projected vs. actual snap shares (2 Viewers)

[Maurile Tremblay]

These are for Week 13. My own projected snap shares compared to actual snap shares. The list includes everyone I was off on by at least 0.25, sorted with biggest whiffs at the top. In some cases, there's not much for anyone to learn. (Sauce Gardner was injured on the second defensive snap; there's no lesson here.) In other cases, if the reason for the discrepancy is more interesting, maybe I'll learn something to help me make better projections in the future. Maybe sometimes I'll be embarrassed that I missed something obvious. Either way, I'll try to share those analyses later in the week. For now, I'm just posting the raw numbers in case anyone finds them interesting. My goal is to start doing this each week (with analyses and explanations) and see if it can evolve into a worthwhile article for the main site next season.

Player Pos Team Projected Actual
Sauce Gardner CB clt 1 0.03
Justin Reid S nor 0.99 0.03
Ty Okada S sea 0 0.96
Bryan Cook S kan 0.98 0.17
Will Harris S was 0 0.79
L'Jarius Sneed CB oti 0.77 0
Justin Strnad LB den 0.77 0.03
Korie Black CB nyg 0.67 0
Rock Ya-Sin CB det 0.8 0.14
Mike Edwards S kan 0 0.64
Samuel Womack III CB oti 0.64 0
Jordan Howden S nor 0.04 0.67
D'Anthony Bell S sea 0.67 0.04
Percy Butler S was 0.6 0
Kamal Hadden CB gnb 0.59 0
Nick McCloud CB chi 0.77 0.19
Tony Adams S nyj 1 0.42
Paulson Adebo CB nyg 0.43 1
Mekhi Blackmon CB clt 0.05 0.61
Jaden Hicks S kan 0.29 0.83
Jeremy Reaves CB was 0.95 0.41
Will Johnson CB crd 0.47 1
Marcus Harris S oti 0.47 1
Xavier Woods S oti 0.39 0.92
D.J. Reed CB det 0.35 0.87
Jourdan Lewis CB jax 0.2 0.71
Kindle Vildor CB tam 0.51 0.02
Terrell Burgess S nor 0.05 0.53
Trevin Wallace LB car 0.52 1
Nate Wiggins CB rav 1 0.52
Patrick Queen LB pit 0.92 0.45
Amen Ogbongbemiga LB chi 0.99 0.52
DaVon Hamilton DT jax 0.72 0.25
Jordan Fuller S atl 0.46 0
Ernest Jones IV LB sea 0.46 0.9
Ja'Sir Taylor CB nyj 0 0.43
Christian Braswell CB jax 0.57 0.14
Greg Newsome II CB jax 0.28 0.71
James Pierre CB pit 0.94 0.51
Marcelino McCrary-Ball LB nyj 0 0.42
Bam Martin-Scott LB car 0.41 0
Tony Jefferson S sdg 0 0.4
Deonte Banks CB nyg 0.39 0
Tarheeb Still CB sdg 0.38 0.77
Jaylon Jones CB clt 0.03 0.41
Shavon Revel Jr. CB dal 0.57 0.95
Marcus Davenport DE det 0 0.38
Keisean Nixon CB gnb 0.62 1
Asante Samuel Jr CB pit 0 0.38
Kamren Kinchens S ram 0.97 0.59
Patrick Surtain II CB den 0.63 1
Eric Murray S jax 0.37 0
Rasul Douglas CB mia 0.63 1
Emmanuel Forbes Jr. CB ram 0.54 0.91
Isaiah McGuire DE cle 0.7 0.33
Trevon Diggs CB dal 0.36 0
Kris Abrams-Draine CB den 0.49 0.13
Joey Porter Jr. CB pit 0.64 1
RJ Mickens S sdg 0.79 0.44
Byron Young DT phi 0.09 0.44
Patrick O'Connell LB sea 0.38 0.04
Markquese Bell S dal 0.14 0.48
Kiko Mauigoa LB nyj 0.34 0.01
Michael Carter II CB phi 0.34 0.01
Alex Singleton LB den 0.66 0.99
Bryce Huff DE sfo 0.95 0.63
Jamel Dean CB tam 0.63 0.95
Cor'Dale Flott CB nyg 0.69 1
Jaylon Johnson CB chi 0.3 0.61
Qwan'tez Stiggers CB nyj 0.31 0
Carl Lawson DE rav 0 0.31
Malik Hooker S dal 0.86 0.55
Nick Herbig DE pit 0.7 0.39
Abdul Carter DE nyg 0.99 0.69
Sam Kamara DE cle 0 0.3
Anfernee Jennings DE nwe 0.14 0.44
Leki Fotu DT rai 0 0.3
C.J. Gardner-Johnson S chi 0.71 1
Ty'Ron Hopper LB gnb 0.56 0.27
Omar Speights LB ram 0.57 0.86
Que Robinson LB den 0 0.29
Tommy Eichenberg LB rai 0.29 0
Leonard Williams DT sea 0.85 0.56
Kei'Trel Clark CB crd 0.28 0
Garrett Williams CB crd 0.72 1
Ethan Bonner CB mia 0.28 0
Robert Spillane LB nwe 0.97 0.69
Kyle Hamilton S rav 0.72 1
Cory Durden DT nwe 0.7 0.42
Jason Marshall Jr. CB mia 0.33 0.06
Joshua Farmer DT nwe 0 0.27
Josh Wallace CB ram 0.66 0.39
Zyon McCollum CB tam 0.73 1
Bilal Nichols DT crd 0 0.26
Tyrus Wheat DE det 0.26 0
Austin Johnson DT jax 0.41 0.15
Ashtyn Davis S mia 0.7 0.96
Jeremiah Pharms Jr. DT nwe 0.39 0.13
Elijah Ponder DE nwe 0.27 0.53
Zaire Barnes LB nyg 0.52 0.78
Khalen Saunders Jr. DT nyj 0 0.26
Devin Bush LB cle 0.98 0.73
Chris Wormley DE clt 0 0.25
Dre Greenlaw LB den 0.47 0.72
Swayze Bozeman LB nyg 0.25 0
Kevin Winston Jr. S oti 0.75 1
Tanner Ingle S ram 0.25 0
DeMarcus Lawrence DE sea 0.63 0.38
Robert Beal Jr. DE sfo 0 0.25

