What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

QB Kyler Murray, ARZ (5 Viewers)

stlrams said:
No, upcoming TE, pro-bowl WR in Landry, Clev OL grades out high the past 2 years and a stable of 3 good RB's on the roster.   Definitely more talent in Clev vs AZ situation 
Click to expand...
I guess you're right about the line. But Njoku is skating on potential and Fitzgerald is every bit as good as Landry. The RB situation is similar.

Anyway, I'd still agree there's more talent in Cleveland - but not that there's none in Arizona.

 
Supporting talent had very little to do with the problems in Cleveland.  It was almost exclusively coaching and QB.

And it isn't difficult to see Rosen/Mike McCoy/Byron Leftwich/Steve Wilks to Kyler/Kingsbury riding the same line as Kizer/Tyrod/Hue Jackson/Todd Haley to Baker/Kitchens.

Will it happen? :shrug:  But the supporting talent probably won't play a big role in its outcome.

 
Just realized az was LAST like 32nd in offense in 2018.  A 40 td year from Murray would be a truly amazing turn around.  

 
stlrams said:
Just realized az was LAST like 32nd in offense in 2018.  A 40 td year from Murray would be a truly amazing turn around.  
Click to expand...
In fairness, the entire coaching staff and offense has basically turned over. It’s not close to the same team as last year.

 
kutta said:
In fairness, the entire coaching staff and offense has basically turned over. It’s not close to the same team as last year.
Click to expand...
Mostly the same players thou.  Can Arizona offense improve , absolutely, but to go from last to stats that constitutes a top 10 offense is a leap I’m not willing to make. Plus they play in a tough division.  

 
stlrams said:
Mostly the same players thou.  Can Arizona offense improve , absolutely, but to go from last to stats that constitutes a top 10 offense is a leap I’m not willing to make. Plus they play in a tough division.  
Click to expand...
Everyone says their line was terrible but all 5 offensive linemen were on IR by early December.

David Johnson had a down year but he wasn't targeted for passes and was run up the middle a ridiculous number of times. 

Palmer lasted 3 games before giving way to Rosen who averaged about 180 yards a game on 55 percent passing.  

Their best receivers were Kirk, who was a rookie and changed quarterbacks to an inaccurate Rosen, and Fitzgerald, who had his fewest targets and yards per game of his career.  They had poor qb play, poor scheme and no depth at the position. 

They've changed coaches to a more aggressive scheme but also intend to run a lot of plays.  Last year they ran just 902 offensive plays, 31st in the league (Miami was 32nd). This year they should easily be over 1000 just on pace of play. 

In other words they should be better in every way on offense this year.  More plays, better blocking, more efficient running plays, better receiving, and of course Murray.  It seems reasonable to think he can do better than the combined 15 touchdowns and 57 percent passing from Rosen and co. Especially when one of the passing touchdowns was thrown by Fitzgerald. 

They should easily get over 10 percent more plays and want to have closer to 15 or 20 percent. More plays with more efficient running and passing can quickly increase the overall numbers. I agree that jumping from 15 to 40 touchdowns is an enormous leap but they are primed to make a huge leap of some kind.

 
bostonfred said:
Everyone says their line was terrible but all 5 offensive linemen were on IR by early December.

David Johnson had a down year but he wasn't targeted for passes and was run up the middle a ridiculous number of times. 

Palmer lasted 3 games before giving way to Rosen who averaged about 180 yards a game on 55 percent passing.  

Their best receivers were Kirk, who was a rookie and changed quarterbacks to an inaccurate Rosen, and Fitzgerald, who had his fewest targets and yards per game of his career.  They had poor qb play, poor scheme and no depth at the position. 

They've changed coaches to a more aggressive scheme but also intend to run a lot of plays.  Last year they ran just 902 offensive plays, 31st in the league (Miami was 32nd). This year they should easily be over 1000 just on pace of play. 

In other words they should be better in every way on offense this year.  More plays, better blocking, more efficient running plays, better receiving, and of course Murray.  It seems reasonable to think he can do better than the combined 15 touchdowns and 57 percent passing from Rosen and co. Especially when one of the passing touchdowns was thrown by Fitzgerald. 

