I think he is there already unless there just aren't typically the bottom 8 ish QB's on the waiver and backups are rostered.
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QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
He never really never impressed me in college and I absolutely hated the pick as a Vikings fan.
Marauder
Footballguy
I'm not sure what everybody was expecting. I think he has the talent to be a good QB, but coming out of college I thought he was a project at 21 years old and less than 30 starts in a run first program. Then he had the knee injury so he was basically still a raw rookie this year. Did people really expect him to come in and play like a veteran this year? Seems like unreasonable expectations.
rockaction
Footballguy
From The Athletic:
J.J. McCarthy. How do I know EPA per dropback is a trustworthy QB stat? Peyton Manning leads all quarterbacks in that stat since 2000. Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are among the top 10.
Well, after Minnesota's McCarthy completed 12 passes for 87 yards and two interceptions in a 23-6 loss to the Packers, he now has an EPA per dropback that ranks 275th among the 282 quarterbacks to throw at least 100 passes in that era.
That's three spots below Josh Rosen, also a former No. 10 pick, who was replaced by the Cardinals after a brutal rookie year. Could McCarthy follow a similar trajectory? Mac Jones, Joe Flacco or any of the following should tempt Kevin O'Connell ...
Hey, I like that you're using statistics not normally seen that actually are, in the end, considered relevant and meaningful. But it might help those that aren't familiar with the statistic if you explained it a bit—not necessarily the nuts and bolts of how it was derived, though that isn't impossible to speak upon broadly—but that we generally aren't supposed to look at EPA as an indvidual-based statistic until there's some sort of consistent value that can't be explained away from a team perspective. People, including the good statisticians whose work matters more to the them than the notoriety of the warpath, will tell you that because of the impossibility of isolating an individual in football performance a team's expected points should not be used to judge an individual.
People should use it with massive caution for RBs or WRs or TEs. But for QBs, it's becoming increasingly common to compare QBs by isolating the result per each dropback. I don't care for it. I think unless you have a massive sample size you're picking up coaching strategy and competence, offensive line quality, receiver talent, and the unbalanced schedule as confounding factors. But I'm also not an expert. And it has a lot to do with the crossover of gambling, gambling props, and statistics that is partly responsible for the bleeding of this stat into individual assessments of talent.
I think it's fine for Manning, but not for a kid who has played six games or so. Actually, the more I write, the angrier I am at this writer. This is a misuse of the stat.
An aside: RYOE (rushing yards over expectation) is beginning to be used often and used loosely because it does help teams determine usage between their own backs—you can take certain, similar backs that you are endeavoring to run similar plays, and that's what a lot of fantasy writer's readers are concerned with so the writers give them the stat. But it's technically not, or shouldn't be, just RYOE the teams are using to do that with because RYOE is the difference of the initial figure the model thinks the back should get and what he actually got; so the teams are likely using both the back's RYOE and, more importantly (probably, this is guess by me) the original estimate of how far the back should get according to the model.
So it's not just RYOE, which uses the back's ****AND THIS IS KEY***** own MPH and acceleration (measured by chips in the player's shoulder pads that give their location at every tenth of second) to calculate his expected distance. They calculate that speed, in addition to where his blockers are (they disappear at handoff in the model) and where his pursuers are and how fast they are going at the exact moment he gets the handoff, and therefore, the whole stat (if used to compare backs on different teams) is totally meaningless and should absolutely not be used for cross-team comparison.
eta* this is edited to try and convey it with brevity and clarity, but that is being lost the more I edit this post for total transparency and accuracy. You guys should get with this and look at it before all the quant kids are winning all the leagues and feeling all the pride, sowing their fantasy oats, and making a living cashing quant checks (do they still use the big ones for photo-ops?) while Troy Aikman still spits the word "analytics" out on national television like he ate the part without the "ytics" and just realized what exactly was in his mouth.
eta2* And I'm realizing that this might sound condemnatory but it's so far from that. Keep bringing good discussions and patience (you have more than I do) and you'll have people reading facts and then opinions in short work.