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Dang, the extra spacing is eliminated, so the columns don't line up even with fixed-width font. I'll see if I can figure that out later.

Edit: okay, the inline code thing kind of worked.

 

[Gally]

Just to make sure I am reading the table correctly:

• A projected value of 1 = 100% of snaps
• Actual value of .03 = 3% of snaps

Essentially the values listed are percentage of snaps played.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Yes, correct.

 

[hossainanan]

These are for Week 13. My own projected snap shares compared to actual snap shares. The list includes everyone I was off on by at least 0.25, sorted with biggest whiffs at the top. In some cases, there's not much for anyone to learn. (Sauce Gardner was injured on the second defensive snap; there's no lesson here.) In other cases, if the reason for the discrepancy is more interesting, maybe I'll learn something to help me make better projections in the future. Maybe sometimes I'll be embarrassed that I missed something obvious. Either way, I'll try to share those analyses later in the week. For now, I'm just posting the raw numbers in case anyone finds them interesting. My goal is to start doing this each week (with analyses and explanations) and see if it can evolve into a worthwhile article for the main site next season.

Player Pos Team Projected Actual
Sauce Gardner CB clt 1 0.03
Justin Reid S nor 0.99 0.03
Ty Okada S sea 0 0.96
Bryan Cook S kan 0.98 0.17
Will Harris S was 0 0.79
L'Jarius Sneed CB oti 0.77 0
Justin Strnad LB den 0.77 0.03
Korie Black CB nyg 0.67 0
Rock Ya-Sin CB det 0.8 0.14
Mike Edwards S kan 0 0.64
Samuel Womack III CB oti 0.64 0
Jordan Howden S nor 0.04 0.67
D'Anthony Bell S sea 0.67 0.04
Percy Butler S was 0.6 0
Kamal Hadden CB gnb 0.59 0
Nick McCloud CB chi 0.77 0.19
Tony Adams S nyj 1 0.42
Paulson Adebo CB nyg 0.43 1
Mekhi Blackmon CB clt 0.05 0.61
Jaden Hicks S kan 0.29 0.83
Jeremy Reaves CB was 0.95 0.41
Will Johnson CB crd 0.47 1
Marcus Harris S oti 0.47 1
Xavier Woods S oti 0.39 0.92
D.J. Reed CB det 0.35 0.87
Jourdan Lewis CB jax 0.2 0.71
Kindle Vildor CB tam 0.51 0.02
Terrell Burgess S nor 0.05 0.53
Trevin Wallace LB car 0.52 1
Nate Wiggins CB rav 1 0.52
Patrick Queen LB pit 0.92 0.45
Amen Ogbongbemiga LB chi 0.99 0.52
DaVon Hamilton DT jax 0.72 0.25
Jordan Fuller S atl 0.46 0
Ernest Jones IV LB sea 0.46 0.9
Ja'Sir Taylor CB nyj 0 0.43
Christian Braswell CB jax 0.57 0.14
Greg Newsome II CB jax 0.28 0.71
James Pierre CB pit 0.94 0.51
Marcelino McCrary-Ball LB nyj 0 0.42
Bam Martin-Scott LB car 0.41 0
Tony Jefferson S sdg 0 0.4
Deonte Banks CB nyg 0.39 0
Tarheeb Still CB sdg 0.38 0.77
Jaylon Jones CB clt 0.03 0.41
Shavon Revel Jr. CB dal 0.57 0.95
Marcus Davenport DE det 0 0.38
Keisean Nixon CB gnb 0.62 1
Asante Samuel Jr CB pit 0 0.38
Kamren Kinchens S ram 0.97 0.59
Patrick Surtain II CB den 0.63 1
Eric Murray S jax 0.37 0
Rasul Douglas CB mia 0.63 1
Emmanuel Forbes Jr. CB ram 0.54 0.91
Isaiah McGuire DE cle 0.7 0.33
Trevon Diggs CB dal 0.36 0
Kris Abrams-Draine CB den 0.49 0.13
Joey Porter Jr. CB pit 0.64 1
RJ Mickens S sdg 0.79 0.44
Byron Young DT phi 0.09 0.44
Patrick O'Connell LB sea 0.38 0.04
Markquese Bell S dal 0.14 0.48
Kiko Mauigoa LB nyj 0.34 0.01
Michael Carter II CB phi 0.34 0.01
Alex Singleton LB den 0.66 0.99
Bryce Huff DE sfo 0.95 0.63
Jamel Dean CB tam 0.63 0.95
Cor'Dale Flott CB nyg 0.69 1
Jaylon Johnson CB chi 0.3 0.61
