I think if Schuab is putting up numbers similar to what people are expecting out of Ryan, it will have to mean things have gone very wrong for Houston this season.Schaub obviously has that kind of talent, but that isn't at all the gameplan down there any more.
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QB Matt Ryan, IND (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter xenon
- Start date
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Surprising experts mock draft from ProfootballWeekly.com. http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/08/21/mock-draft-analysis-qbs-rule-round-one The top 5 QB go in the top 10 picks and Matt Ryan doesn't get drafted until round 9. 
LargeMouthBass
Footballguy
I'm not buying it yet. He's like a Honda Accord. Reliable but not fancy...
Badgers Fan
Footballguy
That's one of the worst "expert" mocks I've ever seen. Plus, how many "experts" do a 10 teamer? Matt Ryan is a near lock for 4000 yards and 30 tds, and a solid bet to approach 4500 yards and 35 td's. Considering that those types of quarterbaks have been getting drafted in the 40-60 range over the past couple of years, I see no reason why his ADP of 45th overall is THAT bad. Ryan was the QB8 last year, and very close to Romo at QB7. I don't see how a QB6 is outrageous. He does have more flaws that originally thought after his sensational rookie year, but he is still a very solid qb who's fantasy numbers will be elevated by the personnel around him.Surprising experts mock draft from ProfootballWeekly.com. http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/08/21/mock-draft-analysis-qbs-rule-round-one The top 5 QB go in the top 10 picks and Matt Ryan doesn't get drafted until round 9.
yellowdog
Footballguy
Brady's first 4 years (top) compared to Ryan's first 4 (bottom):
Comp Att % yds TDs INT
264 413 63.9 2843 18 12
373 601 62.1 3764 28 14
317 527 60.2 3620 23 12
288 474 60.8 3692 28 14
Comp Att % yds TDs INT
265 434 61.1 3440 16 11
263 451 58.3 2916 22 14
357 571 62.5 3705 28 9
347 566 61.3 4177 29 12
Physically very similar as well. I'm buying.
Comp Att % yds TDs INT
264 413 63.9 2843 18 12
373 601 62.1 3764 28 14
317 527 60.2 3620 23 12
288 474 60.8 3692 28 14
Comp Att % yds TDs INT
265 434 61.1 3440 16 11
263 451 58.3 2916 22 14
357 571 62.5 3705 28 9
347 566 61.3 4177 29 12
Physically very similar as well. I'm buying.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If you want to compare these two, knock youself out. But IMO the early 2000s and the early 2010s are night and day apart. The game and the way rules are enforced are so different the raw numbers don't mean a whole lot in trying to compare the two.
yellowdog
Footballguy
In Tom Brady's 4th year as a starter, he was 10th in my league scoring. Matt Ryan was 7th last year.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
QB rankings can be misleading, it's all about ADP IMHO.I'm okay with his current ADP. I'm not overly excited about it but would consider him if I didn't have a QB.
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Im still sold 
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Matt Ryan completed 18-of-26 passes for 220 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins in the third preseason game.
Coach Mike Smith admitted before kickoff that Atlanta would go with a vanilla game plan so as not to give too much away to the Week 1 opponent. Without benefit of Dirk Koetter's no-huddle offense, Ryan still produced a 107.9 passer rating while directing four scoring drives in 2.5 quarters. Through three preseason games, Ryan has completed 45-of-60 passes (75.0 percent) for 549 yards (9.2 YPA) and a 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio. There's been no more impressive QB in the NFL over the past three weeks.
Coach Mike Smith admitted before kickoff that Atlanta would go with a vanilla game plan so as not to give too much away to the Week 1 opponent. Without benefit of Dirk Koetter's no-huddle offense, Ryan still produced a 107.9 passer rating while directing four scoring drives in 2.5 quarters. Through three preseason games, Ryan has completed 45-of-60 passes (75.0 percent) for 549 yards (9.2 YPA) and a 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio. There's been no more impressive QB in the NFL over the past three weeks.
shader
Footballguy
Ive never been impressed with Ryan and until I see it in the regular season I'm not buying it. I've only seen one game this preseason and I wasn't impressed. Short passes, bad defenders, and nothing special.
Maybe I'll be proven wrong but I've consistently seen him unable to keep up with big time offenses and I can't figure out why everyone thinks this is the year. Tons of hype.
Maybe I'll be proven wrong but I've consistently seen him unable to keep up with big time offenses and I can't figure out why everyone thinks this is the year. Tons of hype.
donkshow
Footballguy
I intend on picking him as my QB in my keeper league (basically between him, Romo and Big Ben for who wasn't kept). And while it's just the pre-season, I think Ryan is the best option out of those 3 and I think he'll have a big year. Not as good as many are hyping him, but a 6-10 QB year, which is reasonable for me.
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
i picked him up in the 5th rd, but i took him a round or 2 sooner than i would have if i hadn't picked up julio jones in the second rd, wanted the double points when they hook up on td`s
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Why wouldnt you?! He's 4 years younger than Romo and 3 years younger than Ben and has posted similar or better numbers than both the last couple years.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
He could be borderline great player this season, but I still wouldn't touch him in the 4th round (where he seems to be going in the latest drafts).