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GreenNGold
Footballguy
I think most of the blame is with the team, not JJM. When the team is a QB away from being legit superbowl contenders, people expect the team to stick with a veteran (Darnold/Rodgers/other) and go for it. The team choosing to turn it over to JJM raised expectations for him, right or not, and now they have prematurely closed their window and went from great to terrible really fast. Personally, I hope the team sticks with JJM!
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Let's not forget this kid is only 22 years old. His story is far, far from being fully written
FairWarning
Footballguy
True but he was very average in college.
rockaction
Footballguy
This is a really good point. And the fan base is starved for a title and knows this might be their year, so the discourse around the QB is hysterical and nobody is measured or reasoned. And then throw in that there is a weird Twitter contingent that mentioned his race (did he ever say anything about white power or what the **** are we doing here, boys?) during his eval or to recap it, and I wonder if insisting on bringing this to the fore even when not prompted about racial dynamics by anything serves any purpose but to piss everybody off; and we've got a perfect 2020s storm.
I've hated this decade spiritually, intellectually, and emotionally like none before and it's not due to aging. I didn't care for the mid-to-late eighties and it was mos def the zeitgeist. I should have been happy from 12-16, and everything sort of sucked and then lifted around '92 and I was like, "Okay the jingoistic thoughtless garbage is over, but whoa fellas getting all inward and doing heroin over sterno cans might be too much making up for lost time here."
Anyway, those are the two periods of my consciousness that sucked the most and this one from 2015 has lapped it something fierce. A digression. This decade has been poison. We can't even get a football eval.
eta* oh, and if you think shutting up and ignoring stuff like this is either a) manly, and the other way too whiny, or, b) the best way to proceed, then I simply ask you how well that worked for the people in '68 both in response to left and right, and then recently when kowtowing to identity grievances all the same (both left and right) like we're above it all and it will all go away worked. I'd love to hear about the efficacy of silence when you have people—who are probably good people—and are knowledgeable about football seeing things through this filter. Silence and let it grow like a melanoma until it's Stage Four or complain like this in public/private and be firm but polite about it public. But speak up.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think everybody was expecting him to not be one of the worst starting QBs in the last decade. I think everybody was expecting him to not be Anthony Richardson without the legs.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Raised expectations? It would be one thing if he we playing average or above average but not quite to the level of the legend Sam Darnold.
But when you're playing worse than Justin Fields or Anthony Richardson as a passer when you're a pocket quarterback, a little panic isn't due to raised expectations. It could have been the Browns picking 1st overall and this performance would still be alarming.
habsfan
Footballguy
They gave him the job and sent all the other applicants home.
Either he looked completely qualified for the job and has since turned into a pumpkin or the staff got this really wrong. Those things aren't mutually exclusive either.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Max Brosmer if you can believe that. Stay far away from Vikings players.
More than usual?!
JohnnyU
Footballguy
No, just the usual, shaken but not stirred.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Thanks. Benching Jefferson which truly saddens me.
Would it be crazy to pick up McCarthy for the fantasy playoffs if you've only got a mid-tier QB starting now? He faces the three teams giving up the most fantasy points to QBs this season - @ DAL, @ NYG, vs DET. I know McCarthy isn't very good...and might actually be bad...but his playoff schedule could not be any better.
Gatorade
Footballguy
Not sure who your starter is now, but chances are I would pick up his backup before taking a chance on McCarthy. Dallas D has improved a lot. NYG have a good pass rush and Detroit should be still fighting for a playoff spot.
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
Who is your current option? And, does your league penalize for INT's?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I seriously doubt McCarthy is their starting QB in 2026.
I wasn't trying to turn this into a WDIS, so I wasn't going to ask about my team specifically. But I've got Goff and Love. 1 pt/25 yards, 6 pts/TD, -2 pts/INT. For Goff, I'm not sure how long St. Brown will be out. Plus he faces two tough pass D's in weeks 15 (@ LAR) and 17 (@ MIN). The Packers' pass game is supremely inconsistent, and Love could throw for 0 TD's any given week. He also faces a tough pass D in week 15 (@ DEN).Who is your current option? And, does your league penalize for INT's?
McCarthy's matchups are amazing, but I guess it doesn't matter if he's terrible!
There has to be someone better than JJM on waivers if you are thinking of going away from Goff/Love. There has to be. The only guy I would put JJM over in the hierarchy of QB's at the moment is Brosmer.