Qwan'tez Stiggers CB nyj 0.31 0
Carl Lawson DE rav 0 0.31
Malik Hooker S dal 0.86 0.55
Nick Herbig DE pit 0.7 0.39
Abdul Carter DE nyg 0.99 0.69
Sam Kamara DE cle 0 0.3
Anfernee Jennings DE nwe 0.14 0.44
Leki Fotu DT rai 0 0.3
C.J. Gardner-Johnson S chi 0.71 1
Ty'Ron Hopper LB gnb 0.56 0.27
Omar Speights LB ram 0.57 0.86
Que Robinson LB den 0 0.29
Tommy Eichenberg LB rai 0.29 0
Leonard Williams DT sea 0.85 0.56
Kei'Trel Clark CB crd 0.28 0
Garrett Williams CB crd 0.72 1
Ethan Bonner CB mia 0.28 0
Robert Spillane LB nwe 0.97 0.69
Kyle Hamilton S rav 0.72 1
Cory Durden DT nwe 0.7 0.42
Jason Marshall Jr. CB mia 0.33 0.06
Joshua Farmer DT nwe 0 0.27
Josh Wallace CB ram 0.66 0.39
Zyon McCollum CB tam 0.73 1
Bilal Nichols DT crd 0 0.26
Tyrus Wheat DE det 0.26 0
Austin Johnson DT jax 0.41 0.15
Ashtyn Davis S mia 0.7 0.96
Jeremiah Pharms Jr. DT nwe 0.39 0.13
Elijah Ponder DE nwe 0.27 0.53
Zaire Barnes LB nyg 0.52 0.78
Khalen Saunders Jr. DT nyj 0 0.26
Devin Bush LB cle 0.98 0.73
Chris Wormley DE clt 0 0.25
Dre Greenlaw LB den 0.47 0.72
Swayze Bozeman LB nyg 0.25 0
Kevin Winston Jr. S oti 0.75 1
Tanner Ingle S ram 0.25 0
DeMarcus Lawrence DE sea 0.63 0.38
Robert Beal Jr. DE sfo 0 0.25

This is great transparency. Seeing the projected vs. actual snap gaps laid out like this helps all of us understand where variance tends to come from — injuries, rotations, unexpected packages, or just coaching quirks. Doing this weekly could definitely turn into a useful resource, especially once you start adding the “why” behind each swing.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

It's easier for me to go team-by-team rather than player-by-player. Some notes:

Buffalo, Cincinnati, Houston, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Las Vegas, and San Francisco went pretty much as expected.

Atlanta: When Watts, Bates, and Bowman had all been healthy, the Falcons had been playing all three safeties extensively. With Bowman now out for the season, my guess was that Jordan Fuller would be next man up to join that rotation. Instead, the Falcons filled Bowman's spot by keeping cornerbacks Mike Hughes and A.J. Terrell on the field all game along with Dee Alford getting his normal snaps. So they shifted from three-man rotations at each position to a two-man rotation at safety with the corners picking up the slack.

Carolina: With Christian Rozeboom out, I expected Bam Martin-Scott to be the next man up based on the Week 12 rotation, but the team turned to Trevin Wallace instead. The Panthers are on bye in Week 14, and will likely get both Rozeboom and Cherelus back the following week, so it's not clear that either Martin-Scott or Wallace will have a significant role going forward.

Chicago: With the linebacker trio of Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards, and Noah Sewell all out in recent weeks (and Ruben Hyppolite II to boot), D'Marco Jackson and Amen Ogbongbemiga were left in charge, and I expected both to stay on the field pretty much all game. That ended up being true for Jackson, but Ogbongbemiga came off the field a fair amount as the Bears went heavy dime with an extra safety instead. The trio of Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Byard III, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson never left the field. Separately, with Jaylon Johnson reclaiming a place in the lineup, he ate into Nick McCloud's snaps more than I expected.

