QB Matt Ryan, IND (2 Viewers)

[ffmail4me]

As a Washington fan it will be interesting to compare what he and Wentz do this year. If Washington really just wants a 1 year band-aid then Ryan is the much better choice, if they thought Wentz could be the long term answer then I guess I understand why you go Wentz over Ryan.  I personally have my doubts Wentz will play for more than 1 season in DC. Congrats to Colts fans, definitely an upgrade for you. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Since Ryan was due a $7.5 million roster bonus today, I don't see a way for the Falcons to designate this as a post 6/1 trade. That means they will eat $40M against the cap and now are eating $62M in cap space this season.

They may as well get that cap hit out of the way in what is assuredly a lost season.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm legitimately happy for Matt Ryan. He goes to a decent organization with a ready-to-win team. He's been a stand-up dude his whole career, and I'm glad to see him have a chance to compete instead of sinking with the Titanic that is the Falcons right now. 

 

[travdogg]

Falcons have a chance to be 1-16 bad. 

Honestly, I don't think they finish last in their division. Carolina is every bit as bad, including at QB, and has nowhere near the draft capital Atlanta has. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Still can't believe they took a TE in the top 5

Pitts might be very well worth it in the coming years. I don't see it as a terrible decision at the time, though it remains to be seen what Mac Jones upside is. Jury is still out on Fields, too. 

 

[massraider]

Sure - obviously talking about his chances to win. I'm guessing that New Orleans was willing to pay him pretty well also.

I'm not begrudging him from getting the best deal he can - that wasn't really my point.

New Orleans, for the foreseeable future, is pushing money to the future, they will continue to lose young mid range players, because they cannot afford them. And then they wouldn't have 1st round picks to provide young blue chip talent. 

They have serious money problems. 

 

[travdogg]

Pitts might be very well worth it in the coming years. I don't see it as a terrible decision at the time, though it remains to be seen what Mac Jones upside is. Jury is still out on Fields, too. 

Agreed. Pitts just had a very good rookie season, with the 2nd most yards in history for a rookie TE. Pitts was a more productive pass catcher than any rookie other than Chase. He's already a top-8 NFL TE, and that's probably his floor. 

I'd have been curious to see Fields with Arthur Smith, sitting and learning behind Ryan for a year, but I'm not gonna knock Atlanta much for that pick. 

Falcons have 5 picks in the top 82 now. In a division with Carolina, and even New Orleans(who could crater without Payton) I'm not sure Atlanta is going to be down for long.

 

[Anarchy99]

Pitts might be very well worth it in the coming years. I don't see it as a terrible decision at the time, though it remains to be seen what Mac Jones upside is. Jury is still out on Fields, too. 

I will spare you the long analysis that I posted previously (and other nerdy analytic types in the media agreed), but even if Pitts turns into a HOFer, other positions are far more valuable as Top 5 picks that it is nearly impossible to justify the pick. The same holds true for RB and WR that early. Any of those skill positions would need someone consistently putting up 1500/12 for 10 years to warrant the selection. Multi-season starters at QB, OT, CB, and defensive pass rushers have much more impact than a very good TE. The fact of the matter is, a TE just doesn't movie the needle in terms of an impact from game to game.

 

[JoeJoe88]

The fact of the matter is, a TE just doesn't movie the needle in terms of an impact from game to game

I’m not sure the Chiefs, Niners and Ravens would agree. Especially Kittle. Good Lord, that man does everything. And take away Andrews from Lamar and see how happy he is. 

 

[massraider]

I will spare you the long analysis that I posted previously (and other nerdy analytic types in the media agreed), but even if Pitts turns into a HOFer, other positions are far more valuable as Top 5 picks that it is nearly impossible to justify the pick. The same holds true for RB and WR that early. Any of those skill positions would need someone consistently putting up 1500/12 for 10 years to warrant the selection. Multi-season starters at QB, OT, CB, and defensive pass rushers have much more impact than a very good TE. The fact of the matter is, a TE just doesn't movie the needle in terms of an impact from game to game.

It moves the needle more than a player at a premium position that sucks. 

