What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

QB Derek Carr, Retired (1 Viewer)

ESPN Insider content:

Outsiders: NFL insiders overrate Derek CarrDerek Carr impressed some league insiders in his rookie season, but the numbers tell a much different story. The odds are against Carr becoming a middle-of-the-pack starter, writes Andrew Healy.
Click to expand...
Excerpt that is available if you click the link:

Mike Sando's 2015 QB Tier Rankings, in which he polled 35 NFL insiders for their opinions on the league's 32 starting quarterbacks, had theOakland Raiders' Derek Carr tied for 20th overall. That was on par withJay Cutler and ahead of Nick Foles and Sam Bradford. On the surface, it's easy to understand the optimism surrounding Carr as he enters his second season. After a slow start, he led the Raiders to three wins in their last six games. Perhaps more importantly, he seemed to show up biggest in the most important moments: His red zone performance was the best in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders metrics; his Total QBR was at its highest in the fourth quarter; and his 21/12 TD/INT ratio was better than Andrew Luck's rookie-year mark (23/18) three years ago.

So what's not to like? Carr appears to be a cautionary tale about focusing on the wrong numbers. While Carr and Luck posted almost identical rookie years by traditional passer rating (Carr 76.6, Luck 76.5), their QBRs were quite different (Carr 38.4, Luck 65.2). And forget about Carr getting better as the season progressed: During the Raiders' 3-3 stretch to end the season, he posted a minus-16.6 percent mark in Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA)metric (explained further here). That was worse than his performance during the Raiders' 0-10 start to the year (-13.8 percent).

Using the right numbers, it's clear the odds are against Carr becoming a middle-of-the-pack quarterback.

Rookie seasons are telling

There have been 18 quarterbacks drafted outside the top 10 since 2000 who threw at least 200 passes as rookies. Carr ranks ninth in this group -- right in the middle -- according to DVOA. That sounds promising until you realize that most quarterbacks drafted outside of the top 10 fail in the NFL. The ones who have succeeded were generally pretty good as rookies.
Click to expand...
 
Carr is a legitimate sleeper this season...particularly if Crabtree and Cooper step up.

Looked very good as a rookie.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Carr (until proven otherwise) falls into that bucket of QBs that have to have a great game to match what the elite QBs do consistently nearly every week. He's fine in a matchup stable or certainly 2QB league, but anybody thats relying on a second year QB that finished as QB20 as an every week starter better have a strong Plan B. IE- Carr could take some nice steps this season and still not be a viable fantasy starter.

 
Chaka said:
I really like Carr but how was that performance "shining"?
Click to expand...
Same. It is always comical to me that many writers and analysts who spin things one way or another to defend 'their' guys.

Buffalo: Matt Cassell goes 7 for 8 for 45 yards against Buffalo's number 1 defense. He is noted as not taking enough chances and not standing out.

Tyrod Taylor goes 5 for 8 for 49 yards against the 2's but rushes for 47 yards so he is the man.

Titans: Mariota goes 7 for 8 for 94 yards but throws an int and a fumble and many are writing that he stunk

Oakland: Carr 6 for 9 for 43 yards with an int and he shines.

NJY: Fitz throws 3 passes as he goes 2 for 3 for 16 yards and USA today says it was a very efficient outing for Fitz... LOL

You have to love these preseason writings and evaluations.

 
Living in Raiders country I think Carr is solid and could be a relevant fantasy starting QB someday. However, unless you play in leagues that start multiple QB's he's someone you can ignore this year.

He's going to be inconsistent and not reliable for matchup play. I would stay away.

 
Rotoworld:

Derek Carr - QB - Raiders

Coach Jack Del Rio said Derek Carr (hand) is in "good shape" to start Week 2 against the Ravens.

The Raiders are encouraged after viewing X-rays of Carr's bruised thumb on his throwing hand. The expectation is he'll practice this week and be ready for Sunday's tilt with Baltimore. He's obviously not a fantasy option against a defense that held Peyton Manning back in Week 1, even after losing pass rusher Terrell Suggs. The Ravens' defense is an elite option even with Carr in the lineup.

Source: Alex Marvez on Twitter

Sep 15 - 8:20 PM
Click to expand...
 
Faust said:
Rotoworld:

Derek Carr - QB - Raiders

Coach Jack Del Rio said Derek Carr (hand) is in "good shape" to start Week 2 against the Ravens.The Raiders are encouraged after viewing X-rays of Carr's bruised thumb on his throwing hand. The expectation is he'll practice this week and be ready for Sunday's tilt with Baltimore. He's obviously not a fantasy option against a defense that held Peyton Manning back in Week 1, even after losing pass rusher Terrell Suggs. The Ravens' defense is an elite option even with Carr in the lineup.