Cleveland: Sam Kamara stole about half of the snaps I was projecting for Isaiah McGuire. McGuire started at DE with Alex Wright sidelined (quad), logging 22 snaps (33%) before exiting under his own power to the medical tent. Kamara, promoted pre-game for depth, stepped in for 20 snaps (30%), contributing alongside Myles Garrett in the rotation. Probably nothing here that affects the rotation going forward, as Alex Wright should soon return to the lineup.

Indianapolis: Sauce Gardner went down on the second defensive play, and Mekhi Blackmon and Jaylon Jones got significant snaps in replacement opposite Charvarius Ward. Expect a similar rotation this week as Gardner is likely to miss time.

Arizona: I expected Kei'Trel Clark to get significant snaps in Week 13 with Max Melton out, but Will Johnson and Garrett Williams hogged all of the snaps I'd projected for Clark, never coming off the field. Going forward, expect Clark to contribute only on special teams.

Dallas: I expected Trevon Diggs to return and eat into Shavon Revel's snaps, but Diggs was never activated. A genuine error on my part. In addition, a mid-game injury to Malik Hooker caused Markquese Bell to get more playing time than usual.

Denver: At linebacker for the Broncos, Justin Strnad was effectively benched in Week 13, with Que Robinson, Dre Greenlaw, and Alex Singleton collectively picking up the slack. I didn't see this coming, but this same rotation may well persist going forward, significantly dropping Strnad's fantasy value. At corner, I wasn't sure how much playing time Patrick Surtain would get in his first game back, so I hedged by projecting Kris Abrams-Draine to give him some rest. That didn't happen, as Surtain played every snap.

Detroit: Marcus Davenport returned to action in Week 13 after being activated from IR. I thought he'd get another week before making his return, but he was eased back in with sub-package work (though he didn't play well, earning a PFF grade of 56.2). This is another error by me, as I should have projected him once he was activated. At corner, Rock Ya-Sin saw his snap share plummet as D.J. Reed's playing time ramped back up. Ya-Sin's fantasy value is wrecked going forward.

Green Bay: I wasn't sure if Keisean Nixon would get his full complement of snaps returning from his hamstring injury, so I hedged by projecting Kamal Hadden to provide some relief. Nixon played every snap.

Jacksonville: I projected safety Eric Murray to return in Week 13 but he was not activated from IR. Mistake by me. At corner, Christian Braswell's snaps were cut more than I expected upon Jourdan Lewis's return.

Kansas City: Cornerback Bryan Cook suffered an ankle injury mid-game, with Jaden Hicks and Mike Edwards picking up the slack. Cook is expected to return this week.

Miami: Cornerback Rasul Douglas returned from an ankle injury. I wasn't sure if he'd play his full complement of snaps in his first game back, so I hedged by giving Ethan Bonner and Jason Marshall Jr. some snaps in relief. But Douglas played every snap.

New Orleans: Safety Justin Reid was injured mid-game, so Terrell Burgess and Jordan Howden filled in. Reid could miss time, but Burgess and Howden don't have fantasy value as long as they act as a committee to replace Reid.

New England: DE Anfernee Jennings got more playing time than expected, but not enough to be a fantasy factor. Same with DE Elijah Ponder and DT Joshua Farmer.

NY Giants: I hedged on CB Paulson Adebo's workload in his first game back from injury, but he played every snap, relegating Korie Black and Deonte Banks to the bench. At linebacker, Zaire Barnes has ramped up significantly in recent weeks due to injuries to Darius Muasau (ankle) and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (neck). The giants are on bye this week; it's unclear whether Muasau and Flannigan-Fowles will return immediately after the bye.

NY Jets: Linebacker Marcelino McCrary-Ball got his first playing time since Week 3, which came at Kiko Mauigoa's expense. This signals a stabilized LB corps with McCrary-Ball as reliable rotational depth, limiting Mauigoa further unless injuries recur. At corner, Ja'Sir Taylor unexpectedly got significant playing time at Qwan'tez Stiggers' expense. No drama here, just trying Taylor out to see the fit, but he won't get enough snaps to have fantasy value. The Jets frequently deployed single-high safety looks with Malachi Moore as the lone safety in Week 13 against the Falcons, subbing an extra corner for Tony Adams in dime/nickel packages. This could persist going forward, killing Adams's fantasy value.

Tennessee: I projected L'Jarius Sneed to return from his quadriceps injury, but he wasn't activated. An error by me. The Titans ran heavy four-safety sub-packages (dime personnel) in Week 13 against the Jaguars due to CB injuries/depth crisis, featuring Marcus Harris, Amani Hooker, Kevin Winston, and Xavier Woods, with undrafted rookie Kendell Brooks as the lone CB and Samuel Womack III benched/released. This pattern may persist until L'Jarius Sneed returns, the timing of which remains uncertain. In the meantime Marcus Harris and Kevin Winston Jr. have legit fantasy value.

