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Preliminary MUST-HAVE Guy (1 Viewer)

JD8p

Footballguy
Most of us have them every year. That one guy that you are willing to take a round...or two...or maybe even three early just to make certain we land him.

There are some of us that can avoid this type of thinking, but I tend to not be one.

So who are some of the guys that we feel that way about?

For me, in a PPR league, I think Reggie Bush or TY Hilton sits atop my must have list.

 

Crippler

IBL Representative
It seemed to be Micheal Crabtree but where did that get me. Early exit in all the SL drafts.

Rob Housler has been someone else I have been eyeing for later rounds.

 

mquinnjr

Footballguy
I'd like to snag Michael Floyd late this year. Need to see how OTA's/camp/pre-season play out, but I think he starts to come on this year with a better QB and Fitz/Housler getting alot of attention. Time to see if we are starting to have something at the NFL level with the talent we saw in college.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
It's hard to take them "too early" when they're already ranked so high, but I'm way above the consensus on Jamaal Charles, Rob Gronkowski, and Percy Harvin. If I could walk away from a draft with all three of those guys (actually possible, given ADPs), I'd probably giggle like a school girl for a week.

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
Crippler said:
It seemed to be Micheal Crabtree but where did that get me. Early exit in all the SL drafts.
Years of hard-won experience has taught me never to view anyone as a "must-have" within the first ~50 picks or so. Drafting for highest floor in Round 1 and BPA (sometimes overall, sometimes positional) in the two or three rounds after that works out so much better.

But in the middle rounds there are guys I'm willing to grab a round early or spend an extra $2-3 on an auction to make sure I get. Based on the PDSL and SSL ADPs my preliminary list might include:

  • Josh Freeman - will gladly target this guy as half of any QBBC's I roll with. He's going last in his "tier" (behind Eli, Dalton, Big Ben, Flacco) and I fully expect him to put up the best numbers of any of them, possibly a low-end QB1 year.
  • Chris Ivory - can't help but think he's in line for a big season behind the Jets' O-line. I want to be one of the first to pick up an RB3 in every league just so I can target this guy.
  • Danny Woodhead - call me crazy, but I have this out-of-left-field hunch that Ryan Mathews is gonna get injured this season.
  • Reggie Wayne / Mike Wallace - I've seen leagues where both these guys went behind all three Broncos' WRs. If all three of the latter outperform both of the former I'll wear a Ravens Super Bowl Champions T-shirt on my next visit to Mile High.
  • Miles Austin - when's the last time you could say that a Cowboys' skill-position player was being overlooked?
  • Martellus Bennett / Owen Daniels / Jermaine Gresham - if I can't land a top-3 TE, I'm absolutely going to wait several rounds and make sure I grab 2 of these 3 as my TEBC.
 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
Jamaal Charles. I'll be taking him at 1.01 (or anywhere after obviously) in PPR redrafts this year. Guy with his talent + outstanding offensive coaching + decent QB + WCO that features RB as a receiver + another year removed from his knee injury = look out NFL.

 

mquinnjr

Footballguy
Jamaal Charles. I'll be taking him at 1.01 (or anywhere after obviously) in PPR redrafts this year. Guy with his talent + outstanding offensive coaching + decent QB + WCO that features RB as a receiver + another year removed from his knee injury = look out NFL.
I don't doubt your conviction, and agree. To a point. How many times are leagues won by guys who go, "I'm taking (insert name) over ADP at first/second/third overall" ? He'll have his own thread, and I don't mean to derail. My point is, I'm taking can't miss if not injured players at 1.01. ADP is a potential HOF RB, best of his generation. I think we can come back to Charles after he's off the board and debate the merits of Charles at 1.02/1.03. Even in PPR.

 

tombonneau

Footballguy
I would have said Colin Kap before Crabtree injury, he still might be on my list. To me, the must-have guys I like to target are the ones being drafted in the lower tier of starters (he's QB11 in FBG rankings) with top 3 potential.

