TampaMike19
Footballguy
Tough game on the road against that D but good lord Sam Howell lol. I am disappointed in his fantasy ceiling this year though so far.
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QB Josh Allen, BUF (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Faust
MVP
.@JoshAllenQB was making some insane throws on Sunday.(via @NextGenStats)
jerry jones
Footballguy
I got a guy in my league offering me Josh Allen for Mattison whose my 5th back. I have Hurts as my QB 1
Josh seems to be struggling…make the deal?
Josh seems to be struggling…make the deal?
Wrigley
Footballguy
Or alternatively, they could keep Allen, and flip Hurts for more than Mattison.
Faust
MVP
Next Gen Stats
Josh Allen completed a career-high +14.2% of his passes over expected, recording a 69.0% success rate (2nd-highest of career).
Allen Targeting Vertical Routes
Weeks 1-3: 7/20, 127 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT
#MIAvsBUF | #BillsMafia
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Embarrassed the dolphins
For 6 straight years. Even when his passing wasn't good the first 2 years, Allen terrorized Miami on the ground.
Faust
MVP
Josh Allen currently leads the NFL in attempts (33), completions (18), yards (282), touchdowns (5), and expected points added (+17.6) on pass plays when scrambling to his right this season.
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
Thought he was great last night. Wasn’t forcing it. Spread it around. Only turnover was on a ball tipped at the line.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
His mistakes have been GLARING
But he has also been very very unlucky.
From PFF
Turnover worthy play percentage in 2023-Justin Herbert 3.3%-
Patrick Mahomes 3.3%-
Jalen Hurts 3.2%-
Lamar Jackson 3.0%-
Tua Tagovailoa 2.6%-
CJ Stroud 2.4%-
Josh Allen 2.4%-
Joe Burrow 2.2%
But he has also been very very unlucky.
From PFF
Turnover worthy play percentage in 2023-Justin Herbert 3.3%-
Patrick Mahomes 3.3%-
Jalen Hurts 3.2%-
Lamar Jackson 3.0%-
Tua Tagovailoa 2.6%-
CJ Stroud 2.4%-
Josh Allen 2.4%-
Joe Burrow 2.2%
markrc99
Footballguy
I watched the game & feel that each of the turnovers were more about a lack of execution & easily correctable. Default scoring @nfl.com Allen provided owners with something over 14pts. Take away the unforced errors & he scores 20+pts on a bad night. Back the other way, they weren't in the right play frequently enough & Ken Dorsey was the one blamed. To fire him immediately afterwards seems a precipitous move. Knowing his response, should owners consider it irrelevant that McDermott was asked whether the move was his decision? .... The organization has known for some time that they need to improve their short game, balance.
Allen has been the least lucky QB I've seen in a long time. Seemingly every tipped ball or bad bounce, or whatever has gone against the Bills this season.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I don’t watch every game, but it seems like he has forced a lot of deep throws….
He's had some bad decisions, but unlike most QBs, he's had no luck whatsoever. Every bad decision has cost them, and that's not what usually happens. Of Allen's 11 INT's, I'd say about 5 have been his fault (including the one before halftime against Denver) but he's had several that should have been catches that ended up being INT's and no dropped INTs, which typically happens almost half the time a ball hits a defender's hands.
There are some examples of QBs who have had incredible luck this year (Stroud, Cousins pre-injury) and nobody more so than Baker Mayfield, and conversely, I'd say besides Allen, guys like Stafford and believe it or not Jordan Love, have had really bad luck.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Not trying to hijack the thread, its Allen, but Kincaid is a teammate, but what cost would you be willing to pay for Kincaid in a dynasty league? I have a ton of RBs(Breece, Izzy, Saquon, Jav Williams, J Cook, Herbert, Mitchell, Allgeier) and want Kincaid for future. I offered a guy Saquon and Njoku, he rejected. He needs/wants Saquon tho.
What would you all want to trade away Kincaid?
He wont ever counter, so I am just guessing at this point. I have all my rookie/FA picks next year, and extra 3rd and 7th.
I got Olave, Nacua and Flowers as my WRs I dont want to trade. Ridley, Doubs, Douglas, could be moved.
Love and Levis qb depth I have.
