Problem with Average Value Theory for Quarterbacks (1 Viewer)

[Englishteacher]

I'm working on an average value theory VBD this weekend. RB's done. Wr's done. Te's getting started.

Here's how I've been doing it, maybe a different approach, please feel free to comment.

As an example, for the top ranked RB, I averaged the top rusher's total rushing yards from 2004, 2005, and 2006. That became RB #1's rushing yard points (divided by 10, 1 point per 10 yards). Then took the top RB TD scorer from 2004, 2005, and 2006. Multiplied by 6 and averaged. RB #1's rushing TD points. I also did the same for rec yards and rec TD's and paired them appropriately. (This is actually an erroneus way to do an average value theory for RB scoring but for my league's starting lineup requirements and scoring system it works out fine. Start 1 QB, 2RB, 2 WR, 1TE, 1 DEF/ST, 1 K. League is VERY RB heavy and has no ppr. 1 point per 10 yards rush/rec and 6 points all TD's.)

Wr's and TE's will just have rec yards and rec TD's. No rushing or passing included.

INTRO IS OVER. HERE IS THE MEAT OF THE THREAD:

Scoring for QB's: 1 point per 25 yards passing. 1 point per 25 yards rushing. Passing and rushing yards figured together. 6 points per TD pass AND run.

So my first step is to do passing yards. Take the top yardage passer in 2004, 2005, and 2006 and get an average. e.g. 4200 ('04) , 4300 ('05), 4400 ('06). 3 year average for league's top passer in yardage is 4300 yards.

Second, passing TD's. Say the last three years' top passing TD totals were 40, 42, 44. Average is 44. Multiple by 6 and you have QB #1's passing TD points.

Now it gets tricky. Even trickier than combining rushing and receiving for RB's.

If you pair QB #1 passing with QB #1 rushing, you get Peyton Manning passing and Michael Vick rushing. Those stats blow the whole value idea out of the water; especially with a 6 point per QB TD format.

I guess the whole idea behind the Average Value Theory approach is you end up with more or less normalized values in your statistics. This happens to be a keeper/quasi-dynasty league so you're looking to assign values across positions for a longer period of time instead of encountering the increased variance you'll run into in a redraft league where 1 year performances by certain players (like a 49 TD year from Peyton Manning or 13 TD catch year from TE ANtonio Gates) or anomalies from one year (say like an extraordinary amount of RBBC's) you might predict creates a much more dynamic and unique (to that year) VBD.

SO HERE'S THE IDEA i'M THINKING OF:

Rushing points are certianly more hit or miss with QB's. There may be only 6-8 QB's who run enough to influence their fantasy points scored significantly. Putting all the top rushing QB's at the top of your Avergae Value Theory cretaes the aforementioned Peyton Manning - Mike Vick combo that makes the scoring too top heavy.

Instead, I think I may tally the rushing points scored for the Top 36 QB's (you can carry 3 QB's in this league) and come up with an algebraic formula that redistributes the points throughout the QB pool.

Let's say each QB averages 200 yards rushing and 2 TD's. That's 8 points for yards and 12 points for TD's. 20 points for an average. Times 36. 720 rushing points total for the pool. Now comes the figuring out a formula to redistribute the points.

IDEA #1: Just give each QB 20 points.

IDEA #2: Use an N -1 formula and have the values trickle down so to speak. QB # 1 may have 100 points. #2 95 points. # 5 80 points. (obviously haven't figured a formula yet).

What do you guys think about ideas 1 and 2? Do you have a formula that would work for #2? Do you have an alternative suggestion?

