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Projections for Mike Wallace as a Dolphin (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter pghrob
- Start date
That's a really tough one. New system is one thing, but no one knows how Tannehill will progress this year. It's got to be encouraging that Hartline saw 131 targets on just 484 passing attempts last year, though. There should be more passes to go around in 2013 as Tannehill takes a step or two forward.
coachbobbyfinstock
Footballguy
70 recs/1050 yds- 8 tds. My tds prediction might be a bit high though.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I think he's probably going to struggle. Roethlisberger's strengths (keep plays alive, get the ball deep downfield) were a perfect fit for him, and even with a HOF QB in a good offense he wasn't super consistent. Now he has a 2nd year QB who might or might not be any good, and is on a team that has struggled on offense and is going to be trying to integrate a bunch of new pieces this year. This team threw for only 13 TDs, total, last year.
60 - 900 - 6 would be a good effort from Mike in 2013, considering the situation.
60 - 900 - 6 would be a good effort from Mike in 2013, considering the situation.
I'm sad to see people are being so realistic on him. I was hoping he would be over-drafted this year. Agree with most of the above .... at best he'll cap out in the mid/high WR3 range. But I have a feeling a lot of people will pay WR2 prices to draft him. I think there are plenty of less-known names that will perform just as well as him, but draftable many rounds later.
I think this is about right.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
50/750/5TD...nagging injuries down here in the Florida heat will have him in and out of the line up.
I'm not high on him but I'd buy him as a WR2. I'm not sure you have your WR2 vs. WR3 values calibrated correctly. I tried to think of a middling WR3 type so I guessed Sidney Rice - turns out he finished WR30 last year with 50/748/7. Hartline finished WR35 despite only catching 1 TD. I had thought Wallace would be overdrafted, too, but from this talk, I think he'll probably be fair value.Someone else mentioned Big Ben's ability to stay alive and throw deep - I actually think this describes Tannehill pretty well. Although there's no way to have a good feeling about pinning down stats for Wallace, I think he'll finish as a low end WR2 at the worst. Keep in mind, Cecil Shorts finished WR22 with 55/979/7. Wallace is going to be a high ypc guy, too. Those could easily be his numbers next year.
not to mention running fly routes in September, he's gonna get gassed quicker.Will be interesting to see how they use him.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think he's a nice gamble, actually. I wouldn't be shocked to see him used as a more traditional WR1, getting more targets. But, as others have pointed out, I wouldn't be shocked by the situation getting the best of him and it preventing WR2 numbers.
I like him more in dynasty formats than I do for 2013.
I like him more in dynasty formats than I do for 2013.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think it was Bloom who suggested Tannahill has a stronger arm than Ben. Thoughts on that? I haven't watched enough of him to say, but was pretty surprised by the claim, as Ben can launch it.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I think Bloom is a proponent of the Johnnie Walker hypothesis for QBs.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Mike's game isn't well suited to being a WR1 in a WCO at all. He's not good in traffic, and he's not a good technical route runner. He can be a fantastic, game-breaking complementary player in the right situation, but he's never going to be a target machine.Re: his dynasty value, that will hinge on the Dolphins ability to right the ship. Personally, I am not going to bet on that happening until I see change at the top of the organization.
Blackmon was WR30 with around 65/860/5. Seems about right to me. I wouldn't pay more than a high-WR3 price for him.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
There was about a 7 game period (around and including the Super Bowl) where it looked like Wallace was a legit #1. In 2011 he caught 60% of his passes, and only 33% of his routes were deeper than 15 yards. But the Steelers went away from using him like that. I won't pretend to know why, bat at $13mil/yr, I assume the Dolphins think he can be a #1, and plan to use him as such. He'll never be a threat for 100 receptions in a season, so I agree he won't be a target machine. But I wouldn't be shocked by 80 catches, either. As I said, I think he represents a nice gamble.
I like his upside if you can get him as a WR3 like many here think he should be. I read the Dolphins as wanting to use him as a #1 and they have improved their receiving corps a good deal. It all depends on Tannehill's development though. I have heard good things about his arm strength.
cstu
Footballguy
My view as well. The Dolphins didn't give him that kind of money to be glorified Devery Henderson.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Hartline's stats last year:
131 targets, 74 catches, 1083 yards, 1 TD
I see no reason for Wallace to get fewer targets than Hartline. His catch percentage was 61% in 2010, 63% in 2011, 54% in 2012. I'm sure Steelers fans could chime in on what was different last year...but an estimate of 60% for 2013 seems decent.