The Colts took a HOF-level OG with the #6 in 2018. The Jets took Sam Darnold with the #3 pick. They should have taken the OG. 

The nerdy analytic types always seem to forget that some other positions have busts.

 

[Desert_Power]

Honestly, I don't think they finish last in their division. Carolina is every bit as bad, including at QB, and has nowhere near the draft capital Atlanta has. 

Not really. Despite injuries, the Panthers gave up the second fewest yards in the NFL last year (almost 1k less than the Falcons). They also have CMC and have already added two new OL starters.

 

[travdogg]

I’m not sure the Chiefs, Niners and Ravens would agree. Especially Kittle. Good Lord, that man does everything. And take away Andrews from Lamar and see how happy he is. 

TE is grossly underrated if you have a great one, and are every bit as valuable as a great WR, which are also underrated. 

In my opinion positional value looks like:

QB

WR, TE, CB, S

OL, DL, LB

RB

At least as far as value of great players goes. If I were to arrange by position that is hurts most to have a crappy player at I'd say:

QB

DL, OL, CB, S

WR, TE, LB

RB 

You can by with a bad TE and just not use the position as more than a blocker, but you gain a lot if you have a great one. Likewise, you don't need a great OL, or DL, but you can't have a bad one. 

 

[Desert_Power]

Pitts might be very well worth it in the coming years. I don't see it as a terrible decision at the time, though it remains to be seen what Mac Jones upside is. Jury is still out on Fields, too. 

Just screams luxury pick to me, particularly with guys like Sewell and Parsons out there.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It moves the needle more than a player at a premium position that sucks. 

The Colts took a HOF-level OG with the #6 in 2018. The Jets took Sam Darnold with the #3 pick. They should have taken the OG. 

The nerdy analytic types always seem to forget that some other positions have busts.

Yes the whole "premium position" thing gets overblown. Hitting on the picks is far more important.

 

[Shawnky]

New Orleans, for the foreseeable future, is pushing money to the future, they will continue to lose young mid range players, because they cannot afford them. And then they wouldn't have 1st round picks to provide young blue chip talent. 

They have serious money problems. 

They have Mickey Loomis.  They have no problems. 

 

[massraider]

They have Mickey Loomis.  They have no problems. 

That must be why Terron Armstead is in Miami having dinner.

 

[Anarchy99]

I’m not sure the Chiefs, Niners and Ravens would agree. Especially Kittle. Good Lord, that man does everything. And take away Andrews from Lamar and see how happy he is. 

Part of the issue is the guys that have been dominant TEs were not close to Top 5 overall picks. And the guys that have been early picks haven't come close to being worth the pick.

Kelce - 63
Kittle - 146
Andrews - 86
Gronk - 42
Gates - UDFA
Witten - 69
Graham - 95

As far as early, early picks go, TE and WR have to be considered as equals as their primary role should be gaining yards and TD. IMO, Pitts has to be an elite producer for YEARS (at a Top 5-10 WR level each year). Most TE burn out or get banged up by 30. Top shelf WR can play 5-7 more years than a TE will. Even if a TE can play much past 30, they generally are not producing at the same level as they did in their prime. Witten was still good (but not elite) in his 30s. Same with Gronk and Gates. I would expect Kelce to start slowing down. People can certainly disagree. 60 cents on the dollar beats 20 cents on the dollar . . . but is still less than $2.50 on the dollar.

 

[Shawnky]

That must be why Terron Armstead is in Miami having dinner.

No.  Armstead’s best days are behind him. He misses time every year.   Still a top LT, but agree with management it’s time to move on. He’s not worth what he’ll get.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just screams luxury pick to me, particularly with guys like Sewell and Parsons out there.

I get it. I also get that ATL had TGonz before the Kelce/Andrews/Kittle types, so they know the value of having a mismatch Kyle Pitts presents.

I agree the quarterback was a big need, but hard to say there was a lock for them at fifth overall.,

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It moves the needle more than a player at a premium position that sucks. 

The Colts took a HOF-level OG with the #6 in 2018. The Jets took Sam Darnold with the #3 pick. They should have taken the OG. 

The nerdy analytic types always seem to forget that some other positions have busts.

Agree. 

