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QB match ups Week 1 (1 Viewer)

good thread - I'll go against the grain - I like Alex Smith a lot....better OL, very good weapons in Vernon and Crabtree - really like the matchup in the 1st week - leaning towards giving him the nod over McNabb who is gimpy with a tough matchup. Any other Smith believers out there?
Not me. I really think they're going to commit even more to the run this year and it would probably take another monster season from Davis for ASmith to be fantasy relevant.
 
good thread - I'll go against the grain - I like Alex Smith a lot....better OL, very good weapons in Vernon and Crabtree - really like the matchup in the 1st week - leaning towards giving him the nod over McNabb who is gimpy with a tough matchup. Any other Smith believers out there?
Not me. I really think they're going to commit even more to the run this year and it would probably take another monster season from Davis for ASmith to be fantasy relevant.
While I agree that SF will run the ball a lot, there is no reason why A Smith can't throw for 3500-23 this year. Davis is a stud, Crabtree is going to emerge this year as a star, Morgan is decent on the other side, and Gore is a very good pass catching back.SF schedule is cake this year. A Smith is a great QB to pair up with another in a QBBC.BTW, Smith has a great matchup this week.
 
good thread - I'll go against the grain - I like Alex Smith a lot....better OL, very good weapons in Vernon and Crabtree - really like the matchup in the 1st week - leaning towards giving him the nod over McNabb who is gimpy with a tough matchup. Any other Smith believers out there?
Not me. I really think they're going to commit even more to the run this year and it would probably take another monster season from Davis for ASmith to be fantasy relevant.
While I agree that SF will run the ball a lot, there is no reason why A Smith can't throw for 3500-23 this year. Davis is a stud, Crabtree is going to emerge this year as a star, Morgan is decent on the other side, and Gore is a very good pass catching back.SF schedule is cake this year. A Smith is a great QB to pair up with another in a QBBC.BTW, Smith has a great matchup this week.
Schedule is real nice - if Crabtree takes the next step I think Smith throws for 25 TDs this year.
 
Any other subscribers notice how completely and unbelievably wack the QB projections are for week 1? Obviously can't discuss in detail but let's just say if I followed them religiously I would need to drop my starting QB for one of several players currently on the WW. Seriously just awful, awful projections. Also IIRC not a single QB over 265 yards. WEAK.

 
Clifford said:
Any other subscribers notice how completely and unbelievably wack the QB projections are for week 1? Obviously can't discuss in detail but let's just say if I followed them religiously I would need to drop my starting QB for one of several players currently on the WW. Seriously just awful, awful projections. Also IIRC not a single QB over 265 yards. WEAK.
Really?!?? 4 of the top 5 are projected over 265 yards, and the one that isn't is projected for 264 yards. Yeah, noone is projected over 300 yards, and there's a few tweaks here and there I would make to move a few QB's up or down a little, but overall I think the projections are pretty decent, far from your weak comment.
 
Clifford said:
Any other subscribers notice how completely and unbelievably wack the QB projections are for week 1? Obviously can't discuss in detail but let's just say if I followed them religiously I would need to drop my starting QB for one of several players currently on the WW. Seriously just awful, awful projections. Also IIRC not a single QB over 265 yards. WEAK.
Let's discuss. IN week 1 last year in 6 pt TD and 1/20 pass leagues the top5 QBs were...Drew Brees-51Tony Romo-35Joe Flacco-33...no one started himTom Brady-30Matt Hass-28...no one started himNext 5Trent Edwards-25...no one started himMatt Ryan-23D.McNabb-22Brodie Croyle-21...no one started himBig Ben 20The next 8 QBs scored between 16-19 points which in most leagues would be about 200-225 yds and 1 TD so while I haven't combed the projections this week I also understand FBG uses a conservative approach. When you look at the RB projections there is perhaps a 1-2 point spread over a good portion of the RBs, it's splitting hairs. It's very difficult to predict actual points so perhaps a better use of time is to just simply look at match ups. My rule of thumb is if the match ups are neutral and better, I simply take the better player according to my personal rankings of players in the NFL from just a talent prspective. If I have a strong player with a really bad match up and a decent player with a really good match up, that situation I will pick the latter.
 
