Englishteacher
Footballguy
I'm working on an average value theory VBD this weekend. RB's done. Wr's done. Te's getting started.
Here's how I've been doing it, maybe a different approach, please feel free to comment.
As an example, for the top ranked RB, I averaged the top rusher's total rushing yards from 2004, 2005, and 2006. That became RB #1's rushing yard points (divided by 10, 1 point per 10 yards). Then took the top RB TD scorer from 2004, 2005, and 2006. Multiplied by 6 and averaged. RB #1's rushing TD points. I also did the same for rec yards and rec TD's and paired them appropriately. (This is actually an erroneus way to do an average value theory for RB scoring but for my league's starting lineup requirements and scoring system it works out fine. Start 1 QB, 2RB, 2 WR, 1TE, 1 DEF/ST, 1 K. League is VERY RB heavy and has no ppr. 1 point per 10 yards rush/rec and 6 points all TD's.)
Wr's and TE's will just have rec yards and rec TD's. No rushing or passing included.
INTRO IS OVER. HERE IS THE MEAT OF THE THREAD:
Scoring for QB's: 1 point per 25 yards passing. 1 point per 25 yards rushing. Passing and rushing yards figured together. 6 points per TD pass AND run.
So my first step is to do passing yards. Take the top yardage passer in 2004, 2005, and 2006 and get an average. e.g. 4200 ('04) , 4300 ('05), 4400 ('06). 3 year average for league's top passer in yardage is 4300 yards.
Second, passing TD's. Say the last three years' top passing TD totals were 40, 42, 44. Average is 44. Multiple by 6 and you have QB #1's passing TD points.
Now it gets tricky. Even trickier than combining rushing and receiving for RB's.
If you pair QB #1 passing with QB #1 rushing, you get Peyton Manning passing and Michael Vick rushing. Those stats blow the whole value idea out of the water; especially with a 6 point per QB TD format.
I guess the whole idea behind the Average Value Theory approach is you end up with more or less normalized values in your statistics. This happens to be a keeper/quasi-dynasty league so you're looking to assign values across positions for a longer period of time instead of encountering the increased variance you'll run into in a redraft league where 1 year performances by certain players (like a 49 TD year from Peyton Manning or 13 TD catch year from TE ANtonio Gates) or anomalies from one year (say like an extraordinary amount of RBBC's) you might predict creates a much more dynamic and unique (to that year) VBD.
SO HERE'S THE IDEA i'M THINKING OF:
Rushing points are certianly more hit or miss with QB's. There may be only 6-8 QB's who run enough to influence their fantasy points scored significantly. Putting all the top rushing QB's at the top of your Avergae Value Theory cretaes the aforementioned Peyton Manning - Mike Vick combo that makes the scoring too top heavy.
Instead, I think I may tally the rushing points scored for the Top 36 QB's (you can carry 3 QB's in this league) and come up with an algebraic formula that redistributes the points throughout the QB pool.
Let's say each QB averages 200 yards rushing and 2 TD's. That's 8 points for yards and 12 points for TD's. 20 points for an average. Times 36. 720 rushing points total for the pool. Now comes the figuring out a formula to redistribute the points.
IDEA #1: Just give each QB 20 points.
IDEA #2: Use an N -1 formula and have the values trickle down so to speak. QB # 1 may have 100 points. #2 95 points. # 5 80 points. (obviously haven't figured a formula yet).
What do you guys think about ideas 1 and 2? Do you have a formula that would work for #2? Do you have an alternative suggestion?
Of course this version of Average Value Theory I've been working on is using statistics, finding a "normalcy" range for them, and then creating fantasy points and finally X Values where you can create a VBD. Perhaps most use Fantasy Points Scored from the beginning but anyways.... this is the snag I've encountered doing it this way. Combining the RB rushing and receiving was the other one but I think the way I did that is probably more reflective of true RB value than what I'm getting here trying to figure out what to do with QB rushing points when the "bigtime rushing QB's" may be more spread out in the overall QB rankings. For instance, bigtime QB rushers may be at QB#7, QB#12, 19, 26 and 31 whereas a bigtime receiving RB is still more likely to be at the top of the rankings and even if he is not it helps reflect where RB points come from (a shortyardage TD specialist like Alstott or Jacobs, a RBBC guy like Julius Jones, or a third down back like a Kevin Faulk.)
I'm going to eat the Chicken Parmesan I made for dinner and then I'll come back. Have at it, would love to here you guys discuss AVT-VBD or this particular quandry.
