QB Matt Ryan, IND (2 Viewers)

[ConnSKINS26]

I don't think he gets 500 from Tamme. I think its possible it comes from the RB position, but unlikely.

Why? He just needs someone competent.

When he had Gonzalez he showed he was more than willing to use the TE to move the chains. Toilolo is waiver fodder at best and got half-way to 500.

That's true, but I just think he'll spread it out among the WR's (and I don't think he reaches 5,000, so I think there's less to go around than you do). Tamme has really only ever produced when he was playing with Peyton, with whom he shared a Vulcan mind-meld.

 

[TripItUp]

He could easily get 500 from Tamme, but that's probably close to the ceiling.

 

[JoeSteeler]

i think he will get close to 5K...i have been adding Tamme in my large leagues when i can

 

[msudaisy26]

I think he could throw for 5000 and it wouldn't be that big of a stretch. That defense is still going to be bad, and their running game is a mess right now.

 

[LOCO]

Plus i will add.

Have you seen this guys schedule? It's softer than baby s***. Plays each nfc south team twice, the nfc east, and afc south. The only decent secondary in that list of teams is the Texans. Every other defense is below average at best.

 

[Sabertooth]

How many Tds? 30?

 

[TripItUp]

Plus i will add.

Have you seen this guys schedule? It's softer than baby s***. Plays each nfc south team twice, the nfc east, and afc south. The only decent secondary in that list of teams is the Texans. Every other defense is below average at best.

schedule is one reason why I'm relatively high on all the Falcons(Julio #1 for example)

I just wish a RB would emerge, so I can capitalize on that value too.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Plus i will add.

Have you seen this guys schedule? It's softer than baby s***. Plays each nfc south team twice, the nfc east, and afc south. The only decent secondary in that list of teams is the Texans. Every other defense is below average at best.

schedule is one reason why I'm relatively high on all the Falcons(Julio #1 for example)

I just wish a RB would emerge, so I can capitalize on that value too.

J. Jones, even at his ADP should offer solid return.

 

[eoMMan]

Tony Gonzalez should have a fine season.....along with Warrick Dunn.

 

[FF Ninja]

This is highly unlikely. Passing attempts should decrease if the running game can be less abysmal than last year.

 

[tangfoot]

This is highly unlikely. Passing attempts should decrease if the running game can be less abysmal than last year.

Do you see any signs of that so far?

 

[Ilov80s]

I think Tamme, Hankerson and Hardy can be productive (not enough to be fantasy valuable, but enough to boost Ryan). Hankerson was a really good athlete and a high draft pick. WRs are often late bloomers I would not totally write him off.

 

[On The Rocks]

No. And if he does, there's going to be some serious non-Julio value in that passing game that no one is valuing right now.

That's for certain...I think it will be pretty evenly distributed with a mild renaissance for Roddy.

I'm not counting on more than 75/825/5 from Roddy - and that's being generous.

 

[FF Ninja]

This is highly unlikely. Passing attempts should decrease if the running game can be less abysmal than last year.

Do you see any signs of that so far?

It can't be worse, right?

Also, we can't just pencil in extra TE yards... the TEs only got like 55 targets last year. Tamme isn't going to put up 500 yards on 55 targets. So even if there are 632 pass attempts again, additional TE targets are going to come at the expense of another position.

 

[Meatwad Reloaded]

People who are smart fantasy players understand that last year is last year. I fully expect Ryan to bounce back this year and be a top qb. He is a great value at where he is being drafted.

 

[(HULK)]

I think Tamme, Hankerson and Hardy can be productive (not enough to be fantasy valuable, but enough to boost Ryan). Hankerson was a really good athlete and a high draft pick. WRs are often late bloomers I would not totally write him off.

Hankerson is terrible. FYI.

 

[jumper]

People who are smart fantasy players understand that last year is last year. I fully expect Ryan to bounce back this year and be a top qb. He is a great value at where he is being drafted.

Define "Top QB." Top 3, 5, 10? Personally I'd put him in tier that's everyone after Wilson through Stafford, and they're all getting drafted around the 7th - 9th round region. I could make a case for any of them being anything from QB1 down to QB20 and certainly don't think they represent "great" value where the are.

 

[FF Ninja]

People who are smart fantasy players understand that last year is last year. I fully expect Ryan to bounce back this year and be a top qb. He is a great value at where he is being drafted.

Bounce back? His numbers have been very consistent the last 3 years. Are you expecting an aberration?

 

[LOCO]

Pass Attempts in Kyle Shanahan's systems, and the QB's involved.

