I think Peyton Manning will be the number 1 qb this year. The addition of Welker, a year stronger from the neck injury, another year working with DT and Decker, plus the fact that the Broncs are going to try to speed up their offense to get more snaps, all points to 40+ TDs and close to 5000 yards. Rogers, Brees and Brady may all go before Manning, but I'd love to get the old man in the 2nd round.
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Khy
Footballguy
I also have Manning rated as the #1 QB on my personal projections. I won't get him because I refuse to draft QBs as early as I would have to in order to snag him. I really don't see a reason too in most standard scoring leagues. There is SOOOOOO much depth at QB these days. In a 12 team league you're nearly guaranteed top level production. I'd much rather have the style of teams I've had the past few years where I end the season with 2 RB1s and a WR1 and another 2 RB2s and 3 WR2-3s. While still having a low QB1.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I would want Thomas because he's a productive receiver. But I would not want Thomas expecting him to do BETTER than he did last year. At this point, it might be even safe to question if he is getting drafted too high given the addition of Welker.
I've read posts here (and other places) that suggest that the 3 DEN receivers (and by extension Manning) are going to all produce lights out numbers. That somehow Thomas and Decker will do better than last year and Welker will approach his totals from NE. IMO, I don't see that happening, as there are only so many passes to catch. The likelihood is that having 3 great receivers on the same team will reduce the totals for all of them.
I realize this is an apples to oranges comparison, but people said the same thing about the Miami Heat when James-Bosh-Wade teamed up. Some folks concluded that their individual stats would all go UP based on the fact that defenses couldn't adequately guard all of them.
Well, here we are 3 years later. Lebron's scoring this year was off 2.9 points from his last season in CLE, Bosh scored 7.4 points per game less than in TOR, and Wade scored 5.4 points less than he did without those two guys. That's almost 16 points combined less than they scored individually.
I suspect something similar will happen in DEN. One receiver will take a minor hit, one will take a bigger hit, and one of them will see a much greater hit. If I had to guess, I would match up Thomas, Decker, and Welker to those outcomes. The bottom line is Manning will only throw a certain amount of passes. Even if he throws more than last year (and he almost threw the ball 600 times), I think it's highly unlikely those 3 guys will generate a total of 468 targets like they did last year.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I was reading your whole post, nodding in agreement, until I got to this line. This was eye opening for me, but not the way you intended it. I think it's possible that they all get as many targets as they did last year. Denver doesn't really feature a TE, and while they'll throw to their running backs, it's not like Ball or Hillman demand 50+ targets each. When your progression is between those three stud WRs, you're rarely going to need to go to your fourth option. And the Broncos are looking to increase their tempo to get even more offensive plays. 468 targets out of 600 pass attempts (give or take a few) sounds much more doable to me than I'd originally thought.
EBF
Footballguy
IMO Thomas is the LeBron of that bunch. Decker is more of a solid #2 than an overwhelming primary target. Welker is a nice player, but he was a system-dependent guy who didn't look like anything special until he got to New England. He's also 32 years old at a position that isn't forgiving of players who lose a step.
DT looks like the real deal to me. An absolute height/weight/speed monster. I don't think everyone has realized how good he is yet. He's as talented as almost any WR in the game. I think he's the alpha of Denver's receiving group by a pretty wide margin.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
Aside from Calvin Johnson, he's the best combo of size/speed at the WR position imo. I'm not too concerned with a bump in targets because the targets he gets will likely be of higher quality than last year considering teams will have to pay more attention to the middle of the field with the addition of Welker. Thomas is the deep threat and he's the guy they like to get the ball to in space (see last year's screen pass vs. Pitt). Combine that with the fact he's another year removed from the achilles and a full season/offseason with Manning and I'm buying. I hope the addition of Welker scares people off because while I don't think his targets are going to increase substantially, I think the relationship w/ Manning combined with higher quality targets will result in nice dividends.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The stats among different places vary by a couple passes here and there, but FBG has a total of 319 targets that did not go to Thomas and Decker. So, sure, technically those two could get the same targets and Welker could see his 188 targets like he did in NE, but that would only leave 131 targets leftover for everyone else (assuming the same volume of passes).
