Projected Team increased passing yardage for 2021 over 2020 Actual - CLOSED (1 Viewer)

[rzrback77]

With 17 games this upcoming season, you would anticipate all teams to be projected for more passing yards this season over 2020 production. There were actually three teams projected to have less. The listed ten teams were the ten teams with the greatest increased production. Let's see if the poll can match the projections.

 

[TS Garp]

Interesting question. I want to vote for the Ravens and I do think they'll pass more but I can see the increase being in the 400-600 range. It came down to the Jets and Giants for me and I went with the Jets. I'm a believer in LaFleur and the talent they added and I wouldn't be surprised if their increase is in the 1,000 yard range.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

went with WAS

 

[BobbyLayne]

Dallas passed for 1977 yards in the first 5 games last year. After Dak was hurt, they accumulated 2184 in their last 11 games.

Cincinnati should be another popular pick as Burrow might take the second year leap.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Cincy and Dallas seem like the obvious, or maybe safer choices in this poll simply from the fact that the two teams lost their starting QB's at some point in the season last year. For both teams there is a very clear shift away from passing after respective QB's went down. Of the two going with Cincy, worse team of the two with quite a bit of talent unknowns that, on paper, looks to be favoring more passing. It's the moonshot pick between the two.

 

[BobbyLayne]

The listed ten teams were the ten teams with the greatest increased production.

Just to clarify - are you saying the projections you were looking at showed these ten as having the greatest increased production over 2020?

 

[rzrback77]

Just to clarify - are you saying the projections you were looking at showed these ten as having the greatest increased production over 2020?

Yes, the consensus projections here ranked these ten teams as the ones with the greatest yards improvement over last season.

 

[rzrback77]

The three teams expected to pass for fewer yards than they did a year ago are San Francisco, Detroit and Buffalo, with SF declining the most and Buffalo the least.

I found these numbers fascinating.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Yes, the consensus projections here ranked these ten teams as the ones with the greatest yards improvement over last season.

Interesting. Houston kind of sticks out as "one of these things is not like the other, eh?"

Watson (at a minimum) seems unlikely to play a full season. They lost Will Fuller. Even if he plays 17 G, people think he'll surpass his career highs from last when he led the league in yards, YP/A and YP/C?

Tyrod 5K incoming I guess.

 

[ZWK]

DAL is getting Prescott back and has a great receiving corps. BAL, NYJ, and NE were at the bottom in passing yards last year and so could expect some bounceback - NE upgraded almost every spot in their receiving corps and will throw more if Jones is their QB, NYJ has a new quarterback & has added receivers, BAL was better in 2019. WAS & LAR also upgraded at QB, and WAS at WR too. CIN has a great receiving corps and a highly touted 2nd year QB, and had fairly low passing numbers last year. I was thinking DAL but then went with NE at the last second.

Hard to imagine HOU on top probably losing their QB, or GB getting the largest increase coming off an MVP season (especially with the question marks around their QB), unless there's something screwy going on with adding in the projections for their backup QBs.

 

[rzrback77]

Only 8 votes thus far, but as I expected only one team of the ten has a lead with seven getting a vote each and three with zero thus far.

 

[Biabreakable]

Interesting question.

I want to remind everyone that 2020 was a new record as far as total offense and I think a bit part of the reason for that was because of much less offensive penalties.

The reason for that no crowd noise.

So I would expect more than 3 teams to produce less than they did in 2020.

eta-

2020 396.6 points    5744.5 yards    1029.5 plays    5.6 yards per play    347.1 1st downs    89.9 penalties

2019 365.0 points    5565.8 yards    1016.1 plays    5.5 yards per play 324 1st downs 107.8 penalties

2018 373.5 points    5635.6 yards    1007.0    plays 5.6 ypp 326 1st downs 107.7 penalties

2017 347.5 points    5345.0 yards    1013.7 plays    5.3 ypp 308.1 1st downs 106.9 penalties

    
 3 year average 361 points 5515 yards 1012 plays 5.5 ypp 319 1st downs 107.5 penalties

So 2020 was an increase in all of these categories but most notably 28 more 1st downs and 18 fewer penalties

 

[IHEARTFF]

We need to go to ppg for everything since 17 > 16

 

[Biabreakable]

For this I voted for Washington seeing the most improvement in passing yards. They were 25th last season and I think Fitzmagic takes them to above average.

 

[rzrback77]

I am only going to leave this poll active through July 4th and then we will summarize the opinions here against the FBG Consensus projections for 2021.

 

[rzrback77]

Shameless bump to get more votes on this poll. Only two more days till it closes down.

 

[ratbast]

I chose the Rams. I’m high on them this year. Probably not the most but I feel they might be scary good. 

 

[rzrback77]

Final bump, the poll will be closed late tonight or Monday morning.

 

[-OZ-]

Washington seems an easy choice.

Of the teams without a QB change (whether by transactions or injury), Tennessee is likely to have the largest increase in passing yardage. Bottom ten to top ten I think.

 

[rzrback77]

For the record, the difference between the FBG Consensus projections and the actual for 2020 ranged from highest to lowest of the top ten only

1. New York Jets 1,019 yds more in 2021 - 3 votes 7.1%
   
2. Baltimore 860 yds more in 2021 - 0 votes 0%
   
3. New York Giants 792 yds more in 2021 - 1 vote 2.4%
   
4. Washington 738 yds more in 2021 - 8 votes 19.0%
   
5. Cincinnati 714 yds more in 2021 - 5 votes 11.9%
   
6. Los Angeles Rams 664 yds more in 2021 - 5 votes 11.9%
   
7. Green Bay 625 yds more in 2021 - 1 vote 2.4%
   
8. Dallas 622 yds more in 2021 - 17 votes 40.5%
   
9. New England 606 yds more in 2021 - 2 votes 4.8%
   
10. Houston was removed from consideration and received no votes
    

Thus, the Shark Pool voters generally disagreed with the consensus projections. And for the posters that wanted to see the per game increases, that is not what the original intent of the poll was, but it is provided here for the top nine teams only.

1. NY Jets 48.6 more yds ppg in 2021
   
2. Baltimore 38.6 more yds ppg in 2021
   
3. NY Giants 32.8 more yds ppg in 2021
   
4. Washington 29.6 more yds ppg in 2021
   
5. Cincinnati 28.1 more yds ppg in 2021
   
6. New England 24.5 more yds ppg in 2021
   
7. LA Rams 23.7 more yds ppg in 2021
   
8. Green Bay 21.0 more yds ppg in 2021
   
9. Dallas 20.1 more yds ppg in 2021
   

Finally, one poster also wondered about the number of teams that were projected with a decreased passing yards per game. That number turned out to be twelve teams and ranged from a drop of 0.4 ypg for Chicago to a decrease of 27.1 ypg for San Francisco. The other teams with projected decreased passing yards per game were Seattle, LA Chargers, Las Vegas, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Buffalo and Detroit, listed in order of fewer yards per game when compared to a season ago.

I am not sure how to close the poll, but if someone can guide me, I will revise it to close it out.

 

[Biabreakable]

@rzrback77 As far as I know there is no official way to close a poll and prevent people from voting in it further.

What I have been doing is just editing in the word closed to the title of the poll threads when they are completed.

This has never been a problem for me except for some years back when Todd Gurley was a rookie, I had some folks keep bumping that poll and the other polls were being overlooked because of that, even though that poll had been closed for quite some time.