2015: 502 pass attempts (Hoyer, Manziel, Shaw)
2013: 611 pass attempts (RG3, Cousins)
2012: 442 pass attempts (RG3, Cousins)
2011: 591 pass attempts (Grossman, Beck)
2010: 605 pass attempts (McNabb/Grossman)
2009: 583 pass attempts (Schaub)
2008: 555 pass attempts (Schaub/Rosenfels)

2015: 502 pass attempts (Hoyer, Manziel, Shaw)
2013: 611 pass attempts (RG3, Cousins)
2012: 442 pass attempts (RG3, Cousins)
2011: 591 pass attempts (Grossman, Beck)
2010: 605 pass attempts (McNabb/Grossman)
2009: 583 pass attempts (Schaub)
2008: 555 pass attempts (Schaub/Rosenfels)

Matt Ryan’s Pass attempts in recent years:

2014: 628
2013: 651
2012: 615
2011: 566

600 attempts / 425 complete. 12 yards avg = 5100 yards.

 

[CapnJB]

If you're going to do it. Do it right.

*creates worm hole*

------------------------------------------------------------

ok, realize that i am a falcon fan, but also realize that this is an un-biased opinion. these r my true thoughts on matty gun this year, and i fully expect him to prove me right.

first of all, there is no quarterback, and there hasnt been since warner in 1999 w/ as many weapons in the passing game as mattyy has this year. julio jones is the most polished wr in football, and roddy white is going to show this year how elite of a wr he really is. these guys both will have 12-15 tds each, and both will eclipse 1,300 yds receiving, w/ rod closer to 1,600. hardy in the slot is absolutely impossible to cover 1 on 1 w/out a shut down corner, and u cannott afford that w/ the 2 elite wrs lined up outside. hardy will be good for 500-700 yds receiving this year, and a couple of trick plays as well. freeman out of the back field will be a huge upgrade over jackson between the 20s, and he has developed into an outstanding receiver and they will find ways to get him the ball through the air. he should get 400-600 yds receiving. tamme is a huge upgrade over gonzales as the starting te. tamme is a polished wr, and can make tough catches and keep a linebacker honest at all times, giving ryan more time to throw w/ less blitzes. i look for tamme to accumulate 450-600 yds receiving as well. of course the other backs, fullbacks, and tes, and wrs will get a handfull of catches and yds as well.when u add all of these #s together, u start to realize that matty ryan will have some serious weapons to throw to this season. he is healthy, confident, playing for a contract, and poised to take this offense to the next level. there will be no defense capable of stopping, or even slowing down this juggernaut.bottom line, ryan can break the all time passing yds record if he stays healthy, and im boldly predicting him for 5,000+ yards passing this season

*drops mic*

 

[chad in Indy]

If you're going to do it. Do it right.

*creates worm hole*

------------------------------------------------------------

ok, realize that i am a falcon fan, but also realize that this is an un-biased opinion. these r my true thoughts on matty gun this year, and i fully expect him to prove me right.

first of all, there is no quarterback, and there hasnt been since warner in 1999 w/ as many weapons in the passing game as mattyy has this year. julio jones is the most polished wr in football, and roddy white is going to show this year how elite of a wr he really is. these guys both will have 12-15 tds each, and both will eclipse 1,300 yds receiving, w/ rod closer to 1,600. hardy in the slot is absolutely impossible to cover 1 on 1 w/out a shut down corner, and u cannott afford that w/ the 2 elite wrs lined up outside. hardy will be good for 500-700 yds receiving this year, and a couple of trick plays as well. freeman out of the back field will be a huge upgrade over jackson between the 20s, and he has developed into an outstanding receiver and they will find ways to get him the ball through the air. he should get 400-600 yds receiving. tamme is a huge upgrade over gonzales as the starting te. tamme is a polished wr, and can make tough catches and keep a linebacker honest at all times, giving ryan more time to throw w/ less blitzes. i look for tamme to accumulate 450-600 yds receiving as well. of course the other backs, fullbacks, and tes, and wrs will get a handfull of catches and yds as well.when u add all of these #s together, u start to realize that matty ryan will have some serious weapons to throw to this season. he is healthy, confident, playing for a contract, and poised to take this offense to the next level. there will be no defense capable of stopping, or even slowing down this juggernaut.bottom line, ryan can break the all time passing yds record if he stays healthy, and im boldly predicting him for 5,000+ yards passing this season

*drops mic*

So Roddy is going to have a career year in all categories as the #2 WR and at the age of 33? I'll take the under.

 

[Hankmoody]

If you're going to do it. Do it right.