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
According to MFL drafts over the last 2 days, his ADP is nearly in the 3rd round at 38.81 
Now, if for some reason he falls to the 5th round, I'll be targetting him, but after finally typing up my QB projections, I have Rivers only 3 points behind Ryan. Now I dont think Ryan will be there in the 5th in my leagues, so considering Rivers ADP is at the beginning of the 6th round, I think Im switching to him as the QB Im going for.
Now, if for some reason he falls to the 5th round, I'll be targetting him, but after finally typing up my QB projections, I have Rivers only 3 points behind Ryan. Now I dont think Ryan will be there in the 5th in my leagues, so considering Rivers ADP is at the beginning of the 6th round, I think Im switching to him as the QB Im going for.
netnalp
Footballguy
Re-watched the wild card game. Seeing that, and not feeling that the Falcons have improved over last season other than Julio gaining experience, I can't put Ryan higher than 9th. Both teams were horrible in that game till the Giants got things going with 3 min left in the 3rd quarter. The Falcons didn't show much life at all.
I think Eli is the one I'll go for. The secondary is beat up again, inexperienced and Ross is gone. The O-line is shaky still. The Giants should run better but I think only to the extent that it helps Eli rack up similar stats to last year.
I think Eli is the one I'll go for. The secondary is beat up again, inexperienced and Ross is gone. The O-line is shaky still. The Giants should run better but I think only to the extent that it helps Eli rack up similar stats to last year.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
that's about where I start considering him in 6 pt passing TD leagues.
gonzobill5
Footballguy
I went back to look how Ryan did with Julio last year. Julio missed part of week 5, all of week 6, 7, 11. Meanwhile, Ryan sat out the second half of week 17.
In the 11 games last season where Julio and Ryan both played a full slate, Matt Ryan's numbers project to 33 TDs 12 INTs and 4650 yards.
While these numbers would have put him ahead of Romo and Manning last year (would move him from QB8 to QB6), they are pretty much in line with what a lot of people are projecting for Ryan this year.
Then I realized that the 5 games that were removed were: GB (32), Carolina (24), @Detroit (22), Tenn (14), TB (21). Every single one of these games was a mediocre to downright bad pass defense each allowing over 225 ypg AND every single one of these games was played in a dome. I would have expected Ryan to perform well even without his stud WR.
Ryan's numbers against these teams project to 26 TDs 16 INTs 3500 Yards. I counted week 17 as half a game here.
I think this speaks volumes about how good Julio Jones is, and how much Matt Ryan's success this year is tied to him.
So, to answer the question - I'm sold on Matt Ryan just as long as Julio Jones is his WR. I think he warrants a draft pick in round 5, and presents value in 6 or 7. However, draft a solid back up, because if Jones gets injured Ryan becomes a mediocre fantasy QB, even against a subpar defense.
In the 11 games last season where Julio and Ryan both played a full slate, Matt Ryan's numbers project to 33 TDs 12 INTs and 4650 yards.
While these numbers would have put him ahead of Romo and Manning last year (would move him from QB8 to QB6), they are pretty much in line with what a lot of people are projecting for Ryan this year.
Then I realized that the 5 games that were removed were: GB (32), Carolina (24), @Detroit (22), Tenn (14), TB (21). Every single one of these games was a mediocre to downright bad pass defense each allowing over 225 ypg AND every single one of these games was played in a dome. I would have expected Ryan to perform well even without his stud WR.
Ryan's numbers against these teams project to 26 TDs 16 INTs 3500 Yards. I counted week 17 as half a game here.
I think this speaks volumes about how good Julio Jones is, and how much Matt Ryan's success this year is tied to him.
So, to answer the question - I'm sold on Matt Ryan just as long as Julio Jones is his WR. I think he warrants a draft pick in round 5, and presents value in 6 or 7. However, draft a solid back up, because if Jones gets injured Ryan becomes a mediocre fantasy QB, even against a subpar defense.
Rovers
Footballguy
This is why I have Ryan even higher (considerably higher) than his current FFG ADP of 40 and 6th QB. Is there another QB in the NFL that has two WR's that are going in the first two rounds? Is there a better WR tandem in the NFL? Maybe a couple are close, but certainly not better. I see Ryan being top 5 this year, maybe even an ADP of 20 in 6 pt passing TD leagues anyways. He also has a 3rd down RB who is getting better, and a HoF TE who still remains a reliable and safe target. Now add a no huddle offense...Of course, I could be all wrong, however when I have won leagues it's usually because of drafting a player that was thought of as a reach on draft day, and blew by his projections. Ryan is that guy in my drafts this year. If I'm wrong, I still have a top 10 QB, if I'm right, I'm golden. Looking past the top 5 QB's, I predict a Super Bowl letdown for Eli (not to mention the Eagles D and the improved Dallas secondary; 4 games right there), Peyton having some stuggles in Denver, cold weather games etc and Rivers.... after last year is a big ? Schaub always gets hurt, Ryan has remained healthy in contrast. I jumped for Rayn because I think the remaining QB's have unacceptable risk. Can Newton repeat? Brady is yet to get on the same page with Lloyd and has an awful O line. I see Ryan as very safe and with big time upside in 2012. I'm all in.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
A lot of good stats and analyzing going on in this thread.