What would you all want to trade away Kincaid?
He wont ever counter, so I am just guessing at this point. I have all my rookie/FA picks next year, and extra 3rd and 7th.
I got Olave, Nacua and Flowers as my WRs I dont want to trade. Ridley, Doubs, Douglas, could be moved.
Love and Levis qb depth I have.
TommyKramer9
Footballguy
Benching Josh for Stroud this week. Probably the only time I'll bench him the rest of the year. That Jets D is tough and he did poorly against them earlier in the year, plus Stroud has a cushy matchup against AZ
So I went back and watched every Josh Allen throw this season, and drew a conclusion on how he played, vs his stats, for each game since week 1.
Week 1 Jets-Allen's worst game of the season. His numbers are an accurate representation of how he played that week. Nobody other than Diggs ever got open.
Week 2 Raiders-Allen played as well as his numbers say, and his supporting cast pulled their weight, especially Gabe Davis.
Week 3 Commanders-Allen played better than his numbers. Diggs played great, but Davis and Knox had some awful drops.
Week 4 Dolphins-Allen played as well as his numbers say. Entire offense was in sync and playing well.
Week 5 Jaguars-Despite much of it being in comeback mode, I'd say Allen was as good as his numbers. Bad games for Cook and the TEs. Seemed like there were communication issues, especially with Knox.
Week 6 Giants-Allen was better than his numbers here, and his INT was not his fault at all. Diggs was the only guy getting open at all. More miscommunication issues with Knox.
Week 7 Patriots-Pretty much what his numbers suggest. Patriots D did a very good job covering Diggs and Davis. Allen probably forced too many throws to Diggs, as the middle with Kincaid/Knox/Shakir was wide open all day.
Week 8 Bucs-Allen played well, and this was mostly a great game by the supporting cast. Shakir especially was open all game. INT was on Kincaid.
Week 9 Bengals-Allen played WAY better than his stats show. They just never really had the ball. Probably should have targeted Diggs more, as D had zero answers for him.
Week 10 Broncos-Allen played better (not good, but not awful) than his numbers show. A horrific game from his supporting cast, nobody got open consistently. My biggest critique of Allen upon rewatch of this game, is he should have run more often, which was also the case I think in the Jets and Patriots games as well. Definitely seems to be overthinking whether to take off at times, and none more evident than this game.
My overall takeaway is, Allen isn't playing any worse as a passer than he has in other seasons, he's getting a little less help from his supporting cast and they've scaled back his rushing a lot, which is to the offense's detriment, I think. I think its very possible an OC switch fixes what is really a pretty small problem, which to me is Allen overthinking, specifically about when to run and when to throw. I think other than the Jets/Broncos games he's been good to elite all season. I'd like to see Khalil Shakir much more prominently involved, possibly at Gabe Davis expense. The offense seems to run better in 3-wide than the 2-TE stuff, especially as Knox wasn't playing all that well even before he got hurt. Its possible less shotgun and more PA/running would help, but this should still 100% be a pass 1st team, Allen is BY FAR their best player, and lessoning his impact on the game is only gonna hurt the offense.
Week 1 Jets-Allen's worst game of the season. His numbers are an accurate representation of how he played that week. Nobody other than Diggs ever got open.
Week 2 Raiders-Allen played as well as his numbers say, and his supporting cast pulled their weight, especially Gabe Davis.
Week 3 Commanders-Allen played better than his numbers. Diggs played great, but Davis and Knox had some awful drops.
Week 4 Dolphins-Allen played as well as his numbers say. Entire offense was in sync and playing well.
Week 5 Jaguars-Despite much of it being in comeback mode, I'd say Allen was as good as his numbers. Bad games for Cook and the TEs. Seemed like there were communication issues, especially with Knox.
Week 6 Giants-Allen was better than his numbers here, and his INT was not his fault at all. Diggs was the only guy getting open at all. More miscommunication issues with Knox.
Week 7 Patriots-Pretty much what his numbers suggest. Patriots D did a very good job covering Diggs and Davis. Allen probably forced too many throws to Diggs, as the middle with Kincaid/Knox/Shakir was wide open all day.
Week 8 Bucs-Allen played well, and this was mostly a great game by the supporting cast. Shakir especially was open all game. INT was on Kincaid.