*creates worm hole*

------------------------------------------------------------

ok, realize that i am a falcon fan, but also realize that this is an un-biased opinion. these r my true thoughts on matty gun this year, and i fully expect him to prove me right.

first of all, there is no quarterback, and there hasnt been since warner in 1999 w/ as many weapons in the passing game as mattyy has this year. julio jones is the most polished wr in football, and roddy white is going to show this year how elite of a wr he really is. these guys both will have 12-15 tds each, and both will eclipse 1,300 yds receiving, w/ rod closer to 1,600. hardy in the slot is absolutely impossible to cover 1 on 1 w/out a shut down corner, and u cannott afford that w/ the 2 elite wrs lined up outside. hardy will be good for 500-700 yds receiving this year, and a couple of trick plays as well. freeman out of the back field will be a huge upgrade over jackson between the 20s, and he has developed into an outstanding receiver and they will find ways to get him the ball through the air. he should get 400-600 yds receiving. tamme is a huge upgrade over gonzales as the starting te. tamme is a polished wr, and can make tough catches and keep a linebacker honest at all times, giving ryan more time to throw w/ less blitzes. i look for tamme to accumulate 450-600 yds receiving as well. of course the other backs, fullbacks, and tes, and wrs will get a handfull of catches and yds as well.when u add all of these #s together, u start to realize that matty ryan will have some serious weapons to throw to this season. he is healthy, confident, playing for a contract, and poised to take this offense to the next level. there will be no defense capable of stopping, or even slowing down this juggernaut.bottom line, ryan can break the all time passing yds record if he stays healthy, and im boldly predicting him for 5,000+ yards passing this season

*drops mic*

You should drop whatever it is you're smoking too. Or at least share.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I also like the Falcons offense this year but Tamme is one player I think is going to disappoint. He has had back-to-back disappointing seasons and that was WITH Peyton, who Tamme had his best seasons with. If Tamme still has anything relative to add, why did it not happen last year when he had opportunities?

I do LOVE me some Julio this season. My #1 WR in 2015.

 

[FF Ninja]

Pass Attempts in Kyle Shanahan's systems, and the QB's involved.

2015: 502 pass attempts (Hoyer, Manziel, Shaw)

2013: 611 pass attempts (RG3, Cousins)

2012: 442 pass attempts (RG3, Cousins)

2011: 591 pass attempts (Grossman, Beck)

2010: 605 pass attempts (McNabb/Grossman)

2009: 583 pass attempts (Schaub)

2008: 555 pass attempts (Schaub/Rosenfels)

2015: 502 pass attempts (Hoyer, Manziel, Shaw)

2013: 611 pass attempts (RG3, Cousins)

2012: 442 pass attempts (RG3, Cousins)

2011: 591 pass attempts (Grossman, Beck)

2010: 605 pass attempts (McNabb/Grossman)

2009: 583 pass attempts (Schaub)

2008: 555 pass attempts (Schaub/Rosenfels)

Matt Ryan’s Pass attempts in recent years:

2014: 628

2013: 651

2012: 615

2011: 566

600 attempts / 425 complete. 12 yards avg = 5100 yards.

I like the effort. You showed your work all the way until you went off the deep end and predicted 8.5 YPA for Ryan.

A more realistic projection would be 600 att x 7.5 YPA = 4500 yards.

 

[LittlePhatty]

My league doesn't give points for pre-game warmups.

 

[TDorBust]

I have one word to describe this:

Fallacy

As for your math is not taking into account more reps =/= x% more yards

You can't simply say give Ryan an extra 50-100 throws and his completion % and yards/pass will remain constant.

 

[shader]

I think the loss of Mike Smith has to be worth 500 yards at least. That guy was a really conservative and boring coach.

 

[JaxBill]

Actually I think the scheduel works against Ryan here. You have a former DC as a first year HC. Track record says that they'll gameplan conservatively and if they get a lead, they'll worry more about the clock than putting more points on the board.

Now look at the opposing offenses:

CAR (no KB) x2

TB (rookie QB) x 2

NO(No Graham) x2

Texans (QB?)

Jags (unproven QB)

Titans (rookie QB)

Of those 9 games, how many is this head coach going to come into the week saying, "We need to put 30+ on the board to win"?

 

[JaxBill]

I think the loss of Mike Smith has to be worth 500 yards at least. That guy was a really conservative and boring coach.

He may have been conservative in end game decisions, but the Falcons passed 64% of the time last year (third in the league)

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-play-pct

 

[BroadwayG]

Actually I think the scheduel works against Ryan here. You have a former DC as a first year HC. Track record says that they'll gameplan conservatively and if they get a lead, they'll worry more about the clock than putting more points on the board.

Now look at the opposing offenses:

CAR (no KB) x2

TB (rookie QB) x 2

NO(No Graham) x2

Texans (QB?)

Jags (unproven QB)

Titans (rookie QB)

Of those 9 games, how many is this head coach going to come into the week saying, "We need to put 30+ on the board to win"?

All of them

 

[psychobillies]

If you're going to do it. Do it right.