Also really like Lamar Miller. I think he ends up a RB1. As a Bush owner I watched a lot of Fish games last year, and he always impressed when he was on the field.

 

Carter_Can_Fly

Footballguy
I don't want to say it is a must have guy. But one guy that will probably end up on my team this year due to what people think of him will be Hartline. After Wallace goes far earlier than Hartline, and countless other receivers with "higher upside" are selected I will wait and snag Hartline for a modest price. Tannehill is apparently ever improving and Hartline last year at 25 years of age in his first full year as a starter put up 74 catches for 1083 yards and 1 td.

He is one guy that people just can't seem to like even though it would not surprise me to see him upping his catches, yards and td's this year. Hartline and Tannehill had a lot of chemistry last year, and with Wallace coming to stretch the field in an offense that is very capable of supporting two fantasy WR's I will happily roll the dice with him.

 
Dynasty

Cecil Shorts - Once Jacksonville lands a legit QB he will be huge, now he is still putting up huge numbers with garbage at QB.

Giovani Bernard - The Bengals are loading up on offensive talent. Possible PPR stud out of the gate.

Redraft

Chris Johnson - Seems to be a guy that people are down on after 2 years of numbers on the decline. OLine is that much better and can be had for a little cheaper than he probably should be going for.

Reggie Bush - PPR especially. The Lions offense is fantasy heaven.

 

PhantomJB

Footballguy
Larry Fitzgerald in redraft

Currently ADP at WR9 which I expect to see climb over the next few weeks. Regardless, if I had to I would select him at WR2 after Megatron with zero hesitation.

 
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kutta

Footballguy
Well, Crabtree was that guy for me, but that's changed now.

I am targeting Joe Morgan from NO late in my drafts. With Henderson and Meachem gone, I could see this guy putting up some pretty good numbers for a guy you can draft deep into the teens.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Jermichael Finley and Vick Ballard are two I am targeting this year
Agree a lot on Finley. If you miss out on the obvious studs at TE, there's a cluster of interchangeable guys in the next tier. Finley is very much part of that cluster, and is going last of the group, which makes him an ideal target for the times I miss out on Gronk.
 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
I would have said Colin Kap before Crabtree injury, he still might be on my list. To me, the must-have guys I like to target are the ones being drafted in the lower tier of starters (he's QB11 in FBG rankings) with top 3 potential. Also really like Lamar Miller. I think he ends up a RB1. As a Bush owner I watched a lot of Fish games last year, and he always impressed when he was on the field.
I like Kaep even more after Crabtree's injury. I don't think he'll perform better, but I think he'll come a lot cheaper.
 

mlball77

Footballguy
I may be in the minority, but I typically have very few (or maybe no) players that are must-haves. I have quite a few guys that I earkmark as highly likely to outperform their ADP. And, I usually end up with a bunch of those types. They aren't must-haves, but my perceived best-value picks. -If some of those guys go much earlier than their ADP suggests is likely and I miss out on them, oh well, I move on to my other best-value players.

 

Kwai Chang Caine

Footballguy
I'm guessing that I'll be taking LeSean McCoy in the first round of a lot of drafts this year.
Do you like him more than Charles and Spiller? I'm thinking I'm getting one of those three and I love the upside for Shady but it's a new scheme that no one knows how it will play out and they have two other backs. Granted, you can't have just one back and I do beige that Felix Jones may spell doom for Brown if he can't hold onto the ball. But how many games do you think Philly can win next year? If like Vegas, you think they are a 7-7 team, I can't see McCoy having a huge year. A good year but not top 5 RB.
 

EBF

Footballguy
I mainly play in dynasty leagues, so I'm a little more focused on eventual returns than immediate returns.

I grabbed Chris Harper in six of my seven leagues this offseason, so I guess he's my #1 must-have player of the moment. I like his upside as a big body possession WR playing with Russell Wilson. I think there's potential for a James Jones or even Marques Colston kind of payoff here within a year or two. You can probably get him for a 3rd or even 4th round rookie pick in a lot of leagues. I think that's a good investment.

