predicting injury (1 Viewer)

[PhD]

Sorry if there is an article about this somewhere but I'm just getting into the cheatsheets and it occured to me that positions and overall value (i.e., total points predicted for a season) are shaped pretty significantly by the potential for injury and lost games. For example, a major part of the debate between Vick and Rogers comes down to number of games expected to be on the field. Many people predict Vick will score more per game but he will be hurt more often, play less and lose value. Are these kinds of predictions valid and genrally accurate? It seems intuitive, especially with players who have a pattern of injuries in their history, but even in these cases - should this be counted statistically into the value charts, or should it just have a "caution" sign on the number?

 

[Shane Falco]

Dunno, you're the doctor

http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=337723

Rogers has a concussion history already so I'm not sure its easy to predict injury with anyone other than Fred Taylor. I personally just draft certain guys with caution

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

No it isn't a good idea to predict injuries. You're better off selecting players because you think they will score the most fantasy points, not that they might get a chance to start if the starter goes down, or you take a lesser player because you're afraid of injury. The term injury prone is overrated in my opinion. Now if you want to draft someone late for that reason then knock yourself out, but don't pass on good players for the sake of hoping for an injury. Also, don't pass on better players because you think they will get hurt.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Try not to in my projections but sometimes you have too for guys like Reggie Bush or McNabb guys who constanly not playing 16 games. But to offset when do that make note in projections and look at FF points per game

 

[fightingillini]

No it isn't a good idea to predict injuries. You're better off selecting players because you think they will score the most fantasy points, not that they might get a chance to start if the starter goes down, or you take a lesser player because you're afraid of injury. The term injury prone is overrated in my opinion. Now if you want to draft someone late for that reason then knock yourself out, but don't pass on good players for the sake of hoping for an injury. Also, don't pass on better players because you think they will get hurt.

I project all players to play 16 games. I make note of more injury prone players and I only take it into account when I am debating between 2 similar players....So don't pass on Vick if he's the best player available just because he's likely to miss time. Many players miss some time, just draft good depth to cover it. (IMO, V Young is a must for Vick owners, and you can get him very late)

 

[Insein]

No it isn't a good idea to predict injuries. You're better off selecting players because you think they will score the most fantasy points, not that they might get a chance to start if the starter goes down, or you take a lesser player because you're afraid of injury. The term injury prone is overrated in my opinion. Now if you want to draft someone late for that reason then knock yourself out, but don't pass on good players for the sake of hoping for an injury. Also, don't pass on better players because you think they will get hurt.

I project all players to play 16 games. I make note of more injury prone players and I only take it into account when I am debating between 2 similar players....So don't pass on Vick if he's the best player available just because he's likely to miss time. Many players miss some time, just draft good depth to cover it. (IMO, V Young is a must for Vick owners, and you can get him very late)

Vince Young may not even make the final cut. Check the Philly thread.

 

[glong989]

I think you should certainly consider injury when taking some late round backup RBs that could be gold should the starter go down.

As far as early round picks go then I think you only use injury history when comparing two pretty similar players. Obviously if someone like Gates is currently hobbled then you should definitely take this into account because it could linger into the season. You can't simply project him to play 16 games and draft as you normally would..

 

[fightingillini]

No it isn't a good idea to predict injuries. You're better off selecting players because you think they will score the most fantasy points, not that they might get a chance to start if the starter goes down, or you take a lesser player because you're afraid of injury. The term injury prone is overrated in my opinion. Now if you want to draft someone late for that reason then knock yourself out, but don't pass on good players for the sake of hoping for an injury. Also, don't pass on better players because you think they will get hurt.

I project all players to play 16 games. I make note of more injury prone players and I only take it into account when I am debating between 2 similar players....So don't pass on Vick if he's the best player available just because he's likely to miss time. Many players miss some time, just draft good depth to cover it. (IMO, V Young is a must for Vick owners, and you can get him very late)

Vince Young may not even make the final cut. Check the Philly thread.

Yep, my bad.........

 

[footballnerd]

I think Addai is a good example of a player that can produce higher than where is drafted, but his adp has dropped because people fear his history, and I don't blame 'em.

 

[Touchdown There]

I personally just draft certain guys with caution.

Do you draft guys with caution at their ADP, or behind their ADP?

 

[ImTheScientist]

Im predicting an Arian Foster injury this season....for that reason I drafted Ben Tate.