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I'd rather have a "from-the-gut" approach more similar to yours than the conservative approach. I could care less about #s, just wanna know who they think is a great play, good play, risky play, bad play

 
In one league I've got Flacco, Kolb, and Cutler. I keep going back and forth on all three. Is the Packers passing D good or can they be had like Arizona did to them in the playoffs?

Isn't there a Lineup Dominator? Or am I supposed to use the Draft Dominator and update the projections each week?

 
Rolling with Anderson @ stl, Manning (against tough pass defense) and Romo (on the road / divisional game) are sitting this one out.

I figure Anderson is a safe start with some upside, at least for this week anyway.

Let's discuss QB options this week. For probably over half the owners in most redraft leagues it is almost a no brainer who they will start week 1. But of course there are dynasty owners and other unique situations where they didn't just grab the 8th best QB off the board. I'll try and group these into different buckets.

Studs with good/great match ups

Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub…as I stated earlier in the week these 2 teams go for about 750 yds of combined offense every time they meet and you can be sure a lot of it will come via the air. You should turn over the keys to your franchise if you don't play one of these guys this week.

Phillip Rivers: Kansas City is going to be a better team but even without some of his weapons you gotta love Rivers in week 1. Should be a juicy match up.

Tony Romo: Washington is under new mgmt and their best DL is likely not playing. Romo and company should be able to fire on all cylinders at Fed Ex field this coming weekend.

Studs with slightly tougher match ups

Tom Brady: Cinci is pretty good at stopping the pass. I think Cinci can win the game outright but it would be hard to sit a guy like Brady the 1st week of the season. And even if the pats struggle you have to like Brady for about 250 yds and at least 1-2 scores.

Aaron Rodgers: Oh he should go for 300/3TDs most weeks but Philly is not a terrible defense and I think they will at least slow him and the Packers down just a smidge.

Drew Brees: The DL for the Vikings can create headaches at times for opposing QBs but Brees should still find plenty of room to operate. It might not be a juicy match up but 250-300 yds and at least 1 score via the air in the home opener for the defending champs.

Those 7 are going to be started no matter what I write so we'll just assume if you own them you are plugging them in. The other 20 is what will be more fun to dissect.

Brett Favre: Guy has looked terrible in the preseason, perhaps last year was really the last hoorah for this guy. I would not be itching to start him this week. I just have a bad feeling about Minnesota in the opener. Things don't seem right.

Eli Manning: Carolina is without Julius Peppers so from a pass rush standpoint I think Eli will have time and be able to find his talented WR trio plenty this week. Eli has opened with 256/TD/Int, and 216/0Td/Int the last 2 years in week 1 at home, both game against Washington.

Jay Cutler: Another top10 preseason FBG candidate and with a game against Detroit at home you would assume the best. It's a leap of faith for many owners but does Detroit really scare you? I like what they have done in the off season and think they will be improved but when you look at Cutler's schedule this has to be one of the better match ups.

Good QBs with tougher match ups

Matt Ryan: Despite Atlanta in my opinion being an easy choice to win this game you have to respect the Pitt defense and the return of Troy in the secondary. I don't think I would want to start Matt Ryan this week.

Joe Flacco: Love Flacco and what the Ravens have done in the off season to improve their passing game but against the Jets and now they have Revis back for the 1st week, no way Flacco will march in there and destroy the Jets. I doubt owners would want to start him this week if they can avoid it. 8 games last year Flacco threw for less than 200 yds.

Donovan McNabb: Not just the ankle but the match up here is not too good. He wasn't exactly lights out in the playoffs last year with several more weapons at his disposal. Can't really like this one too much this week.

Kevin Kolb: The hype train has died down. Personally I think he will be fine but many seem to think this is a rough match up. Last time we saw Green Bay they were getting a blow torch taken to them by Kurt Warner in a 51-45 contest. They were much better in the regular season but Kolb will have to throw for 225-275 yds and a score or two for Philly to have any chance in this one.

Carson Palmer: I really am on the fence here where you would rank the guy.

Tweeners or guys who don't have the track record to start with confidence

Matt Stafford: Chicago has a better pass rush but are they really going to shut down Detroit? I could see Stafford getting into a shootout to keep pace with Cutler and Martz.