Of course this version of Average Value Theory I've been working on is using statistics, finding a "normalcy" range for them, and then creating fantasy points and finally X Values where you can create a VBD. Perhaps most use Fantasy Points Scored from the beginning but anyways.... this is the snag I've encountered doing it this way. Combining the RB rushing and receiving was the other one but I think the way I did that is probably more reflective of true RB value than what I'm getting here trying to figure out what to do with QB rushing points when the "bigtime rushing QB's" may be more spread out in the overall QB rankings. For instance, bigtime QB rushers may be at QB#7, QB#12, 19, 26 and 31 whereas a bigtime receiving RB is still more likely to be at the top of the rankings and even if he is not it helps reflect where RB points come from (a shortyardage TD specialist like Alstott or Jacobs, a RBBC guy like Julius Jones, or a third down back like a Kevin Faulk.)

I'm going to eat the Chicken Parmesan I made for dinner and then I'll come back. Have at it, would love to here you guys discuss AVT-VBD or this particular quandry.

 

[az_prof]

I'm working on an average value theory VBD this weekend. RB's done. Wr's done. Te's getting started.

Here's how I've been doing it, maybe a different approach, please feel free to comment.

As an example, for the top ranked RB, I averaged the top rusher's total rushing yards from 2004, 2005, and 2006. That became RB #1's rushing yard points (divided by 10, 1 point per 10 yards). Then took the top RB TD scorer from 2004, 2005, and 2006. Multiplied by 6 and averaged. RB #1's rushing TD points. I also did the same for rec yards and rec TD's and paired them appropriately. (This is actually an erroneus way to do an average value theory for RB scoring but for my league's starting lineup requirements and scoring system it works out fine. Start 1 QB, 2RB, 2 WR, 1TE, 1 DEF/ST, 1 K. League is VERY RB heavy and has no ppr. 1 point per 10 yards rush/rec and 6 points all TD's.)

Wr's and TE's will just have rec yards and rec TD's. No rushing or passing included.

INTRO IS OVER. HERE IS THE MEAT OF THE THREAD:

Scoring for QB's: 1 point per 25 yards passing. 1 point per 25 yards rushing. Passing and rushing yards figured together. 6 points per TD pass AND run.

So my first step is to do passing yards. Take the top yardage passer in 2004, 2005, and 2006 and get an average. e.g. 4200 ('04) , 4300 ('05), 4400 ('06). 3 year average for league's top passer in yardage is 4300 yards.

Second, passing TD's. Say the last three years' top passing TD totals were 40, 42, 44. Average is 44. Multiple by 6 and you have QB #1's passing TD points.

Now it gets tricky. Even trickier than combining rushing and receiving for RB's.

If you pair QB #1 passing with QB #1 rushing, you get Peyton Manning passing and Michael Vick rushing. Those stats blow the whole value idea out of the water; especially with a 6 point per QB TD format.

I guess the whole idea behind the Average Value Theory approach is you end up with more or less normalized values in your statistics. This happens to be a keeper/quasi-dynasty league so you're looking to assign values across positions for a longer period of time instead of encountering the increased variance you'll run into in a redraft league where 1 year performances by certain players (like a 49 TD year from Peyton Manning or 13 TD catch year from TE ANtonio Gates) or anomalies from one year (say like an extraordinary amount of RBBC's) you might predict creates a much more dynamic and unique (to that year) VBD.

SO HERE'S THE IDEA i'M THINKING OF:

Rushing points are certianly more hit or miss with QB's. There may be only 6-8 QB's who run enough to influence their fantasy points scored significantly. Putting all the top rushing QB's at the top of your Avergae Value Theory cretaes the aforementioned Peyton Manning - Mike Vick combo that makes the scoring too top heavy.

Instead, I think I may tally the rushing points scored for the Top 36 QB's (you can carry 3 QB's in this league) and come up with an algebraic formula that redistributes the points throughout the QB pool.

Let's say each QB averages 200 yards rushing and 2 TD's. That's 8 points for yards and 12 points for TD's. 20 points for an average. Times 36. 720 rushing points total for the pool. Now comes the figuring out a formula to redistribute the points.

IDEA #1: Just give each QB 20 points.

IDEA #2: Use an N -1 formula and have the values trickle down so to speak. QB # 1 may have 100 points. #2 95 points. # 5 80 points. (obviously haven't figured a formula yet).