I wasn't trying to turn this into a WDIS, so I wasn't going to ask about my team specifically. But I've got Goff and Love. 1 pt/25 yards, 6 pts/TD, -2 pts/INT. For Goff, I'm not sure how long St. Brown will be out. Plus he faces two tough pass D's in weeks 15 (@ LAR) and 17 (@ MIN). The Packers' pass game is supremely inconsistent, and Love could throw for 0 TD's any given week. He also faces a tough pass D in week 15 (@ DEN).Who is your current option? And, does your league penalize for INT's?
McCarthy's matchups are amazing, but I guess it doesn't matter if he's terrible!
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Condolences.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Come on, his QBR is below "Spike's"... any QB (not on the Vikings) is a better option.
zamboni
Footballguy
More like wrecking.
Seems like JJM has 5 more games to make a case to avoid being thrust into a highly drafted backup role in 2026.
Footballdaz
Footballguy
Can't believe I'm saying this,but glad to have him back after last weeks disaster.
Hoping time off gave him confidence.
Hoping time off gave him confidence.
need2know
Footballguy
wanna bet
need2know
Footballguy
next year will be better bro
The Frankman
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Why on earth would it be? Dude, the best minds covering football are wondering the same thing. How about instead of a laugh emoji you say something of substance. And before you attack me or JohnnyU, lay your case out for the reader or the reader will know you have nothing.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Why on earth would it be? Dude, the best minds covering football are wondering the same thing. How about instead of a laugh emoji you say something of substance. And before you attack me or JohnnyU, lay your case out for the reader or the reader will know you have nothing.
So you’re seriously suggesting that MIN will cast aside a 1st round QB because he hasn’t been awesome 7 games into his career?
Don’t talk down to me when you’re supporting nonsense like this. I don’t see you going after Johnny U for posting it without your required explanation in the first place.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Oddly enough after this discussion I started him strictly on matchup in a superflex. On the same team I still benched Jefferson, who as an ex-Tiger I just hold at this point in redraft because he’s one of my favorite players. It probably helps JJM FF wise that the run game is pretty mediocre. He also didn’t throw the ball to Aaron Jones (ok per the box score, once). But again I’ll hold him. Ya never know.
And the Vikes aren’t going to move on from him. If anything end of season they will likely try to give him maximum opportunity to succeed. I also saw somewhere a local fan say that the Vikes had revamped the gameplan for him somewhat.
Dizzy
Footballguy
He just had his best game as a pro. Yeah, nobody is reaching for the gold jacket (again), but his responsibilities differ from yours.
His job is to hit the open guy. Jefferson is bracketed and generally has the most attention of anyone by the defense. If JJM is hitting open guys and getting first downs and TD's then it doesn't matter whether or not he throws it to Jefferson. JJM played well yesterday even if it was against a Washington team that has given up.
zamboni
Footballguy
Wasn’t serious about this happening, but yet he now has DAL, NYG and DET left for the fantasy playoffs.
fightingillini
Footballguy
Sorry that JJM is going to cost you 2K. Remember that NFL players don't care about your fantasy team. JJM played well yesterday and the Vikings won. I don't think that JJM is going to think...."damn, I should have forced it to Jefferson more often". He spread it around to 5 different receivers. And MIN isn't throwing the ball that much. It's different from previous years.
Jefferson had risk going into the draft this year. Anytime you have a new QB, there is risk, even if you are as talented as Jefferson is. He has been a big bust this year. Busts happen every year. Saquon has been a bust. Brian Thomas Jr has been a bust. You make it sound like Jefferson should be an automatic top 3 WR. Doesn't work that way.
He is still a rookie QB that will have another clunker or two remaining. I wouldn't be surprised if this is his best showing for the rest of the year by a long ways. All that to say, I wouldn't be confident rolling him out in a must win playoff game at this point in the season regardless of the favorable matchup on paper.Wasn’t serious about this happening, but yet he now has DAL, NYG and DET left for the fantasy playoffs.
hankmurphy
Footballguy
Serious loser vibes in this post.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Dizzy
Footballguy
Fully with you. Degenerate gamblers are the worst.
steelcityman
Footballguy
sounds like a you problem.