Last year, there were 150 targets to TEs, 84 to RBs, and 86 to other WR. I suppose it will depend on what sets the Broncos run and if they effectively want to keep a lot of skilled position guys out of the passing game. I don't see that happening, but I guess we'll find out . . .
EBF
Footballguy
If I'm not mistaken, Peyton-to-Thomas had a higher QB rating than any other QB-to-WR duo in the league last year. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I think Thomas is the one guy here who doesn't have to worry much about getting his share of the yards. He won't be force fed the ball like Marshall in Chicago or Calvin in Detroit, but when you average 10 yards per look you are going to get plenty of opportunities.
The other two guys seem more vulnerable to me. Decker because he's basically just a B grade version of Thomas. Welker because he's the new kid and the most limited in terms of the routes he can run and the plays he can make. I'd be really surprised if his target numbers were anywhere near his averages in New England. 100-120 seems more realistic than 170 to me. He'll get Stokley's 58, maybe 10-15 from Thomas, 15-25 from Decker, and a few scraps from the TEs.
The other two guys seem more vulnerable to me. Decker because he's basically just a B grade version of Thomas. Welker because he's the new kid and the most limited in terms of the routes he can run and the plays he can make. I'd be really surprised if his target numbers were anywhere near his averages in New England. 100-120 seems more realistic than 170 to me. He'll get Stokley's 58, maybe 10-15 from Thomas, 15-25 from Decker, and a few scraps from the TEs.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
And as a basis for comparison, I looked at the target data for the 2004 Colts. The big 3 receivers had 350 targets. In 2010 when Manning threw the ball 680 times, the top 3 targets had 373 targets. 468 targets to 3 guys seems very unlikely.
Again, that may not matter as the Colts had 3 Top 10 fantasy receivers with 350 targets.
Again, that may not matter as the Colts had 3 Top 10 fantasy receivers with 350 targets.
bostonfred
Footballguy
That's what I was thinking at first. But Stokley was the primary beneficiary of those WR targets. Welker fills his spot and then some. Tamme and Dreessen had an inordinately high number of targets, imo, due to the lack of a true wr3.Compare this to the 2004 Colts, which supported 86 catches for Harrison, 77 for Wayne, 68 for Stokley and 51 for Edge. Pollard and Clark, who had combined for 69 receptions the year before, caught just 54. When Manning had three WRs playing well, he went to them, as you'd expect. And they sustained three 1000 yard receivers.And while those numbers aren't high enough to justify the rankings for three stud receivers, consider this: the Colts did this with just 497 pass attempts on the season. The Broncos had 588 attempts in 2012, and Manning is a year healthier, has better targets, and is looking to pick up the tempo on the offense even more.I'm not saying that they will all have great years - in fact, I was in total agreement with your point - but now I'm taking a second look.
