Seahawks game is important because it puts pressure on GB and DET.

-TEN-JAX is win or go home game
I don't understand the Rams/Hawks logic. The NFL is not extracting eyeballs from casual fan by putting that Sat afternoon.
 
haven’t read through the thread but this tweet made sense to me:
  • Saturday 4 pm ET: Rams at Seahawks
  • Saturday 8 pm ET: Titans at Jaguars
  • SNF: Lions at Packers
-Seahawks game is important because it puts pressure on GB and DET.

-TEN-JAX is win or go home game
I don't understand the Rams/Hawks logic. The NFL is not extracting eyeballs from casual fan by putting that Sat afternoon.

purely for the DET @ GB setup

GB is win and in either way
Det is win and in if Baker pulls another one out of his butt

SEA wins the tiebreak v DET and loses tiebreak to GB - play them first so it’s known if it’s win and in for both or just the Packers

:shrug:

I’m the most myopic homer on the board so what sounds good to me isn’t necessarily logical lol.
 
haven’t read through the thread but this tweet made sense to me:
  • Saturday 4 pm ET: Rams at Seahawks
  • Saturday 8 pm ET: Titans at Jaguars
  • SNF: Lions at Packers
-Seahawks game is important because it puts pressure on GB and DET.

-TEN-JAX is win or go home game
Can certainly see this, partly for AAron, partly because Detroit has been exciting and gotten fans interested since hard knocks.
I hadn’t considered the Saturday night game which could work for some ratings as many fans will be interested but they’re not big markets.
 
haven’t read through the thread but this tweet made sense to me:
  • Saturday 4 pm ET: Rams at Seahawks
  • Saturday 8 pm ET: Titans at Jaguars
  • SNF: Lions at Packers
-Seahawks game is important because it puts pressure on GB and DET.

-TEN-JAX is win or go home game
I don't understand the Rams/Hawks logic. The NFL is not extracting eyeballs from casual fan by putting that Sat afternoon.

purely for the DET @ GB setup

GB is win and in either way
Det is win and in if Baker pulls another one out of his butt

SEA wins the tiebreak v DET and loses tiebreak to GB - play them first so it’s known if it’s win and in for both or just the Packers

:shrug:

I’m the most myopic homer on the board so what sounds good to me isn’t necessarily logical lol.
I think Detroit/Green Bay will and should be the SNF game. I have no interest in watching Seattle/LA though. And I'm not casual fan. I think the other Sat game will have AFC playoff implications.
 
I may be misremembering, but I feel like they usually announce the final week matchup at halftime of the previous SNF game unless it’s dependent on that game’s outcome. NBC just declined to announce it, which makes me think they’re waiting on the Ravens-Steelers result. If Ravens win then next week’s game is for the division. I’m starting to think the league will choose that even though both teams are already in the playoffs. If Steelers win it will be Jags-Titans because they don’t want to risk Cinci clinching tomorrow night and can’t wait until after MNF to announce.

I don’t think they put Det-GB on SNF if there’s a chance it’s meaningless to Detroit. IMO they either put both of those games on Saturday or, more likely, schedule both simultaneously at 4:25 Sunday
 
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My guess for Saturday games: SF-AZ followed by PHI-NYG. Assuming Niners take care of business in the early game, Eagles have to win to clinch HFA. Giants are locked in but they probably don’t roll over vs. Eagles.
 
I may be misremembering, but I feel like they usually announce the final week matchup at halftime of the previous SNF game unless it’s dependent on that game’s outcome. NBC just declined to announce it, which makes me think they’re waiting on the Ravens-Steelers result. If Ravens win then next week’s game is for the division. I’m starting to think the league will choose that even though both teams are already in the playoffs. If Steelers win it will be Jags-Titans.

I don’t think they put Det-GB on SNF if there’s a chance it’s meaningless to Detroit. IMO they either put both of those games on Saturday or, more likely, schedule both simultaneously at 4:25 Sunday
You may have a point with BAL/CIN, but JAX/TEN isn't gonna be it. It has similar meaningless potential for one team as DET/GB.
 
