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QB Russell Wilson, NYG (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ImTheScientist
- Start date
Warren Sharp
@SharpFootball
some wild marks from Russell Wilson last year
he threw 27% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage
#1 highest out of 509 QBs since 2005
he threw 62% of his passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage
#2 highest out of 509 QBs since 2005
Sean Payton had no confidence in Wilson's intermediate passing
the 2023 Broncos had the least amount of intermediate passing of any offense since 2005
Wilson threw just 26% of his passes between 5-15 yards downfield
#1 lowest out of 509 QBs since 2005
it was nothing but record breaking rates of underneath passes and the occasional moon ball downfield
@SharpFootball
some wild marks from Russell Wilson last year
he threw 27% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage
#1 highest out of 509 QBs since 2005
he threw 62% of his passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage
#2 highest out of 509 QBs since 2005
Sean Payton had no confidence in Wilson's intermediate passing
the 2023 Broncos had the least amount of intermediate passing of any offense since 2005
Wilson threw just 26% of his passes between 5-15 yards downfield
#1 lowest out of 509 QBs since 2005
it was nothing but record breaking rates of underneath passes and the occasional moon ball downfield
Stoneworker
Footballguy
I've addressed this in previous posts (including the Sharp Football tweet you re-posted).
However, if a third-party expert is needed to say the exact same things, then check out the below videos from Kurt Warner. Of course Russ did some good things during the season, but those were outweighed by the bad things and missed opportunities.
In Video 1, Warner literally says, "[Wilson] gets to his checkdown so quickly, that it's making me say he's not comfortable with what he's seeing...he's not able to process through the plays (i.e. work through his progressions)...it's literally just peek at one guy, then if you don't have it, then immediately throw to your checkdown" (or bail and run, throw a moonball downfield, or take a sack).
Exhibit A is at 5:50 of the first video, where Wilson in a completely clean pocket is literally staring right at a WIDE open Brandon Johnson 20 yards downfield. But instead of taking that throw, he panics and checks down to his RB for a 2-yard loss.
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Exhibit B is at 6:11 of the second video. Rinse and repeat staring right at a wide open Jeudy for a TD and instead tucking tail and running for 3 yards.
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Rich Eisen discussing
I must have missed it. I apologize.I've addressed this in previous posts (including the Sharp Football tweet you re-posted).
However, if a third-party expert is needed to say the exact same things, then check out the below videos from Kurt Warner. Of course Russ did some good things during the season, but those were outweighed by the bad things and missed opportunities.
In Video 1, Warner literally says, "[Wilson] gets to his checkdown so quickly, that it's making me say he's not comfortable with what he's seeing...he's not able to process through the plays (i.e. work through his progressions)...it's literally just peek at one guy, then if you don't have it, then immediately throw to your checkdown" (or bail and run, throw a moonball downfield, or take a sack).
Exhibit A is at 5:50 of the first video, where Wilson in a completely clean pocket is literally staring right at a WIDE open Brandon Johnson 20 yards downfield. But instead of taking that throw, he panics and checks down to his RB for a 2-yard loss.
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
Exhibit B is at 6:11 of the second video. Rinse and repeat staring right at a wide open Jeudy for a TD and instead tucking tail and running for 3 yards.
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
Those are great links too.
Thank you
massraider
Footballguy
I hope Kurt Warner does some more breakdowns on the regular.
What about Brees not recognizing the offense?
That threw me and messed up many prior arguments I saw people having.
Also, Brees could be largely dink n dunk for stretches of games himself- until he wasn't- but I do absolutely remember Brees fans unhappy in game threads n chats wanting him to air it out more at times.
What about Payton's offense invites a feel of too many short ones?
He does. He has his own site people can subscribe to. He uses YouTube as a tease for the rest of his content. QBconfidential I think
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Unfortunately I can't really speak to the Brees era, just what I observed in Denver
It's pretty common knowledge that the complexity of Payton's offense requires faster info processing and decision-making than most.
Early last season Payton was visibly frustrated with Wilson's inability to get out of the huddle quickly enough and so made him wear an armband. Russ is obviously not dumb, but he often appeared overwhelmed and confused just trying to digest all his options. While he knew the offense, he hadn't mentally internalized it to the point he could play freely.
So Russ played stiff and mechanical and risk-averse, leading him to default to shorter throws instead of risking worse outcomes and therefore even more of Payton's ire.
Whether Wilson can be better in a different system or Payton's Broncos can be better with a different QB is what only time will tell. Maybe both. Maybe neither.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Gerry Dulac
@gerrydulac
·
1m
Russell Wilson already has a connection with the Steelers. He and his wife, Ciara, a Grammy Award-winning singer, are founding partners and equity owners in Evolution Advisers, a joint venture formed by Acrisure, which owns the naming rights to the stadium.
@gerrydulac
·
1m
Russell Wilson already has a connection with the Steelers. He and his wife, Ciara, a Grammy Award-winning singer, are founding partners and equity owners in Evolution Advisers, a joint venture formed by Acrisure, which owns the naming rights to the stadium.
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
·
1h
Before traveling to Pittsburgh today, Russell Wilson stopped in New Jersey for what one source described as “an exploratory meeting” with the Giants, per league sources.
