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QB Kyler Murray, ARZ (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Bracie Smathers
- Start date
Only 9 QB's in NFL history have ever thrown 40, and as Bronco Billy said, Mayfield just set the rookie record with 27. The only way he even gets 40 TD's total is if he breaks both Mayfield's passing (27) and Newton's rushing (14) records at the same time. That being said, he does have a decent shot at being a QB1. In the last 8 yrs, 4 rookie QB's have finished in the top 12, but they did it with their legs, not their arms.
Totally unrelated, but a neat fact I just saw - Matthew Stafford is the only QB to complete at least 60% of his passes in all 16 games of a season.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Unless they offer rushing production. RG3 and Cam were high-end QBs during their rookie seasons. Allen and Jackson were QB1s for stretches, Allen being the top overall QB during the fantasy playoffs.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
Lots of people thought he had the potential for a good year. This isnt some world class revelation.
No thanks- Too much unpredictability to their numbers leading to low floors. I'd rather have a higher floor guy especially playoff time.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Are you sure about that? All the guys I mentioned were pretty consistent. (And I forgot about Watson, prior to his injury.)
Injury concerns are legitimate, but running QBs have a hell of a track record, when they’re on the field. If the likes of Tebow, Jackson, and Allen can put up QB1 numbers, it feels like a given for Murray.
I think he has a top 10 floor and a top 3 ceiling, personally.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Given the current state of the QB position (a lot of good ones) I really like the idea of him as a priority 2nd QB unless his ADP gets out of control. But given the current state of the QB position (again, a lot of them) I doubt that happens. If he's a mess early on or runs himself into an injury then he's an easy cut, much like a lot of players drafted in that range. But if he hits that upside is massive in that offense with his wheels and coached by someone with a track record of not caring about defense on a team that has several holes there to start with.
Milkman
Footballguy
Nah thats bs people laughed and laughed when I said Mahomes could throw 40 TDs this year. I was the last one laughing though.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The KC offense was a juggernaut prior to Mahomes stepping in. Arizona doesn’t have the weapons, has a questionable offensive line, and the system is new and has no track record at this level. I’m bullish on Murray - I would even buy that he has Mahomes upside down the road - but I don’t see 40 TDs as attainable this year. With his running ability, 40 TDs probably makes him the highest scoring fantasy player ever.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Dude, that offense was already scary then you add a big arm to go with the wr's, Kelce, and Hunt plus Andy Reid finally had his prototypical qb. Everyone with a brain knew Mahomes had a chance to be really good.
Who is KM going to be throwing these 40 td's to and how is the line going to hold up enough for him to do it?
He is playing for a bottom 10 offense. Do you really think AZ can go here the bottom offensively to top 10 in a tough division??
Milkman
Footballguy
Murray will make it a bit easier on the OL. They will find themselves behind quite a bit too. 40 TD passes is a stretch but not out of the question imo. Hell 40 combined TDs will be super hard but I still see a way he could get there.
That what I said, maybe pair him with a very solid starting QB then if he bombs, drop him, plays well trade him... I draft Wilson 5th rd and Luck in 10th rd last year. Ended up of keeping both but nice luxury.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Yep that's exactly to the word what people told me last year about Mahomes. No I'm not trolling. Hard? Yes. Possible given the QB/coach/offense/defense situations? Yes.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I’m not projecting the offense to be top 10; it doesn’t need to be. I’m projecting Murray to be a quality rookie QB with a lot of rushing production. Looking at the guys who have had the rushing production that Kyler projects to, top 10 feels safe, if he can stay healthy. And Murray is a better passer than most of them.
Josh Allen put up ~170 yards and 1 TD/INT per game - and was QB2 overall, once they started using him as a runner. Murray might not match that rushing production, but he’ll smash those passing totals.
Milkman
Footballguy
I wonder if posters will be saying anybody with a brain knew Kyler Murray was going to throw _________ amount of TDs this time next year?
SMH
pantherclub
Footballguy
can you link your predictions on mahomes?
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I am always curious about posters history in what they think of prospects so this is a synopsis:
May 2018 ADP for Mahommes was QB8
May Stinkni Ref predicted top 5-10 QB in fantasy for years to come
Football Jones repeatedly said he will be a disappointment, be worth FF backup.
Milkman- June 2018 said all in. Many posters were posting this as well.
In September many people came in the thread to post they are starting him over ____
September He threw 6 TDS in a game and people were going a little crazy about it. (rightfully so)
September Stinkin Ref bumped all his posts to show how correct he was
I saw Milkman tried to trade Rodgers for him in September.