I may be misremembering, but I feel like they usually announce the final week matchup at halftime of the previous SNF game unless it’s dependent on that game’s outcome. NBC just declined to announce it, which makes me think they’re waiting on the Ravens-Steelers result. If Ravens win then next week’s game is for the division. I’m starting to think the league will choose that even though both teams are already in the playoffs. If Steelers win it will be Jags-Titans.

I don’t think they put Det-GB on SNF if there’s a chance it’s meaningless to Detroit. IMO they either put both of those games on Saturday or, more likely, schedule both simultaneously at 4:25 Sunday
You may have a point with BAL/CIN, but JAX/TEN isn't gonna be it. It has similar meaningless potential for one team as DET/GB.
Disagree. There’s a difference between a team that is eliminated and one that has clinched a wildcard but still has a shot at the division. No team is ever going to willingly concede a home playoff game (especially not since that would cost the owner a lot of money).

Also not sure what it would take for Jax to clinch a wildcard before their game starts but I think it would require a few unlikely outcomes
 
Detroit was 21-24% to make the playoffs depending on the source start of the day

Now 11-17%

Need Stafford to come off IR for Week 18 & top his Cleveland game

he can’t, not designated IR-R….I’m in denial
 
Wow, I was wrong. Jax-Tenn is on Saturday. I guess the league/NBC couldn’t stomach the ratings suck that game would represent.

They’ll announce the rest of the schedule tomorrow. Do they wait until after MNF to see if Balt-Cinco will be meaningful? Do they go with GB-Det and take a chance on Seattle losing?
 
Now that we know the Saturday games I think they are down to 2 scenarios depending on tomorrow night's result.

1) If Buffalo win this week then most likely it will be Buffalo vs New England IMO. In order for this game to have zero meaning you would need 3 upsets to happen:. Raiders over KC, Jets over Miami, AND Browns over Steelers (this would lock Buf as #1 and NE as #7). But the chalk would be that NE would need the win to make it and BUF would need the win for the bye. NBC will gamble for those stakes.

2) If Cincinnati wins that probably changes the calculus. While a Vegas upset win would open the door for the Bengals to get the 1 seed, they wouldn't bank on it. Same with Buffalo in that scenario. More likely that Pittsburgh plays at 1 and NE and Miami both play at 4 (maybe they all play at 1 even). Anyway if Bengals win tomorrow then NBC shifts over to Lions vs Packers since the game will count for Green Bay no matter what happens with the bonus that it is a true playoff if the Seahawks lose.

I guess you have the tie scenario too but in that one Buffalo no longer controls the 1 and the Bengals would be locked into the #3 so the decision would play out the same as scenario 2 above.

TLDR:.

BUF wins Monday then it is BUF vs NE on SNF

CIN win or tie then it is GB vs DET on SNF.


:grad:

-QG
 
Wow, I was wrong. Jax-Tenn is on Saturday. I guess the league/NBC couldn’t stomach the ratings suck that game would represent.

They’ll announce the rest of the schedule tomorrow. Do they wait until after MNF to see if Balt-Cinco will be meaningful? Do they go with GB-Det and take a chance on Seattle losing?
Correct me if I am mistaken, but I believe they're waiting on MNF for BUF/NE; not CIN/BAL.

NE already controls their own destiny for the 7. If BUF wins then they control their own destintly for the 1. MIA/NYJ and PIT/CLE play at 1 to setup the scenarios while AZ/SF, PHI/NYG, DAL/WASH, DET/GB, and LAR/SEA all play at 4.

If CIN wins then we get DET/GB since there is no foolproof option. It probably is though. This DET team is not gonna lay down in that spot like PHI did.

EDIT quizguy beat me to it
 
If the concept of competitive balance exists in knowing whether or not your game means anything the LAR-SEA game has to happen at the same time as the DET-GB game.

If SEA wins it then means DET has nothing to play for giving GB an advantage. Again, this has to mean you believe that knowing your playoff status affects how you play.

Personally, I can’t believe the NFL would put themselves in this position. Otherwise, what’s the point of delaying the ENTIRE NFL schedule for the last week? Isn’t it to avoid this exact situation?
 
Wow, I was wrong. Jax-Tenn is on Saturday. I guess the league/NBC couldn’t stomach the ratings suck that game would represent.

They’ll announce the rest of the schedule tomorrow. Do they wait until after MNF to see if Balt-Cinco will be meaningful? Do they go with GB-Det and take a chance on Seattle losing?
Correct me if I am mistaken, but I believe they're waiting on MNF for BUF/NE; not CIN/BAL.

NE already controls their own destiny for the 7. If BUF wins then they control their own destintly for the 1. MIA/NYJ and PIT/CLE play at 1 to setup the scenarios while AZ/SF, PHI/NYG, DAL/WASH, DET/GB, and LAR/SEA all play at 4.

If CIN wins then we get DET/GB since there is no foolproof option. It probably is though. This DET team is not gonna lay down in that spot like PHI did.

EDIT quizguy beat me to it
Good points by you and @QuizGuy66 . I hadn’t considered Buf-NE because there’s never been a flex game that had different implications for each team. It’s always been teams fighting for the same playoff slot. But I see no reason it couldn’t happen.

Of course, we’re all ignoring the 2018 option. Especially if Cinci wins, league could just cancel the SNF game. Seems hard to imagine they’d pass up a chance to put Rodgers in prime time, but depends on how hard they want to stick to the “must have implications for both teams” rule
 
If the concept of competitive balance exists in knowing whether or not your game means anything the LAR-SEA game has to happen at the same time as the DET-GB game.

If SEA wins it then means DET has nothing to play for giving GB an advantage. Again, this has to mean you believe that knowing your playoff status affects how you play.

Personally, I can’t believe the NFL would put themselves in this position. Otherwise, what’s the point of delaying the ENTIRE NFL schedule for the last week? Isn’t it to avoid this exact situation?

Doing 5 windows instead of 3 is the real mistake here. It almost never works out with enough games that won't impact others played later.

-QG
 
Hey fellas just trying to keep up - so this happened:

The league has announced that the Saturday schedule will look like this in Week 18:

and now the only thing we're waiting on is announcing the SNF game? Is that where we're at?
 
If the concept of competitive balance exists in knowing whether or not your game means anything the LAR-SEA game has to happen at the same time as the DET-GB game.

If SEA wins it then means DET has nothing to play for giving GB an advantage. Again, this has to mean you believe that knowing your playoff status affects how you play.

Personally, I can’t believe the NFL would put themselves in this position. Otherwise, what’s the point of delaying the ENTIRE NFL schedule for the last week? Isn’t it to avoid this exact situation?
In the vast majority of cases I agree on this, but even if DET is eliminated by virtue of SEA clinching, I have to think Dan Campbell is a proud man who won’t let the season end without a fight and DET would want to make a statement by taking GB down with them. Too much pride to tank the way PHI did a few years back (with the two being worlds apart as far as draft positioning goes). Mix that with the “win and you’re in” and the “is this Aaron Rodgers’ last game?” narrative the media loves to run with, I could see them still gambling on DET-GB being competitive enough to be watchable.

ETA - One of my favorite non-homer regular season games happened at the end of the 1999 season. 7-8 Oakland Raiders with nothing to play for except pride, at Arrowhead Stadium with the 9-6 Kansas City Chiefs playing for a chance to clinch the division. Raiders rallied back from an early 17-0 deficit to make it a back and forth affair that ended with the Raiders winning in OT. It knocked the Chiefs out of the playoffs and handed the division to the Seattle Seahawks (crazy to remember they were in the AFC West before… I still remember the Houston Astros being a NL team, the Milwaukee Brewers being an AL team, the Detroit Red Wings as a western conference team, etc.)
 
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If the concept of competitive balance exists in knowing whether or not your game means anything the LAR-SEA game has to happen at the same time as the DET-GB game.

If SEA wins it then means DET has nothing to play for giving GB an advantage. Again, this has to mean you believe that knowing your playoff status affects how you play.

Personally, I can’t believe the NFL would put themselves in this position. Otherwise, what’s the point of delaying the ENTIRE NFL schedule for the last week? Isn’t it to avoid this exact situation?
The NFL cares about ratings much much more than competitive balance
 

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