*creates worm hole*

------------------------------------------------------------

ok, realize that i am a falcon fan, but also realize that this is an un-biased opinion. these r my true thoughts on matty gun this year, and i fully expect him to prove me right.

first of all, there is no quarterback, and there hasnt been since warner in 1999 w/ as many weapons in the passing game as mattyy has this year. julio jones is the most polished wr in football, and roddy white is going to show this year how elite of a wr he really is. these guys both will have 12-15 tds each, and both will eclipse 1,300 yds receiving, w/ rod closer to 1,600. hardy in the slot is absolutely impossible to cover 1 on 1 w/out a shut down corner, and u cannott afford that w/ the 2 elite wrs lined up outside. hardy will be good for 500-700 yds receiving this year, and a couple of trick plays as well. freeman out of the back field will be a huge upgrade over jackson between the 20s, and he has developed into an outstanding receiver and they will find ways to get him the ball through the air. he should get 400-600 yds receiving. tamme is a huge upgrade over gonzales as the starting te. tamme is a polished wr, and can make tough catches and keep a linebacker honest at all times, giving ryan more time to throw w/ less blitzes. i look for tamme to accumulate 450-600 yds receiving as well. of course the other backs, fullbacks, and tes, and wrs will get a handfull of catches and yds as well.when u add all of these #s together, u start to realize that matty ryan will have some serious weapons to throw to this season. he is healthy, confident, playing for a contract, and poised to take this offense to the next level. there will be no defense capable of stopping, or even slowing down this juggernaut.bottom line, ryan can break the all time passing yds record if he stays healthy, and im boldly predicting him for 5,000+ yards passing this season

*drops mic*

Jesus man, thanks for the unbiased opinion. Atlanta has Julio and Ryan and that's about it. Fandom is a great thing, and everyone is excited this time of year, but be honest with me, did you have a similar prediction last year? I really love the part about Tamme being a huge upgrade over the greatest TE of all time.

 

[Freelove]

"Showing your work," here is an exercise in futility.

You've got a rookie HC we have zero offensive track record for, a veteran WR recovered from one injury and dealing with a slightly different, hopefully less bothersome one, an All Pro caliber WR we hope will stay healthy for a change, a new (yet old) TE, a completely unsettled OL, RB, and D, and a new OC with no track record with any of these players and a reputation for being "adapable."

If you're taking all that and trying to pin down attempt, completion, and YPA data, you're off your rocker.

What you can say with certainty is that Ryan has a reliable, recent history of being in the upper 4000's, that his targets are about as healthy as they've ever been for him, that there's no specific reason to downgrade him based on Quinn or Shanahan, and that the top 3 guys in the NFL in terms of yardage, since 2012, have averaged about exactly 5000 yards per year.

If you think Ryan could be among them, 5000 is a pretty good guess.

Take what you know, slap him in a tier, and be done with it.

 

[CapnJB]

If you're going to do it. Do it right.

*creates worm hole*

------------------------------------------------------------

ok, realize that i am a falcon fan, but also realize that this is an un-biased opinion. these r my true thoughts on matty gun this year, and i fully expect him to prove me right.

first of all, there is no quarterback, and there hasnt been since warner in 1999 w/ as many weapons in the passing game as mattyy has this year. julio jones is the most polished wr in football, and roddy white is going to show this year how elite of a wr he really is. these guys both will have 12-15 tds each, and both will eclipse 1,300 yds receiving, w/ rod closer to 1,600. hardy in the slot is absolutely impossible to cover 1 on 1 w/out a shut down corner, and u cannott afford that w/ the 2 elite wrs lined up outside. hardy will be good for 500-700 yds receiving this year, and a couple of trick plays as well. freeman out of the back field will be a huge upgrade over jackson between the 20s, and he has developed into an outstanding receiver and they will find ways to get him the ball through the air. he should get 400-600 yds receiving. tamme is a huge upgrade over gonzales as the starting te. tamme is a polished wr, and can make tough catches and keep a linebacker honest at all times, giving ryan more time to throw w/ less blitzes. i look for tamme to accumulate 450-600 yds receiving as well. of course the other backs, fullbacks, and tes, and wrs will get a handfull of catches and yds as well.when u add all of these #s together, u start to realize that matty ryan will have some serious weapons to throw to this season. he is healthy, confident, playing for a contract, and poised to take this offense to the next level. there will be no defense capable of stopping, or even slowing down this juggernaut.bottom line, ryan can break the all time passing yds record if he stays healthy, and im boldly predicting him for 5,000+ yards passing this season

*drops mic*

Jesus man, thanks for the unbiased opinion. Atlanta has Julio and Ryan and that's about it. Fandom is a great thing, and everyone is excited this time of year, but be honest with me, did you have a similar prediction last year? I really love the part about Tamme being a huge upgrade over the greatest TE of all time.