In terms of other rookies, I have Gavin Escobar, Tyler Eifert, Stepfan Taylor, and Josh Boyce on most of my teams as well.

In terms of veterans, I've traded for Cecil Shorts, Rashard Mendenhall, and Ryan Mathews in multiple leagues this offseason. Shorts is very underrated. Had tremendous numbers last season and was very consistent. No reason to expect a dropoff this year. If he stays healthy, he will shatter his current price tag in dynasty and redraft. Mathews and Mendenhall have fallen out of fashion and shouldn't be relied on for RB1 production at this point, but both are still young enough and talented enough to leave a mark. If you can grab Mendenhall and Taylor late in your redraft league, you've got a decent chance to secure Arizona's starting RB, which could be worth solid RB2 numbers this year.

I also like Dwayne Bowe in redraft leagues. He's a good receiver and he should bounce back with a new QB and coaching staff.

 

ImTheScientist

Footballguy
I may be in the minority, but I typically have very few (or maybe no) players that are must-haves. I have quite a few guys that I earkmark as highly likely to outperform their ADP. And, I usually end up with a bunch of those types. They aren't must-haves, but my perceived best-value picks. -If some of those guys go much earlier than their ADP suggests is likely and I miss out on them, oh well, I move on to my other best-value players.
People on this site use to always talk like that, I actually use to think that way.......... Realistically though you have to reach from time to time for players you really like, if you always draft by ADP your hurting yourself. Not every draft is the same, not every league values players the same. I think the real key is to know where you are comfertable taking a player and pulling the trigger regardless of what others think.

If I really wanted Adrian Peterson last year and picked him in the 2nd round even though he had 3rd round value was it worth it? Maybe I would have waited til the 3rd round and settled for Ryan Mathews or Micheal Turner instead.

 

loose circuits

Footballguy
donkshow said:
Josh Gordon, T.Y. Hilton, Chris Ivory come to mind for me.
agree with the 1st 2, but the Ivory hype has gotten out of control. Rotoworld is declaring him a rb1. At that price, I'd likely pass. Not sure the D is good enough to support that type of game and the QB won't keep drives alive on 3rd down/catch-up duty. Not to mention Goodson or Powell handle 3rd downs and get the catches.
 
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Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
I'm guessing that I'll be taking LeSean McCoy in the first round of a lot of drafts this year.
Do you like him more than Charles and Spiller? I'm thinking I'm getting one of those three and I love the upside for Shady but it's a new scheme that no one knows how it will play out and they have two other backs. Granted, you can't have just one back and I do beige that Felix Jones may spell doom for Brown if he can't hold onto the ball.But how many games do you think Philly can win next year? If like Vegas, you think they are a 7-7 team, I can't see McCoy having a huge year. A good year but not top 5 RB.
Kelly loves to run and he loves to run a ton of plays. McCoy is excited. I'm excited. I prefer him to everyone except Peterson.

 

Borden

Footballguy
I may be in the minority, but I typically have very few (or maybe no) players that are must-haves. I have quite a few guys that I earkmark as highly likely to outperform their ADP. And, I usually end up with a bunch of those types. They aren't must-haves, but my perceived best-value picks. -If some of those guys go much earlier than their ADP suggests is likely and I miss out on them, oh well, I move on to my other best-value players.
People on this site use to always talk like that, I actually use to think that way.......... Realistically though you have to reach from time to time for players you really like, if you always draft by ADP your hurting yourself. Not every draft is the same, not every league values players the same. I think the real key is to know where you are comfertable taking a player and pulling the trigger regardless of what others think.

If I really wanted Adrian Peterson last year and picked him in the 2nd round even though he had 3rd round value was it worth it? Maybe I would have waited til the 3rd round and settled for Ryan Mathews or Micheal Turner instead.
I have to agree with this.

I'm assuming that the year Arian Foster came into the league lots of us knew about him and planned to pick him but waited too long. I know I did.