They should easily get over 10 percent more plays and want to have closer to 15 or 20 percent. More plays with more efficient running and passing can quickly increase the overall numbers. I agree that jumping from 15 to 40 touchdowns is an enormous leap but they are primed to make a huge leap of some kind.
Click to expand...
I agree totally just not buying the hype just yet.   Even if we predict a 25% improvement it only gets us to 20 TDS.  If I see him running in the preseason it’s a recipe for injury.  If he can play behind the line then he has a chance. 

 
stlrams said:
I agree totally just not buying the hype just yet.   Even if we predict a 25% improvement it only gets us to 20 TDS.  If I see him running in the preseason it’s a recipe for injury.  If he can play behind the line then he has a chance. 
Click to expand...


I’m pulling for Murray, but we’re talking about a HC who never coached in the NFL before and had a losing record in college, in which his experience also was not extensive, coaching a rookie QB and installing a completely different system that the vets will also have to get used to.  Then there is the D, which is lacking more than a bit.

If people are expecting a CLE/Kitchens type of turnaround - AZ is a lot further from being in a position to do so and has an entire team including coaches who are going to be learning a new O and the NFL by being thrown into the fire.  

This has every bit as good a chance of blowing up into a bonfire as it does of moving the franchise forward significantly.

 
I have no expectations but I'm looking forward to trading him for a King's Ransom down the road.

These mobile QBs scare me.

 
I have Luck, Wentz, Trubisky and Mayfield. Would it be a wasted pick if I drafted him?

Tex

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Depends on the rest of your roster.

But I like the philosophy of "If he's on my team, he's not on yours."
Click to expand...
There’s not really a position of need. I’ve built a solid team for years to come. I keep talking myself out of focusing on him draft wise. Then I’d have to guess who to get rid of. The only position I’m not deep at is TE but a few years down the road WR will be a need if I don’t stay on top of my roster.

Tex

 
stlrams said:
Mostly the same players thou.  Can Arizona offense improve , absolutely, but to go from last to stats that constitutes a top 10 offense is a leap I’m not willing to make. Plus they play in a tough division.  
Click to expand...
Best I could find was New Orleans the year they got Brees. 31st to 5th in points scored.
Redskins 26th to 4th when Robert griffin was a rookie.
Patriots 25th (Bledsoe) to 6th (Brady) in 2001.
Bucs 27th to 6th when they got rid of Dilfer.
Raiders 31st to 6th in 2010.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
BigTex said:
There’s not really a position of need. I’ve built a solid team for years to come. I keep talking myself out of focusing on him draft wise. Then I’d have to guess who to get rid of. The only position I’m not deep at is TE but a few years down the road WR will be a need if I don’t stay on top of my roster.

Tex
Click to expand...
At some point if you have way too much QB capital, you have a strong trading opportunity.

If you don’t have a desperate need, take the best player and deal from strength to fix weaknesses later.

 
Kyler's FF worth will depend more on his legs than his arm - my guess is he will have to have 600 rushing yards minimum to reach top 10.

 
BigTex said:
I have Luck, Wentz, Trubisky and Mayfield. Would it be a wasted pick if I drafted him?

Tex
Click to expand...
I don't think you need any help. Based on some of the players you have talked about having, your league mates really need to step up their FF game.

Murray could be a upgrade over Trubisky perhaps, so I think he has some value for your team.

 
Biabreakable said:
I don't think you need any help. Based on some of the players you have talked about having, your league mates really need to step up their FF game.

Murray could be a upgrade over Trubisky perhaps, so I think he has some value for your team.
Click to expand...
There’s no doubt a few of them need to step up. Overall their solid, I’ve been lucky as hell to hit on my draft picks over the last 5 to 6 years and now things are looking decent for me. 

I’m strongly considering it was just curious as to what the pool thought. Thanks

Tex

 
stlrams said:
Mostly the same players thou.  Can Arizona offense improve , absolutely, but to go from last to stats that constitutes a top 10 offense is a leap I’m not willing to make. Plus they play in a tough division.  
Click to expand...
Well, not really.