Heh... this was a reboot of an epic post made on another (at the time, 2006) popular FF website about why Tommy Maddox was going to throw for 5000+ yards. This is that exact post updated with current Falcons players. I guess the amount of wine in me made me think that there were enough old timers here (that may have migrated from that other site) to remember that thread.

I guess the wine was wrong.

*kicks a rock*

 

[jumper]

IIRC Ryan has never been above QB7 for a season. But then again, his competition isn't standing still either. Luck and Rodgers are likely locks for QB1 and 2, and Big Ben and Russell will almost certainly be in top 5. Once you get beyond them, Manning and Brees have begun their decline and Brady out for the first 4 games. Plus I could make a case for ranking Cam / Romo / Ryan / Eli / Stafford outside the Top 10 just as easily as inside the Top 10. To me the 20ish extra points I'd get for the season for him throwing 5k vs. 4,500 yards isn't going to definitively jump him over the Cams and Romos in his price range, but I'm willing to listen to arguments why I should pick Ryan over the others. I'm pretty determined I want at least one guy from the Russell through Tannenill tier, but don't want to pay for the first one off the board nor want to have to overpay to get the last one either.

 

[Chaka]

I don't think there is much room for improvement for Ryan in pass attempts or completion % where he was top 5 last year so that would seem to put a damper on the thought of a 5k season.

HOWEVER Kyle Shanahan coached QBs seem to average around 12.2-12.4 yards per completion and that is where Ryan certainly has room for improvement. He was at 11.3 last year and has a career 11.2 YPC, if Ryan gets him to the 12 range then 5k would be attainable.

But even with that big of an improvement in YPC it is a little difficult to imagine Ryan topping the 628 attempts.

I think best case scenario (absolute best case) happens if the Falcons attempt 628 passes again, Ryan matches his career high completion % (68.6%) AND Shanahan's system gets Ryan up to 12.2 YPC which would put Ryan at 5256 yards. That is a lot of pieces falling into place to make it happen.

I think his best shot for improvement is going to be with TDs. They don't really have a hammer for the goal line and Shanahan is pretty tricky in that area of the field, so I could see a few FB/TE out in the flat type scores from down near the goal line that may have been rush attempts in the past.

 

[bigmarc27]

If you're going to do it. Do it right.

*creates worm hole*

------------------------------------------------------------

ok, realize that i am a falcon fan, but also realize that this is an un-biased opinion. these r my true thoughts on matty gun this year, and i fully expect him to prove me right.

first of all, there is no quarterback, and there hasnt been since warner in 1999 w/ as many weapons in the passing game as mattyy has this year. julio jones is the most polished wr in football, and roddy white is going to show this year how elite of a wr he really is. these guys both will have 12-15 tds each, and both will eclipse 1,300 yds receiving, w/ rod closer to 1,600. hardy in the slot is absolutely impossible to cover 1 on 1 w/out a shut down corner, and u cannott afford that w/ the 2 elite wrs lined up outside. hardy will be good for 500-700 yds receiving this year, and a couple of trick plays as well. freeman out of the back field will be a huge upgrade over jackson between the 20s, and he has developed into an outstanding receiver and they will find ways to get him the ball through the air. he should get 400-600 yds receiving. tamme is a huge upgrade over gonzales as the starting te. tamme is a polished wr, and can make tough catches and keep a linebacker honest at all times, giving ryan more time to throw w/ less blitzes. i look for tamme to accumulate 450-600 yds receiving as well. of course the other backs, fullbacks, and tes, and wrs will get a handfull of catches and yds as well.when u add all of these #s together, u start to realize that matty ryan will have some serious weapons to throw to this season. he is healthy, confident, playing for a contract, and poised to take this offense to the next level. there will be no defense capable of stopping, or even slowing down this juggernaut.bottom line, ryan can break the all time passing yds record if he stays healthy, and im boldly predicting him for 5,000+ yards passing this season

*drops mic*

Jesus man, thanks for the unbiased opinion. Atlanta has Julio and Ryan and that's about it. Fandom is a great thing, and everyone is excited this time of year, but be honest with me, did you have a similar prediction last year? I really love the part about Tamme being a huge upgrade over the greatest TE of all time.

Heh... this was a reboot of an epic post made on another (at the time, 2006) popular FF website about why Tommy Maddox was going to throw for 5000+ yards. This is that exact post updated with current Falcons players. I guess the amount of wine in me made me think that there were enough old timers here (that may have migrated from that other site) to remember that thread.

I guess the wine was wrong.

*kicks a rock*

I remember it... difference is 5K yards is relatively attainable nowadays.