bostonfred
Footballguy
350/497 = 420/600. That's not 468, but it's not that huge a dropoff, either. Especially when you consider that the 2004 Colts had Edgerrin James catching 51 balls on his own. I would contend that Edge was the third option in the passing game, not Stokley, for most of that year. There's nobody comparable on the Colts this year. It's the big three targets and then a bunch of guys. Plus Welker (or whichever receiver you consider to be the 2013 Broncos' #3) is better than Stokley was. So I'd expect a slightly greater skew towards the big three than on the 2004 Colts.Again, just food for thought.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Where I think the extremely high target to only 3 guys axiom will get shot down is it will be the other DEN guys on the field that will be left uncovered or get mismatches. I doubt Peyton will force the ball to the big 3 if there is a TE open or a back roaming free out of the backfield. The other thing to consider is if the Broncos either run more by design or Manning audibles to running plays because the defense is playing only pass. As we've seen, Fox has been a more conservative coach in the pass and at times has run the ball, perhaps even too much. If nothing else, it makes for an interesting dynamic and will be fun to follow.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Denver does feature a TE. Probably 90% of their offense is run out of 11 or 12 personnel (with Dreessen on the field in both packages and Tamme coming on in 12). Peyton has historically preferred 12, because seeing how the defense was lined up against the second TE is probably his #1 read in terms of diagnosing what defense has been called and getting into the right play. I suspect with Welker we'll see a lot more 11, but the tight end is still going to be an important part of the offense, even if it isn't the first read. And, of course, the backs will always be involved as hot reads and safety valves against blitzes or when everyone is covered downfield. I think Denver would be very hard pressed to run 75-80% of their targets through three guys.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Your point is well taken, Adam, but I would be surprised if they had a lot of 2 TE sets this year. I think the TE receptions will drop off significantly as a result. The 2003 Colts had 59 receptions from Clark and Pollard. The 2004 Colts had 3 1000 yard receivers, and as a result, their TE production dropped 25% to 44 receptions. I would expect a similar result here, barring injury.
Again, though, I tend to agree with both of you. My gut feel is that there will be some dropoff among the three receivers, and it's just a matter of who and how much. The part that I find interesting, though, is that I had previously assumed that the numbers would indicate that it was impossible for them to all get as many targets as they had last year. I was surprised to see that it wasn't that big a stretch for them to get similar targets to what they'd each gotten last year.
Remember, too, that the production per target for Decker and Thomas may go up, since they're both young receivers and they are in year two with Peyton. There's no guarantee that they will, but would you really be surprised if Thomas had a career year this year? And while Brady used Welker as much as any QB used a receiver, it's entirely possible that Welker will be asked to run more productive routes under Peyton, since they already have an underneath guy in Decker who can free Welker up to run better routes.
If that's the case, then maybe we should be talking about the awesome year Peyton's going to have, instead of the down year that one or more of his receivers are going to have. Remember, too, that I'm the last person rooting for Welker to do better with Manning than with Brady, or for the Broncos to succeed at the expense of the Patriots. I don't own Manning or any of these three receivers in any league either. I was just surprised to see that this wasn't as much of a slam dunk as I'd have expected.
Again, though, I tend to agree with both of you. My gut feel is that there will be some dropoff among the three receivers, and it's just a matter of who and how much. The part that I find interesting, though, is that I had previously assumed that the numbers would indicate that it was impossible for them to all get as many targets as they had last year. I was surprised to see that it wasn't that big a stretch for them to get similar targets to what they'd each gotten last year.
Remember, too, that the production per target for Decker and Thomas may go up, since they're both young receivers and they are in year two with Peyton. There's no guarantee that they will, but would you really be surprised if Thomas had a career year this year? And while Brady used Welker as much as any QB used a receiver, it's entirely possible that Welker will be asked to run more productive routes under Peyton, since they already have an underneath guy in Decker who can free Welker up to run better routes.
If that's the case, then maybe we should be talking about the awesome year Peyton's going to have, instead of the down year that one or more of his receivers are going to have. Remember, too, that I'm the last person rooting for Welker to do better with Manning than with Brady, or for the Broncos to succeed at the expense of the Patriots. I don't own Manning or any of these three receivers in any league either. I was just surprised to see that this wasn't as much of a slam dunk as I'd have expected.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I wouldn't be surprised to see Demaryius have a career year, but I would be pretty surprised to see him improve on last year's per-target numbers. As EBF pointed out, Manning-to-Thomas was the highest rated connection in the league last year. He averaged nearly 10 yards per target. That kind of performance is as much of an outlier as Peterson's 6.0 ypc. Like Peterson, even though Thomas is a stud, that level of production isn't sustainable and I'd expect his per-target production to regress some. If Thomas has a career year, it's more likely because he increases his targets to 160+ or because he starts getting more of those red-zone TDs that were going to Decker. Either of which is totally achievable and wouldn't surprise me in the least.