There are no QB's left from last year  (Murray, Hundley).

For WR's, Fitz and Kirk are there, but the rest will all be new (Isabella, Butler, Johnson, White - most likely).

RB's will be the same (Johnson, Edmunds)

Starting TE will probably be new (Clay will probably start, with Seals-Jones getting time)

Starting offensive line will probably be Humphries, Pugh, Shipley, Sweezy, Gilbert. Last year, Shipley tore his ACL in training camp, Pugh (hand/knee) missed nine games, Humphries (knee) missed seven, and Gilbert (knee) missed 11. So basically, the entire offensive line was out last year for multiple games.

On offense, the only thing that didn't change was the RB's and the WR 1 and 2. So it's really not close to being the same players.

 
Cardinals on Murray’s Progress, Why Bush Is Crucial for Steelers, More NFL Notes

Excerpt:

Let’s start with this one: The Cardinals are very, very excited about how Kyler Murray has looked early on. You hear “legit” from one coach. You hear “impressive all the way around” from another. Realizing this is before the team has really seen the guy pull the rip-cord as an athlete—that’ll have to wait for live situations—it’s pretty easy to see the potential for some cool stuff in the fall. What they have seen, to this point, is impressive accuracy, instincts and command at the line of scrimmage, to go with a feel for a new scheme, that isn’t completely new to him. Add that to the mystery around that Kliff Kingsbury offense, and it’ll be a challenge for defenses to deal with in the first six weeks of the season or so (remember what the Redskins looked like early in 2012, or the Eagles looked like early in ’13 and ’16).
Click to expand...

 
temper expectations on a rookie QB in a run-n-shoot chuck-n-duck offense playing in the NFL. worst o-line in pro football, 49 yr old Fitz, DJ who hasn't done much in 2 years now, and general lack of talent at the offensive positions that matter , they're going to be a 4-5 win team. add to that a first time HC  calling for 5 wr sets against Sea, Sf, L.A. 6x/yr. 

I can't see 20 Tds let alone the 40 some are predicting. :oldunsure: ..Shrager says 3500/30. I nearly fell off my chair. a Bake Mayfield-esque season comes along once in a long while. 

I'm going to say 2500/18/15INT. typical ho-hum rookie season. some highs, mostly lows. It's not just him,it's the air-raid system in the NFL. If that o-line can't protect him , he's going to get killed.

 

 
Tanner9919 said:
temper expectations on a rookie QB in a run-n-shoot chuck-n-duck offense playing in the NFL. worst o-line in pro football, 49 yr old Fitz, DJ who hasn't done much in 2 years now, and general lack of talent at the offensive positions that matter , they're going to be a 4-5 win team. add to that a first time HC  calling for 5 wr sets against Sea, Sf, L.A. 6x/yr. 

I can't see 20 Tds let alone the 40 some are predicting. :oldunsure: ..Shrager says 3500/30. I nearly fell off my chair. a Bake Mayfield-esque season comes along once in a long while. 

I'm going to say 2500/18/15INT. typical ho-hum rookie season. some highs, mostly lows. It's not just him,it's the air-raid system in the NFL. If that o-line can't protect him , he's going to get killed.

 
Click to expand...
There have been 12 rookie QBs to throw for more than 20 TDs, and 9 have been this decade. Mayfield-like rookie passing seasons kinda do happen every year now. 

 
Josh Allen had two games where he rushed for over 100 yards and he had two other games where he totalled 99 and 95 yards rushing, so I fully expect that Murray will notch multiple games over 100 yards rushing in the 2019 season.

 
speaking of the offense , Cards were in last place across the board in nearly every statistical category in 2018.

32nd in pts/for , 32nd in total yards, 32nd in 1st downs, 29th in pass attempts, 32nd in pass yards, 30th in TD, 28th in INT, 32nd in NYA, 28th in rush attempts, 32nd in rush yards, 27th in rush TD, 32nd in ypa rushing,  32nd in percentage of drives ending in a score,  32nd in avg time per drive, 31st avg # of plays/drive, 32nd yet yards/drive, 32nd avg ptsscored/drive.\

and now you throw a rookie QB on top of that, with an offensive system that is a remake of the Mouse Davis chuck n duck offense that bombed in the 90s.

even if the Cards improve to 20th in every category listed above, they're STILL a mighty bad team. KM is going to get killed behind the absolute worst O-line in the NFL. defensive pressures are going to force him to make mistakes all to often.