Last year though I felt guilty about taking Doug Martin in the beginning of the 3rd round but in the end it worked on well for me.

I've had way to many Arian Foster moments over the years not to have guys that I reach for.

 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
Matt Stafford, defense isn't much improved and a great pass catching back in Bush. No way his TD totals stay as low and his value has never been better

 

donkshow

Footballguy
Jermichael Finley and Vick Ballard are two I am targeting this year
Agree a lot on Finley. If you miss out on the obvious studs at TE, there's a cluster of interchangeable guys in the next tier. Finley is very much part of that cluster, and is going last of the group, which makes him an ideal target for the times I miss out on Gronk.
Before the Crabtree injury, I was going to try and go super boom/bust TEBC with Vernon and Finley. Would have been doable IMO until this injury. I'll be still trying to grab Finley as my back-up TE though.

 

HPD

Footballguy
I play mostly dynasty. Charles, David Wilson, Cordarelle Pstterson, Sam Bradford for 2014 -2020.

 

Drop

Footballguy
Even though it hasn't worked out the last 2 seasons I still think that I'll target Ben Tate or HOU RB2 because of how much I think that HOU job can shift the power in fantasy leagues.

Jermichael Finley and Brandon Pettigrew are really close to fitting the criteria for super elite TE production, but they have some issues with their games holding them back. If I can see what I'm looking for in the preseason I'll target them. I doubt it though.

The middle of the pack QB I like to breakout is Josh Freeman.

I also have this odd feeling that CJ Spiller finishes as a top 5 RB.

 

Borden

Footballguy
The middle of the pack QB I like to breakout is Josh Freeman.
I think maybe Freeman is a nice sleeper. He finished 7th in TD's and 9th in yards. However, he was also tied for the 5th most INT's. He finished tied for 25th most sacks.

 

RushHour

Footballguy
For me it's Josh Gordon, Bowe and David Wilson. I'm willing to take Vereen a bit higher than I really should too so I should mention him too.

 

DoubleG

Footballguy
I know I'm a Bear's homer, but in redraft, I'd be looking at Cutler as a QB1 if you ignore the big QB run. Many rankings have him in the mid teens or later, but I have a feeling he will sneak into the top 12, given the upgrades on the O-line and the new pass friendly, QB guru coach.

 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
In my dynasty leagues I am trying to acquire Kenny Britt wherever I can.
I like the idea! I'll add:Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Browns Defense, Cleveland's RB(s) not named Trent "oft-injured , already hurt and completely overrated" Richardson, James Jones ( the completely overlooked WR in GB who scored 14 TDs last season), Tyler Eifert ( dynasty folks), Alfred Morris ( if you can take him any earler than where he's already projected to go,that is), Brandon Myers (could be a 60+ catch TE that no one knows about)
 
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Azhais

Footballguy
Shane Vereen. If he takes on Woodheads carries he could be a startable RB2, and that's assuming he doesn't poach some from Ridley.

 

hotboyz

Footballguy
I kno this is not a reach but I think Drew Brees will be the #1 player in Fantasy Football this season!!

If I Have a chance I will draft him at 1.01 in every league!! The Safest bet in the draft! Guarantee 30 to 40 pts per wk

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
donkshow said:
Josh Gordon, T.Y. Hilton, Chris Ivory come to mind for me.
agree with the 1st 2, but the Ivory hype has gotten out of control. Rotoworld is declaring him a rb1. At that price, I'd likely pass. Not sure the D is good enough to support that type of game and the QB won't keep drives alive on 3rd down/catch-up duty. Not to mention Goodson or Powell handle 3rd downs and get the catches.
In FBG's own SSLs earlier this month (granted, before the Goodson arrest) he averaged an ADP of 103rd overall and 32nd among RBs.

If those are any indication, he's still got a looooooooong way to go before he starts getting considered an RB1 or anything close. I still think he represents excellent value, with big upside, at any price below ~RB24.

 

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