Source: Alex Marvez on Twitter

Sep 15 - 8:20 PM
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
raider fans should not watch this one. Going to be ugly.

 
DocHolliday said:
Faust said:
Rotoworld:

Derek Carr - QB - Raiders

Coach Jack Del Rio said Derek Carr (hand) is in "good shape" to start Week 2 against the Ravens.The Raiders are encouraged after viewing X-rays of Carr's bruised thumb on his throwing hand. The expectation is he'll practice this week and be ready for Sunday's tilt with Baltimore. He's obviously not a fantasy option against a defense that held Peyton Manning back in Week 1, even after losing pass rusher Terrell Suggs. The Ravens' defense is an elite option even with Carr in the lineup.

Source: Alex Marvez on Twitter

Sep 15 - 8:20 PM
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
raider fans should not watch this one. Going to be ugly.
Click to expand...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rXfFCY5P0w

:yes:

 
Garrett said:
DocHolliday said:
Faust said:
Rotoworld:

Derek Carr - QB - Raiders

Coach Jack Del Rio said Derek Carr (hand) is in "good shape" to start Week 2 against the Ravens.The Raiders are encouraged after viewing X-rays of Carr's bruised thumb on his throwing hand. The expectation is he'll practice this week and be ready for Sunday's tilt with Baltimore. He's obviously not a fantasy option against a defense that held Peyton Manning back in Week 1, even after losing pass rusher Terrell Suggs. The Ravens' defense is an elite option even with Carr in the lineup.

Source: Alex Marvez on Twitter

Sep 15 - 8:20 PM
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
raider fans should not watch this one. Going to be ugly.
Click to expand...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rXfFCY5P0w

:yes:
Click to expand...
Sometimes it feels so good to be wrong.

 
I think most people believed Baltimore has a good defense. Statistically at least that was a great performance. How'd he look? I'd like to see Carr break into the top 10 this year.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
I think most people believed Baltimore has a good defense. Statistically at least that was a great performance. How'd he look? I'd like to see Carr break into the top 10 this year.
Click to expand...
One thing that jumped out to me was that it really looked like Carr was looking downfield more and not just on passes he threw more than 10 yards downfield. When he took the snap it looked like his eyes were going 10-20 yards downfield before making his decision to either go with that or checking down. This is the first time that I noted that kind of aggressiveness in his play.

 
with Brees out I was looking around the waiver wire in my dynasty league for somebody and saw that Carr was dropped last week for a TE fill-in.

I've had my eye on him and liked the way he finished last season and showed a couple of nice spurts (especially at home).. With the offensive options he has, thought this would be a good guy to rely on a bit but wasn't thrilled with the matchup, especially on the road..

anyway, am obviously very happy with the results but wanted to see if somebody can give some further insight on his game

 
Rotoworld:

Derek Carr completed 20-of-33 passes for 196 yards, two touchdowns and an interception Week 4 against the Bears.


Carr made a beautifully placed throw to Amari Cooper in the back of the end zone for the first touchdown and hooked up with Roy Helu in the flat for a short score later in the second quarter. The interception was not Carr's fault. It bounced right off the chest of Latavius Murry and into the hands of Pernell McPhee. Murray fumbled a pitch later in the game. Carr played well in the loss, but he will not be a recommended option when the Broncos come to town next week.

Oct 4 - 6:10 PM
Click to expand...
 
I've been very happy with Carr's development especially as I was able to get him off waivers to start the season... i've loved the way he's progressed and having a couple of major playmakers on his side of the ball certainly helps

 
Top 5 dynasty QB?

Off the top of my head, Rodgers, Luck, Cam, Brady and Carr are my top 5. I like him better than Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson.

ETA: Top 6 maybe; forgot Roethlisberger.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Mister CIA said:
Top 5 dynasty QB?

Off the top of my head, Rodgers, Luck, Cam, Brady and Carr are my top 5. I like him better than Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson.

ETA: Top 6 maybe; forgot Roethlisberger.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I may have him 3rd in dynasty behind Luck and Rodgers. I definitely like him better than Cam and Big Ben for fantasy purposes.

 
What really should make people optimistic is that he is finally looking downfield with his passes. Today marks his third game of the season with a YPA above 9 and he is now above 7.9 YPA on the season. That is huge.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

ignatiusjreilly
Onesie (QB/TE) draft strategy, 2025
Replies
25
Views
1K
ignatiusjreilly
ignatiusjreilly
T
Travdogg's FA/1st round predictions
2
Replies
82
Views
4K
Ray_T
R
T
Travdogg's positional rankings (summer edition)
2
Replies
84
Views
7K
wgoldsph
wgoldsph

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top