What do you guys think about ideas 1 and 2? Do you have a formula that would work for #2? Do you have an alternative suggestion?

Of course this version of Average Value Theory I've been working on is using statistics, finding a "normalcy" range for them, and then creating fantasy points and finally X Values where you can create a VBD. Perhaps most use Fantasy Points Scored from the beginning but anyways.... this is the snag I've encountered doing it this way. Combining the RB rushing and receiving was the other one but I think the way I did that is probably more reflective of true RB value than what I'm getting here trying to figure out what to do with QB rushing points when the "bigtime rushing QB's" may be more spread out in the overall QB rankings. For instance, bigtime QB rushers may be at QB#7, QB#12, 19, 26 and 31 whereas a bigtime receiving RB is still more likely to be at the top of the rankings and even if he is not it helps reflect where RB points come from (a shortyardage TD specialist like Alstott or Jacobs, a RBBC guy like Julius Jones, or a third down back like a Kevin Faulk.)

I'm going to eat the Chicken Parmesan I made for dinner and then I'll come back. Have at it, would love to here you guys discuss AVT-VBD or this particular quandry.

Looks like you have put a lot of thought into this and you deserve some response, but its a bit too complicated for me right now after drinking beer and watching college ball all afternoon. Can you simplify this for the simple minded and drunken?

 

[Englishteacher]

I'm working on an average value theory VBD this weekend. RB's done. Wr's done. Te's getting started.

Here's how I've been doing it, maybe a different approach, please feel free to comment.

As an example, for the top ranked RB, I averaged the top rusher's total rushing yards from 2004, 2005, and 2006. That became RB #1's rushing yard points (divided by 10, 1 point per 10 yards). Then took the top RB TD scorer from 2004, 2005, and 2006. Multiplied by 6 and averaged. RB #1's rushing TD points. I also did the same for rec yards and rec TD's and paired them appropriately. (This is actually an erroneus way to do an average value theory for RB scoring but for my league's starting lineup requirements and scoring system it works out fine. Start 1 QB, 2RB, 2 WR, 1TE, 1 DEF/ST, 1 K. League is VERY RB heavy and has no ppr. 1 point per 10 yards rush/rec and 6 points all TD's.)

Wr's and TE's will just have rec yards and rec TD's. No rushing or passing included.

INTRO IS OVER. HERE IS THE MEAT OF THE THREAD:

Scoring for QB's: 1 point per 25 yards passing. 1 point per 25 yards rushing. Passing and rushing yards figured together. 6 points per TD pass AND run.

So my first step is to do passing yards. Take the top yardage passer in 2004, 2005, and 2006 and get an average. e.g. 4200 ('04) , 4300 ('05), 4400 ('06). 3 year average for league's top passer in yardage is 4300 yards.

Second, passing TD's. Say the last three years' top passing TD totals were 40, 42, 44. Average is 44. Multiple by 6 and you have QB #1's passing TD points.

Now it gets tricky. Even trickier than combining rushing and receiving for RB's.

If you pair QB #1 passing with QB #1 rushing, you get Peyton Manning passing and Michael Vick rushing. Those stats blow the whole value idea out of the water; especially with a 6 point per QB TD format.

I guess the whole idea behind the Average Value Theory approach is you end up with more or less normalized values in your statistics. This happens to be a keeper/quasi-dynasty league so you're looking to assign values across positions for a longer period of time instead of encountering the increased variance you'll run into in a redraft league where 1 year performances by certain players (like a 49 TD year from Peyton Manning or 13 TD catch year from TE ANtonio Gates) or anomalies from one year (say like an extraordinary amount of RBBC's) you might predict creates a much more dynamic and unique (to that year) VBD.

SO HERE'S THE IDEA i'M THINKING OF:

Rushing points are certianly more hit or miss with QB's. There may be only 6-8 QB's who run enough to influence their fantasy points scored significantly. Putting all the top rushing QB's at the top of your Avergae Value Theory cretaes the aforementioned Peyton Manning - Mike Vick combo that makes the scoring too top heavy.