I took Ryan in the 5th/6th round in 75% of my leagues, so I guess that means I'm pretty sold.
I took Ryan in the 5th/6th round in 75% of my leagues, so I guess that means I'm pretty sold.
I got Vick then Ryan in an auction draft the other night. 100 dollar cap, 13 roster spots total, Vick $8, Ryan $3. I do think I got Ryan for a good price, but truth be told ive never liked the guy.
I have heard his whole career what a gamer he is from all the pundits....I dont have the man crush. Mediocre at best so far as far as im concerned (I like the big guns, had Rodgers last year but tried a different route this year as the big guns were going for mid 20's).
All that said, ALL the "experts" now have him #7 basically in projections, so if it pans out (and vick stays healthy) im looking forward to having some nice trade bait!
If Vick gets hurt and Ryan is "Ryan", im looking forward to playing QBBC...
I have heard his whole career what a gamer he is from all the pundits....I dont have the man crush. Mediocre at best so far as far as im concerned (I like the big guns, had Rodgers last year but tried a different route this year as the big guns were going for mid 20's).
All that said, ALL the "experts" now have him #7 basically in projections, so if it pans out (and vick stays healthy) im looking forward to having some nice trade bait!
If Vick gets hurt and Ryan is "Ryan", im looking forward to playing QBBC...
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Got him for 10% of my auction total, 14 team league.
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kegger
Footballguy
I'm in the mediocre+ QB bracket on him this year as well to.
With a healthy Julio all season I see the numbers come up some.
(I don't see "elite" QB numbers coming at this point here)
But where he's being projected, and drafted I'm going after the
following QB's before I take Ryan.(yah I know some ranked higher)
(I'm just not sold and would only take him if he fell low enough)
Eli Manning,
Philip Rivers,
Tony Romo
Michael Vick
Then I'd have to make a choice between Ryan an say Peyton Manning
Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, with Roethlisberger/Freeman then bringing
up the rear. At that point I would wait where you'd have to take a
Ryan an go another position in the draft as I'm just not high on him.
.
With a healthy Julio all season I see the numbers come up some.
(I don't see "elite" QB numbers coming at this point here)
But where he's being projected, and drafted I'm going after the
following QB's before I take Ryan.(yah I know some ranked higher)
(I'm just not sold and would only take him if he fell low enough)
Eli Manning,
Philip Rivers,
Tony Romo
Michael Vick
Then I'd have to make a choice between Ryan an say Peyton Manning
Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, with Roethlisberger/Freeman then bringing
up the rear. At that point I would wait where you'd have to take a
Ryan an go another position in the draft as I'm just not high on him.
.
UFGator0587
Footballguy
Methinks if you weren't sold before today, you might want to reevaluate. Dude looks sharp, sharp, sharp.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
It's only one game but the early results are promising. Glad I bought in partially thanks to Levin and others here hyping him.
Master of Past and Present
Footballguy
KC pass defense and rush has been putrid. I hope he can play big all year as an Atlanta fan but going to be huge over reactions from this game. He's been big but has had all the time in the world and plenty of open guys. Only really had to make a couple of really tough throws.
shadyridr
Footballguy
this is true but theyre passing a heck of a lot. last yr they wouldve started runnng and running after taking the lead. theyre even passing inside the 10
Master of Past and Present
Footballguy
True, very pleased by the new OC play calling. 34-17 after a TO he went play action down field, that was a guaranteed run plus 2nd down in years past. It's the lack of tough throws that makes me think over reaction. All been easy and won't be all year.
Shlon
Footballguy
Ryan could've had 450, 6 total TD's today but offense just ran the ball after it was 40-17.
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
its ok...you can say it...hes really good this year and will continue to be really good.
OrangeCurtain
Footballguy
Having Matty Ice and Julio in a dynasty league is looking like it might not be a bad combo this year. That being said, I'm up 149 to 108 and opponent still has AJ Green and DMac, so it is likely I will squeak by or lose..
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
i would still buy low on him if I could... he puts up good yardage numbers
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Dondante
Footballguy
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
Through 4 games, Matt Ryan is on pace to set career highs in TDs (40), yards (5000+), YPA (8.3), and has a 66.4% completion rate.
I expect those numbers to come down a little as the season progresses; he's already thrown for 3 TDs in 3/4 games, but statistically, he's playing the best football of his career through the first quarter of this year.
He's never broken the top-5 in year end QB rankings in 6 previous seasons, but is on pace to this season. Maybe he's finally put it all together and is ready to join the supper-elite-upper-tier. Brady didn't break the top-5 until his 5th year as a starter (6th year in the league); same exact scenario with Brees; 5th year as a starter and 6th in the league.
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