I also think that Welker will almost certainly be running higher-value routes in Denver than in New England. Denver uses its slot WR almost as much as New England, but it uses him differently. Denver's slot WR is used much more vertically than New England's, which is used more horizontally. Stokley got 12 yards per reception last year despite being the oldest WR in the league. Welker's only topped 12 YPC once in the last 7 years, and that was hugely aided by a fluky 99 yard TD reception. With Welker's preternatural quicks, I'd expect somewhere around 12.5-13.0 ypr from him.
I think Decker's the odd man out in the mix. I've got him at 32 in my rankings. I don't like that his fantasy value was heavily dependent on the TDs, which are volatile, and I think he's less talented than the two WRs he'll be sharing the field with.
Manning's the #3 QB in the staff consensus rankings (and #3 in my personal rankings, behind the hope-destroying cyborgs known as Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, who have accounted for 7 of the last 8 top-2 QB finishes). So I agree that no matter what the competition means for his WRs, it's nothing but gravy for Manning.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
"Wait for QB" is always a viable strategy if you identify the guy who finishes QB5 with an ADP of QB12, but if you whiff you'll be pretty far behind on a ppg basis. QB1 outscored QB12 by 7.8 points per game in my leagues last year, and the players drafted around QB12 last season (other than RG3 and Romo) all finished much lower.
It usually looks deep, but it seems like the players who finish QB5-QB12 change every season.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
This year really is different, though. You've got guys like Tony Romo, Robert Griffin, and Russell Wilson still sitting on the board once 9 or 10 QBs are gone. Romo has historically averaged as many points per game as Peyton Manning. Griffin was the top fantasy QB in the league last year when he was healthy. Wilson was QB6 from midseason to the end of the year, and is getting Percy Harvin to throw to. I agree that Rodgers and Brees and Manning are much better, safer bets... but the fact that you're able to get such accomplished quarterbacks so late in the process is a pretty compelling argument for waiting. If guys like that weren't available late, I guarantee you the ADP of the top guys would be significantly higher.
Khy
Footballguy
Pretty much what I'm getting at, I've taken this strategy in my 12 team big money redraft the past 3 seasons and it's worked out for me every single time. I'm usually a lot higher on some of the lower guys than others are though. It could just be a string of luck also, the first year we did this 4 years back I took Peyton in the first round and it was a miserable season because I lost out on a few of the top RBs in the draft and my team folded because of it. Ever since then I've been on this strategy in 2010 I got Rivers in 2011 I got Matt Ryan and last year RG3. So each year the "wait to pick" has worked out pretty good for me. This years class of Top 12 QBs is probably the highest it's been in 10-15 years. So I see no reason this doesn't work for me again barring injury. The main guys I'm targeting this year are Tannenhill and I'm assuming someone like a Russel Wilson or Carson Palmer will drop. I'm not super huge on Palmer but he has a big arm and a big Larry Fitzgerald and that's good enough for me. And if I wait a little bit too long I imagine he'll be there most of my draft to snag last minute in the event I get to ballsy and passup someone like Wilson.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
I tend to agree with the strategy, but I'm sure anyone who has played FF before has had it be successful and has had it backfire.
RG3 - the injuries have to be a concern.
Romo - 7 games with 1 TD pass or less in 2012.
Note: I'm not sure anyone has ever won a league I've played in with Romo as their QB. Food for thought. I'm sure someone has at some point... Week 16 was nice in 2012.
Wilson - Will an increase in attempts offset a likely regression in efficiency statistics? Tough defensive division.
Kaepernick - No Crabtree. Will defenses adjust to him?
Stafford - Is he 2011 or 2012?
Luck - Offensive line? Enough weapons? (This might be our guy)
Eli - Eli is Eli.