 

[Anarchy99]

I get it. I also get that ATL had TGonz before the Kelce/Andrews/Kittle types, so they know the value of having a mismatch Kyle Pitts presents.

I agree the quarterback was a big need, but hard to say there was a lock for them at fifth overall.,

Pitts went #4. They should have traded down and got a boatload of picks. I have been beating the drum for years that they needed major corrective surgery on the defensive side of the ball. Hard to tell what the deal might have looked like, but 3 picks in the draft and another pick in this draft could have been an option. Like a 1,2,3 and a future 2. 

 

[massraider]

Oy vey. Now we're on Madden Franchise Mode?

Hey, last QB to start a Week 1 game for Falcons not named Matt Ryan????

That's right, Joey Harrington, baby. 2007

 

[Capella]

Honestly, I don't think they finish last in their division. Carolina is every bit as bad, including at QB, and has nowhere near the draft capital Atlanta has. 

Carolina has a good defense and two high-level offensive weapons. Atlanta has Pitts and a Prayer. 

 

[Shawnky]

Pitts went #4. They should have traded down and got a boatload of picks. I have been beating the drum for years that they needed major corrective surgery on the defensive side of the ball. Hard to tell what the deal might have looked like, but 3 picks in the draft and another pick in this draft could have been an option. Like a 1,2,3 and a future 2. 

It's the Falcons.  Leave them be.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Pitts went #4. They should have traded down and got a boatload of picks. I have been beating the drum for years that they needed major corrective surgery on the defensive side of the ball. Hard to tell what the deal might have looked like, but 3 picks in the draft and another pick in this draft could have been an option. Like a 1,2,3 and a future 2. 

Did they spurn offers to do so?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's the Falcons.  Leave them be.

I was on a roll. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Based on AV and comparing actual TEs to the value of players from each draft, the last TE picked in the first round that produced first round value from his draft class was Greg Olsen in 2007. (Yes, there have been TEs that have delivered first round value, but they weren't drafted in the first round). Pitts looked good in his first season, but careers are marathons, not sprints. We won't know for many years how things will play out.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Based on AV and comparing actual TEs to the value of players from each draft, the last TE picked in the first round that produced first round value from his draft class was Greg Olsen in 2007. (Yes, there have been TEs that have delivered first round value, but they weren't drafted in the first round). Pitts looked good in his first season, but careers are marathons, not sprints. We won't know for many years how things will play out.

Facts.

And if they do land that next franchise QB next year, he’s sure gonna love having a big target like Pitts to throw to. 

So whether they could have traded down or not, they do have a premium player as a result. He had a fine season. He stayed healthy. It’s not like they burned the pick. 

 

[travdogg]

Part of the issue is the guys that have been dominant TEs were not close to Top 5 overall picks. And the guys that have been early picks haven't come close to being worth the pick.

Kelce - 63
Kittle - 146
Andrews - 86
Gronk - 42
Gates - UDFA
Witten - 69
Graham - 95

As far as early, early picks go, TE and WR have to be considered as equals as their primary role should be gaining yards and TD. IMO, Pitts has to be an elite producer for YEARS (at a Top 5-10 WR level each year). Most TE burn out or get banged up by 30. Top shelf WR can play 5-7 more years than a TE will. Even if a TE can play much past 30, they generally are not producing at the same level as they did in their prime. Witten was still good (but not elite) in his 30s. Same with Gronk and Gates. I would expect Kelce to start slowing down. People can certainly disagree. 60 cents on the dollar beats 20 cents on the dollar . . . but is still less than $2.50 on the dollar.

I'm not sure about that logic going forward though. Those guys were huge steals, and because of the value they provided, a guy like Pitts goes higher because he could be on that level. I don't think Eric Ebron or somebody like that not being elite means don't draft TE's highly, the same way that Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott don't mean its a good idea to wait on QBs. 

I think if we did those drafts over in hindsight, Gates and Witten both go top-5 in 2013. Gronk goes #1 overall in 2010. Graham goes top-10. Kelce goes #1 or #2 in 2013. Kittle goes top-5 in 2017, and Andrews is arguably top-5 in 2018. 