Pittsburgh: Nick Herbig's role was reduced with Alex Highsmith back in the lineup. Patrick Queen suffered a mid-game back injury, At corner, recent acquisition Asante Samuel ate into James Pierre's snaps.

LA Rams: Linebacker Omar Speights got his season high in snaps and snap share in Week 13, a trend that could persist going forward, making him a terrific acquisition if he is available. At corner, Emmanuel Forbes Jr. saw an uptick in snaps at the expense of Josh Wallace, but there's no major story here. That's just the way the sub-packages worked out with Wallace handling slot duties in nickel/dime.

Baltimore: Cornerback Nate Wiggins injured his foot mid-game, while safety Kyle Hamilton is officially back at full strength.

LA Chargers: Cornerback Tarheeb Still is back at full strength, and safety Tony Jefferson returned to the lineup and played well. Jefferson displaces some of rookie RJ Mickens's snaps.

Seattle: Linebacker DeMarcus Lawrence saw reduced playing time, but there's no story here. Just a bit of rest in a lopsided shut-out win. Linebacker Ernest Jones returned after a one-game absence and it's fair to say he was at more than full strength. D'Anthony Bell's snaps dropped from 42 (55%) in Week 12 vs. the Titans, where he filled in after Ty Okada's oblique injury amid four-safety sub-packages, to just 6 (9%) in Week 13's shutout win over the Vikings, reverting to his baseline special teams/depth role.

Tampa Bay: Cornerback Jamel Dean returned to the lineup at full strength, which sent Kindle Vildor back to his normal depth role.

Washington: Cornerback Jeremy Reaves saw his snaps drop in Week 13 as the Commanders' scheme against the Broncos favored base two-high safety. At safety, with Darnell Savage out, I expected Percy Butler to be his replacement, but I guessed wrong: it was Will Harris who filled in. Harris was listed ahead of Butler on the depth chart, so I just messed up here.

That took longer than I expected, but I think it was a good exercise.

 

[Golden Gopher]

Love this. As a participant in several IDP dynasty leagues each year, I find that I always "whiff" on at least a couple of waiver acquisitions each year, mostly due to making the fatal assumption that next week's results will likely mirror last week's results, which obviously isn't always the case. In other words, when a player pops up out of nowhere with significant fantasy production, it can often times be attributed to a drastic change in snaps (which can be injury-related or otherwise). I've found it very helpful this year in particular to really dig into the team-by-team snap counts per position when analyzing potential waivers moves. It can sometimes (not always, but many times) help distinguish between the up-and-coming player and the guy who just benefitted from someone else being inactive. More importantly, if a player comes out of nowhere with production, finding out why (who he's replacing) and using that in conjunction with the weekly inactives report can help avoid a disaster in the sense that you can get those guys back out of your lineup before it's too late.

Example.... Harrison for ATL was essentially playing LB on the field while still being classified as a DB on MFL, which gave IDP owners a bit of a "cheat code" for a week or two while he put up monster points. Unfortunately, he was on the waiver wire in many leagues and not acquired in time to take advantage of said cheat code. I looked at the situation and, even though it was pretty apparent that his production might disappear as soon as Deablo came back from IR, felt it was worth adding Harrison as a "speculative" add not knowing exactly when Deablo might return. Well, it ended up that Deablo returned sooner than I was hoping, so the speculative add of Harrison did nothing for me. BUT... I was able to avoid throwing him into my lineup (and getting next to nothing) by paying attention to 1) why he was playing and 2) when that "why" was returning (Deablo).

That's a very simple example, but the bottom line is that it can be very helpful to understand the "why" behind a lot of the week-to-week changes in snap counts by position/team. And, while I'll continue to do some of the "digging" myself, I think it's awesome that you're considering making this into some type of weekly content/article.

 

[tripp]

Depth Charts

Regularly updated NFL depth charts for NFL and fantasy football fans alike. Updates for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and all other positions.

www.footballguys.com

Some of the information to seek appears in team depth charts on the site. Harrison, for instance, appears as a reserve. Injuries happen more often than depth chart shake-ups.

Upgrades and Downgrades

A look at players moving up and down the board

www.footballguys.com

The "Upgrades and Downgrades" tool covered Harrison in Week 12 and noted that deablo was close to a return.

I hope these tools help! If they don't, I'm sure feedback would be welcome. It always is for my articles.

 

[Golden Gopher]

Depth Charts

Regularly updated NFL depth charts for NFL and fantasy football fans alike. Updates for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and all other positions.

www.footballguys.com

Some of the information to seek appears in team depth charts on the site. Harrison, for instance, appears as a reserve. Injuries happen more often than depth chart shake-ups.

