What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (3 Viewers)

Per Rotoworld

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports x-rays were negative on Justin Herbert’s ankle.
This is good news for Herbert, who limped off the field in the third quarter of Sunday’s loss to the Steelers and didn’t return to the field. Head coach Jim Harbaugh said after the game that the plan was to pull Herbert if he saw him limping during the game. Herbert was also spotted in a boot after the game, but said he didn’t think he did further damage to his ankle by playing on it. We’ll see where things go from here as the Chargers prepare for a Week 4 matchup against the Chiefs. If Herbert is unable to go, journeyman Taylor Heinicke would likely draw the start after replacing Herbert on Sunday.
 
Pip's Invitation said:
Kiddnets said:
wow what a fall from grace - he looked like an upper echelon young QB slinging it everywhere to an often hurt game manager who barely finishes games. Bummer
Click to expand...
In my Superflex auction league he traditionally went for more than $40. This year he didn't top $10.
Click to expand...
And those of us who drafted him in SuperFlex thought we were getting a deal.

My cheap QB room of Stafford, Herbert, Watson and Dalton is not looking so hot but I spent money elsewhere so just need a few of these guys to put up decent numbers weekly.
 
Not much discussion about Herbert after his MNF performance, perhaps because he didn't throw any TDs despite throwing the ball an eye-opening
39 times with 349 passing yards.

Hard to say whether the pass heavy script was by design based on the matchup, or perhaps because the run game wasn't working, but was a pleasant surprise considering how much of a low volume passing offense it has been.

I doubt that Harbaugh/Roman are going to change their stripes and have Justin air it out like he used to, but definitely going to watch the next game vs. the Saints very carefully to see how the offensive balance goes.
 
zamboni said:
Not much discussion about Herbert after his MNF performance, perhaps because he didn't throw any TDs despite throwing the ball an eye-opening
39 times with 349 passing yards.

Hard to say whether the pass heavy script was by design based on the matchup, or perhaps because the run game wasn't working, but was a pleasant surprise considering how much of a low volume passing offense it has been.

I doubt that Harbaugh/Roman are going to change their stripes and have Justin air it out like he used to, but definitely going to watch the next game vs. the Saints very carefully to see how the offensive balance goes.
Click to expand...
I’ve been holding as a Superflex owner waiting for a resurgence in the second half.

I didn’t get to watch the game, but that stat line is great. Needs to put a couple in the endzone in these coming weeks. I did see Reagor close to scoring fumble bumble one through the endzone.

They really need a true #1 WR and red zone threat. and I don’t think we are going to get that this year, so he’s gonna have to work with what he’s got.

Chargers should trade for Kupp! :armchair fantasy GM:
 
The arrow seems to be pointing up on Herbert’s fantasy prospects. While it’s a long way from the pass happy days of old, he’s thrown the ball over 30 times each of the last three weeks (maybe because Dobbins is slowing down), playing at a high level, and elevating the receivers around him. Can’t wait until they build an offense around him.
 
zamboni said:
The arrow seems to be pointing up on Herbert’s fantasy prospects. While it’s a long way from the pass happy days of old, he’s thrown the ball over 30 times each of the last three weeks (maybe because Dobbins is slowing down), playing at a high level, and elevating the receivers around him. Can’t wait until they build an offense around him.
Click to expand...
Suddenly my trio of Herbert, Stafford and Nix looks pretty good in Superflex.

Things change quickly. These three combined for zero TDs last week.

This week they combined for 10.
 
zamboni said:
The arrow seems to be pointing up on Herbert’s fantasy prospects. While it’s a long way from the pass happy days of old, he’s thrown the ball over 30 times each of the last three weeks (maybe because Dobbins is slowing down), playing at a high level, and elevating the receivers around him. Can’t wait until they build an offense around him.
Click to expand...
And how about dem rushing yards....ankle must be feeling a lot better finally.

Love this kid.
 
One of my favorite QBs to watch play, made a nice Mahomes-like throw to McConkey in the end zone after escaping pressure. I hope the Chargers can surround him with some weapons next year, pretty incredible how he done with the cast he has at his disposal.
 