 

[Mene]

Did they spurn offers to do so?

I dunno about the "boatloads of picks" part, but they did refuse a call from the Detroit Lions during the draft.  Lions wanted to move up for Sewell was the rumor, I believe.

 

[Anarchy99]

I'm not sure about that logic going forward though. Those guys were huge steals, and because of the value they provided, a guy like Pitts goes higher because he could be on that level. I don't think Eric Ebron or somebody like that not being elite means don't draft TE's highly, the same way that Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott don't mean its a good idea to wait on QBs. 

I think if we did those drafts over in hindsight, Gates and Witten both go top-5 in 2013. Gronk goes #1 overall in 2010. Graham goes top-10. Kelce goes #1 or #2 in 2013. Kittle goes top-5 in 2017, and Andrews is arguably top-5 in 2018. 

There are no draft do overs. A lot of this is theory and debate about what teams SHOULD do. After the fact, the players you listed should have been drafted higher (although we can say that about a lot of players across many positions). GM's make decisions on how the league has typically drafted and how the league values its players. Put another way, if a GM swings and misses on an early TE pick a couple of times, that's got career suicide written all over it. Swing and miss on a QB / OT / CB / DE, that's just bad luck.

It's way easy to determine the order the players should have been drafted in once they all have played out their careers. That's why geeky analytical types have jobs . . . to determine which positions and draft strategies have been the most successful and carry the least risk (and how much to pay players). The simple solution to building a good NFL franchise is to draft guys that don't suck on a consistent basis. 

In the Falcons case, they accomplished that with Pitts . . . but have a team with many glaring needs, now in need of a QB, and still with a porous defense. While they do have Pitts, they also have a Bottom 5 offense, a Bottom 5 defense, and no QB. Again, how much impact does Pitts make the Falcons better to dig them out of the hole? (The Falcons could easily been DOA with or without Pitts . . . or whomever else they picked.)

 

[Anarchy99]

I dunno about the "boatloads of picks" part, but they did refuse a call from the Detroit Lions during the draft.  Lions wanted to move up for Sewell was the rumor, I believe.

The Niners moved three 1's and a 3 to get to the #3 pick . . . one spot in front of the Falcons. Who knows what the Falcons were offered for the #4 pick. I don't think it would be a crazy notion to suggest they got offers involving multiple picks.

 

[JohnnyU]

Great move by the Colts.  Get someone cheap that is 100% different than Wentz, be there for one or two years and worry about QB later when they have better draft capital and a better QB draft class.  Plus, Atlanta eats the dead money.  You would think the Falcons would have gotten more given the contract.  IMO they killed the Wentz trade and this one too.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Great move by the Colts.  Get someone cheap that is 100% different than Wentz, be there for one or two years and worry about QB later when they have better draft capital and a better QB draft class.  Plus, Atlanta eats the contract.  You would think the Falcons would have gotten more given the contract.  IMO they killed the Wentz trade and this one.

I agree on both counts. 

The only part that's tricky is that this move keeps them pretty competitive, so they might have to swing a trade to get to "franchise rookie QB" pick heights in 2023 or 2024, whenever they decide to pull the plug on the Ryan experiment. 

As a Pittman shareholder, I'm delighted. I think Ryan is a fantastic compliment to Pittman's route-running & catch ability. They should gel nicely. 

 

[JohnnyU]

I agree on both counts. 

The only part that's tricky is that this move keeps them pretty competitive, so they might have to swing a trade to get to "franchise rookie QB" pick heights in 2023 or 2024, whenever they decide to pull the plug on the Ryan experiment. 

As a Pittman shareholder, I'm delighted. I think Ryan is a fantastic compliment to Pittman's route-running & catch ability. They should gel nicely. 

I wouldn't be surprised if they reconnect Ryan with Julio Jones.  I still think he's a decent WR.  Not elite any longer, but if he's on the field he will compliment Pittman.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I wouldn't be surprised if they reconnect Ryan with Julio Jones.  I still think he's a decent WR.  Not elite any longer, but if he's on the field he will compliment Pittman.

Would also be a solid move for the Colts. 