Freeman, Flacco, Dalton, Big Ben, Carson, Schaub, Bradford, Rivers. And so on...
There are a lot of names in the pool after the 5 "safe" QBs are gone. The trick is getting the right one or the right combination. It's a lot more difficult than just saying "I'll just wait on QB because it's so deep." Some of these guys are going to bomb, and your team will get killed at QB on a ppg basis.
*This should probably be a different thread altogether*
RG3 - the injuries have to be a concern.
Romo - 7 games with 1 TD pass or less in 2012.
Note: I'm not sure anyone has ever won a league I've played in with Romo as their QB. Food for thought. I'm sure someone has at some point... Week 16 was nice in 2012.
Wilson - Will an increase in attempts offset a likely regression in efficiency statistics? Tough defensive division.
Kaepernick - No Crabtree. Will defenses adjust to him?
Stafford - Is he 2011 or 2012?
Luck - Offensive line? Enough weapons? (This might be our guy)
Eli - Eli is Eli.
Freeman, Flacco, Dalton, Big Ben, Carson, Schaub, Bradford, Rivers. And so on...
There are a lot of names in the pool after the 5 "safe" QBs are gone. The trick is getting the right one or the right combination. It's a lot more difficult than just saying "I'll just wait on QB because it's so deep." Some of these guys are going to bomb, and your team will get killed at QB on a ppg basis.
*This should probably be a different thread altogether*
Donny Loved Bowling
Footballguy
I've had some success with wait-on-QB drafting, but I think a vital element of that strategy is to take a second QB relatively soon after taking your first one.
Khy
Footballguy
Hah yeah, it probably should be. I may just make it one.I tend to agree with the strategy, but I'm sure anyone who has played FF before has had it be successful and has had it backfire.
RG3 - the injuries have to be a concern.
Romo - 7 games with 1 TD pass or less in 2012.
Note: I'm not sure anyone has ever won a league I've played in with Romo as their QB. Food for thought. I'm sure someone has at some point... Week 16 was nice in 2012.
Wilson - Will an increase in attempts offset a likely regression in efficiency statistics? Tough defensive division.
Kaepernick - No Crabtree. Will defenses adjust to him?
Stafford - Is he 2011 or 2012?
Luck - Offensive line? Enough weapons? (This might be our guy)
Eli - Eli is Eli.
Freeman, Flacco, Dalton, Big Ben, Carson, Schaub, Bradford, Rivers. And so on...
There are a lot of names in the pool after the 5 "safe" QBs are gone. The trick is getting the right one or the right combination. It's a lot more difficult than just saying "I'll just wait on QB because it's so deep." Some of these guys are going to bomb, and your team will get killed at QB on a ppg basis.
*This should probably be a different thread altogether*
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
SSSHhhhhhhh, man dude let these fools think QB is deep.Grahamburn said:I tend to agree with the strategy, but I'm sure anyone who has played FF before has had it be successful and has had it backfire.
RG3 - the injuries have to be a concern.
Romo - 7 games with 1 TD pass or less in 2012.
Note: I'm not sure anyone has ever won a league I've played in with Romo as their QB. Food for thought. I'm sure someone has at some point... Week 16 was nice in 2012.
Wilson - Will an increase in attempts offset a likely regression in efficiency statistics? Tough defensive division.
Kaepernick - No Crabtree. Will defenses adjust to him?
Stafford - Is he 2011 or 2012?
Luck - Offensive line? Enough weapons? (This might be our guy)
Eli - Eli is Eli.
Freeman, Flacco, Dalton, Big Ben, Carson, Schaub, Bradford, Rivers. And so on...
There are a lot of names in the pool after the 5 "safe" QBs are gone. The trick is getting the right one or the right combination. It's a lot more difficult than just saying "I'll just wait on QB because it's so deep." Some of these guys are going to bomb, and your team will get killed at QB on a ppg basis.
*This should probably be a different thread altogether*
