Projections (1 Viewer)

[Redneck Philosopher]

Love the show guys. I'm new to the addiction that is fantasy football, entering just my second year, and I'm glad to have stumbled upon FBG and the Audible podcast to give me my daily football-fix....it keeps the withdrawal "shakes" to a minimum.

I've heard you all talk about where particular players "rank" against other players and rank overall based on research and studying film, but I'm curious if you also go as far as calculate projections of player stats. I've seen the projections that David Dodds et al released, and also read several posts in the SharkPool from the regulars, some of whom use mathematics and formulae that would draw envy from a NASA scientist.

Do you simply rank players based on research and film, and draft accordingly? Or do you also project stats for players at each position? (Or perhaps a hybrid approach?) I'd love to hear even a cursory discussion on this topic.

Cheers.

 

[Redneck Philosopher]

Whoops. Sorry folks. Meant to post this under the Audible Post.

Would still be interested to hear if anyone has any strong feelings one way or another.

 

[tsarc888]

I sometimes forget that this forum is accessible by non paying subscribers, it is, right? Anyways, welcome, and yes, there are projections and about a million times for information than you could ever handle. Well worth the cost of subscribing. Not even sure what it costs, I just hit renew without even looking.

 

[Biabreakable]

I would start by reading this if you haven't already: http://www.footballguys.com/bryantvbd.htm

For me projections are more useful than rankings because they allow you to apply VBD principles to your rankings thus making them stronger. Depending of course on the accuracy of your projections. This site offers some very good projections by people who know what they are doing and they have been doing projections for a pretty long time. Like 20 years or more. I think the cumulative knowledge builds on itself.

I still prefer to do my own projections because the process of doing so really teaches you a lot of things about football, the players, what has happened in the past and what that may mean for the present. Things you may not as well understand without doing the projections yourself.

ETA- updated VBD article http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm