QB Russell Wilson, NYG (3 Viewers)

[Buckna]

It's going to be really painful for the Broncos to release Wilson this offseason.

1. If they release him outright and don't designate it as post-6/1, they take a 2024 dead cap hit of $85M. That does not seem feasible.
2. If they release him and designate it as post-6/1, they take a 2024 dead cap hit of $35.4M and a 2025 dead cap hit of $49.6M. I'm not sure if that is feasible or not, but at minimum it would mean their recovery likely cannot truly begin until 2026.

His 2025 salary becomes fully guaranteed if he is on the roster on March 21, 2024. So it seems like they have to go with option #2 here and release him before that date.

The trade was bad, especially in hindsight, but the real problem for Denver was the unnecessary and premature contract extension. Their franchise is in year 2 of a 4 year death spiral as a result of that decision.

They probably need to bench him to avoid any more money getting guaranteed through an injury, trade off as many players as possible, and tank for the best first round pick they can get next season to draft a QBOTF. Then that guy will have to go through 2 seasons of cap hell after the Wilson release, but at least by 2026 they could have their QB and have emerged into a healthy cap situation.

The extension just made no sense. They didn’t execute it until a few days before the start of the 2022 season when they already had acquired Wilson nearly 6 months before that. So there was no hurry and Wilson still had 2 years left on his old deal. They could have waited in season to see how things turned out or this past offseason. Not only had Wilson not played a single regular season game for the Broncos yet, but thanks to Hackett he hadn’t played a single preseason game either!

The GM tried to defend it saying they wanted to get ahead of the next round of QB contracts but it was massively risky given Wilson’s injuries and up and down play his final years with the Seahawks and it blew-up in their faces.

 

[Tau837]

Here's the out for the Broncos, assuming Russ doesn't make a dramatic turnaround very very soon...

POST-6/1 RELEASE
2024 Dead Cap: $35,400,000
2025 Dead Cap: $49,600,000
2024 Cap Savings: $0

Those dead cap figures look daunting, right? They are not at all. Russ has the following cap charges those two years, which get replaced by the dead cap numbers above.

2024 $35.4 MM
2025 $55.4 MM

So then, releasing him this coming offseason with a post-June 1 designation would actually be cap neutral in 2024, and free up ($55.4 - 49.6) = ~$6 MM in cap space in 2025. They would be using $35.4 MM and $49.6 MM of cap on a QB that is no longer there, but at this/that point, they might consider that addition by subtraction in that they could move on to a rookie QB with a cheap contract for those two seasons. Or even just roll with Stidham who is already on the books.

I get your point, but it isn't really cap neutral for 2024, because they will presumably draft a replacement QB with their first round pick, which should be very high. Per OverTheCap, they would currently slot into the #3 pick, which projects to have a 2024 cap hit of ~$7.6M.

Solely from a cap perspective, that is a clear net loss, since that projects them to use ~$50M (~20%) on the QB position in 2024 and ~$61M (~$22M) in 2025.

They really need to hit on that 2024 pick, and they can get of cap hell in 2026.

 

[LawFitz]

it isn't really cap neutral for 2024

It is though, b/c, whether or not they keep Russ, they would have the same cap charge in 2024 from his current contract, and would free up $6 MM from said contract in 2025 if the cut him with a post-June 1 designation this coming offseason.

What they choose to do with the remaining cap from there is a separate issue. E.g. if they choose to keep him, would that really preclude drafting a 1st round QB, if one they really like is available?

 

[BroncosFan07]

I prefer the Broncos to cut Wilson post June 1st next year and eat the $85 million all in one year. It won't make the 2024 roster look good however I feel it's better to not let his contract impact the team in 25 and beyond. The team isn't winning many games in 2024 regardless. I'm okay with gutting the team and handcuffing the salary cap for 1 year, especially when a consolation prize is they'll most likely finish last in 2024 and have the 1st pick.

 

[LawFitz]

I prefer the Broncos to cut Wilson post June 1st next year and eat the $85 million all in one year. It won't make the 2024 roster look good however I feel it's better to not let his contract impact the team in 25 and beyond. The team isn't winning many games in 2024 regardless. I'm okay with gutting the team and handcuffing the salary cap for 1 year, especially when a consolation prize is they'll most likely finish last in 2024 and have the 1st pick.

I like the thought process, but as it currently stands, the Broncos are ~20 MM over the projected 2024 cap, and this would put them at $70 MM over. Even if you gut the roster, there's no way to bridge such a gap in one year. A bunch of the subsequent cuts would need to designated as post-June 1 to roll over part of that cap hit into 2025 - maybe not the full $50 MM that Russ' contract would, but something not too far off, unless you are talking cutting team limbs like Bolles, Simmons, Powers and DJ Jones (cutting/trading those four collectively would shave ~$45 MM in 2024 cap).

 

[Ghost Rider]

It's wild watching him in a game with Mahomes. The pocket broke down for both offenses many times. Mahomes makes a play or dumps the ball, either way he never looks panicked. Russ somehow becomes a person who has never seen a pass rush before, panics, and does something insanely dumb. How someone with as much NFL experience as Wilson can look like that is nuts.

I know, it's mind-boggling. For a decade, we saw him somehow get out of so many sacks/hits and find a way to make a play. Now, he looks like just entered the league and is still trying to learn the speed of the NFL. I know he is lighter than last year, but his quickness still seems dramatically less than it was for most of his tenure in Seattle. Father Time seems to have caught him early.

 

[Tau837]

I prefer the Broncos to cut Wilson post June 1st next year and eat the $85 million all in one year. It won't make the 2024 roster look good however I feel it's better to not let his contract impact the team in 25 and beyond. The team isn't winning many games in 2024 regardless. I'm okay with gutting the team and handcuffing the salary cap for 1 year, especially when a consolation prize is they'll most likely finish last in 2024 and have the 1st pick.

So you mean pre-June 1. Could they feasibly eat $85M in 2024? That would seem to be very tough.

These are the salary cap expense categories:

1. Active contracts - right now, they have 44 players under contract for 2024 for a total of $253.6M; that includes Wilson, so reduce this to 43 players for $218.2M
2. Dead money - right now, they have $15.3M in dead money in 2024; increase this to $100.3M if the Broncos want to eat all of it in 2024
3. Practice squad - if they field a full practice squad in 2024 (16 players), it will cost about $4M
4. Practice squad elevations - I don't follow the Broncos, so I'm not sure how often they elevate PS players on gamedays, but would estimate $500K to $1M for this, since elevated players are paid at NFL minimum salary level rather than PS level when elevated
5. In-season injury replacements - players on the 53 man roster will get hurt and go on IR, and they will have to be replaced; I usually estimate about $3M for a full season
6. Draft picks - right now, the Broncos have 6 2024 draft picks, and OTC estimates they will collectively hit the 2024 cap for about $12.3M
7. The 43 players under contract plus 6 draft picks is 49 players, but they need 53 for the 2024 active roster - add 4 players at 2024 minimum salary means adding about $3M

Add all of that up and you get about $340M. OTC projects the 2024 salary cap base (before adjustments and rollovers) to be $256M. How could they possibly cut $84M to get cap compliant?

 

[BroncosFan07]

I prefer the Broncos to cut Wilson post June 1st next year and eat the $85 million all in one year. It won't make the 2024 roster look good however I feel it's better to not let his contract impact the team in 25 and beyond. The team isn't winning many games in 2024 regardless. I'm okay with gutting the team and handcuffing the salary cap for 1 year, especially when a consolation prize is they'll most likely finish last in 2024 and have the 1st pick.

I like the thought process, but as it currently stands, the Broncos are ~20 MM over the projected 2024 cap, and this would put them at $70 MM over. Even if you gut the roster, there's no way to bridge such a gap in one year. A bunch of the subsequent cuts would need to designated as post-June 1 to roll over part of that cap hit into 2025 - maybe not the full $50 MM that Russ' contract would, but something not too far off, unless you are talking cutting team limbs like Bolles, Simmons, Powers and DJ Jones (cutting/trading those four collectively would shave ~$45 MM in 2024 cap).

It can be done but does require cutting and trading key players. I used sportrac’s GM tool and created a situation where the Broncos could have $21 million in cap next year to sign rookies and roster fillers but it requires trading Simmons, Bolles, and Juedy and cutting Tim Patrick. It also involves restructuring a few other key contracts. The tool is pretty useful to tinker around see the ramifications. I need to cut, trade, or restructure 9 players to get to the point of having $21 mil in cap space next year.

 

[BroncosFan07]

I prefer the Broncos to cut Wilson post June 1st next year and eat the $85 million all in one year. It won't make the 2024 roster look good however I feel it's better to not let his contract impact the team in 25 and beyond. The team isn't winning many games in 2024 regardless. I'm okay with gutting the team and handcuffing the salary cap for 1 year, especially when a consolation prize is they'll most likely finish last in 2024 and have the 1st pick.

So you mean pre-June 1. Could they feasibly eat $85M in 2024? That would seem to be very tough.

These are the salary cap expense categories:

1. Active contracts - right now, they have 44 players under contract for 2024 for a total of $253.6M; that includes Wilson, so reduce this to 43 players for $218.2M
2. Dead money - right now, they have $15.3M in dead money in 2024; increase this to $100.3M if the Broncos want to eat all of it in 2024
3. Practice squad - if they field a full practice squad in 2024 (16 players), it will cost about $4M
4. Practice squad elevations - I don't follow the Broncos, so I'm not sure how often they elevate PS players on gamedays, but would estimate $500K to $1M for this, since elevated players are paid at NFL minimum salary level rather than PS level when elevated
5. In-season injury replacements - players on the 53 man roster will get hurt and go on IR, and they will have to be replaced; I usually estimate about $3M for a full season
6. Draft picks - right now, the Broncos have 6 2024 draft picks, and OTC estimates they will collectively hit the 2024 cap for about $12.3M
7. The 43 players under contract plus 6 draft picks is 49 players, but they need 53 for the 2024 active roster - add 4 players at 2024 minimum salary means adding about $3M

Add all of that up and you get about $340M. OTC projects the 2024 salary cap base (before adjustments and rollovers) to be $256M. How could they possibly cut $84M to get cap compliant?

NFL | Spotrac.com

NFL homepage listing out teams, transactions and the latest news.

www.spotrac.com

The link has the roster after my 9 transactions so you can see how I got there.

 

[BroncosFan07]

I prefer the Broncos to cut Wilson post June 1st next year and eat the $85 million all in one year. It won't make the 2024 roster look good however I feel it's better to not let his contract impact the team in 25 and beyond. The team isn't winning many games in 2024 regardless. I'm okay with gutting the team and handcuffing the salary cap for 1 year, especially when a consolation prize is they'll most likely finish last in 2024 and have the 1st pick.

So you mean pre-June 1. Could they feasibly eat $85M in 2024? That would seem to be very tough.

These are the salary cap expense categories:

1. Active contracts - right now, they have 44 players under contract for 2024 for a total of $253.6M; that includes Wilson, so reduce this to 43 players for $218.2M
2. Dead money - right now, they have $15.3M in dead money in 2024; increase this to $100.3M if the Broncos want to eat all of it in 2024
3. Practice squad - if they field a full practice squad in 2024 (16 players), it will cost about $4M
4. Practice squad elevations - I don't follow the Broncos, so I'm not sure how often they elevate PS players on gamedays, but would estimate $500K to $1M for this, since elevated players are paid at NFL minimum salary level rather than PS level when elevated
5. In-season injury replacements - players on the 53 man roster will get hurt and go on IR, and they will have to be replaced; I usually estimate about $3M for a full season
6. Draft picks - right now, the Broncos have 6 2024 draft picks, and OTC estimates they will collectively hit the 2024 cap for about $12.3M
7. The 43 players under contract plus 6 draft picks is 49 players, but they need 53 for the 2024 active roster - add 4 players at 2024 minimum salary means adding about $3M

Add all of that up and you get about $340M. OTC projects the 2024 salary cap base (before adjustments and rollovers) to be $256M. How could they possibly cut $84M to get cap compliant?

NFL | Spotrac.com

NFL homepage listing out teams, transactions and the latest news.

www.spotrac.com

The link has the roster after my 9 transactions so you can see how I got there.

Also I realize there are a lot more details that would have to be in place to fill out a full roster and practice squad. My $21 million in cap space probably doesn’t have enough to cover rookies and league minimum contracts. It might take trading 2024 picks for 2025 picks as well. Also in my trades of Juedy, Simmons, and Bolles, they’d most likely have to be for 2025 picks as well. It’s ugly for sure but I think it can be done and the team probably goes 0-17 or 1-16 but that’s the point I’m trying to make. Do whatever it takes no matter how ugly it is.

 

[Tau837]

I prefer the Broncos to cut Wilson post June 1st next year and eat the $85 million all in one year. It won't make the 2024 roster look good however I feel it's better to not let his contract impact the team in 25 and beyond. The team isn't winning many games in 2024 regardless. I'm okay with gutting the team and handcuffing the salary cap for 1 year, especially when a consolation prize is they'll most likely finish last in 2024 and have the 1st pick.

So you mean pre-June 1. Could they feasibly eat $85M in 2024? That would seem to be very tough.

These are the salary cap expense categories:

1. Active contracts - right now, they have 44 players under contract for 2024 for a total of $253.6M; that includes Wilson, so reduce this to 43 players for $218.2M
2. Dead money - right now, they have $15.3M in dead money in 2024; increase this to $100.3M if the Broncos want to eat all of it in 2024
3. Practice squad - if they field a full practice squad in 2024 (16 players), it will cost about $4M
4. Practice squad elevations - I don't follow the Broncos, so I'm not sure how often they elevate PS players on gamedays, but would estimate $500K to $1M for this, since elevated players are paid at NFL minimum salary level rather than PS level when elevated
5. In-season injury replacements - players on the 53 man roster will get hurt and go on IR, and they will have to be replaced; I usually estimate about $3M for a full season
6. Draft picks - right now, the Broncos have 6 2024 draft picks, and OTC estimates they will collectively hit the 2024 cap for about $12.3M
7. The 43 players under contract plus 6 draft picks is 49 players, but they need 53 for the 2024 active roster - add 4 players at 2024 minimum salary means adding about $3M

Add all of that up and you get about $340M. OTC projects the 2024 salary cap base (before adjustments and rollovers) to be $256M. How could they possibly cut $84M to get cap compliant?

NFL | Spotrac.com

NFL homepage listing out teams, transactions and the latest news.

www.spotrac.com

The link has the roster after my 9 transactions so you can see how I got there.

You are only showing 38 players. Need 15 more.

Some of those will be the draft picks, but they aren't accounted for here. They will cost more than $12M, assuming all make the final roster. Now you need 9 more players.

9 more UDFA minimum salary players = $6.75M

You aren't accounting (visibly) for practice squad, practice squad elevations, or in-season injury replacements. That is probably about $7.5M to $8M.

So your plan is not sufficient, though it is close.

 

[BroncosFan07]

I prefer the Broncos to cut Wilson post June 1st next year and eat the $85 million all in one year. It won't make the 2024 roster look good however I feel it's better to not let his contract impact the team in 25 and beyond. The team isn't winning many games in 2024 regardless. I'm okay with gutting the team and handcuffing the salary cap for 1 year, especially when a consolation prize is they'll most likely finish last in 2024 and have the 1st pick.

So you mean pre-June 1. Could they feasibly eat $85M in 2024? That would seem to be very tough.

These are the salary cap expense categories:

1. Active contracts - right now, they have 44 players under contract for 2024 for a total of $253.6M; that includes Wilson, so reduce this to 43 players for $218.2M
2. Dead money - right now, they have $15.3M in dead money in 2024; increase this to $100.3M if the Broncos want to eat all of it in 2024
3. Practice squad - if they field a full practice squad in 2024 (16 players), it will cost about $4M
4. Practice squad elevations - I don't follow the Broncos, so I'm not sure how often they elevate PS players on gamedays, but would estimate $500K to $1M for this, since elevated players are paid at NFL minimum salary level rather than PS level when elevated
5. In-season injury replacements - players on the 53 man roster will get hurt and go on IR, and they will have to be replaced; I usually estimate about $3M for a full season
6. Draft picks - right now, the Broncos have 6 2024 draft picks, and OTC estimates they will collectively hit the 2024 cap for about $12.3M
7. The 43 players under contract plus 6 draft picks is 49 players, but they need 53 for the 2024 active roster - add 4 players at 2024 minimum salary means adding about $3M

Add all of that up and you get about $340M. OTC projects the 2024 salary cap base (before adjustments and rollovers) to be $256M. How could they possibly cut $84M to get cap compliant?

NFL | Spotrac.com

NFL homepage listing out teams, transactions and the latest news.

www.spotrac.com

The link has the roster after my 9 transactions so you can see how I got there.

You are only showing 38 players. Need 15 more.

Some of those will be the draft picks, but they aren't accounted for here. They will cost more than $12M, assuming all make the final roster. Now you need 9 more players.

9 more UDFA minimum salary players = $6.75M

You aren't accounting (visibly) for practice squad, practice squad elevations, or in-season injury replacements. That is probably about $7.5M to $8M.

So your plan is not sufficient, though it is close.

Agreed and acknowledged in my second response to you. There were more contracts that I could restructure to help as well. I didn’t play around with what happened if I cut Zach Allen, DJ Jones, Ben Powers etc. there might be some more dead cap but overall savings there as well.

 

[Tau837]

I prefer the Broncos to cut Wilson post June 1st next year and eat the $85 million all in one year. It won't make the 2024 roster look good however I feel it's better to not let his contract impact the team in 25 and beyond. The team isn't winning many games in 2024 regardless. I'm okay with gutting the team and handcuffing the salary cap for 1 year, especially when a consolation prize is they'll most likely finish last in 2024 and have the 1st pick.

So you mean pre-June 1. Could they feasibly eat $85M in 2024? That would seem to be very tough.

These are the salary cap expense categories:

1. Active contracts - right now, they have 44 players under contract for 2024 for a total of $253.6M; that includes Wilson, so reduce this to 43 players for $218.2M
2. Dead money - right now, they have $15.3M in dead money in 2024; increase this to $100.3M if the Broncos want to eat all of it in 2024
3. Practice squad - if they field a full practice squad in 2024 (16 players), it will cost about $4M
4. Practice squad elevations - I don't follow the Broncos, so I'm not sure how often they elevate PS players on gamedays, but would estimate $500K to $1M for this, since elevated players are paid at NFL minimum salary level rather than PS level when elevated
5. In-season injury replacements - players on the 53 man roster will get hurt and go on IR, and they will have to be replaced; I usually estimate about $3M for a full season
6. Draft picks - right now, the Broncos have 6 2024 draft picks, and OTC estimates they will collectively hit the 2024 cap for about $12.3M
7. The 43 players under contract plus 6 draft picks is 49 players, but they need 53 for the 2024 active roster - add 4 players at 2024 minimum salary means adding about $3M

Add all of that up and you get about $340M. OTC projects the 2024 salary cap base (before adjustments and rollovers) to be $256M. How could they possibly cut $84M to get cap compliant?

NFL | Spotrac.com

NFL homepage listing out teams, transactions and the latest news.

www.spotrac.com

The link has the roster after my 9 transactions so you can see how I got there.

Also I realize there are a lot more details that would have to be in place to fill out a full roster and practice squad. My $21 million in cap space probably doesn’t have enough to cover rookies and league minimum contracts. It might take trading 2024 picks for 2025 picks as well. Also in my trades of Juedy, Simmons, and Bolles, they’d most likely have to be for 2025 picks as well. It’s ugly for sure but I think it can be done and the team probably goes 0-17 or 1-16 but that’s the point I’m trying to make. Do whatever it takes no matter how ugly it is.

Our posts crossed. I certainly think there is a reasonable argument to draft the QBOTF and otherwise completely tear down the roster and tank in 2024, getting more good draft picks and clearing 2025 cap space. That would set the team up to really kick into the rebuild in 2025, but it would be a big rebuild that would probably take 2-3 seasons. One of the main things would be to avoid drafting the QBOTF in the 2024 draft and putting him a dire situation in 2024 if/when he plays.

 

[Tau837]

I prefer the Broncos to cut Wilson post June 1st next year and eat the $85 million all in one year. It won't make the 2024 roster look good however I feel it's better to not let his contract impact the team in 25 and beyond. The team isn't winning many games in 2024 regardless. I'm okay with gutting the team and handcuffing the salary cap for 1 year, especially when a consolation prize is they'll most likely finish last in 2024 and have the 1st pick.

So you mean pre-June 1. Could they feasibly eat $85M in 2024? That would seem to be very tough.

These are the salary cap expense categories:

1. Active contracts - right now, they have 44 players under contract for 2024 for a total of $253.6M; that includes Wilson, so reduce this to 43 players for $218.2M
2. Dead money - right now, they have $15.3M in dead money in 2024; increase this to $100.3M if the Broncos want to eat all of it in 2024
3. Practice squad - if they field a full practice squad in 2024 (16 players), it will cost about $4M
4. Practice squad elevations - I don't follow the Broncos, so I'm not sure how often they elevate PS players on gamedays, but would estimate $500K to $1M for this, since elevated players are paid at NFL minimum salary level rather than PS level when elevated
5. In-season injury replacements - players on the 53 man roster will get hurt and go on IR, and they will have to be replaced; I usually estimate about $3M for a full season
6. Draft picks - right now, the Broncos have 6 2024 draft picks, and OTC estimates they will collectively hit the 2024 cap for about $12.3M
7. The 43 players under contract plus 6 draft picks is 49 players, but they need 53 for the 2024 active roster - add 4 players at 2024 minimum salary means adding about $3M

Add all of that up and you get about $340M. OTC projects the 2024 salary cap base (before adjustments and rollovers) to be $256M. How could they possibly cut $84M to get cap compliant?

NFL | Spotrac.com

NFL homepage listing out teams, transactions and the latest news.

www.spotrac.com

The link has the roster after my 9 transactions so you can see how I got there.

Also I realize there are a lot more details that would have to be in place to fill out a full roster and practice squad. My $21 million in cap space probably doesn’t have enough to cover rookies and league minimum contracts. It might take trading 2024 picks for 2025 picks as well. Also in my trades of Juedy, Simmons, and Bolles, they’d most likely have to be for 2025 picks as well. It’s ugly for sure but I think it can be done and the team probably goes 0-17 or 1-16 but that’s the point I’m trying to make. Do whatever it takes no matter how ugly it is.

Our posts crossed. I certainly think there is a reasonable argument to draft the QBOTF and otherwise completely tear down the roster and tank in 2024, getting more good draft picks and clearing 2025 cap space. That would set the team up to really kick into the rebuild in 2025, but it would be a big rebuild that would probably take 2-3 seasons. One of the main things would be to avoid drafting the QBOTF in the 2024 draft and putting him a dire situation in 2024 if/when he plays.

Another thing to consider is the fans and associated revenue. If the team lays out a plan to obviously be the worst team in the league in 2024, what does that do to revenue, fan support, etc.? I know Denver has a committed fan base, but I don't remember a time when they were asked to persevere through this level of bad play for multiple seasons.

 

[LawFitz]

Good discussion above. We don't do enough following the money around here when discussing possible team actions. In reality, it's at least half the thought process for the actual teams.

@BroncosFan07 one thing that complicates your outline... Is there any team out there willing to pay Jarry Judy $12 MM guaranteed next year? I have some major doubts about that. In order to trade him, I suspect the Broncos will need to eat a good portion of that guarantee.

 

[Tau837]

Good discussion above. We don't do enough following the money around here when discussing possible team actions. In reality, it's at least half the thought process for the actual teams.

@BroncosFan07 one thing that complicates your outline... Is there any team out there willing to pay Jarry Judy $12 MM guaranteed next year? I have some major doubts about that. In order to trade him, I suspect the Broncos will need to eat a good portion of that guarantee.

Closer to $13M I think. I agree with you, it seems unlikely a trade partner would absorb that commitment. Denver might have to convert some of that to signing bonus and eat some of it to trade him.

 

[BroncosFan07]

Good discussion above. We don't do enough following the money around here when discussing possible team actions. In reality, it's at least half the thought process for the actual teams.

@BroncosFan07 one thing that complicates your outline... Is there any team out there willing to pay Jarry Judy $12 MM guaranteed next year? I have some major doubts about that. In order to trade him, I suspect the Broncos will need to eat a good portion of that guarantee.

Closer to $13M I think. I agree with you, it seems unlikely a trade partner would absorb that commitment. Denver might have to convert some of that to signing bonus and eat some of it to trade him.

Agreed. Assumptions were made that there would be willing trade partners for all 3 of my trades and none of the 3 are guaranteed.

On the point about revenue and fan interest….this would come into play but would hope that most Broncos fans are as committed to long term success and washing our hands of the horrible contract. Not all will be. Financial impact will be greater than just eating $85 million for Wilson. I think long term revenue would be greater if the team is overhauled and I know fans will come back quickly if we start winning again and making the playoffs and more. I see multiple 4-13 seasons by dragging Wilson out more years

 

[Faust]

The Denver Broncos' options for getting out of Russell Wilson's contract

 

[FarFromHome]

Can't believe I went from having Mahomes and Fields last week to looking at starting Wilson this week off the waiver wire. Stupid football. Smh

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have never been a Russ Wilson fan, for redraft purposes, Wilson has been a fringe Top 10 QB in FF

21-35-19-40-25 and then 10 this past week and everyone wants to fall off a cliff

GB, KC and then a Bye week
His schedule is up and down after that but Weeks 14 and 17(FF Champ 16th game of season) he will face off against LAC, who knows where they will be at that point or of Staley is still the HC

I would be trying to acquire him, he's cheap this week and nobody believes in him.
Perfect QB2 right now behind the bigger names
And if you sustained a major injury as in the thread I launched today, he looks like a cold drink of water in the middle of a hot desert

 

[LawFitz]

The Denver Broncos' options for getting out of Russell Wilson's contract

Wilson's total dead cap would actually increase to $86.6 million in 2025 if the Broncos were to allow further guarantees to kick in. Biting the bullet as soon as possible is the only way.

WILL WILSON CONTINUE TO START THROUGH THE 2023 SEASON?​

Denver signed backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham to a two-year, $10 million contract — which is not insignificant, given the current situation. The Las Vegas Raiders benched Derek Carr at the end of last season for Stidham, and it wasn’t just about Carr’s poor play. Carr had injury guarantees remaining on his contract, where any significant injury that made him unable to pass a physical at a later date would lock in money for him. The same principle applies to Russell Wilson, with injury guarantees of $37 million in 2025 and $4 million in 2026 as of today.

I suspect Russ gets very few more weeks to show a lot more than the modest improvement he's shown so far. Even with that improvement, he's nowhere near worth the value of his contract. Either he renegotiates the terms of his deal (unlikely), or he gets put on ice very very soon. There's way too much at stake in terms of the Broncos 2024-5 cap to take the chance of him suffering a big injury - especially now with a 1-5 team record.

 

[Mitchie]

The Denver Broncos' options for getting out of Russell Wilson's contract

Wilson's total dead cap would actually increase to $86.6 million in 2025 if the Broncos were to allow further guarantees to kick in. Biting the bullet as soon as possible is the only way.

WILL WILSON CONTINUE TO START THROUGH THE 2023 SEASON?​

Denver signed backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham to a two-year, $10 million contract — which is not insignificant, given the current situation. The Las Vegas Raiders benched Derek Carr at the end of last season for Stidham, and it wasn’t just about Carr’s poor play. Carr had injury guarantees remaining on his contract, where any significant injury that made him unable to pass a physical at a later date would lock in money for him. The same principle applies to Russell Wilson, with injury guarantees of $37 million in 2025 and $4 million in 2026 as of today.

I suspect Russ gets very few more weeks to show a lot more than the modest improvement he's shown so far. Even with that improvement, he's nowhere near worth the value of his contract. Either he renegotiates the terms of his deal (unlikely), or he gets put on ice very very soon. There's way too much at stake in terms of the Broncos 2024-5 cap to take the chance of him suffering a big injury - especially now with a 1-5 team record.

very unlikely imo, he's actually playing pretty decently and they traded too much to give up on him. yet. now if he struggles over next 6-8 weeks then they have to start thinking about that maybe.

 

[FarFromHome]

Broncos fans might not like this but they are, for better or worse, stuck with both Wilson and Payton for awhile. Zero chance they can trade them. Zero chance they release or fire one of them. Zero chance they bench a healthy Wilson. For financial reasons they have to ride this out a bit.

 

[Dizzy]

Broncos fans might not like this but they are, for better or worse, stuck with both Wilson and Payton for awhile. Zero chance they can trade them. Zero chance they release or fire one of them. Zero chance they bench a healthy Wilson. For financial reasons they have to ride this out a bit.

I may be wrong but I thought I heard on one of the networks that it will cost DEN $34+ million to have Wilson on the roster for 2024, or cost them $17 million to cut him, no?

 

[FarFromHome]

Broncos fans might not like this but they are, for better or worse, stuck with both Wilson and Payton for awhile. Zero chance they can trade them. Zero chance they release or fire one of them. Zero chance they bench a healthy Wilson. For financial reasons they have to ride this out a bit.

I may be wrong but I thought I heard on one of the networks that it will cost DEN $34+ million to have Wilson on the roster for 2024, or cost them $17 million to cut him, no?

If they release him its a 30 plus million cap hit. I guess that high of dead cap hit on a player has happened before. I did just find this interesting nugget:

If he’s healthy, Wilson has $39 million guaranteed in his contract next year. If he suffers a serious injury and hasn’t recovered by March, Wilson will have $76 million guaranteed next year.

Thats interesting. From a business standpoint does benching make sense? Kinda

 

[LawFitz]

Broncos fans might not like this but they are, for better or worse, stuck with both Wilson and Payton for awhile. Zero chance they can trade them. Zero chance they release or fire one of them. Zero chance they bench a healthy Wilson. For financial reasons they have to ride this out a bit.

Nope, not true. I've detailed this upthread here and I believe in the Mims thread. If they want to move on from Wilson, they can this offseason, taking on significant dead money hits in 2024 and 2025, which are entirely offset and then some by the elimination of Wilson's otherwise scheduled cap hits. It's basically cap neutral (exactly even in '24 with some cap savings in '25) to cut him this offseason. The dead money is a sunk-cost fallacy when it's equal or less to the scheduled cap hits, and it is in this case.

Now what is a very real factor is the added guarantees if he were to suffer a serious injury. THAT would lock them into Wilson beyond this year, and is a major incentive to put him on ice the moment they decide they are most likely moving on from him. 1-5 start isn't helping his cause at all. Caveat emptor for anyone holding or looking to acquire him in redraft.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

Broncos fans might not like this but they are, for better or worse, stuck with both Wilson and Payton for awhile. Zero chance they can trade them. Zero chance they release or fire one of them. Zero chance they bench a healthy Wilson. For financial reasons they have to ride this out a bit.

I may be wrong but I thought I heard on one of the networks that it will cost DEN $34+ million to have Wilson on the roster for 2024, or cost them $17 million to cut him, no?

If they release him its a 30 plus million cap hit. I guess that high of dead cap hit on a player has happened before. I did just find this interesting nugget:

If he’s healthy, Wilson has $39 million guaranteed in his contract next year. If he suffers a serious injury and hasn’t recovered by March, Wilson will have $76 million guaranteed next year.

Thats interesting. From a business standpoint does benching make sense? Kinda

If they decide to cut him, it would be crazy to not bench him immediately.

 

[LawFitz]

Broncos fans might not like this but they are, for better or worse, stuck with both Wilson and Payton for awhile. Zero chance they can trade them. Zero chance they release or fire one of them. Zero chance they bench a healthy Wilson. For financial reasons they have to ride this out a bit.

I may be wrong but I thought I heard on one of the networks that it will cost DEN $34+ million to have Wilson on the roster for 2024, or cost them $17 million to cut him, no?

If they release him its a 30 plus million cap hit. I guess that high of dead cap hit on a player has happened before. I did just find this interesting nugget:

If he’s healthy, Wilson has $39 million guaranteed in his contract next year. If he suffers a serious injury and hasn’t recovered by March, Wilson will have $76 million guaranteed next year.

Thats interesting. From a business standpoint does benching make sense? Kinda

If they decide to cut him, it would be crazy to not bench him immediately.

Exactly this. See Carr, Derek, 2022 Raiduhs.

 

[Mitchie]

Richest owner in the NFL, doubt that extra money means that much, they've invested a ton, too soon to give up, he's not getting cut or benched, (at least for a while.)

 

[TampaMike19]

This is what Spotrac is showing:

POST-6/1 RELEASE 2024 Dead Cap: $35,400,000 2025 Dead Cap: $49,600,000
2024 Cap Savings: $0

Kudos to @LawFitz . Very real possibility he's a post 6/1 release and they work towards certainly obtaining their rookie QB in the draft as it'll fit under the current cap. They just may be **** out of luck with Russ' cap tied up until far after free agency so they are going to probably struggle for a while barring crazy hits on draft picks and possible cheap FA's.

There is $6MM in savings for 2025 due to his massive cap hit. Lucky for Denver if they obtain a really good QB on a cheap contract that they may not suffer for TOO long. Perhaps that is Payton's endgame.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Broncos fans might not like this but they are, for better or worse, stuck with both Wilson and Payton for awhile. Zero chance they can trade them. Zero chance they release or fire one of them. Zero chance they bench a healthy Wilson. For financial reasons they have to ride this out a bit.

Nope, not true. I've detailed this upthread here and I believe in the Mims thread. If they want to move on from Wilson, they can this offseason, taking on significant dead money hits in 2024 and 2025, which are entirely offset and then some by the elimination of Wilson's otherwise scheduled cap hits. It's basically cap neutral (exactly even in '24 with some cap savings in '25) to cut him this offseason. The dead money is a sunk-cost fallacy when it's equal or less to the scheduled cap hits, and it is in this case.

Now what is a very real factor is the added guarantees if he were to suffer a serious injury. THAT would lock them into Wilson beyond this year, and is a major incentive to put him on ice the moment they decide they are most likely moving on from him. 1-5 start isn't helping his cause at all. Caveat emptor for anyone holding or looking to acquire him in redraft.

I had no idea you worked in used car sales
You make it sound so good

 

[LawFitz]

Richest owner in the NFL, doubt that extra money means that much, they've invested a ton, too soon to give up, he's not getting cut or benched, (at least for a while.)

Has nothing to do with being real-world rich. This is a salary cap equation. You are focused on the wrong set of finances.

Once they decide they are moving on, the injury guarantees in Russ' contract become a huge risk to their ability to do so this offseason (from a cap perspective).

Again, same exact dynamic the Raiders faced with Carr last year. They benched him once their playoff hopes were finally and completely squashed with two games remaining. Problem for Russ is at 1-5, that same eventually might come much sooner than it did for Carr.

 

[FarFromHome]

Richest owner in the NFL, doubt that extra money means that much, they've invested a ton, too soon to give up, he's not getting cut or benched, (at least for a while.)

Has nothing to do with being real-world rich. This is a salary cap equation. You are focused on the wrong set of finances.

Once they decide they are moving on, the injury guarantees in Russ' contract become a huge risk to their ability to do so this offseason (from a cap perspective).

Again, same exact dynamic the Raiders faced with Carr last year. They benched him once their playoff hopes were finally and completely squashed with two games remaining. Problem for Russ is at 1-5, that same eventually might come much sooner than it did for Carr.

And then in the end it comes down to do the Broncos think they can't fix Wilson or are they gonna start over. Starting over isn't easy with the QB position. It isnt an exact science. They could stumble around the next ten years not find one and start missing Wilson. Ha ha

 

[menobrown]

Broncos mailbag: Just how busy will the NFL trade deadline be for Sean Payton?

Are the Broncos approaching a time where it would make sense to evaluate backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham?

theathletic.com

When will Penner tell Payton/Paton to shelve Russell Wilson for the season so they can avoid an injury guarantee and move on from the former Seahawks quarterback at the end of the season? Or do they honestly believe they can make a run at respectability this season? — Andrew J.

What will it take to start Jarrett Stidham? In very limited time, he seems to have a much quicker release than Wilson and actually runs the offense and throws to the open receiver. — Maggie N.

This topic is not going away so long as the Broncos keep losing, particularly if Wilson continues to struggle like he did in Week 6 against the Chiefs. The 12-year veteran last Thursday posted the worst EPA (expected points added) per dropback in 179 career games, according to TruMedia. It was the third-worst quarterback performance under Sean Payton as a head coach by EPA per dropback. I think the general belief is that Wilson’s experience provides a baseline standard that can help you evaluate everything else around him and still compete. That was largely the case in the first four games of the season. But if it gets to a point where Wilson is no longer providing that consistently, it would behoove Payton to see what he has in Stidham.

As far as a Penner intervention, I don’t see that happening. That’s because I believe he and Payton talked through various quarterback scenarios extensively during the hiring process and into the offseason. I believe there is alignment in what they want to do and Payton will be left to decide when and if it is time to make a change at quarterback, the organization fully aware of the ramifications that would follow.

 

[Stoneworker]

Broncos mailbag: Just how busy will the NFL trade deadline be for Sean Payton?

Are the Broncos approaching a time where it would make sense to evaluate backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham?

theathletic.com

When will Penner tell Payton/Paton to shelve Russell Wilson for the season so they can avoid an injury guarantee and move on from the former Seahawks quarterback at the end of the season? Or do they honestly believe they can make a run at respectability this season? — Andrew J.

What will it take to start Jarrett Stidham? In very limited time, he seems to have a much quicker release than Wilson and actually runs the offense and throws to the open receiver. — Maggie N.

This topic is not going away so long as the Broncos keep losing, particularly if Wilson continues to struggle like he did in Week 6 against the Chiefs. The 12-year veteran last Thursday posted the worst EPA (expected points added) per dropback in 179 career games, according to TruMedia. It was the third-worst quarterback performance under Sean Payton as a head coach by EPA per dropback. I think the general belief is that Wilson’s experience provides a baseline standard that can help you evaluate everything else around him and still compete. That was largely the case in the first four games of the season. But if it gets to a point where Wilson is no longer providing that consistently, it would behoove Payton to see what he has in Stidham.

As far as a Penner intervention, I don’t see that happening. That’s because I believe he and Payton talked through various quarterback scenarios extensively during the hiring process and into the offseason. I believe there is alignment in what they want to do and Payton will be left to decide when and if it is time to make a change at quarterback, the organization fully aware of the ramifications that would follow.

Great post and observations. It is also very observant by the questioner re: Stidham's quick release. He looked awesome in the preseason game vs. Rams but also appears to be a bit of a gunslinger. But at $5mm guaranteed Payton sees not just a backup in Stidham but a potential replacement.

Payton has mentioned multiple times that he does not care about a player's "pedigree" determining playing time (e.g. McLaughlin). By releasing Randy Gregory at a huge writeoff it also speaks to not having financial implications as highest priority but finding the right core to build from

Wilson was fine in the first four games but is obviously currently in a bit of a tailspin. If the locker room starts to lose faith in Russ then I gotta believe Stidham will get his shot possibly as soon as after the Week 9 bye.

 

[menobrown]

More speculation on Wilson getting released this off-season:

Latest buzz for NFL Week 7: Upset predictions, trade fits, coaching candidates and NFC South picks

Should the Chiefs trade for a WR? Which coordinators are getting buzz? Could Detroit beat Baltimore? Our experts have rumors, upsets and fantasy intel.

www.espn.com

At this time last year, we asked how worried Broncos fans should be about Russell Wilson's contract, on a scale of 1-10. What would your answer be now?​

Graziano: 10, and I wish I could go higher. I think the Broncos have to bite the bullet and cut him before the 2025 guarantees kick in next March. Designate him a post-June 1 cut, take the $35.4 million dead money hit in 2024, another $49 million or so in 2025 and draft a QB to rebuild around.

 

[Tau837]

I wonder if there would be any chance Wilson would renegotiate contract terms. If his contract remains the same, it seems very likely he will be released this offseason and likely benched soon to avoid the additional guarantee risk due to injury.

If he is released, he very obviously will never sign another contract for anything close to his past two contracts. He could potentially be out of the NFL. If not, he will have to be willing to take something like, say, Baker Mayfield. And would any team really sign him to a multi-year contract as a starter? I'm not sure of the answers, but I don't think it is a given that he starts somewhere else next season, which implies a huge pay cut for him even if he does not retire.

Therefore, shouldn't he be willing to renegotiate lower his cap hits? His prorated signing bonus cap hits are locked in, but all of the rest should be subject to renegotiation.

• He is scheduled for a $22M option bonus in 2024. It is guaranteed, but it seems that (amount and guarantee) could be renegotiable.
• His salaries from 2024-2028 are scheduled to be $17M, $37M, $40M, $44M, and $50M. All of those should be renegotiable.

 

[Drake Hater]

He could potentially be out of the NFL

That would be a shock. QB play is down across the league and he's far from the worst. If they cut him, someone will be there to pay him more than necessary.

 

[menobrown]

He could potentially be out of the NFL

That would be a shock. QB play is down across the league and he's far from the worst. If they cut him, someone will be there to pay him more than necessary.

For sure he could stay in the NFL for awhile if he wants but he's been calculated with his image his entire career and I think he might have some attractive options in the media world, even if most people think he's robotic.

 

[Drake Hater]

He could potentially be out of the NFL

That would be a shock. QB play is down across the league and he's far from the worst. If they cut him, someone will be there to pay him more than necessary.

For sure he could stay in the NFL for awhile if he wants but he's been calculated with his image his entire career and I think he might have some attractive options in the media world, even if most people think he's robotic.

For sure a possibility. But I would expect at least one more stop before that happens so that his time in Denver can get shaded over a little.

 

[LawFitz]

He is scheduled for a $22M option bonus in 2024. It is guaranteed, but it seems that (amount and guarantee) could be renegotiable.

I see little chance he'd give up any guaranteed money. As you stated, this could be (likely is) his last big payday. Non-guaranteed salary amounts, sure; guaranteed portions of the existing contract, no way IMO.

 

[Tau837]

He is scheduled for a $22M option bonus in 2024. It is guaranteed, but it seems that (amount and guarantee) could be renegotiable.

I see little chance he'd give up any guaranteed money. As you stated, this could be (likely is) his last big payday. Non-guaranteed salary amounts, sure; guaranteed portions of the existing contract, no way IMO.

As it stands, if he played out his current contract, he would be paid another $211M over the next 5 seasons (2024-2028).

As it stands, if he gets released this offseason, he will get paid $22M (guaranteed 2024 option bonus) + $17M (guaranteed 2024 salary) = $39M. If he gets released, maybe he signs to play somewhere for $10M/year for 3 years? And if he sees all of that, this path nets him $69M over the next 3 seasons, after which he is presumably a backup or out of the league.

All I'm saying is, there is a big gulf between his current contract and what he will likely make going forward if he is released. Which suggests it could be possible there is room for renegotiation to find a middle ground.

 

[LawFitz]

All I'm saying is, there is a big gulf between his current contract and what he will likely make going forward if he is released. Which suggests it could be possible there is room for renegotiation to find a middle ground.

Totally agreed, except about the part where he lowers any currently guaranteed money. Pretty much never happens. Aaron Rodgers was an exception this past offseason, and how is that working out for him?

 

[Mitchie]

He is scheduled for a $22M option bonus in 2024. It is guaranteed, but it seems that (amount and guarantee) could be renegotiable.

I see little chance he'd give up any guaranteed money. As you stated, this could be (likely is) his last big payday. Non-guaranteed salary amounts, sure; guaranteed portions of the existing contract, no way IMO.

As it stands, if he played out his current contract, he would be paid another $211M over the next 5 seasons (2024-2028).

As it stands, if he gets released this offseason, he will get paid $22M (guaranteed 2024 option bonus) + $17M (guaranteed 2024 salary) = $39M. If he gets released, maybe he signs to play somewhere for $10M/year for 3 years? And if he sees all of that, this path nets him $69M over the next 3 seasons, after which he is presumably a backup or out of the league.

All I'm saying is, there is a big gulf between his current contract and what he will likely make going forward if he is released. Which suggests it could be possible there is room for renegotiation to find a middle ground.

Daniel Jones just got $40M, there's no way he's playing for $10M /year. Doesn't appear to be working out in Denver but could be the right fit for a team with all the other pieces in place. Hell, if Denver just had their defense from last year they'd be like 4-2 this year.

 

[Tau837]

He is scheduled for a $22M option bonus in 2024. It is guaranteed, but it seems that (amount and guarantee) could be renegotiable.

I see little chance he'd give up any guaranteed money. As you stated, this could be (likely is) his last big payday. Non-guaranteed salary amounts, sure; guaranteed portions of the existing contract, no way IMO.

As it stands, if he played out his current contract, he would be paid another $211M over the next 5 seasons (2024-2028).

As it stands, if he gets released this offseason, he will get paid $22M (guaranteed 2024 option bonus) + $17M (guaranteed 2024 salary) = $39M. If he gets released, maybe he signs to play somewhere for $10M/year for 3 years? And if he sees all of that, this path nets him $69M over the next 3 seasons, after which he is presumably a backup or out of the league.

All I'm saying is, there is a big gulf between his current contract and what he will likely make going forward if he is released. Which suggests it could be possible there is room for renegotiation to find a middle ground.

Daniel Jones just got $40M, there's no way he's playing for $10M /year. Doesn't appear to be working out in Denver but could be the right fit for a team with all the other pieces in place. Hell, if Denver just had their defense from last year they'd be like 4-2 this year.

OK, I'll bite. Suppose he is released.

2022 was the worst season of his career. 2023 is not going well; impossible to predict the rest of the season, but it seems likely he will get benched at some point to avoid injury guarantee risk. Let's assume no magic turnaround the rest of this season.

Knowing the other QB situations in the league and that there is a strong incoming QB class, how much do you think he'll get at age 36 coming off the only 3 losing seasons of his career?

EDIT: BTW, that Jones contract was an obvious mistake. No one should be using that as any benchmark at this point.

 

[Stoneworker]

Hell, if Denver just had their defense from last year they'd be like 4-2 this year.

This is true. And personally I'm not saying Russ is cooked, but do believe the next several weeks are pretty crucial. He's just having such a difficult time digesting Payton's system as evidenced by his discomfort in the pocket, indecision, and need to wear a wristband. He needs it to have things start to click pretty quickly IMO.

 

[Mitchie]

He is scheduled for a $22M option bonus in 2024. It is guaranteed, but it seems that (amount and guarantee) could be renegotiable.

I see little chance he'd give up any guaranteed money. As you stated, this could be (likely is) his last big payday. Non-guaranteed salary amounts, sure; guaranteed portions of the existing contract, no way IMO.

As it stands, if he played out his current contract, he would be paid another $211M over the next 5 seasons (2024-2028).

As it stands, if he gets released this offseason, he will get paid $22M (guaranteed 2024 option bonus) + $17M (guaranteed 2024 salary) = $39M. If he gets released, maybe he signs to play somewhere for $10M/year for 3 years? And if he sees all of that, this path nets him $69M over the next 3 seasons, after which he is presumably a backup or out of the league.

All I'm saying is, there is a big gulf between his current contract and what he will likely make going forward if he is released. Which suggests it could be possible there is room for renegotiation to find a middle ground.

Daniel Jones just got $40M, there's no way he's playing for $10M /year. Doesn't appear to be working out in Denver but could be the right fit for a team with all the other pieces in place. Hell, if Denver just had their defense from last year they'd be like 4-2 this year.

OK, I'll bite. Suppose he is released.

2022 was the worst season of his career. 2023 is not going well; impossible to predict the rest of the season, but it seems likely he will get benched at some point to avoid injury guarantee risk. Let's assume no magic turnaround the rest of this season.

Knowing the other QB situations in the league and that there is a strong incoming QB class, how much do you think he'll get at age 36 coming off the only 3 losing seasons of his career?

EDIT: BTW, that Jones contract was an obvious mistake. No one should be using that as any benchmark at this point.

i'd say in neighborhood of 40 M, stand by the statement he's not playing bad this year, people have some recency bias because of last game or two. if he went to a team like the Jets (he won't bc of Rodgers, but hypothetically if Rodgers wasn't there), they would be super bowl contenders

 

[Stoneworker]

stand by the statement he's not playing bad this year, people have some recency bias because of last game or two.

Yes. Recency effect plus the fact that his worst game was in front of a prime-time national TV audience. That's not a good combo for keeping the pitchforks in the shed

 

[Tau837]

He is scheduled for a $22M option bonus in 2024. It is guaranteed, but it seems that (amount and guarantee) could be renegotiable.

I see little chance he'd give up any guaranteed money. As you stated, this could be (likely is) his last big payday. Non-guaranteed salary amounts, sure; guaranteed portions of the existing contract, no way IMO.

As it stands, if he played out his current contract, he would be paid another $211M over the next 5 seasons (2024-2028).

As it stands, if he gets released this offseason, he will get paid $22M (guaranteed 2024 option bonus) + $17M (guaranteed 2024 salary) = $39M. If he gets released, maybe he signs to play somewhere for $10M/year for 3 years? And if he sees all of that, this path nets him $69M over the next 3 seasons, after which he is presumably a backup or out of the league.

All I'm saying is, there is a big gulf between his current contract and what he will likely make going forward if he is released. Which suggests it could be possible there is room for renegotiation to find a middle ground.

Daniel Jones just got $40M, there's no way he's playing for $10M /year. Doesn't appear to be working out in Denver but could be the right fit for a team with all the other pieces in place. Hell, if Denver just had their defense from last year they'd be like 4-2 this year.

OK, I'll bite. Suppose he is released.

2022 was the worst season of his career. 2023 is not going well; impossible to predict the rest of the season, but it seems likely he will get benched at some point to avoid injury guarantee risk. Let's assume no magic turnaround the rest of this season.

Knowing the other QB situations in the league and that there is a strong incoming QB class, how much do you think he'll get at age 36 coming off the only 3 losing seasons of his career?

EDIT: BTW, that Jones contract was an obvious mistake. No one should be using that as any benchmark at this point.

i'd say in neighborhood of 40 M, stand by the statement he's not playing bad this year, people have some recency bias because of last game or two. if he went to a team like the Jets (he won't bc of Rodgers, but hypothetically if Rodgers wasn't there), they would be super bowl contenders

$40M per year?

 

[Mitchie]

He is scheduled for a $22M option bonus in 2024. It is guaranteed, but it seems that (amount and guarantee) could be renegotiable.

I see little chance he'd give up any guaranteed money. As you stated, this could be (likely is) his last big payday. Non-guaranteed salary amounts, sure; guaranteed portions of the existing contract, no way IMO.

As it stands, if he played out his current contract, he would be paid another $211M over the next 5 seasons (2024-2028).

As it stands, if he gets released this offseason, he will get paid $22M (guaranteed 2024 option bonus) + $17M (guaranteed 2024 salary) = $39M. If he gets released, maybe he signs to play somewhere for $10M/year for 3 years? And if he sees all of that, this path nets him $69M over the next 3 seasons, after which he is presumably a backup or out of the league.

All I'm saying is, there is a big gulf between his current contract and what he will likely make going forward if he is released. Which suggests it could be possible there is room for renegotiation to find a middle ground.

Daniel Jones just got $40M, there's no way he's playing for $10M /year. Doesn't appear to be working out in Denver but could be the right fit for a team with all the other pieces in place. Hell, if Denver just had their defense from last year they'd be like 4-2 this year.

OK, I'll bite. Suppose he is released.

2022 was the worst season of his career. 2023 is not going well; impossible to predict the rest of the season, but it seems likely he will get benched at some point to avoid injury guarantee risk. Let's assume no magic turnaround the rest of this season.

Knowing the other QB situations in the league and that there is a strong incoming QB class, how much do you think he'll get at age 36 coming off the only 3 losing seasons of his career?

EDIT: BTW, that Jones contract was an obvious mistake. No one should be using that as any benchmark at this point.

i'd say in neighborhood of 40 M, stand by the statement he's not playing bad this year, people have some recency bias because of last game or two. if he went to a team like the Jets (he won't bc of Rodgers, but hypothetically if Rodgers wasn't there), they would be super bowl contenders

$40M per year?

laugh all you want that's a middle of the road contract these days, Daniel Jones and David Carr range