 

[BroadwayG]

IIRC Ryan has never been above QB7 for a season. But then again, his competition isn't standing still either. Luck and Rodgers are likely locks for QB1 and 2, and Big Ben and Russell will almost certainly be in top 5. Once you get beyond them, Manning and Brees have begun their decline and Brady out for the first 4 games. Plus I could make a case for ranking Cam / Romo / Ryan / Eli / Stafford outside the Top 10 just as easily as inside the Top 10. To me the 20ish extra points I'd get for the season for him throwing 5k vs. 4,500 yards isn't going to definitively jump him over the Cams and Romos in his price range, but I'm willing to listen to arguments why I should pick Ryan over the others. I'm pretty determined I want at least one guy from the Russell through Tannenill tier, but don't want to pay for the first one off the board nor want to have to overpay to get the last one either.

The only season the Ryan/Julio show has finished below QB8 is when Julio only played 5 games. He still threw for 4500/26. He hasn't missed a game since 2009. BigBen has finished top 10 once in the past 5 seasons. Funny how recency bias works, huh? It's en vogue to poopoo Ryan right now because he doesn't have the upside of a top dog finish, citing his QB7 max, but I'll take the absolute lock for mid-QB1 production in the 8th round and take my risks elsewhere.

 

[FF Ninja]

IIRC Ryan has never been above QB7 for a season. But then again, his competition isn't standing still either. Luck and Rodgers are likely locks for QB1 and 2, and Big Ben and Russell will almost certainly be in top 5. Once you get beyond them, Manning and Brees have begun their decline and Brady out for the first 4 games. Plus I could make a case for ranking Cam / Romo / Ryan / Eli / Stafford outside the Top 10 just as easily as inside the Top 10. To me the 20ish extra points I'd get for the season for him throwing 5k vs. 4,500 yards isn't going to definitively jump him over the Cams and Romos in his price range, but I'm willing to listen to arguments why I should pick Ryan over the others. I'm pretty determined I want at least one guy from the Russell through Tannenill tier, but don't want to pay for the first one off the board nor want to have to overpay to get the last one either.

The only season the Ryan/Julio show has finished below QB8 is when Julio only played 5 games. He still threw for 4500/26. He hasn't missed a game since 2009. BigBen has finished top 10 once in the past 5 seasons. Funny how recency bias works, huh? It's en vogue to poopoo Ryan right now because he doesn't have the upside of a top dog finish, citing his QB7 max, but I'll take the absolute lock for mid-QB1 production in the 8th round and take my risks elsewhere.

I generally agree with your take on recency bias, but you're being a little short sighted here.

Big Ben's offense isn't the same as it was during most of his career. In his first 9 seasons, the most he ever threw the ball was 513 times. In the last two seasons, he's finished QB8 and QB6 throwing the ball 584 and 608 times respectively.

Matt Ryan has averaged 606 passing attempts in the past five seasons, finishing 10, 8, 6, 10, 7.

For their careers, Ben averages 7.89 YPA and 1 TD every 19.8 passes while Ryan averages 7.19 YPA and 1 TD every 21.6 passes. They are both poised to throw the ball about 600 times in 2015.

Currently Ben has an ADP of QB6 while Ryan has an ADP of QB8. This appears to be totally fair and not to be blamed on recency bias.

You still think they are unfairly ranked? Ben has operated under Haley for only 3 seasons, but they've all been pretty good. He missed quite a bit of time the first season and had some growing pains, but if you extrapolate out his 448 attempts to 600, he'd have 33.5 TDs and 4356 yards. Keep in mind Ben typically rushes for more yards and TDs than Ryan - not a ton, but it is worth noting.

Personally, I'm a little wary of Ben this year due to the Steeler's schedule, but I don't think his ranking 2 spots above Ryan is incorrect. Ryan will have to learn a new offense this year which always presents risk. His top target is also not the most durable guy. Ryan's statistics have always been propped up by league leading (usually top 5) pass attempts and a stellar cast of receivers. Put him on an offense with only 500 passing attempts and mediocre WRs and he'd be mentioned in the same breath as Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton.

 

[CapnJB]

I remember it... difference is 5K yards is relatively attainable nowadays.

Tell that to the booze!!!

 

[BroadwayG]

If Matt Ryan gets traded to the Titans, don't draft him in the 8th round. If you can extrapolate your starting QB for extra points when he underperforms or misses time, Matt Ryan might not be for you. Otherwise, you can count on him for a QB8 finish.

 

[FF Ninja]

If Matt Ryan gets traded to the Titans, don't draft him in the 8th round. If you can extrapolate your starting QB for extra points when he underperforms or misses time, Matt Ryan might not be for you. Otherwise, you can count on him for a QB8 finish.

Which is exactly his ADP, so why do you claim Ben is ranked over him due to recency bias when you agree with Ryan's ranking?