Week 9 Bengals-Allen played WAY better than his stats show. They just never really had the ball. Probably should have targeted Diggs more, as D had zero answers for him.
Week 10 Broncos-Allen played better (not good, but not awful) than his numbers show. A horrific game from his supporting cast, nobody got open consistently. My biggest critique of Allen upon rewatch of this game, is he should have run more often, which was also the case I think in the Jets and Patriots games as well. Definitely seems to be overthinking whether to take off at times, and none more evident than this game.
My overall takeaway is, Allen isn't playing any worse as a passer than he has in other seasons, he's getting a little less help from his supporting cast and they've scaled back his rushing a lot, which is to the offense's detriment, I think. I think its very possible an OC switch fixes what is really a pretty small problem, which to me is Allen overthinking, specifically about when to run and when to throw. I think other than the Jets/Broncos games he's been good to elite all season. I'd like to see Khalil Shakir much more prominently involved, possibly at Gabe Davis expense. The offense seems to run better in 3-wide than the 2-TE stuff, especially as Knox wasn't playing all that well even before he got hurt. Its possible less shotgun and more PA/running would help, but this should still 100% be a pass 1st team, Allen is BY FAR their best player, and lessoning his impact on the game is only gonna hurt the offense.
markrc99
Footballguy
I've read that Joe Brady was the passing game coordinator @LSU, oversaw Donk going from 16 TD passes to 60. Though still in his early 30s, hired by Carolina to be their OC. Again, I don't know but read that he was fired because they didn't run the ball enough.
The url below is a breakdown of a handful of plays in the Denver game by Kurt Warner. To me the one that stands out is the INT just before the half. This play appears at about 8:50 into the video. To the top of the screen is a 3-WR bunch & the outer most WR is the one targeted. Note the 9yd cushion the DB is affording this WR. With the snap of the ball, he's immediately into his (DB) backpedal. For me, what's lacking are the pre/post snap adjustments. Running routes into the teeth of the coverage isn't winning football. Eyeing only the DB you'll notice that he doesn't take one false step. Watch Allen, it's hard to establish that he considers anything else & beyond belief, late with the throw. I agree with everything Warner says but this is the wrong thing that they're in & easily discernible on the pre snap... often, a check with me as they say, if they run what they're showing, break your route off at about the 30yd line. Point being, breakdowns that are easily correctable, the effective timeframe to do so, less than an hour.
Was Firing Ken Dorsey The Right Move? | Kurt Warner x QB Confidential
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zamboni
Footballguy
I'm sure there are a myriad of factors going on behind Allen's recent struggles, and his injury is probably one of them. Another factor IMO that may be affecting the offense's production/efficiency most of the season is the bolded. Heading into the season, McDermott indicated they they wanted Allen to run less to keep him healthier, and they have pretty much stuck to their word on it. The problem though seems to be that the offense has become more one-dimensional, especially given the focus on the passing game where the defense can pin its ears back a bit more knowing that Allen probably won't run as much but also is not big on checking down either. Just theorizing, but it might have some merit.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
This stat is absolutely gross. 17 times in his career Allen has tied or given the Bills the lead in the final two minutes.
They have lost 9 of those games.
Three times this season he gave them the lead under two minutes and lost. Once he tied the game and lost in OT.
Just ridiculous results that showcase a complete breakdown in end of game defence and coaching.
They have lost 9 of those games.
Three times this season he gave them the lead under two minutes and lost. Once he tied the game and lost in OT.
Just ridiculous results that showcase a complete breakdown in end of game defence and coaching.
I will maintain that if you switch Allen with ANY QB in the NFL, the Bills are less successful than they have been. He's 80s Elway with the amount of carrying the team on his back.
I would argue tooth and nail, that he's the best player in the NFL and has been for a couple years now. If he had Andy Reid or Sean McVay or some other coach who actually puts his QB in good situations, we'd already be calling him a HOFer.
zamboni
Footballguy
He gets a lot of flak for his turnovers and hero ball mentality, but not enough for him carrying his team when needed most. It's the defense that doesn't shoulder enough of the blame for the team's late game failures.
massraider
Footballguy
0-6 in overtime games. That's an unpleasant stat.