 
Tanner9919 said:
speaking of the offense , Cards were in last place across the board in nearly every statistical category in 2018.

32nd in pts/for , 32nd in total yards, 32nd in 1st downs, 29th in pass attempts, 32nd in pass yards, 30th in TD, 28th in INT, 32nd in NYA, 28th in rush attempts, 32nd in rush yards, 27th in rush TD, 32nd in ypa rushing,  32nd in percentage of drives ending in a score,  32nd in avg time per drive, 31st avg # of plays/drive, 32nd yet yards/drive, 32nd avg ptsscored/drive.\

and now you throw a rookie QB on top of that, with an offensive system that is a remake of the Mouse Davis chuck n duck offense that bombed in the 90s.

even if the Cards improve to 20th in every category listed above, they're STILL a mighty bad team. KM is going to get killed behind the absolute worst O-line in the NFL. defensive pressures are going to force him to make mistakes all to often.
Click to expand...
This is not just "throwing a rookie QB on top of what they had last year," and changing the offensive system. This is an entire new coaching staff, and almost a complete makeover of the offense. I have no idea how anyone can say the offensive line is going to be so horrible when the entire offensive line was hurt last year for long stretches of games. Not just one or two guys, the entire line.

The starting offensive line will probably be Humphries, Pugh, Shipley, Sweezy, Gilbert. Last year, Humphries (knee) missed seven games,  Pugh (hand/knee) missed nine games, Shipley tore his ACL in training camp, Sweezy is new, and Gilbert (knee) missed 11 games. Basically, the entire offensive line was out last year for multiple games. 

So for the 5 offensive line positions, and 16 games, that's 80 possible starts. The probable starting line this year had a total of (9, 7, 0, 0, 5) games last year, or 21 games. How anyone can make any judgement based on last year and extrapolate to this year is beyond me.

 
Kyler Murray is basically a smaller version of Michael Vick but instead of C level throwing skills he comes with A- throwing skills. 

 
I’m intrigued here...with the week 1 job his, the whole point about QB’s in FF is upside.

We’ve seen rookie year breakouts from mobile QB’s like Cam Newton, RGIII, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson.  We’ve seen rookie QB’s that have mobility (aren’t statues) like Carson Wentz, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen be productive.

You can always find a QB that produces, if he falls flat, just go get another one - tread water.  With Murray...they literally hired a HC with his skill set in mind.  I can also imagine that defenses will pay for bringing the house and attacking ARI’s subpar OL, as Murray darts through a gap or two for huge gains.

My #1 overdraft target.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Milkman said:
Kyler Murray is basically a smaller version of Michael Vick but instead of C level throwing skills he comes with A- throwing skills. 
Click to expand...
he's a couple inches shorter, but only about 5 pounds lighter, he just needs to be smarter than Vick and not take hits

 
So what's a reasonable price for this guy.

I have Wentz as my backup in one league.  Would Wentz+2020 2nd (likely early) be too much?  Not enough?

Another league I have Russ as my only QB.  Would Russ+2020 2nd (likely late) do the job?

Hard to value this guy right now with the upside.

 
kutta said:
I have no idea how anyone can say the offensive line is going to be so horrible when the entire offensive line was hurt last year for long stretches of games. Not just one or two guys, the entire line.

The starting offensive line will probably be Humphries, Pugh, Shipley, Sweezy, Gilbert. Last year, Humphries (knee) missed seven games,  Pugh (hand/knee) missed nine games, Shipley tore his ACL in training camp, Sweezy is new, and Gilbert (knee) missed 11 games. Basically, the entire offensive line was out last year for multiple games. 

