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Projection question for Dodds (1 Viewer)

Judge Smails

Footballguy
How much did this week's series of events affect the projections? Was it strictly based on computer projection models, or was any weight put into the emotional aspect of the game. Didn't understand the low ranking of the TB D, and after the first play even moreso. Just sayin'.

 
and now a kickoff for a TD. I said it before, so this isn't Monday morning QBing, but I do not know how in the world TB was not a top 3 ranked defense this week at home against an emotionally wrecked Atlanta D on a short week, interim coach, inexperienced QB, hungry TB team coming off a bad loss needing the win. Or is this stuff just plugged into a computer model?

 
How is this week that much different from any other week for Atlanta? If anything, I would have bumped the Falcons offense just because they were finally out from under a terrible coach.

 
How is this week that much different from any other week for Atlanta? If anything, I would have bumped the Falcons offense just because they were finally out from under a terrible coach.
You're kidding, right? You think that team was going to be prepared and thinking about football this week? 37-3. Everyone should have expected this. Lock of the year. So mad I didn't go with my gut on this. Again, I'd like to find out if computer model is used 100% or are extenuating circumstances factored in the projections? (Weather, coach quits, short week of practice, etc.)
 
How is this week that much different from any other week for Atlanta? If anything, I would have bumped the Falcons offense just because they were finally out from under a terrible coach.
You're kidding, right? You think that team was going to be prepared and thinking about football this week? 37-3. Everyone should have expected this. Lock of the year. So mad I didn't go with my gut on this. Again, I'd like to find out if computer model is used 100% or are extenuating circumstances factored in the projections? (Weather, coach quits, short week of practice, etc.)
Tampa Bay -12.5Congrats on the thousands of dollars you surely made today.
 
and now a kickoff for a TD. I said it before, so this isn't Monday morning QBing, but I do not know how in the world TB was not a top 3 ranked defense this week at home against an emotionally wrecked Atlanta D on a short week, interim coach, inexperienced QB, hungry TB team coming off a bad loss needing the win. Or is this stuff just plugged into a computer model?
I'm not Nostradamus, and I'm not a moderator, but I think I can answer your question.If computer modeling is supposed to choose your lineups, then I'd say you should get an assistant GM that can make the tough calls for you.Also, there is a venting thread for this. No need to bump to get attention.Also, FYI - San Diego was ranked #1 in Defense this week, TB was #4 or #5. I had SD and TB and started Tampa. Got another 10 points from TB over the Chargers big defensive day. (Oh, wait... there's a bragging forum too!)You should know better than to let someone else make your picks.If you go with your gut, you'd have used TB, and taken a chance at being sick if you were wrong.If you go with someone elses gut, you get punched in the stomach, but it shouldn't hurt because it's someone else's gut.Not sure why you're complaining.
 
and now a kickoff for a TD. I said it before, so this isn't Monday morning QBing, but I do not know how in the world TB was not a top 3 ranked defense this week at home against an emotionally wrecked Atlanta D on a short week, interim coach, inexperienced QB, hungry TB team coming off a bad loss needing the win. Or is this stuff just plugged into a computer model?
I'm not Nostradamus, and I'm not a moderator, but I think I can answer your question.If computer modeling is supposed to choose your lineups, then I'd say you should get an assistant GM that can make the tough calls for you.Also, there is a venting thread for this. No need to bump to get attention.Also, FYI - San Diego was ranked #1 in Defense this week, TB was #4 or #5. I had SD and TB and started Tampa. Got another 10 points from TB over the Chargers big defensive day. (Oh, wait... there's a bragging forum too!)You should know better than to let someone else make your picks.If you go with your gut, you'd have used TB, and taken a chance at being sick if you were wrong.If you go with someone elses gut, you get punched in the stomach, but it shouldn't hurt because it's someone else's gut.Not sure why you're complaining.
You are missing my point - and you're wrong. TB was ranked 12th on the intial cheatsheets, then finally moved to 9. They were never ranked higher than that. Minn never moved off of 3. I never questioned Minn. Me, and a lot of other posters, were questioning TB, for all of the reasons mentioned above. A lot of people felt they should have been ranked much, much higher. Forget the rankings and who I picked. I make those decisions every week - have for years, some right, some wrong like everyone else and have won several big $$ Superbowls. I am simply asking HOW the rankings are ascertained, whether it's by computer model only or whether other factors, such as weather or the chaos that surrounded the Falcons this week, are considered. Simple question I hope to get an answer to for future reference.Defense San Diego Chargers - SD vs DET New England Patriots - NE vs NYJ Minnesota Vikings - MIN vs CHI Seattle Seahawks - SEA at CAR Cincinnati Bengals - CIN at SF Green Bay Packers - GB at STL Tennessee Titans - TEN at KC Indianapolis Colts - IND at OAK Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TB vs ATL
 
and now a kickoff for a TD. I said it before, so this isn't Monday morning QBing, but I do not know how in the world TB was not a top 3 ranked defense this week at home against an emotionally wrecked Atlanta D on a short week, interim coach, inexperienced QB, hungry TB team coming off a bad loss needing the win. Or is this stuff just plugged into a computer model?
I'm not Nostradamus, and I'm not a moderator, but I think I can answer your question.If computer modeling is supposed to choose your lineups, then I'd say you should get an assistant GM that can make the tough calls for you.Also, there is a venting thread for this. No need to bump to get attention.Also, FYI - San Diego was ranked #1 in Defense this week, TB was #4 or #5. I had SD and TB and started Tampa. Got another 10 points from TB over the Chargers big defensive day. (Oh, wait... there's a bragging forum too!)You should know better than to let someone else make your picks.If you go with your gut, you'd have used TB, and taken a chance at being sick if you were wrong.If you go with someone elses gut, you get punched in the stomach, but it shouldn't hurt because it's someone else's gut.Not sure why you're complaining.
You are missing my point - and you're wrong. TB was ranked 12th on the intial cheatsheets, then finally moved to 9. They were never ranked higher than that. Minn never moved off of 3. I never questioned Minn. Me, and a lot of other posters, were questioning TB, for all of the reasons mentioned above. A lot of people felt they should have been ranked much, much higher. Forget the rankings and who I picked. I make those decisions every week - have for years, some right, some wrong like everyone else and have won several big $$ Superbowls. I am simply asking HOW the rankings are ascertained, whether it's by computer model only or whether other factors, such as weather or the chaos that surrounded the Falcons this week, are considered. Simple question I hope to get an answer to for future reference.Defense San Diego Chargers - SD vs DET New England Patriots - NE vs NYJ Minnesota Vikings - MIN vs CHI Seattle Seahawks - SEA at CAR Cincinnati Bengals - CIN at SF Green Bay Packers - GB at STL Tennessee Titans - TEN at KC Indianapolis Colts - IND at OAK Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TB vs ATL
OK, fair enough retort... however, when using MY FBG rankings, from the admin page, my scoring system had TB around #4 or 5. Did you use the admin page to bring up your own in weekly projections? If not, start using that (if it's not too late), it's a much more useful tool than the weekly cheatsheet.That being said, Computer modeling requires several different variables (data) to be input. Variables must be QUANTIFIABLE, in order to be of any use in a computer model.How does a statistician quantify a sack-less coach who quits in the middle of the week. There would need to be several examples of this happening in order to quantify it's effect on a team.I don't think you'll get the answer you're looking for from a FBG computer modeling expert. I do think you are justified in questioning the defensive ranking.I went against the FBG model, which had the Chargers D at #1, and it made all the difference last week. Got lucky I guess.
 

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