Assuming Wallace gets 131 targets, has a 60% catch rate....that leads to 78 catches. He's averaged 17.2 yds per catch for his career...though only 16.6 and 13.1 the past 2 seasons. Let's just assume 15 ypc....that yields 1170 yds. I can't imagine Wallace only have 1 TD. His worst year as a pro was 2009, his rookie year, when he had 6 TDs. The Dolphins offense will be similar to Green Bay's, which should mean ample WR scoring opportunities. 6 TDs seems like a floor.
My projection: 78 catches, 1170 yds, 7-9 TDs. That would have been good for WR16 last year. Seems about right.
131 targets, 74 catches, 1083 yards, 1 TD
I see no reason for Wallace to get fewer targets than Hartline. His catch percentage was 61% in 2010, 63% in 2011, 54% in 2012. I'm sure Steelers fans could chime in on what was different last year...but an estimate of 60% for 2013 seems decent.
Assuming Wallace gets 131 targets, has a 60% catch rate....that leads to 78 catches. He's averaged 17.2 yds per catch for his career...though only 16.6 and 13.1 the past 2 seasons. Let's just assume 15 ypc....that yields 1170 yds. I can't imagine Wallace only have 1 TD. His worst year as a pro was 2009, his rookie year, when he had 6 TDs. The Dolphins offense will be similar to Green Bay's, which should mean ample WR scoring opportunities. 6 TDs seems like a floor.
My projection: 78 catches, 1170 yds, 7-9 TDs. That would have been good for WR16 last year. Seems about right.
Ace Matherton
Footballguy
With the talent they brought in, I see no chance he gets that amount of targets unless this team all the sudden becomes super pass happy. They threw 500 times, Hartline got 25% of those throws and they just resigned him, Bess had 21%. It seems pretty far fetched to think they brought all these pass catchers in with the intent of heavily using only 1 or 2. I'd say the chances of any Miami WR getting 131 targets is slim this year.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
There is a lot of room for them to increase that number. Bess and Hartline are clearly going to have their targets take major hits, especially Bess, how will be lucky to be the WR3 next season.
Nucker101
Footballguy
I'm far from a doctor but doesn't heat help relax and loosen muscles?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Other than Wallace where's all the talent they brought in - assuming you're strictly talking about the passing game?Keller and Gibson are good to adequate pass catchers.
JackReacher
Footballguy
How long are you going to run this anti-Dolphin schtick?
That stat line is best case scenario, IMO. That's his upside. He has upside to mid-WR2. Realistically, with a much worse QB and questionable offense, he's probably going to be in the WR3 range until they start clicking. Next year those numbers might be closer to his average. I just don't see it this year. It's not like they have a monster run game to take pressure off Wallace, or an amazing QB that will get him the ball perfectly right away. I could see those numbers this year if Wallace had went to the Vikings, where teams are stacking the box against AP.
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JackReacher
Footballguy
He's from New Orleans - the heat and humidity is not going to be a problem
cstu
Footballguy
I don't understand the Gibson signing (seems expensive for a #4 WR) unless they want to move Hartline to the slot to replace Bess.
Horses Mouth
Footballguy
Ace Matherton
Footballguy
Keller is a big upgrade from what they had, I just see that 131 targets as being out of reach for a guy like Wallace with the rest of the core they have. At best it is the top end of what he may do.
wodahSShadow
Footballguy
If Roethlisberger is a hall of famer, then by de facto Eli Manning is a Hall of Famer...Neither of them have ever sniffed being a top 3 QB in the league at ANY point in their careers. The only currently active QBs that have a realistic chance of being in the Hall of Fame at this point are Brees and Rodgers. Brady and P-Manning are obviously locks.
NCPanthersFan
Footballguy
Definitely a player I am going to hype in my preseason league articles in hopes it drives his value up. If he does not go early then I am fine grabbing him as a low WR2 with upside. Especially in TD length leagues. I agree - I do not see them paying all of that money. He is going to get his targets for sure.