 

[BroadwayG]

If Matt Ryan gets traded to the Titans, don't draft him in the 8th round. If you can extrapolate your starting QB for extra points when he underperforms or misses time, Matt Ryan might not be for you. Otherwise, you can count on him for a QB8 finish.

Which is exactly his ADP, so why do you claim Ben is ranked over him due to recency bias when you agree with Ryan's ranking?

Because Ben's only top 10 finish in the past 5 years was last year.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00.htm#fantasy::none

Ben is also going closer to Russell than Ryan is going to Ben as far as ADP goes. So you have to pay extra to chase last year's abberation points from his two 6 TD games, or go for Ryan a round and a half later who you know exactly what you're going to get.

If I'm chasing fictitious points, give me Eli or Rivers even later than Ryan over Ben well before Ryan.

 

[psychobillies]

If you're going to do it. Do it right.

*creates worm hole*

------------------------------------------------------------

ok, realize that i am a falcon fan, but also realize that this is an un-biased opinion. these r my true thoughts on matty gun this year, and i fully expect him to prove me right.

first of all, there is no quarterback, and there hasnt been since warner in 1999 w/ as many weapons in the passing game as mattyy has this year. julio jones is the most polished wr in football, and roddy white is going to show this year how elite of a wr he really is. these guys both will have 12-15 tds each, and both will eclipse 1,300 yds receiving, w/ rod closer to 1,600. hardy in the slot is absolutely impossible to cover 1 on 1 w/out a shut down corner, and u cannott afford that w/ the 2 elite wrs lined up outside. hardy will be good for 500-700 yds receiving this year, and a couple of trick plays as well. freeman out of the back field will be a huge upgrade over jackson between the 20s, and he has developed into an outstanding receiver and they will find ways to get him the ball through the air. he should get 400-600 yds receiving. tamme is a huge upgrade over gonzales as the starting te. tamme is a polished wr, and can make tough catches and keep a linebacker honest at all times, giving ryan more time to throw w/ less blitzes. i look for tamme to accumulate 450-600 yds receiving as well. of course the other backs, fullbacks, and tes, and wrs will get a handfull of catches and yds as well.when u add all of these #s together, u start to realize that matty ryan will have some serious weapons to throw to this season. he is healthy, confident, playing for a contract, and poised to take this offense to the next level. there will be no defense capable of stopping, or even slowing down this juggernaut.bottom line, ryan can break the all time passing yds record if he stays healthy, and im boldly predicting him for 5,000+ yards passing this season

*drops mic*

Jesus man, thanks for the unbiased opinion. Atlanta has Julio and Ryan and that's about it. Fandom is a great thing, and everyone is excited this time of year, but be honest with me, did you have a similar prediction last year? I really love the part about Tamme being a huge upgrade over the greatest TE of all time.

Heh... this was a reboot of an epic post made on another (at the time, 2006) popular FF website about why Tommy Maddox was going to throw for 5000+ yards. This is that exact post updated with current Falcons players. I guess the amount of wine in me made me think that there were enough old timers here (that may have migrated from that other site) to remember that thread.

I guess the wine was wrong.

*kicks a rock*

I should remember it. I owned Maddox in a few leagues. I don't though, but you got me for sure. Great pull. I thought you were nuts.

 

[FF Ninja]

If Matt Ryan gets traded to the Titans, don't draft him in the 8th round. If you can extrapolate your starting QB for extra points when he underperforms or misses time, Matt Ryan might not be for you. Otherwise, you can count on him for a QB8 finish.

Which is exactly his ADP, so why do you claim Ben is ranked over him due to recency bias when you agree with Ryan's ranking?

Because Ben's only top 10 finish in the past 5 years was last year.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00.htm#fantasy::none

Ben is also going closer to Russell than Ryan is going to Ben as far as ADP goes. So you have to pay extra to chase last year's abberation points from his two 6 TD games, or go for Ryan a round and a half later who you know exactly what you're going to get.

If I'm chasing fictitious points, give me Eli or Rivers even later than Ryan over Ben well before Ryan.

I feel like you didn't read a single thing I wrote in Post #49

Also, what kind of scoring do they use? FBG scoring has Ben ranking top 10 five times: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/player-all-info.php?id=RoetBe00&tab=1

 

[ImTheScientist]

no.

 

[BroadwayG]

If Matt Ryan gets traded to the Titans, don't draft him in the 8th round. If you can extrapolate your starting QB for extra points when he underperforms or misses time, Matt Ryan might not be for you. Otherwise, you can count on him for a QB8 finish.

Which is exactly his ADP, so why do you claim Ben is ranked over him due to recency bias when you agree with Ryan's ranking?