I didn't see any projections from Milkman in that thread. Perhaps it was a different thread.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
If you did, it was somewhere other than the "Official" Mahomes thread - https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/754403-dynasty-redraft-qb-patrick-‘showtime’-mahomes-ii-chiefs/page/5/
You had one pre-season quote on August 18th:
"I'm all in. The league hasn't seen a deep threat like Tyreek since Randy Moss. Mahomes could benefit like Daunte Culpepper did. Lots of picks but lots of good game scripts."
You had one pre-season quote on August 18th:
"I'm all in. The league hasn't seen a deep threat like Tyreek since Randy Moss. Mahomes could benefit like Daunte Culpepper did. Lots of picks but lots of good game scripts."
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
uh oh. Here we go...
Milkman
Footballguy
I specifically said he could throw 40 TD passes before the season started. Not sure if its in this forum or the other forum I frequent. I'll be happy to personally give you the link to that thread and let you see if you keep it confidential what forum it is and not copy paste my comments there. I don't have you on ignore which means you've been respectful so I have no problem doing that.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'll take your word for it.
Restricting it to what was said here - you were right that Mahomes would have a good year. But so were others.
I agree that Murray should have a good year this year. But 40 TDs by a rookie QB would be one of the greatest seasons in NFL history.
Restricting it to what was said here - you were right that Mahomes would have a good year. But so were others.
I agree that Murray should have a good year this year. But 40 TDs by a rookie QB would be one of the greatest seasons in NFL history.
Milkman
Footballguy
Cool. I'm higher on Murray than you are. I'm ok with that.
These QB are coming out of college more pro ready than ever before. The Kingsbury/Murray pairing along with the other weapons they had or added plus the terrible defense makes me think Murray has a legit shot at breaking Baker Mayfield's rookie td pass record. Add in the 4-8 cheap rushing TDs and we're creeping awfully close to 40 TDs.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Kingsbury had Mahomes in college and didnt really do anything. Whats going to change now?
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
You have finally said something I can agree to - he does have a legit shot at 28 passing TD's. I was only on your case when you were saying 40 passing TD''s was in his range. There is a big difference between 28 and 40. I will say this much - if he can get to 28 passing TD's, he will surely be a top 5 QB, because his legs will do the rest.
Milkman
Footballguy
Mahomes threw 77 TD passes the last 2 years he was there. TT was 2nd and 5th in points scored.
Milkman
Footballguy
Throwing 40 TDs is in Murrays range. Unlikely? Sure. In his range? Yes. At least I think so.
They are going to find themselves behind a lot.........lots of good game scripts.
I don’t doubt you were high on Mahomes. But let’s be real, if you had stated at any point on these boards that Mahomes could throw 40 TDS last year you’d have that quote bookmarked and would’ve posted it 50 times over by now.
Milkman
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Gave Saywhat? the link.......if anybody cares enough to ask him he can vouch for me that I predicted Mahomes could throw 40 or more TDs last year before the start of the season. I was so high on Mahomes because I thought KC would have a bad defense and I loved the way Mahomes and Tyreek fit together.
I'll quit posting about it now so we can all get back to Murray and stop derailing this thread.
I'll quit posting about it now so we can all get back to Murray and stop derailing this thread.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Lol sorry I hurt your feelings. Welcome to my ignore list. Please do the same so you don't use my posts to get better. Please don't cuss at me either kthx. Well you can now. I won't be reading them. Lolol
matuski
Footballguy
Could you show me this prediction please?
Also - I'm shaking my head no at the Murray throwing 40td passes.. not sure how this became about you, but good job.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
He said it on this board, or another board or some secret board or perhaps even in a dream but by God he said it and somebody somewhere laughed at him. Now he is getting the last laugh.
Don't believe AZ has the offensive weapons to succeed offensively plus tough divisional games. No TE, no top tier WR, below avg OL and a good RB with rookie QB.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think the TD:INT ratio is lofty, but the rest is doable. I think he exceeds Wilson’s rushing numbers and throws for 200+ YPG.
I will take the over on everything, except passing TD's. Unless David Johnson gets 10 TD's through the air.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I like Murray a lot but it’s more likely he never throws for 40 TDs in a season than he throws for 40 TDs this season.
i mean there’s “hyperbole” and then there’s just plain lunacy.
matuski
Footballguy
He shared the post with me. Predicted 40+tds, 20ints... "prob not #1 but would make an impact".
So he was about as right as you can be.
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