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grateful zed
Footballguy
63/1072/5
ghostguy123
Footballguy
His production might depend on the other guys on his team. If Hartline, Keller, and Miller don't do well, Wallace will be doubled or have coverage shifted his way to take him out of the game.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Honestly, I don't follow your logic at all. Hartline isn't that talented, neither is Keller, nor is Gibson. The only receiver on that roster with above average talent (or higher) is Wallace. It wouldn't be shocking at all to see him get 25% of the targets. OR to get a slightly smaller share of a larger pie, assuming the Dolphins pass more this year.'Ace Matherton said:
Ben underthrew Wallace plenty of times during their time together, and I saw Tannehill throw in 40+ in the air flat-footed last year.
pghrob
Hail to the Chief
Was reading this interview with Big Ben of Steelers and Ben indicated that Wallace is really special.
Roethlisberger lamented the loss of wide receiver Mike Wallace to the Miami Dolphins and is keeping his fingers crossed that linebacker James Harrison doesn't wind up in the AFC North Division. "James is nasty," he said. As for Wallace? "We had great chemistry," Roethlisberger said. "I'm going to miss him as a person. As a teammate, he was a great locker-room guy. On the field, he was really something special. People don't realize how important it is to have a guy with his ability. It opens it up for other receivers. It's going to be tough for all of us."
Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/sports/ron-cook/ron-cook-big-ben-set-to-atone-for-2012-684130/#ixzz2QxI1w4oW
So Wallace lost to Roethlisberger is Tannehill's gain,right?
Advanced stats: Tannehill better fit for Mike Wallace than Big Ben By Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
March 31, 2013 12:15 pm ET
Now that he's catching passes from a second-year pro who threw more interceptions than touchdowns, rather than a two-time Super Bowl winner, what kind of production can we expect?
Advanced stats from Pro Football Focus suggest Ryan Tannehill is a great match for Wallace's skill set. Much better, in fact, when compared to Ben Roethlisberger of 2011-12.
Wallace is the NFL's top deep threat, and Tannehill was far more accurate on deep throws.
On throws targeted 20-plus yards downfield, Tannehill ranked seventh in the NFL with a 43.1 percent accuracy rate. (Drops count as accurate throws).
You can see Tannehill's accuracy on this 57-yard strike to Brian Hartline.
Roethlisberger ranked 29th, continuing his decline in that category since 2009:
2009: 53.6 percent, 2nd in NFL
2010: 46.3 percent, seventh
2011: 33.8 percent, 26th
2012: 31.9 percent, 29th
In this excellent breakdown, CBSSports.com's Pete Prisco showed two instances that should have been long Wallace touchdowns last year. Big Ben underthrew Wallace on one play and dumped it off to the fullback on the other.
Wallace does more than run go routes; he can turn short slants and screens into big plays. But his greatest strength is his ability to fly past corners.
Tannehill and Roethlisberger each threw downfield (20-plus yards) only 10.5 percent of the time last season, which ranked 26th. Joe Flacco led the NFL by throwing downfield 17.3 percent of the time.
Tannehill, a 24-year-old with a big arm, did not possess a deep threat last season. Look for his downfield attempts to skyrocket as Miami tries to take advantage of Wallace's elite speed. Wallace averaged 17.2 yards per catch in four years with Pittsburgh, scoring 32 touchdowns. He has 21 catches of 40-plus yards in the past three seasons.
Of course, Wallace must demonstrate more consistency. He admitted to a lack of focus last season, making six costly drops.
Miami surrounded Tannehill with weapons, signing Wallace, Brandon Gibson and Dustin Keller and retaining Hartline to join holdover Davone Bess.
Analysts differ on the wisdom of paying Wallace so much. He got the biggest deal in free agency.
But if Tannehill performs like he did last season, when he was accurate on 22 of 51 long throws, the Dolphins will be far more explosive. They could even get their money's worth from Wallace
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/eye-on-football/21983748/advanced-stats-tannehill-better-fit-for-mike-wallace-than-big-ben
Roethlisberger lamented the loss of wide receiver Mike Wallace to the Miami Dolphins and is keeping his fingers crossed that linebacker James Harrison doesn't wind up in the AFC North Division. "James is nasty," he said. As for Wallace? "We had great chemistry," Roethlisberger said. "I'm going to miss him as a person. As a teammate, he was a great locker-room guy. On the field, he was really something special. People don't realize how important it is to have a guy with his ability. It opens it up for other receivers. It's going to be tough for all of us."
Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/sports/ron-cook/ron-cook-big-ben-set-to-atone-for-2012-684130/#ixzz2QxI1w4oW
So Wallace lost to Roethlisberger is Tannehill's gain,right?
Advanced stats: Tannehill better fit for Mike Wallace than Big Ben By Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
March 31, 2013 12:15 pm ET
Now that he's catching passes from a second-year pro who threw more interceptions than touchdowns, rather than a two-time Super Bowl winner, what kind of production can we expect?
Advanced stats from Pro Football Focus suggest Ryan Tannehill is a great match for Wallace's skill set. Much better, in fact, when compared to Ben Roethlisberger of 2011-12.
Wallace is the NFL's top deep threat, and Tannehill was far more accurate on deep throws.
On throws targeted 20-plus yards downfield, Tannehill ranked seventh in the NFL with a 43.1 percent accuracy rate. (Drops count as accurate throws).
You can see Tannehill's accuracy on this 57-yard strike to Brian Hartline.
Roethlisberger ranked 29th, continuing his decline in that category since 2009:
2009: 53.6 percent, 2nd in NFL
2010: 46.3 percent, seventh
2011: 33.8 percent, 26th
2012: 31.9 percent, 29th
In this excellent breakdown, CBSSports.com's Pete Prisco showed two instances that should have been long Wallace touchdowns last year. Big Ben underthrew Wallace on one play and dumped it off to the fullback on the other.
Wallace does more than run go routes; he can turn short slants and screens into big plays. But his greatest strength is his ability to fly past corners.
Tannehill and Roethlisberger each threw downfield (20-plus yards) only 10.5 percent of the time last season, which ranked 26th. Joe Flacco led the NFL by throwing downfield 17.3 percent of the time.
Tannehill, a 24-year-old with a big arm, did not possess a deep threat last season. Look for his downfield attempts to skyrocket as Miami tries to take advantage of Wallace's elite speed. Wallace averaged 17.2 yards per catch in four years with Pittsburgh, scoring 32 touchdowns. He has 21 catches of 40-plus yards in the past three seasons.
Of course, Wallace must demonstrate more consistency. He admitted to a lack of focus last season, making six costly drops.
Miami surrounded Tannehill with weapons, signing Wallace, Brandon Gibson and Dustin Keller and retaining Hartline to join holdover Davone Bess.
Analysts differ on the wisdom of paying Wallace so much. He got the biggest deal in free agency.
But if Tannehill performs like he did last season, when he was accurate on 22 of 51 long throws, the Dolphins will be far more explosive. They could even get their money's worth from Wallace
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/eye-on-football/21983748/advanced-stats-tannehill-better-fit-for-mike-wallace-than-big-ben
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Mike Wallace has a lot of people angry for not performing well last year so you will hear a ton of negativity. I plan on taking advantage of that just like Fragile Fred Taylor, who so many owners claimed couldn't stay healthy early in his career and wouldn't draft him with a 10 foot pole.
Getting Wallace at low end Wr2 is good stuff. He'll like the warm weather in Miami and have even more owners angry at him come seasons end when he lives up to his ADP and they passed on him in their draft because of a down year although they knew he had the goods.
Getting Wallace at low end Wr2 is good stuff. He'll like the warm weather in Miami and have even more owners angry at him come seasons end when he lives up to his ADP and they passed on him in their draft because of a down year although they knew he had the goods.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Mike Wallace's dad says his son turned down a $76 million contract offer from the Vikings in free agency.
Wallace and his father are trying to craft a narrative that "it's not about the money." The truth is that although the Vikings might have offered a deal worth $76 million in total compensation, it's unlikely they matched the $30 million guaranteed the Dolphins ponied up. Minnesota ended up settling for Greg Jennings on a five-year, $45 million deal that included $17.8 million guaranteed.
not about the money? it also about not playing for the train-wreck that Pitt is becoming cap wise and Vikings.
Wallace and his father are trying to craft a narrative that "it's not about the money." The truth is that although the Vikings might have offered a deal worth $76 million in total compensation, it's unlikely they matched the $30 million guaranteed the Dolphins ponied up. Minnesota ended up settling for Greg Jennings on a five-year, $45 million deal that included $17.8 million guaranteed.
not about the money? it also about not playing for the train-wreck that Pitt is becoming cap wise and Vikings.