Instead, I think I may tally the rushing points scored for the Top 36 QB's (you can carry 3 QB's in this league) and come up with an algebraic formula that redistributes the points throughout the QB pool.

Let's say each QB averages 200 yards rushing and 2 TD's. That's 8 points for yards and 12 points for TD's. 20 points for an average. Times 36. 720 rushing points total for the pool. Now comes the figuring out a formula to redistribute the points.

IDEA #1: Just give each QB 20 points.

IDEA #2: Use an N -1 formula and have the values trickle down so to speak. QB # 1 may have 100 points. #2 95 points. # 5 80 points. (obviously haven't figured a formula yet).

What do you guys think about ideas 1 and 2? Do you have a formula that would work for #2? Do you have an alternative suggestion?

Of course this version of Average Value Theory I've been working on is using statistics, finding a "normalcy" range for them, and then creating fantasy points and finally X Values where you can create a VBD. Perhaps most use Fantasy Points Scored from the beginning but anyways.... this is the snag I've encountered doing it this way. Combining the RB rushing and receiving was the other one but I think the way I did that is probably more reflective of true RB value than what I'm getting here trying to figure out what to do with QB rushing points when the "bigtime rushing QB's" may be more spread out in the overall QB rankings. For instance, bigtime QB rushers may be at QB#7, QB#12, 19, 26 and 31 whereas a bigtime receiving RB is still more likely to be at the top of the rankings and even if he is not it helps reflect where RB points come from (a shortyardage TD specialist like Alstott or Jacobs, a RBBC guy like Julius Jones, or a third down back like a Kevin Faulk.)

I'm going to eat the Chicken Parmesan I made for dinner and then I'll come back. Have at it, would love to here you guys discuss AVT-VBD or this particular quandry.

Looks like you have put a lot of thought into this and you deserve some response, but its a bit too complicated for me right now after drinking beer and watching college ball all afternoon. Can you simplify this for the simple minded and drunken?

For Qb's, I'm averaging 3 years worth of statistics for each finishing spot.Top ranked passing yard guy in 2004 threw for say 4200 yards. In 2005 say 4300. 2006 4400. 3 year average 4300.

(second ranked threw for 4000, 4050, 4100. average 4050)

Passing TD's for #1 guy in 2004, 2005, 2006 were 38, 40, 42. Average 40.

So far, the #1 QB gets 172 fantasy points (4300 yards divided by 25 - 1 point per 25 yards passing) for passing yards and 240 points (40 TD's X 6 points per TD) for passing TD's. So far, the #1 QB has 412 fantasy points. That's an AVERAGE VALUE.

But, rushing stats for QB's are not figured in yet and the #1 QB (usually Peyton Manning) is not generally a guy who also rushes for 1,000 yards (ala Mike Vick) and 10 TD's (ala Daunte Culpepper). That would give the #1 QB an additional 40 points for rushing yards and 60 points for rushing TD's the way I am assigning actual statistics to their requiste positional rankings.

The top rushing QB's are almost as likely to be ranked 24 and 31 overall as they are 4th and 8th overall.

Hence, the dilemma is how to factor in rushing points into the probably backasswards way I am going about figuring an AVERAGE VALUE for QB's.

AVERAGE VALUE THEORY MORE OR LESS STATES the #1 QB will generally have about 410 fantasy points, the #2 QB generally scores about 350 fantasy points, the # 3 QB generally about 335 points and so on and so on.

I'm sure many more people use Value Based Drafting than Average Value Theory when figuring out their draft plan but Average Value Theory can be helpful in giving a historical framework for your current predictions (I predicted the 23rd ranked RB to score 168 points this year but AVT says the 23rd ranked RB has scored on average 133 points. I may have been to optimistic here.) and for coming up with a ranking system for keeper/dynasty leagues where values and rankings for many years are important. For instance, we may see 12 TE's who are significant scorers in 2007 but history has shown an average of only 8 in most years (This could make a serious difference in where you place your baseline to ranke all of your TE's).