Upgrades and Downgrades

A look at players moving up and down the board

www.footballguys.com

The "Upgrades and Downgrades" tool covered Harrison in Week 12 and noted that deablo was close to a return.

I hope these tools help! If they don't, I'm sure feedback would be welcome. It always is for my articles.

That's good to know as well. I'll admit I don't always read every article and probably missed that/those.

Curious to hear what you have to say about the ARI LB situation after this week. Davis-Gaither barely played yesterday and Pappoe came out of nowhere to have a decent statline (despite only playing 50%). Didn't see anything about Davis-Gaither getting hurt, so maybe ARI is just playing the younger player since their season is virtually over.... not sure. That said, I'm glad I took a zero from ADG this week (when it didn't matter) as opposed to next week (playoffs).

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Here's the list for this week. I'm in the process of writing up my comments.

Player              Pos Team Projected Actual
Marcus Epps         S   phi  0         0.97
Avonte Maddox       CB  det  0.02      0.98
Sydney Brown        S   phi  0.94      0
Thomas Harper       S   det  0.9       0.02
Dean Clark          S   nyj  0.88      0
Trent McDuffie      CB  kan  1         0.13
Bryan Cook          S   kan  0.13      1
Noah Sewell         LB  chi  0.75      0.02
Akeem Davis-Gaither LB  crd  0.7       0.01
Kyler Gordon        CB  chi  0.67      0
D'Marco Jackson     LB  chi  0.35      1
Jalon Walker        DE  atl  0.7       0.1
Travon Walker       DE  jax  0         0.54
Kyu Blu Kelly       CB  rai  0.6       0.07
Owen Pappoe         LB  crd  0         0.5
Nohl Williams       CB  kan  0.39      0.89
Jaden Hicks         S   kan  0.66      0.16
Malik Harrison      LB  pit  0.69      0.19
Patrick Queen       LB  pit  0.44      0.93
Javon Solomon       DE  buf  0.59      0.1
Micah Robinson      CB  oti  0.49      0
Kaiir Elam          CB  oti  0.48      0
Chidobe Awuzie      CB  rav  0.69      0.21
Christian Izien     S   tam  0.02      0.47
Tykee Smith         S   tam  0.98      0.53
Desjuan Johnson     DT  ram  0         0.44
Arik Armstead       DT  jax  0.66      0.23
Dante Trader Jr.    S   mia  0.06      0.48
Rock Ya-Sin         CB  det  0.15      0.57
Elijah Molden       S   sdg  0.92      0.51
Alex Wright         DE  cle  0.25      0.65
Jeremy Reaves       CB  was  0.57      0.17
Trikweze Bridges    CB  dal  0.39      0
Warren Brinson      DT  gnb  0.78      0.39
Jared Verse         DE  ram  0.85      0.47
Haason Reddick      DE  tam  0.74      0.36
James Pierre        CB  pit  0.49      0.86
Jaylon Jones        CB  clt  0.41      0.77
Taron Johnson       CB  buf  0.62      0.98
Kentavius Street    DT  atl  0.34      0.7
Darien Porter       CB  rai  0.58      0.93
Julian Love         S   sea  0.66      0.31
Asante Samuel Jr    CB  pit  0.36      0.01
Jonathan Greenard   DE  min  0.22      0.56
Troy Reeder         LB  ram  0         0.34
Brandon Graham      DE  phi  0.07      0.41
K.J. Britt          LB  mia  0         0.33
Justin Eboigbe      DT  sdg  0.5       0.17
Tonka Hemingway     DT  rai  0         0.32
Tyrel Dodson        LB  mia  0.99      0.67
Amani Hooker        S   oti  0.68      1
Will Harris         S   was  0.68      1
Chuck Clark         S   pit  0.89      0.58
Rayshawn Jenkins    S   cle  0.39      0.08
Taki Taimani        DT  min  0         0.31
Jamaree Caldwell    DT  sdg  0.63      0.32
Javon Bullard       S   gnb  0.67      0.37
Terrion Arnold      CB  det  0.3       0
Carl Lawson         DE  rav  0.3       0
Montaric Brown      CB  jax  0.64      0.94
Payton Wilson       LB  pit  0.7       0.4
Nate Wiggins        CB  rav  0.64      0.94
Coby Bryant         S   sea  0.68      0.98
Terrell Burgess     S   nor  0.56      0.27
Nick McCloud        CB  chi  0.18      0.47
Mekhi Blackmon      CB  clt  0.62      0.33
Omar Speights       LB  ram  0.74      0.45
Andrew Billings     DT  chi  0.27      0.55
T.J. Slaton Jr.     DT  cin  0.36      0.64
DeMarcus Walker     DE  was  0         0.28
Jordan Hancock      CB  buf  0.1       0.37
Eric Johnson II     DT  clt  0         0.27
Zach Allen          DT  den  0.97      0.7
Marcus Harris       S   oti  0.73      1
Kevin Winston Jr.   S   oti  0.73      1
Josh Tupou          DT  rav  0         0.27
Jacob Parrish       CB  tam  0.74      0.47
Dennis Gardeck      DE  jax  0.58      0.31
Elijah Garcia       DT  atl  0         0.26
BJ Ojulari          DE  crd  0.2       0.46
Ethan Bonner        CB  mia  0         0.26
Rasul Douglas       CB  mia  1         0.74
Jack Jones          CB  mia  1         0.74
Quincy Riley        CB  nor  0.55      0.81
Mykal Walker        LB  nyj  0.2       0.46
Josh Wallace        CB  ram  0.47      0.73
Dante Stills        DT  crd  0.43      0.69
Denzel Ward         CB  cle  0.92      0.67
Jordyn Brooks       LB  mia  0.99      0.74
Jonathan Allen      DT  min  1         0.75
Nick Emmanwori      S   sea  0.66      0.91