Here's how I've been doing it, maybe a different approach, please feel free to comment.
As an example, for the top ranked RB, I averaged the top rusher's total rushing yards from 2004, 2005, and 2006. That became RB #1's rushing yard points (divided by 10, 1 point per 10 yards). Then took the top RB TD scorer from 2004, 2005, and 2006. Multiplied by 6 and averaged. RB #1's rushing TD points. I also did the same for rec yards and rec TD's and paired them appropriately. (This is actually an erroneus way to do an average value theory for RB scoring but for my league's starting lineup requirements and scoring system it works out fine. Start 1 QB, 2RB, 2 WR, 1TE, 1 DEF/ST, 1 K. League is VERY RB heavy and has no ppr. 1 point per 10 yards rush/rec and 6 points all TD's.)
Wr's and TE's will just have rec yards and rec TD's. No rushing or passing included.
INTRO IS OVER. HERE IS THE MEAT OF THE THREAD:
Scoring for QB's: 1 point per 25 yards passing. 1 point per 25 yards rushing. Passing and rushing yards figured together. 6 points per TD pass AND run.
So my first step is to do passing yards. Take the top yardage passer in 2004, 2005, and 2006 and get an average. e.g. 4200 ('04) , 4300 ('05), 4400 ('06). 3 year average for league's top passer in yardage is 4300 yards.
Second, passing TD's. Say the last three years' top passing TD totals were 40, 42, 44. Average is 44. Multiple by 6 and you have QB #1's passing TD points.
Now it gets tricky. Even trickier than combining rushing and receiving for RB's.
If you pair QB #1 passing with QB #1 rushing, you get Peyton Manning passing and Michael Vick rushing. Those stats blow the whole value idea out of the water; especially with a 6 point per QB TD format.
I guess the whole idea behind the Average Value Theory approach is you end up with more or less normalized values in your statistics. This happens to be a keeper/quasi-dynasty league so you're looking to assign values across positions for a longer period of time instead of encountering the increased variance you'll run into in a redraft league where 1 year performances by certain players (like a 49 TD year from Peyton Manning or 13 TD catch year from TE ANtonio Gates) or anomalies from one year (say like an extraordinary amount of RBBC's) you might predict creates a much more dynamic and unique (to that year) VBD.
SO HERE'S THE IDEA i'M THINKING OF:
Rushing points are certianly more hit or miss with QB's. There may be only 6-8 QB's who run enough to influence their fantasy points scored significantly. Putting all the top rushing QB's at the top of your Avergae Value Theory cretaes the aforementioned Peyton Manning - Mike Vick combo that makes the scoring too top heavy.
Instead, I think I may tally the rushing points scored for the Top 36 QB's (you can carry 3 QB's in this league) and come up with an algebraic formula that redistributes the points throughout the QB pool.
Let's say each QB averages 200 yards rushing and 2 TD's. That's 8 points for yards and 12 points for TD's. 20 points for an average. Times 36. 720 rushing points total for the pool. Now comes the figuring out a formula to redistribute the points.
IDEA #1: Just give each QB 20 points.
IDEA #2: Use an N -1 formula and have the values trickle down so to speak. QB # 1 may have 100 points. #2 95 points. # 5 80 points. (obviously haven't figured a formula yet).
What do you guys think about ideas 1 and 2? Do you have a formula that would work for #2? Do you have an alternative suggestion?
Of course this version of Average Value Theory I've been working on is using statistics, finding a "normalcy" range for them, and then creating fantasy points and finally X Values where you can create a VBD. Perhaps most use Fantasy Points Scored from the beginning but anyways.... this is the snag I've encountered doing it this way. Combining the RB rushing and receiving was the other one but I think the way I did that is probably more reflective of true RB value than what I'm getting here trying to figure out what to do with QB rushing points when the "bigtime rushing QB's" may be more spread out in the overall QB rankings. For instance, bigtime QB rushers may be at QB#7, QB#12, 19, 26 and 31 whereas a bigtime receiving RB is still more likely to be at the top of the rankings and even if he is not it helps reflect where RB points come from (a shortyardage TD specialist like Alstott or Jacobs, a RBBC guy like Julius Jones, or a third down back like a Kevin Faulk.)
I'm going to eat the Chicken Parmesan I made for dinner and then I'll come back. Have at it, would love to here you guys discuss AVT-VBD or this particular quandry.