Alex Smith: Seattle could be a good outing for him. He threw for 310 yds and 2 TDs at the Nest last year.



Chad Henne: 17/31/175/TD/3Int last year at Orchard Park.



Vince Young: Mostly a bye week guy anyways but he seems to have matured a lot the end of last year and going into this year. Would 50 yds on the ground and a TD or two to add to his passing yds break him into the top12-15 this week?

Definite bench weeks for these QBs?



Mark Sanchez

Matt Moore

Dennis Dixon

Trent Edwards despite a very suspect defense for Miami

Josh Freeman

Jake Delhomme

Matt Hasselbeck

Matt Cassel

A trio of QBs that might surprise this week

Derek Anderson: Seems like a good match up.

Kyle Orton: Jax is suspect in the secondary and Denver doesn't have much running game working right now, time to take to the air.



David Garrard: Always a decent play at home and Denver has a suspect defense to boot.

Who are you all on the fence about or who do you think surprises week 1?
 
After reading all the way through this thread today I'm wondering if anyone out there would choose to start Stafford (CHI) over Romo (WA). I may lack the objectivity (being a life-long Lions fan) to make the right call here. Love to hear your opinions.

 
Love MOP's threads. Good to be back reading again.

I'm starting Cutler over Flacco. Despite Footballguys and MOP's being clearly in the Cutler camp on that one it was a 51-49 type decision for me.

 
After reading all the way through this thread today I'm wondering if anyone out there would choose to start Stafford (CHI) over Romo (WA). I may lack the objectivity (being a life-long Lions fan) to make the right call here. Love to hear your opinions.
Both should do well but I tend to vote Romo. Many are saying Stafford this week in a shootout with Chicago.
 
In my case of two bad matchups (Ryan and McNabb) I will be rolling with Ryan, contrary to all of the comments here. I'm just not worried about the Steelers secondary as much as I am about McNabb's health and options against Dallas. Granted they do have Polamalu back, but outside of that I feel the secondary is suspect.

 
Consensus seems to be that Stafford will perform well in a shootout. I have him in a QBBC with Eli but am conflicted with who to start....I am already starting Best and Calvin so should this sway me in either direction?

 
Even I am strongly considering benching Brady fro cutler this week. The lions defense is going to be good one day, but today aint the day
That is crazy talk. Brady is going to be huge this season. Cutler could not have looked worse in pre-season.
It's preseason :goodposting: Vanillo O and D etc. And it's the Lions.FWIW both Dodds and Maurile et al have Cutler ranked over Brady (and almost everyone else) this week.
 
I couldn't disagree more with their projections for this week. Really off on a lot of the guys on there. Stafford in particular.

 
I couldn't disagree more with their projections for this week. Really off on a lot of the guys on there. Stafford in particular.
Called Farve and Brees dead on. Brees - 27-for-36, 237 yards, one touchdownFarve - 15 for 27, 171 yards, one td, one intLet's hear you numbers. Or, just badmouth him and don't add anything to shark pool
 
I couldn't disagree more with their projections for this week. Really off on a lot of the guys on there. Stafford in particular.
Called Farve and Brees dead on. Brees - 27-for-36, 237 yards, one touchdownFarve - 15 for 27, 171 yards, one td, one intLet's hear you numbers. Or, just badmouth him and don't add anything to shark pool
Last I checked I was allowed to disagree with anything I want.Thursday projections:2 Drew Brees NO vs MIN 23 34 278 2 0.9 2 5 0 22.614 Brett Favre MIN at NO 22 36 253 1.5 1.2 1 2 0 17.9To be honest I was talking about Tuesday projections, which have since drastically changed. I think they did well with these. Earlier in the week they had some people way too low IMO, but since I'm not supposed to talk specifics I'll leave it at that.
 