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Curious to hear what you have to say about the ARI LB situation after this week. Davis-Gaither barely played yesterday and Pappoe came out of nowhere to have a decent statline (despite only playing 50%). Didn't see anything about Davis-Gaither getting hurt, so maybe ARI is just playing the younger player since their season is virtually over.... not sure. That said, I'm glad I took a zero from ADG this week (when it didn't matter) as opposed to next week (playoffs).

Arizona - Akeem Davis-Gaither was benched in Week 14 as the Cardinals evaluated depth by giving Owen Pappoe his first defensive snaps of the season. The move signals a coaching decision to test Pappoe's potential, and Pappoe's strong debut may expand his role into Week 15.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Some notes...

Atlanta – Jalon Walker's reduced snaps in Week 14 (exiting after the second quarter with just a handful) were due to an in-game quad bruise, not a strategic rotation. Kentavius Street and Elijah Garcia saw additional rotational snaps.

Buffalo – The Bills used a smaller defensive lineup in Week 14 against the Bengals, with only two primary linebackers (Shaq Thompson at 100%, Matt Milano at 67%) and heavy secondary usage. This nickel/dime-heavy approach stemmed from missing LB Terrel Bernard (pectoral/shoulder), favoring speed against Cincinnati's pass-heavy offense. The shift was matchup-specific due to injuries and the Bengals' personnel, and is unlikely to persist fully once Bernard returns.

Chicago – LB Noah Sewell's limited snap count in Week 14 was primarily due to his recent elbow injury. D'Marco Jackson handled 100% of snaps as the green-dot caller. T.J. Edwards saw 33 snaps, with Amen Ogbongbemiga rotating in at the LB2 spot during the Bears' nickel-heavy scheme (just seven single-LB snaps). This rotation is likely to persist going forward. Jackson and Ogbongbemiga have proven effective, and Jackson may keep playing ahead of Sewell, though the situation remains hard to predict.

Cleveland – DE Alex Wright returned and was not eased in; he played a full workload, two snaps shy of his season high. CB Denzel Ward left early with a calf injury. His status for this week is uncertain.

Indianapolis – With CB Sauce Gardner out, Jaylon Jones got the start while Mekhi Blackmon handled sub-packages. This is the reverse of what I expected, but it has no lasting relevance as things will return to normal once Gardner is back in the lineup.

Arizona – Akeem Davis-Gaither was benched in Week 14 as the Cardinals evaluated depth by giving Owen Pappoe his first defensive snaps of the season. The move signals a coaching decision to test Pappoe's potential, and his strong debut may expand his role into Week 15.

Dallas – CB Trikweze Bridges returned to the bench as Caelen Carson returned from a hamstring injury.

Detroit – With Brian Branch out for the season due to a torn Achilles, Avonte Maddox was the primary replacement. Kerby Joseph (knee) is expected to return in Week 15 after missing time since Week 6. With Thomas Harper potentially missing more time with a concussion, the secondary rotation will likely feature Maddox starting alongside Joseph at safety.

Green Bay – With DT Devonte Wyatt on IR, Warren Brinson and Karl Brooks were in line for increased work, but Jordan Riley ate into Brinson's snaps. This reflects immediate depth management after Wyatt's injury rather than a long-term shift away from Brinson. Expect Brooks, Wooden, Brinson, and Riley to continue rotating, with Brinson potentially reclaiming more snaps as the newcomer settles.

Jacksonville – DE Travon Walker came back at full strength and ate into Dennis Gardeck's snaps. Expect this rotation to persist, with Walker prioritized over Gardeck going forward.