And unlike in ATL, INDY actually has a tremendous run game, and a defense that can keep games close. Ryan doesn't have to be Mahomes to win 10+ games in Indy 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I dunno about the "boatloads of picks" part, but they did refuse a call from the Detroit Lions during the draft.  Lions wanted to move up for Sewell was the rumor, I believe.

Supposing that's true, I wouldn't move down three spots and risk losing out on the guy I really wanted either.

The Falcons weren't going to take a QB last year due to Ryan's contract. They already had the LT they liked. And there were zero DEs that warranted a high pick. So all the positions you're "supposed" to use a high pick on just didn't fit the picture.

 

[JohnnyU]

Would also be a solid move for the Colts. 

And unlike in ATL, INDY actually has a tremendous run game, and a defense that can keep games close. Ryan doesn't have to be Mahomes to win 10+ games in Indy 

I view Ryan as an above average game manager and that is what they need.  Someone that is completely different from Wentz.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I view Ryan as an above average game manager and that is what they need.  Someone that is completely different from Wentz.

I concur. Wentz seemingly refused to take the "bunny" throws, always trying to improvise & stretch the field, usually to disastrous results.  Ryan will stay on script and find his chain-movers. He will happily dump off, and is highly unlikely to throw the ill-timed head-scratching interception when he has a guy open short. 

 

[massraider]

He needs better targets than what they have there now. 

Ryan keeps them competitive, and they need to get lucky with a franchise QB somewhere outside of the top 10 of the draft. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Would also be a solid move for the Colts. 

And unlike in ATL, INDY actually has a tremendous run game, and a defense that can keep games close. Ryan doesn't have to be Mahomes to win 10+ games in Indy 

Similar to the Browns, there are no easy paths to 10 wins in the AFC . . .

TEN x 2, JAC x 2, HOU x 2, KC, DEN, LV, LAC, DAL, WAS, PHI, NYG, NE, PIT, and MIN.

The Colts could get to 10 wins, but they will have to beat some good teams to get there.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Similar to the Browns, there are no easy paths to 10 wins in the AFC . . .

TEN x 2, JAC x 2, HOU x 2, KC, DEN, LV, LAC, DAL, WAS, PHI, NYG, NE, PIT, and MIN.

The Colts could get to 10 wins, but they will have to beat some good teams to get there.

It's an interesting discussion - I kinda feel like Colts + Ryan have a better shot at it than the Browns + Watson. That AFC west schedule is brutal though. JAC & HOU could well be 4 wins though. PHI doesn't scare me, nor does PIT or LV at the moment, even with Davante Adams. Will have to revisit after the draft to see how that defense shapes up. And OL is still a bit of an issue for LV.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He needs better targets than what they have there now. 

Ryan keeps them competitive, and they need to get lucky with a franchise QB somewhere outside of the top 10 of the draft. 

Or trade up with players/picks, which they should be able to do. 

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

I like Christian Watson to Indy @ pick 42. Austin Hooper reuniting with Ryan would have made sense too, but I didn't realize he had signed with the Titans 

 

[-OZ-]

I like Christian Watson to Indy @ pick 42. Austin Hooper reuniting with Ryan makes some sense too.

Ummm  

 

[-OZ-]

the Titanic that is the Falcons right now. 

 
nicely done. 
Atlanta gets to upgrade and a pick  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I like Christian Watson to Indy @ pick 42. Austin Hooper reuniting with Ryan makes some sense too.

Hooper is a Titan. 

 

[JohnnyU]

 
nicely done. 
Atlanta gets to upgrade and a pick  

I wouldn't have minded Mariota to the Colts because he is mobile.  Either way, I like Ryan because he doesn't play every play with his hair on fire like Wentz did.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I wouldn't have minded Mariota to the Colts because he is mobile.  Either way, I like Ryan because he doesn't play every play with his hair on fire like Wentz did.

i thought MM was going to the Colts when they dealt Wentz. Seemed like a nice fit. I do think Ryan is a better QB. 

 

[Anarchy99]

i thought MM was going to the Colts when they dealt Wentz. Seemed like a nice fit. I do think Ryan is a better QB. 

Falcons signed Mariota . . . not sure if anyone posted it.