TommyKramer9
Footballguy
Still not his fault. Without Josh Allen the Bills would probably have 2 or 3 wins. He's put them in a position to win more than they have. Last week they had a 3 point lead in regulation and then Philadelphia kicks a 59 yarder to tie it. If Bills D stops them they win. Then in OT he leads them to a go ahead FG which could have been a game winning TD if Gabe Davis ran the right route, and then the Bills D gives up a TD to Philadelphia to lose. Josh Allen had them in position to win that game twice and the rest of the team let him down.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
What? "If Gabe Davis ran the right route"? It was an option route. The problem was Josh Allen threw the ball too soon, if he waits and identifies which way Davis breaks it's a TD. Instead, he rushed the throw when he didn't need to, he could have held it another split second, but he got antsy in the pocket.
massraider
Footballguy
To be clear, Allen is a stud. I am not making an argument he's not a franchise QB.
To me, the discussion is whether he is a special, clutch, wins the game kind of guy. Or if he's Matthew Stafford/Kirk Cousins with wheels.
Elway didn't stop making dumb throws his whole career. But he had the 'special' to pull it off late in the game.
Guys like Allen and others (Oh heeeey Justin Herbert) are not so good they are beyond questioning.
TommyKramer9
Footballguy
Good point, but for the record as a Vikings fan I'd take him any day to lead my real football team.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I've always wondered what percentage of those turnovers were also basically "arm punts", where he's going deep on 3rd down and gets intercepted within 15 yards of the goal line. It feels like a good amount of them are. They don't differentiate on the stat sheet, but realistically from a real game perspective, they really don't hurt the team like an early down pick/pick on your half of the field/pick six. I would agree that at least part of his turnovers are due to the spot the team puts him in and what they ask him to do. And really... outside of fantasy, I don't view the aforementioned interceptions that negatively. I'd rather a QB who goes for the win and pushes the ball down field and gets some interceptions, than a dink and dunker who doesn't throw any but also never gets you in a spot to win the games.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Allen's problems are from McDermott who simply can't coach a football team. Once Daboll left it was straight to the crapper for the Bills. I dont think McDermott knows a single thing , his coaches seem incompetent I think the entire coaching staff is gone at the end of the season - week 18 to be more precise.
Dan Quinn or one of these guys will be the next HC.
Dan Quinn or one of these guys will be the next HC.
Faust
MVP
Next Gen Stats
Josh Allen was 0.2 yards from the sideline when he released the ball on his 22-yard pass to Latavius Murray, the closest distance to the sideline of any completion since 2018.
Completions within 1 yard of sideline:
#BUFvsKC | #BillsMafia
The Duff Man
Footballguy
In other news….a QB threw an incompletion
cdclopper
Footballguy
Some incompletions are more egregious than others. Like the one here, Gabe is running wide open for an easy TD. The Bills had been setting up this play the entire game so you know they had been practicing it during the week. Yet Allen still misses it, throwing to Kincaid instead who was not open.
TommyKramer9
Footballguy
That was terrible on Josh's part. He didn't even glance at Davis. Easy TD if he does
Faust
MVP
Next Gen Stats
Josh Allen was blitzed on half of his dropbacks against the Chargers (11 of 22), his second consecutive game with a blitz rate of 50%+, his two highest rates in a game this season.
#BUFvsLAC | #BillsMafia
Faust
MVP
Next Gen Stats
Josh Allen completed 9 of 10 play action passes for 167 yards & 2 TD in the Bills' division-clinching victory over the Dolphins.
Allen recorded his two-highest games by CPOE this season against the Dolphins.
#BUFvsMIA | #BillsMafia
Faust
MVP
Next Gen Stats
Josh Allen & Dalton Kincaid (29-yd TD)
Allen (Today): 6/6, 85 yards & 2 TD targeting slot/tight (0/2 wide); 6th career deep TD in the postseason (fewer than only Tom Brady's 9 in the NGS era).
#PITvsBUF | #BillsMafia
Josh Allen (52-yd TD run)
Allen reached his fastest speed as a ball carrier of the season, gained the most RYOE by a QB, and gained the most yards on a QB scramble of 2023.
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