Kansas City – CB Trent McDuffie suffered a knee hyperextension injury in the first quarter of Week 14 against the Texans (only eight snaps played) and was ruled out for the remainder after initial evaluation. Rookie Noah Williams stepped in seamlessly for his season-high 52 snaps (74%), allowing just three receptions on his targets with a pass breakup. Week 15 status remains unclear pending imaging/swelling checks, but coach Andy Reid called it day-to-day without long-term concern. If out, expect a Williams/Watson rotation with Kristian Fulton potentially active from healthy-scratch status. Bryan Cook saw elevated snaps at safety, cutting into Jaden Hicks' role. No injury drove this; it was coaching favoring experience (Cook/Edwards) over Hicks' inconsistency.

Miami – LB Tyrel Dodson suffered a hamstring injury in the third quarter of Week 14 against the Jets, limiting him to 39 total snaps after returning late. K.J. Britt stepped in as the green-dot caller during Dodson's absence, earning more snaps than his usual special-teams/depth role (previously minimal defensive usage). If Dodson is healthy this week, expect the Brooks/Dodson duo to resume their normal workload (70–100% snaps each).

Minnesota – DE Taki Taimani, elevated from the practice squad, debuted with 16 defensive snaps. This cut into Jonathan Allen's snaps slightly, but was likely scheme-specific in a shutout win rather than a long-term shift. At defensive end, Jonathan Greenard's workload continues to ramp up as he moves further removed from his lingering shoulder injury. A fully healthy Greenard–Turner–Van Ginkel group forms a potent edge trio moving forward.

NY Jets – With Tony Adams out in Week 14 (and Andre Cisco on IR), I expected rookie Dean Clark to get snaps at safety opposite Malachi Moore. Instead, veteran Isaiah Oliver moved from his normal slot corner role to safety, with fewer DBs on the field overall as the Jets deployed heavier defensive personnel groupings against the Dolphins, opting for base defenses with an extra box defender rather than nickel or dime packages for most of the game.

Tennessee – With L'Jarius Sneed out once again, I expected Kaiir Elam and Micah Robinson to get snaps at corner opposite Darrell Baker Jr. Instead, the Titans went with a safety-heavy approach, as Marcus Harris, Amani Hooker, and Kevin Winston Jr. never came off the field, and Xavier Woods also stayed on the field most of the game. Without Sneed (on IR since Week 7, uncertain quad recovery), expect this safety-shuffled CB rotation to continue, prioritizing Harris/Baker outside and Winston in the slot.

Philadelphia – At safety, Marcus Epps was a late activation from IR and got all the snaps I had projected for Sydney Brown. Epps projects as the starter moving forward unless setbacks occur, stabilizing the secondary amid Brown's benching and Mukuba's uncertain return (on IR until at least Week 17).

Pittsburgh – After Asante Samuel Jr. ate into James Pierre's snaps at cornerback in Week 13, the Steelers returned to their normal rotation in Week 14. At linebacker, Malik Harrison suffered a concussion in the first half, which forced Patrick Queen to play 74 snaps, higher than his typical rotation share.

Las Vegas – CB Kyu Blu Kelly suffered a ruptured patellar tendon in his left knee during the first quarter, ending his season. This boosted rookie Darien Porter to 69 snaps. Porter emerges as the full-time starter opposite Stokes for Weeks 15–18.

LA Rams – Jared Verse got a season-low 29 snaps against the Cardinals. This was a deliberate rotation in a blowout win against Arizona’s heavy 12/13 personnel usage. Expect Verse to rebound to 75–90% snaps in competitive matchups. At linebacker, Omar Speights played only 25 snaps due to a lingering ankle injury that prompted rotation with veteran Troy Reeder. Expect Speights to rebound to 65–80% snaps if fully healthy in Week 15.

Seattle – In his first game back since Week 4, safety Julian Love was eased back into the rotation more slowly than expected, earning only 20 snaps. This gave Coby Bryant and Nick Emmanwori more playing time than anticipated. Love should ramp up to a 60–80% snap share by Week 16, with Emmanwori projecting for a 50–70% rotational role as the "do-everything" safety and Bryant locked in at around 90%.

Tampa Bay – DE Haason Reddick and S Tykee Smith saw reduced playing time in Week 14 due to in-game injuries. Smith's stinger allowed Christian Izien a season-high 27 snaps at strong safety.

Washington – DeMarcus Walker was added to the rotation at defensive end in Week 14, but this appears to be a one-off practice-squad elevation rather than a sign of a bigger role to come.

 

[Golden Gopher]

Does Pappoe feel like a pretty safe start this week?

 

[Gally]

Does Pappoe feel like a pretty safe start this week?

Not for me. I wouldn't risk it if I had a decent option to play instead.

 

[Golden Gopher]

Does Pappoe feel like a pretty safe start this week?

Not for me. I wouldn't risk it if I had a decent option to play instead.

Well, the good news is I just remembered I have a bye in that league, so I guess I have another week to wait, watch, and see what happens.

 

[rockaction]

Hey Maurile,

Serious kudos to you for doing this. This is probably the most transparently honest thing for so many reasons. I just shook my head and squinted. How wonderfully earnest and sincere.

Damn. Good luck, MT