I'm a big believer in Caleb. And Daniels, Maye and Penix. I was not so high on Rattler or Nix, but they've done fine. Every fan and coach wants their QB to be a star day 1. These are young men going up against grown adults with 5+ years experience. They are also in a position of being a leader of experienced players. It's not an easy job. They all have the skills for the job. It's the other stuff, and not all is in their control. Bad coaches, average teammates, schedules that get harder if they succeed.
We are programmed to say they are making X and were drafted at X, so they need to perform. I'ts not that easy. The number of QBs that started out awesome and didnt have a couple of down years to start their career is super small. Using a recency bias ... QBs like Brady, Manning, Aikman, Elway, Farve, Brees, Stafford and Rodgers all took time for success. Some never got it (Marino, Rivers, Ryan, etc). All were super talented.
Give these boys some time. They may turn into Mayfield, Goff, Darnold where their teams wouldn't give them enough time, good players, or smart coaches. They might also turn into Justin Fields or worse. It takes a bit of patience. It would be dumb not to have it and move to another QB when the one you need is already in your hand.
Good post. Also I think we need a little logical consistency with assessing guys once they are in the NFL. People in the JCM thread are spot on when they say "Who gives a... that Bill was a 7th round pick at this point, it doesn't matter now. The level he's playing at and the status he's earned on that team now weighs much more heavy than that." Could it factor in if he falls off suddenly, sure. But it's a small sliver in the pie chart of analyzing who is and projecting his career arc now.
Not sure why, but we seem to have a much more difficult time doing this same thing in reverse though. I refused to reassess TLaw longer than I should have on new information, at times to my teams detriments. I think Caleb is in the same vein. IDC that he was 1.01 in the NFL draft at this point. It's still a data point sure, but not nearly as relevant as it was 17 months ago. No one thinks he's going to magically be Mahomes next week, next month, or even next year. The only people I see even still suggesting that's his current bar are the people who hate him haha. It's just a strawman argument to give people something to knock down. This is without even going into the fact he wasn't really universally loved as a prospect and lots of analysts and fantasy players alike were tagging him with red flags from the start. The 1.01 is not equal year over year, and even just looking at 2024, I don't think anyone would have been that shocked if Daniels went 1.01. Maye had his fair share of supporters as well. Probably the only thing I hang my hat on about Williams being the former 1.01 is he's got plenty of leeway to grow and won't have to worry much looking over his shoulder or fearing for his job.
Really I'm just kicking myself for being down on that QB class as a whole. Might be one of my worst takes in my years of playing fantasy considering how many are looking. Even Spencer Rattler looks better to me than his record indicates, especially for a 5th round pick. And would we be surprised if Milton gets a shot and does well in the next couple years?
I think Caleb's ceiling still remains high; but what's more important is after the atrocities of last year, the information now leads us to believe he's not a full on bust. He has the capacity to improve, and is in a great situation to continue doing so. Ben Johnson with just one bye week was able to kick start that defense into gear AND establish the much, much needed running game with a guy most think is half-washed in Swift. The majority of that offensive core are rookies and 2nd year players; so he's got a few years now to continue adding in the draft and remain cap friendly. I think it's a good time to be a Bears fan.