 

[Shane Falco]

I personally just draft certain guys with caution.

Do you draft guys with caution at their ADP, or behind their ADP?

It depends who and how much impact. I'd still take Andre Johnson late first. A guy like Owen Daniels I may not consider until he has slipped a little bit. It depends on your own faith in them. Look a Percy harvin, a have a buddy who doesn't trust the migranes and he have to drop a couple rounds before he'd draft. Others have no worries

 

[FantasyTrader]

Not saying I predict injury per se, but I'll definitely move players down my board with an injury history or outright avoid them to the point of being dared to take them.

 

[LawFitz]

I don't understand how you cannot downgrade certain guys for injury risk - many components go into the thought process, including style of play, usage, and prior history, making it a difficult exercise, but to flat out ignore the concept is unwise IMO.

 

[Mark Wimer]

It depends on the injury you are considering. For example: I fully expect to read about the following tight ends having their knees drained on a regular basis during 2011:

Kellen Winslow - his surgically repaired knee (the one he shredded in the motorcycle accident) has never been quite right since. Pain management techniques and draining are necessary on this chronic and recurring injury (loose bodies in the knee (meaning chips of bone and chunks of cartilage, if there IS still cartilage in there)).

Chris Cooley - he is also having chronic issues with a knee that requires drainage and etc.

I am very comfortable saying that the two guys above (among others) will continue to have injury issues with their knees. Winslow only practices about once a week since arriving in Tampa because the team wants to shield the knee from as much wear-and-tear as possible

I do NOT expect to hear more about the following injuries:

Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo's broken clavicles.

Broken bones generally actually heal more strongly in the area where they were broken due to extra calcification on the bone surfaces (except in the case of very extensive breaks - shattered/spirally broken bones like the leg injury that SEA WR Deon Butler is dealing with).

In the case of other players, who have had repeated problems with a joint but not a degenerative condition, you can generally expect an elevated risk of re-injury, but it isn't as certain as the chronic problems like Winslow's and Cooley's.

Michael Vick's history of problems with his A/C joints (shoulders) is an example of "increased risk".

Go read THIS (free for anyone, released 7/14) for more discussion and current examples.

MW

 

[Marauder]

I don't understand how you cannot downgrade certain guys for injury risk - many components go into the thought process, including style of play, usage, and prior history, making it a difficult exercise, but to flat out ignore the concept is unwise IMO.

You have to be careful that you are doing it for valid reasons though. Just because a guy got hurt the last two years in a row is not enough of a reason to project it will happen again but, for example, if you have a QB who has a tendency to stand in the pocket too long and plays behind a bad OL or a RB who runs too upright and takes a lot of hits, it's absurd not to factor their injury risk into your projections.

 

[PhD]

It depends on the injury you are considering. For example: I fully expect to read about the following tight ends having their knees drained on a regular basis during 2011:

Kellen Winslow - his surgically repaired knee (the one he shredded in the motorcycle accident) has never been quite right since. Pain management techniques and draining are necessary on this chronic and recurring injury (loose bodies in the knee (meaning chips of bone and chunks of cartilage, if there IS still cartilage in there)).

Chris Cooley - he is also having chronic issues with a knee that requires drainage and etc.

I am very comfortable saying that the two guys above (among others) will continue to have injury issues with their knees. Winslow only practices about once a week since arriving in Tampa because the team wants to shield the knee from as much wear-and-tear as possible

I do NOT expect to hear more about the following injuries:

Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo's broken clavicles.

Broken bones generally actually heal more strongly in the area where they were broken due to extra calcification on the bone surfaces (except in the case of very extensive breaks - shattered/spirally broken bones like the leg injury that SEA WR Deon Butler is dealing with).

In the case of other players, who have had repeated problems with a joint but not a degenerative condition, you can generally expect an elevated risk of re-injury, but it isn't as certain as the chronic problems like Winslow's and Cooley's.

Michael Vick's history of problems with his A/C joints (shoulders) is an example of "increased risk".

Go read THIS (free for anyone, released 7/14) for more discussion and current examples.

MW

This is great Mark. Now, consider that Stafford and Romo are both down a notch or two in the projections behind QBs with less PointsPerGame but more total points because they are projected for a full 16 games while Romo and Stafford are not. I think this can be misleading... sort of. All in all this makes your article an important one to consider.