I couldn't disagree more with their projections for this week. Really off on a lot of the guys on there. Stafford in particular.
Called Farve and Brees dead on. Brees - 27-for-36, 237 yards, one touchdownFarve - 15 for 27, 171 yards, one td, one intLet's hear you numbers. Or, just badmouth him and don't add anything to shark pool
Last I checked I was allowed to disagree with anything I want.Thursday projections:2 Drew Brees NO vs MIN 23 34 278 2 0.9 2 5 0 22.614 Brett Favre MIN at NO 22 36 253 1.5 1.2 1 2 0 17.9To be honest I was talking about Tuesday projections, which have since drastically changed. I think they did well with these. Earlier in the week they had some people way too low IMO, but since I'm not supposed to talk specifics I'll leave it at that.
Disagree - sure, that's half the fun. How about adding something to the conversation while you do it?
 
MOP, you should really just start getting paid for your submissions. I do not know about the rest of the posters/readers but I personally look forward to your weekly RB article, more than anything. I believe FBG is the best FF site going but if I am wavering on a RB decision for the week, your article always gets weighted highly in my decision making.

Now you are getting into the QB realm, I will have to monitor your opinions here but your track record with me is top notch. Is WR next?

Thanks for everything!

 
MOP, love the stuff. Very good snapshots. I agree in most cases.

One, however, I disagree strongly with. Romo v Redskins. Why?

1) Washington ALWAYS plays Dallas tough.

2) 3-4 defensive teams give Dallas the most trouble. 2 of their worst games last year were Green Bay and Denver. What schemes do they run? 3-4. Go look at 2008. Same thing. Dallas struggles with rusher recognition. Thats the hallmark of the 3-4. Disguising where the rush is coming from.

3) Dallas is missing 2 o-line starts. Their replacements are significantly less able. They had trouble with rusher recognition when their regular o-line is in there. Its going to be materially worse with 2 backups.

Haslet loves to run blitzing 3-4 schemes. Yes, they are transitioning to it. No, they don't have the DL depth right now. But sending rushers from every which way is very effective against Dallas. Romo will be running for his life.

I expect Dallas to run a lot of 2 TE, 2RB sets. They were VERY effective with that lineup last year. Bludgeon ball. Felix and Barber. Lots of quick, 3 step drop passes. What they have to avoid is 2nd and long, 3rd and long. Haslet will unleash the hounds then and Romo is unlikely to be successful.

Overall, I expect this to be a 17-14 type score game. You can do the math on how many TDs that equates to for Romo.

Dallas may have a few big plays, especially passing. But I seriously doubt they will have (m)any long, sustained drives unless its late.

 
MOP, you should really just start getting paid for your submissions. I do not know about the rest of the posters/readers but I personally look forward to your weekly RB article, more than anything. I believe FBG is the best FF site going but if I am wavering on a RB decision for the week, your article always gets weighted highly in my decision making.Now you are getting into the QB realm, I will have to monitor your opinions here but your track record with me is top notch. Is WR next?Thanks for everything!
Hi Fanatics, thanks for the props.The RB thread takes up a lot of time and I am never going to compromise that weekly addition to the SP so I am not going to make a promise that I can do a weekly QB thread. This however is realistic but it's a far cry form the time invested in the RB thread. I was just attempting to get some talk going on QBs for week 1 and I'm happy folks are helping each other out, that's always a good thing. My view on WRs are that they largely are a crapshoot. Even the studs disappear for weeks at a time it seems. WRs can post top20 numbers for the year and owners will still call them bums. I just don't get excited trying to predict WRs week to week but if you follow FBG and the weekly content, pay attention to Clayton's SOS, it's one my primary tools as the season rolls along and spotting weaker DBs that you can sometimes pick on. Also the weekly stats, I try and key in on number of targets. The guy getting 9 attempts a week can be a lot more valuable than the guy who cashed in on 2 attempts but won't see the field often. Those scenarios can be reversed as well which adds to the frustration in WRs. Another good rule of thumb is finding the better passing match ups. It makes sense that if Manning is going to throw for 300 yds this week which he might, that Pierre Garcon for example should be a good play. It's not 100% he'll do well but he should be in line to catch several balls. Wayne is only going to rack so many of those 300 yds. Things like that can make picking a WR a little easier.
 
MOP, love the stuff. Very good snapshots. I agree in most cases.One, however, I disagree strongly with. Romo v Redskins. Why?1) Washington ALWAYS plays Dallas tough. 2) 3-4 defensive teams give Dallas the most trouble. 2 of their worst games last year were Green Bay and Denver. What schemes do they run? 3-4. Go look at 2008. Same thing. Dallas struggles with rusher recognition. Thats the hallmark of the 3-4. Disguising where the rush is coming from.3) Dallas is missing 2 o-line starts. Their replacements are significantly less able. They had trouble with rusher recognition when their regular o-line is in there. Its going to be materially worse with 2 backups.Haslet loves to run blitzing 3-4 schemes. Yes, they are transitioning to it. No, they don't have the DL depth right now. But sending rushers from every which way is very effective against Dallas. Romo will be running for his life.I expect Dallas to run a lot of 2 TE, 2RB sets. They were VERY effective with that lineup last year. Bludgeon ball. Felix and Barber. Lots of quick, 3 step drop passes. What they have to avoid is 2nd and long, 3rd and long. Haslet will unleash the hounds then and Romo is unlikely to be successful.Overall, I expect this to be a 17-14 type score game. You can do the math on how many TDs that equates to for Romo.Dallas may have a few big plays, especially passing. But I seriously doubt they will have (m)any long, sustained drives unless its late.
:pickle:
 
In one league I've got Flacco, Kolb, and Cutler. I keep going back and forth on all three. Is the Packers passing D good or can they be had like Arizona did to them in the playoffs?
GB's passing D is young and inexperienced right now.Their expected nickle corner (at least a few weeks ago) Underwood has been ruled out. They will be starting rookie Sam Shields at the nickel back spot and a rookie safety.While Arizona tore them up, so did Minny and Pitt. Now...those are 3 pretty solid QBs there (Big Ben, Warner, and Favre). Can Kolb do it too?Possibly, if they sit back like they did against Freeman last year. Id suspect they will try bringing a lot of pressure early on Kolb.But Im starting him in one league (over Favre) and feel that he will score pretty well. If nothing else, they will have to throw a lot to keep up with Green Bay's offense.Hard to bench Cutler against Detroit though.
 
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In one league I've got Flacco, Kolb, and Cutler. I keep going back and forth on all three. Is the Packers passing D good or can they be had like Arizona did to them in the playoffs?
GB's passing D is young and inexperienced right now.Their expected nickle corner (at least a few weeks ago) Underwood has been ruled out. They will be starting rookie Sam Shields at the nickel back spot and a rookie safety.

While Arizona tore them up, so did Minny and Pitt. Now...those are 3 pretty solid QBs there (Big Ben, Warner, and Favre). Can Kolb do it too?

Possibly, if they sit back like they did against Freeman last year. Id suspect they will try bringing a lot of pressure early on Kolb.

But Im starting him in one league (over Favre) and feel that he will score pretty well. If nothing else, they will have to throw a lot to keep up with Green Bay's offense.

Hard to bench Cutler against Detroit though.
:coffee:
 
Rolling with Anderson @ stl, Manning (against tough pass defense) and Romo (on the road / divisional game) are sitting this one out. I figure Anderson is a safe start with some upside, at least for this week anyway.
this has to be a joke. have you looked at da's game log over the last 2 seasons? even against bad def, he is jamarcus level unstartable. if you follow thru i hope you post a followup of your reaction.
 
good thread - I'll go against the grain - I like Alex Smith a lot....better OL, very good weapons in Vernon and Crabtree - really like the matchup in the 1st week - leaning towards giving him the nod over McNabb who is gimpy with a tough matchup. Any other Smith believers out there?
Not me. I really think they're going to commit even more to the run this year and it would probably take another monster season from Davis for ASmith to be fantasy relevant.
While I agree that SF will run the ball a lot, there is no reason why A Smith can't throw for 3500-23 this year. Davis is a stud, Crabtree is going to emerge this year as a star, Morgan is decent on the other side, and Gore is a very good pass catching back.SF schedule is cake this year. A Smith is a great QB to pair up with another in a QBBC.BTW, Smith has a great matchup this week.
I like Alex Smith this year as well, and especially this week. He gained some confidence by finishing last season strong and has taken on a more vocal leadership role during training camp/pre-season. Davis is a beast and Crabtree will continue to develop, couple that with back to back seasons with the same offensive coordinator and there is no reason he won't shake the "bust" tag.
 