Because Ben's only top 10 finish in the past 5 years was last year.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00.htm#fantasy::none

Ben is also going closer to Russell than Ryan is going to Ben as far as ADP goes. So you have to pay extra to chase last year's abberation points from his two 6 TD games, or go for Ryan a round and a half later who you know exactly what you're going to get.

If I'm chasing fictitious points, give me Eli or Rivers even later than Ryan over Ben well before Ryan.

I feel like you didn't read a single thing I wrote in Post #49

Also, what kind of scoring do they use? FBG scoring has Ben ranking top 10 five times: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/player-all-info.php?id=RoetBe00&tab=1

So let me get this straight. In the past 5 years, the only time he's finished QB6 was last year, his only 30TD season was last year, his only 600 attempt season was last year, his only 65% completion rate was last year, his only 4500 yard season was last year. And his ranking of QB5 in redraft isn't recency bias?

 

[Van Dyman]

If Matt Ryan gets traded to the Titans, don't draft him in the 8th round. If you can extrapolate your starting QB for extra points when he underperforms or misses time, Matt Ryan might not be for you. Otherwise, you can count on him for a QB8 finish.

Which is exactly his ADP, so why do you claim Ben is ranked over him due to recency bias when you agree with Ryan's ranking?

Because Ben's only top 10 finish in the past 5 years was last year.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00.htm#fantasy::none

Ben is also going closer to Russell than Ryan is going to Ben as far as ADP goes. So you have to pay extra to chase last year's abberation points from his two 6 TD games, or go for Ryan a round and a half later who you know exactly what you're going to get.

If I'm chasing fictitious points, give me Eli or Rivers even later than Ryan over Ben well before Ryan.

I feel like you didn't read a single thing I wrote in Post #49

Also, what kind of scoring do they use? FBG scoring has Ben ranking top 10 five times: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/player-all-info.php?id=RoetBe00&tab=1

So let me get this straight. In the past 5 years, the only time he's finished QB6 was last year, his only 30TD season was last year, his only 600 attempt season was last year, his only 65% completion rate was last year, his only 4500 yard season was last year. And his ranking of QB5 in redraft isn't recency bias?

The Steelers did not have this combination of offensive system, weapons, and defensive implosion 5 years ago. Recognizing the new situation and recency bias are not the same thing.

Having said that, I do think there could be a bit of recency bias, but that's not why he's ranked higher than Ryan.

 

[BroadwayG]

Ok, forget I mentioned bias. I'll just call it ignoring injury history and historical performance levels while using a recent statistical anomoly to describe future performance.

 

[FF Ninja]

If Matt Ryan gets traded to the Titans, don't draft him in the 8th round. If you can extrapolate your starting QB for extra points when he underperforms or misses time, Matt Ryan might not be for you. Otherwise, you can count on him for a QB8 finish.

Which is exactly his ADP, so why do you claim Ben is ranked over him due to recency bias when you agree with Ryan's ranking?

Because Ben's only top 10 finish in the past 5 years was last year.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00.htm#fantasy::none

Ben is also going closer to Russell than Ryan is going to Ben as far as ADP goes. So you have to pay extra to chase last year's abberation points from his two 6 TD games, or go for Ryan a round and a half later who you know exactly what you're going to get.

If I'm chasing fictitious points, give me Eli or Rivers even later than Ryan over Ben well before Ryan.

I feel like you didn't read a single thing I wrote in Post #49

Also, what kind of scoring do they use? FBG scoring has Ben ranking top 10 five times: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/player-all-info.php?id=RoetBe00&tab=1

So let me get this straight. In the past 5 years, the only time he's finished QB6 was last year, his only 30TD season was last year, his only 600 attempt season was last year, his only 65% completion rate was last year, his only 4500 yard season was last year. And his ranking of QB5 in redraft isn't recency bias?

GD it, man... read post #49. Don't be dense. And stop yammering about the past 5 years. As I said, since he got a new OC, Ben has been tearing it up the past three years. He missed some games the first year, but finished QB8 and QB6 the past two years according to FBG scoring. If he'd played a full season in 2012* (he only threw 78% of his team's passes), he'd have likely been very close to the same numbers as the past two years. He's been remarkably productive and consistent under Haley.

*I'm sure the team threw less with a backup, but if Ben had throw all 571 PIT passes, it would extrapolate to 32 TDs. So in the past 3 years, he's averaged 7.6 YPA and 31 TDs per 16 full games. If you think he doesn't belong at QB6, I'm all ears. I'm wary of his schedule, but to argue against him implies you either think he's going to throw substantially less than 600 PA or he's going to deviate from his averages (YPA + TD/PA).

 

[BroadwayG]

I have to yammer about the past 5 years, if I only yammer about last year like you do, it's recency bias whatever it is you want to call only looking at recent results.