Try and wrap your head around that and if it doesn't work I'll try again.

 

[az_prof]

I'm working on an average value theory VBD this weekend. RB's done. Wr's done. Te's getting started.

Here's how I've been doing it, maybe a different approach, please feel free to comment.

As an example, for the top ranked RB, I averaged the top rusher's total rushing yards from 2004, 2005, and 2006. That became RB #1's rushing yard points (divided by 10, 1 point per 10 yards). Then took the top RB TD scorer from 2004, 2005, and 2006. Multiplied by 6 and averaged. RB #1's rushing TD points. I also did the same for rec yards and rec TD's and paired them appropriately. (This is actually an erroneus way to do an average value theory for RB scoring but for my league's starting lineup requirements and scoring system it works out fine. Start 1 QB, 2RB, 2 WR, 1TE, 1 DEF/ST, 1 K. League is VERY RB heavy and has no ppr. 1 point per 10 yards rush/rec and 6 points all TD's.)

Wr's and TE's will just have rec yards and rec TD's. No rushing or passing included.

INTRO IS OVER. HERE IS THE MEAT OF THE THREAD:

Scoring for QB's: 1 point per 25 yards passing. 1 point per 25 yards rushing. Passing and rushing yards figured together. 6 points per TD pass AND run.

So my first step is to do passing yards. Take the top yardage passer in 2004, 2005, and 2006 and get an average. e.g. 4200 ('04) , 4300 ('05), 4400 ('06). 3 year average for league's top passer in yardage is 4300 yards.

Second, passing TD's. Say the last three years' top passing TD totals were 40, 42, 44. Average is 44. Multiple by 6 and you have QB #1's passing TD points.

Now it gets tricky. Even trickier than combining rushing and receiving for RB's.

If you pair QB #1 passing with QB #1 rushing, you get Peyton Manning passing and Michael Vick rushing. Those stats blow the whole value idea out of the water; especially with a 6 point per QB TD format.

I guess the whole idea behind the Average Value Theory approach is you end up with more or less normalized values in your statistics. This happens to be a keeper/quasi-dynasty league so you're looking to assign values across positions for a longer period of time instead of encountering the increased variance you'll run into in a redraft league where 1 year performances by certain players (like a 49 TD year from Peyton Manning or 13 TD catch year from TE ANtonio Gates) or anomalies from one year (say like an extraordinary amount of RBBC's) you might predict creates a much more dynamic and unique (to that year) VBD.

SO HERE'S THE IDEA i'M THINKING OF:

Rushing points are certianly more hit or miss with QB's. There may be only 6-8 QB's who run enough to influence their fantasy points scored significantly. Putting all the top rushing QB's at the top of your Avergae Value Theory cretaes the aforementioned Peyton Manning - Mike Vick combo that makes the scoring too top heavy.

Instead, I think I may tally the rushing points scored for the Top 36 QB's (you can carry 3 QB's in this league) and come up with an algebraic formula that redistributes the points throughout the QB pool.

Let's say each QB averages 200 yards rushing and 2 TD's. That's 8 points for yards and 12 points for TD's. 20 points for an average. Times 36. 720 rushing points total for the pool. Now comes the figuring out a formula to redistribute the points.

IDEA #1: Just give each QB 20 points.

IDEA #2: Use an N -1 formula and have the values trickle down so to speak. QB # 1 may have 100 points. #2 95 points. # 5 80 points. (obviously haven't figured a formula yet).

What do you guys think about ideas 1 and 2? Do you have a formula that would work for #2? Do you have an alternative suggestion?