King of the Jungle said:
One of my favorite QBs to watch play, made a nice Mahomes-like throw to McConkey in the end zone after escaping pressure. I hope the Chargers can surround him with some weapons next year, pretty incredible how he done with the cast he has at his disposal.
Click to expand...
That's why he is IMO an elite top 5 QB in the NFL. He is the real deal and when they get a complete team around him.....Super Bowl bound.

Franchise QB- Check
Excellent Head Coach - Check

Things should change for the Chargers drastically next season.
 
Picked him up as (hopefully) the missing piece on an otherwise stacked team. Dak at QB was my weak spot and hopefully Herbert will be solid down the stretch. Wont be elite due to the lack of weapons, but I'll take solid starter at this point.
 
TLEF316 said:
Picked him up as (hopefully) the missing piece on an otherwise stacked team. Dak at QB was my weak spot and hopefully Herbert will be solid down the stretch. Wont be elite due to the lack of weapons, but I'll take solid starter at this point.
Click to expand...
I also picked him up will be considering him v Mahomes week to week, he's trending up!
 
Brett Kollmann
Per @NextGenStats Justin Herbert peaked at an acceleration of 5.59 yards per second^2.

For reference, that is even higher than what Saquon Barkley peaked at when he hit that jump cut against the Falcons.

He's 6'6" 240.
Click to expand...

x.com

x.com x.com
 
Faust said:
Diving into Chargers QB Justin Herbert's recent run of dominance
Click to expand...
He's fun to watch and starting to show why a few years ago he was viewed as one of the top dynasty QBs. He's inching back up there thanks in no small part to Harbaugh/Roman rebuilding the culture, but ironically what may hold him back fantasy-wise is also Harbaugh/Roman due to their conservative, run-focused, play slow approach (albeit less so over the past month or so).
 
Ridgeback said:
Todem said:
zamboni said:
Herbert has to be in the MVP conversation right now, even if it’s almost certainly Lamar’s. Absolutely carrying the team right now and not a lot around him.
Click to expand...
Absolute stud.
Click to expand...
Where are all the detractors now? I never understood the hate. Dude is a legit stud. I mean look at the lack of talent he has around him as well.
Click to expand...
Beats me. I have loved this kid since his college days.
 
Ridgeback said:
Todem said:
zamboni said:
Herbert has to be in the MVP conversation right now, even if it’s almost certainly Lamar’s. Absolutely carrying the team right now and not a lot around him.
Click to expand...
Absolute stud.
Click to expand...
Where are all the detractors now? I never understood the hate. Dude is a legit stud. I mean look at the lack of talent he has around him as well.
Click to expand...
A lot of the trepidation was how run-heavy Harbaugh/Roman would be. And while they are indeed one of the least pass heavy teams, and that may limit some fantasy upside, the coaches are smart enough to have Justin sling it a good amount.
 
Next Gen Stats
Justin Herbert reached a top speed of 20.50 mph on his 30-yard scramble run, the 2nd-fastest speed as a ball carrier of his career and the 3rd-fastest speed by a quarterback this season.

🔹 Rushing Yards Over Expected: +18
🔹 First Down Probability: 93.1%

#CINvsLAC | #BoltUp
Click to expand...

x.com

x.com x.com
 
zamboni said:
The guy is a true class act - totally defended Quentin Johnson after the game. No wonder Harbaugh adores him.

x.com

x.com x.com

That said, can't wait until they put more weapons around him next year.
Click to expand...
That is truth. Three awful drops and an end zone shot that he could have come down with if played better. Amazing what Herbert has been able to do with arguably the worst pass catching group n the league.
 
King of the Jungle said:
zamboni said:
The guy is a true class act - totally defended Quentin Johnson after the game. No wonder Harbaugh adores him.

x.com

x.com x.com

That said, can't wait until they put more weapons around him next year.
Click to expand...
That is truth. Three awful drops and an end zone shot that he could have come down with if played better. Amazing what Herbert has been able to do with arguably the worst pass catching group n the league.
Click to expand...
Had he been able to beat Lamar, I think that would have put Herbert right in the MVP conversation. Very good start, but obviously his receivers let him down.
 
Pro Football Network
If Justin Herbert throws for 226 yards tonight against the Chiefs, he will join Peyton Manning (20,618 passing yards) as the only players with at least 20,000 passing yards in their first five seasons in NFL history.
Click to expand...

x.com

x.com x.com
 
Next Gen Stats
Justin Herbert used play action on a career-high 47.2% of his dropbacks against Denver, finishing 12 of 15 for 155 yards with a play fake.