So for the 5 offensive line positions, and 16 games, that's 80 possible starts. The probable starting line this year had a total of (9, 7, 0, 0, 5) games last year, or 21 games. How anyone can make any judgement based on last year and extrapolate to this year is beyond me.
Click to expand...
You can make a judgement based strictly on talent and many have ranked the Cards O-Line low.

Arizona Cardinals not the worst, but right around it in Pro Football Focus’ 2019 offensive line rankings  Jul 10, 2019, 8:00am MDT

...They again have overhauled the offensive line heading into the 2019 season, the first under Kliff Kingsbury.

Steve Keim has tagged a group with a history of poor play, a litany of injury issues and short-term contracts to protect his prized rookie, Kyler Murray.

Now, Pro Football Focus has weighed in with their thoughts on each teams 2019 offensive line and maybe a bit unexpectedly, the Arizona Cardinals are not the worst, but they are not far off either:

30. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals’ offensive line was a shambles last year. They allowed the league’s second-most total pressures (218), the fourth-most hurries (142), the second-most hits (42) and the second-most sacks (34), all while they ranked dead last among teams in snaps played per pressure (2.6). And even though they added J.R. Sweezy and Marcus Gilbert over the offseason, you shouldn’t be surprised to hear that they’re still pretty thin upfront. Center Mason Cole allowed the second-most pressures among centers as a rookie, while J.R. Sweezy has allowed pressure on 5.7% of his snaps since 2016, which is tied for 60th among the 98 guards who have played at least 500 pass-blocking snaps in that three-year period.

Only the Houston Texans (31) and Miami Dolphins (32) are graded as worse.
Click to expand...
I think the mobility of Murray will help but the O-Line is not good.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
So what's a reasonable price for this guy.

I have Wentz as my backup in one league.  Would Wentz+2020 2nd (likely early) be too much?  Not enough?

Another league I have Russ as my only QB.  Would Russ+2020 2nd (likely late) do the job?

Hard to value this guy right now with the upside.
Click to expand...
I'm the wrong guy to answer this but with general consensus being that 2020 is a deep draft and significantly better than this years draft either one of those deals should work. I wouldn't personally do them but I'm a lot higher than others on Murray. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
So what's a reasonable price for this guy.

I have Wentz as my backup in one league.  Would Wentz+2020 2nd (likely early) be too much?  Not enough?

Another league I have Russ as my only QB.  Would Russ+2020 2nd (likely late) do the job?

Hard to value this guy right now with the upside.
Click to expand...
If I was the Murray owner I would instant accept those.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
So what's a reasonable price for this guy.

I have Wentz as my backup in one league.  Would Wentz+2020 2nd (likely early) be too much?  Not enough?

Another league I have Russ as my only QB.  Would Russ+2020 2nd (likely late) do the job?

Hard to value this guy right now with the upside.
Click to expand...
Wait...You think you need to add a 2nd to Russell Wilson to get Kyler Murray?  I Would need a 2nd with Murray to trade Wilson.  I havent followed this thread at all, but coming in on this post makes me think I am missing something or misreading your post somehow.  Wilson + 2020 2 for Murray?  

ETA FBGs dynasty ranking for the past 21 days (the cumulative ones) have Wilson and Wentz as 6/7, and Murray as 11.  None of the 4 guys with rankings posted have Murray over either one of them.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ChuckLiddell said:
I havent followed this thread at all, but coming in on this post makes me think I am missing something or misreading your post somehow. 
Click to expand...
Milkman loves Murray. Generational QB is his opinion. 

ETA: I thought it was Milkman not Freebagel you were quoting. It appears the hype has spread!

I'm excited to see what he can do. I will openly admit to pre rookie draft considering him at 1.10 but hoping hed fall to 2.1 in the league he went 1.4 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TheWinz
NFL fun facts when you are bored
2 3
Replies
118
Views
5K
TheWinz
TheWinz
T
Travdogg's positional rankings from week 3 onward
2
Replies
53
Views
6K
dipandglide
dipandglide
T
Travdogg's positional rankings from week 2 onward
2
Replies
93
Views
6K
ponchsox
ponchsox

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 5 (members: 0, guests: 5)
Back
Top