Of course this version of Average Value Theory I've been working on is using statistics, finding a "normalcy" range for them, and then creating fantasy points and finally X Values where you can create a VBD. Perhaps most use Fantasy Points Scored from the beginning but anyways.... this is the snag I've encountered doing it this way. Combining the RB rushing and receiving was the other one but I think the way I did that is probably more reflective of true RB value than what I'm getting here trying to figure out what to do with QB rushing points when the "bigtime rushing QB's" may be more spread out in the overall QB rankings. For instance, bigtime QB rushers may be at QB#7, QB#12, 19, 26 and 31 whereas a bigtime receiving RB is still more likely to be at the top of the rankings and even if he is not it helps reflect where RB points come from (a shortyardage TD specialist like Alstott or Jacobs, a RBBC guy like Julius Jones, or a third down back like a Kevin Faulk.)

I'm going to eat the Chicken Parmesan I made for dinner and then I'll come back. Have at it, would love to here you guys discuss AVT-VBD or this particular quandry.

Looks like you have put a lot of thought into this and you deserve some response, but its a bit too complicated for me right now after drinking beer and watching college ball all afternoon. Can you simplify this for the simple minded and drunken?

For Qb's, I'm averaging 3 years worth of statistics for each finishing spot.Top ranked passing yard guy in 2004 threw for say 4200 yards. In 2005 say 4300. 2006 4400. 3 year average 4300.

(second ranked threw for 4000, 4050, 4100. average 4050)

Passing TD's for #1 guy in 2004, 2005, 2006 were 38, 40, 42. Average 40.

So far, the #1 QB gets 172 fantasy points (4300 yards divided by 25 - 1 point per 25 yards passing) for passing yards and 240 points (40 TD's X 6 points per TD) for passing TD's. So far, the #1 QB has 412 fantasy points. That's an AVERAGE VALUE.

But, rushing stats for QB's are not figured in yet and the #1 QB (usually Peyton Manning) is not generally a guy who also rushes for 1,000 yards (ala Mike Vick) and 10 TD's (ala Daunte Culpepper). That would give the #1 QB an additional 40 points for rushing yards and 60 points for rushing TD's the way I am assigning actual statistics to their requiste positional rankings.

The top rushing QB's are almost as likely to be ranked 24 and 31 overall as they are 4th and 8th overall.

Hence, the dilemma is how to factor in rushing points into the probably backasswards way I am going about figuring an AVERAGE VALUE for QB's.

AVERAGE VALUE THEORY MORE OR LESS STATES the #1 QB will generally have about 410 fantasy points, the #2 QB generally scores about 350 fantasy points, the # 3 QB generally about 335 points and so on and so on.

I'm sure many more people use Value Based Drafting than Average Value Theory when figuring out their draft plan but Average Value Theory can be helpful in giving a historical framework for your current predictions (I predicted the 23rd ranked RB to score 168 points this year but AVT says the 23rd ranked RB has scored on average 133 points. I may have been to optimistic here.) and for coming up with a ranking system for keeper/dynasty leagues where values and rankings for many years are important. For instance, we may see 12 TE's who are significant scorers in 2007 but history has shown an average of only 8 in most years (This could make a serious difference in where you place your baseline to ranke all of your TE's).

Try and wrap your head around that and if it doesn't work I'll try again.

Forgive me for being dense, but the top yardage guy may not be the same as the top TD guy or the top running Qb. So why do you say the "So far, the #1 QB gets 172 fantasy points (4300 yards divided by 25 - 1 point per 25 yards passing) for passing yards and 240 points (40 TD's X 6 points per TD) for passing TD's. So far, the #1 QB has 412 fantasy points. That's an AVERAGE VALUE."And by "average value" do you mean average for the number one passing QB? Not average as in average, right? Basically, I look back at the previous three year's fantasy scoring for players myself to try and come up with an average expectation, plus I then factor in change in coaching, competition, change in other positions that affect the player, injuries, etc.

 

[moleculo]

try this: instead of calculating historical averages for rush, pass, TD, etc, and then determining projected FF points, calculate FF points for each player/year individually and then average out these numbers: QB1 scored 315, QB2 scored 300, etc. I hope that made sense.

I think you are making this more difficult than it needs to be. After all, you are interested in FF points, not QB rushing yards. Therefore, look at AVT of FF points. directly