This season, Herbert ranks 2nd in the NFL in passing yards on play action (1,339), fewer than only Jared Goff (1,539).

Powered by @awscloud
Click to expand...

x.com

x.com x.com
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Tau837 said:
  • The defense is going to be top half of the league, maybe top 10. They are significantly improved in the front 7, and I believe Minter's scheme will yield results much better than Staley's did.
  • The running game will be good enough that the Chargers will be in the top half of the league in rushing attempts. They will have a better running scheme and better run blocking than they have had in many years and that will make up for what may reasonably be viewed as a committee of below average RBs.
  • Those two things will be enough to limit Herbert's dropbacks to 60-65% of offensive snaps.
Click to expand...
I don’t see that defense as dramatically improved. Scheme effectiveness is TBD.

Regarding the RB, Gus Edwards is not a feature back, and Dobbins is coming off a torn Achilles, usually an injury that RB struggle to return to form from. And their rookie vidal seems kind of Jag-ish to me. I do not see them as a top half of the league rushing team.

They can have a good scheme all day long but without the personnel to execute it, they’ll be behind the chains a lot, which will mean passing.

We’ll have to agree to disagree.
Click to expand...

I was close:
  • Defense: "top half of the league, maybe top 10" - check
    • #1 in points allowed
    • #2 in offensive TDs allowed
    • #1 in red zone TD percentage
    • #11 in yards allowed
    • #7 in passing yards allowed
    • #14 in rushing yards allowed
    • #13 in yards allowed per play
    • #3 in first downs allowed
    • #5 in third down percentage
    • #4 in percentage of opposing drives ending in an offensive score
    • #12 in percentage of opposing drives ending in a turnover
  • Rushing attempts: "top half of the league" - check
    • All positions: 463, tied for #11
    • RBs only: 373, #12
  • QB dropbacks: "60-65% of offensive snaps" - I was arguing the low side and it turns out I was still too high
    • 586 (509 passing attempts, 44 sacks, 33 scrambles) out of 1016 plays = 58%
    • Ignoring one trick play pass by the punter
  • Herbert passing attempts per game: lowest in Herbert's career, as predicted
    • All games: 29.6
    • All games except PIT game when Herbert got hurt and left early: 30.4
  • Herbert fantasy finish: outside top 10, as predicted
    • Total points: #14
    • PPG (ignoring single game QBs Milton and Jimmy G): #16
For 2025, I expect the following:
  • Roman remains OC - offensive scheme and playcalling will likely be very similar to 2024
  • Improved IOL - helps Herbert but also supports more/better rushing
  • Improved passing targets - helps Herbert
  • Continued strong defense
Taking all factors into consideration to the extent one cane 9 months before the season, I strongly doubt Herbert will be a top 10 fantasy QB in 2025. (Note: I'm only commenting on fantasy here... I definitely think he is a top 10 NFL QB.)

As a Chargers fan, I'm very happy the Chargers have Herbert. But if I owned Herbert in dynasty, I would be looking to trade him to another owner who still believes he will be a top 5-10 fantasy QB.
 
Tau837 said:
I strongly doubt Herbert will be a top 10 fantasy QB in 2025. (Note: I'm only commenting on fantasy here... I definitely think he is a top 10 NFL QB.)
Click to expand...
I think it’ll depend on whether they sign or draft more receiving help.

Herbert was very solid as a SF QB in FF.

I just looked at my MFL league. He was QB12 in that 16 team league, which makes him well above average QB2 in SF.

You don’t see a scenario where he could move up 2 spots in the rankings? Really?

ETA - in my more QB-heavy CBS league he was QB13, a mere 20 points off of QB10.

That’s 1 year in the new system. Seems likely he’d be better with that year under his belt, no? He also came into the season nursing a high ankle sprain IIRC.

Just remembered it was plantar fasciitis.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

W
Dynasty Rookie Draft 1.02 Dilemma
Replies
21
Views
589
beef
beef
E
Starting a brand new NFL team…what young QB are you going with? Rank them!
Replies
43
Views
2K
travdogg
T
eighsse2
Best Players to Miss the Playoffs
Replies
38
Views
796
Cowboysfan8
Cowboysfan8

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top