The Stafford hype train will suffer a hiccup this week. When the Bears D is healthy, they're a strong group. You have Peppers and Tommie Harris who are both "must double team" guys. You have a very strong LB corps with Briggs in his prime. The secondary is above average only and the safety spot is a weakness, but Stafford is gonna be harrassed heavily.

Don't kid yourselves in week 1. The Bears D IS oldish though and by week 10, all bets are off.

 
I've got a tough decision to make this week at QB. I drafted Romo as my #1 QB, and have Cutler as my backup (and Stafford carrying a clipboard).Romo has a ton of weapons to throw to, but I think it's a bit too early in the season to see him taking full advantage of his options. He also has a pretty fair running game to back him up, and is going into hostile territory for the season opener - a Sunday night game, no less. I think a slightly more conservative game plan on offense, and an aggressive game plan on defense is the way Dallas will approach this game. Wear the Skins out, play down the clock, and get out of DC with a win.Cutler, however, seems primed to come out swinging in his matchup. He's got the arm, has the coach, has the passing offensive style, and will be eager to show he still has the ability to air it out - all this against a mediocre, but improving defense. Detroit will be ready to show that it's offense has taken the next step, and also will rely on airing it out, even to Best out on the sides as a relief outlet. I can see the Bears defense making a difference in this game via turnover, but a high scoring game no less.I think I have to roll with Cutler....
:yes:
:coffee:
 
I've got a tough decision to make this week at QB. I drafted Romo as my #1 QB, and have Cutler as my backup (and Stafford carrying a clipboard).Romo has a ton of weapons to throw to, but I think it's a bit too early in the season to see him taking full advantage of his options. He also has a pretty fair running game to back him up, and is going into hostile territory for the season opener - a Sunday night game, no less. I think a slightly more conservative game plan on offense, and an aggressive game plan on defense is the way Dallas will approach this game. Wear the Skins out, play down the clock, and get out of DC with a win.Cutler, however, seems primed to come out swinging in his matchup. He's got the arm, has the coach, has the passing offensive style, and will be eager to show he still has the ability to air it out - all this against a mediocre, but improving defense. Detroit will be ready to show that it's offense has taken the next step, and also will rely on airing it out, even to Best out on the sides as a relief outlet. I can see the Bears defense making a difference in this game via turnover, but a high scoring game no less.I think I have to roll with Cutler....
:)
:rolleyes:
Good call, certainly wasn't looking good till Forte broke out for 89 yds. Cutler has the numbers this week but it was not as easy as the stats would lead you to believe. I watched a lot of this game and I didn't think Chicago looked very sharp, did you?
 
I've got a tough decision to make this week at QB. I drafted Romo as my #1 QB, and have Cutler as my backup (and Stafford carrying a clipboard).Romo has a ton of weapons to throw to, but I think it's a bit too early in the season to see him taking full advantage of his options. He also has a pretty fair running game to back him up, and is going into hostile territory for the season opener - a Sunday night game, no less. I think a slightly more conservative game plan on offense, and an aggressive game plan on defense is the way Dallas will approach this game. Wear the Skins out, play down the clock, and get out of DC with a win.Cutler, however, seems primed to come out swinging in his matchup. He's got the arm, has the coach, has the passing offensive style, and will be eager to show he still has the ability to air it out - all this against a mediocre, but improving defense. Detroit will be ready to show that it's offense has taken the next step, and also will rely on airing it out, even to Best out on the sides as a relief outlet. I can see the Bears defense making a difference in this game via turnover, but a high scoring game no less.I think I have to roll with Cutler....
:pics:
:loco:
Good call, certainly wasn't looking good till Forte broke out for 89 yds. Cutler has the numbers this week but it was not as easy as the stats would lead you to believe. I watched a lot of this game and I didn't think Chicago looked very sharp, did you?
I agree with that...Forte certainly made Cutler's numbers look good. I am certain to go back to Romo in Week 2. It was the Detroit D that made it the way to go, and don't expect Cutler to repeat those numbers for awhile...
 

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