Wilson is in Pittsburgh today to meet with the Steelers, per sources.
@AdamSchefter
·
1h
Before traveling to Pittsburgh today, Russell Wilson stopped in New Jersey for what one source described as “an exploratory meeting” with the Giants, per league sources.
Wilson is in Pittsburgh today to meet with the Steelers, per sources.
rockaction
Footballguy
This guy is going to get paid in 2025, isn't he? Teams are that desperate, and he's not terrible.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I want the Giants to draft a QB for selfish reasons. I don't want Nabers or Odunze to wind up there. Hell, I don't want any of the top WRs to end up there.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I want them to draft a QB Just so Alt drops
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You want them to take an (Alt)ernate course of actionI want them to draft a QB Just so Alt drops
I don't think they need a WR so badly.
I believe Hyatt will break out and Wandale is fine and they have a slew of others.
Carl Banks is my fave Giants writer/personality lately and he has them giving up on Jones if he doesn't play like 2022 BUT he mentions they are giving him 2024 so some rookie QB would have time to develop.
Due to that, I see them more onto Rattler or whoever ya like in 2nd or 3rd round.
Also I'm the only one outside of Tommy Cutlets family that wants to see him play more
The out in 2025 would cause them to eat 20+ mil in dead cap.
I think that's why everyone projects a developing rookie or cheaper veteran like Minshew.
I wonder if they weren't finding out if Russell would be cheap.
One thing is he stopped by the Giants for a visit. He's visiting with the Steelers all weekend. It doesn't seem the same worded that way
JosinaAnderson
@JosinaAnderson
Heard Russell Wilson had a great meeting in Pittsburgh so far. I was told he sat with #Steelers OC Arthur Smith ‘for hours’ and that ‘he looked happy.’ I was also told Wilson ‘did his homework’ reaching out to some players in advance, per source.
Mike Tomlin moves like the ‘g’ in lasagna, so we’ll see how much carryover there is after RW retreats to his quarters. #Steelers
@JosinaAnderson
Heard Russell Wilson had a great meeting in Pittsburgh so far. I was told he sat with #Steelers OC Arthur Smith ‘for hours’ and that ‘he looked happy.’ I was also told Wilson ‘did his homework’ reaching out to some players in advance, per source.
Mike Tomlin moves like the ‘g’ in lasagna, so we’ll see how much carryover there is after RW retreats to his quarters. #Steelers
(Russell met with Arthur Smith. They go way back to when North Carolina was recruiting him. He ended up at N.C. State.)
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
WIlson obviously isn't what he used to be, but he'd still be an upgrade over everyone the Steelers had last year. And they can get him by not having to pay him all that much. Seems almost too easy.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Obviously that is the case for a one-year deal. But why would Wilson agree to that?
Russ is going to want starter money and a starter's role for two years minimum. If he were willing to take a pay cut and backup role/QB competition for 2025, it is most likely Payton and Broncos would have kept him despite everything else.
So something has to give. Whether it's Russ taking a one-year deal or another team paying up for 2025 will all depend on the market.
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I've been under the impression he won't. That he's going to want some money guaranteed in 2025. That does not mean, not even remotely mean, he's guaranteed a roster spot in 2025 it's just a means to circumvent him getting paid on top of what Denver owes him this year. There would be ways to design the contract.
The only thing that makes any sense to me was for not wanting money guaranteed in future years was if he was guaranteed the starting job. I can't see that happening with the Steelers.
My first thought with him visiting the Steelers was that they were using each other but that's not a typical Steelers approach and not something they'd be spending most of the day with him to do so now I'm not so sure. But if he just took a one year deal for near league minimum it would be hard for me to wrap my head around why he'd do that right now, what he'd be gaining vs at minimum waiting.
Was not sure what you meant here? Russ is in a position where his actual pay for the 2024 season is likely not a factor in his decision making but he's likely trying to put himself in a position where his prospects for pay and starting improve for the 2025 season. There is no talk right now he's willing to take a pay cut or backup role for 2025.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
I'm saying it is well documented that the Broncos tried to restructure Wilson's contract. And also widely presumed that that restructuring included a pay cut for 2025 (and probably a discussion about a diminishing role over time).
So Russ likely told Denver to pound sand, with the thought he could do better on the open market (i.e. not as much pay cut and committed long-term starter role somewhere else and closer to his original Denver deal).
Of course I'm speculating, but I do believe at the end of the day that Denver's renegotiated offer to Wilson will be at least as good as what he finds on the open market.
In other words, it's likely he will find he is no better than a short-term bridge/backup QB and will be paid ($ and contract length) as such. But that's not what's currently in his head.
Hopefully that makes better sense.
I understand what you are saying, thanks for clarification, but it does not make sense to me from Wilson's angle.
I totallly agree Denver would have kept him if he agreed to a pay cut in 2025. My guess is they would have kept him even if he did not agree to a pay cut but agreed to waive the clause that guaranteed his 2025 pay if he remained on the roster. Feel pretty sure about this, and then they'd likely have just chopped him next off-season instead of this one.
What I don't understand is why Wilson would ever agree to such a thing and why playing for the league minimum in 2024 when Denver is paying him would have any bearing on what he'd try and do in 2025. I don't get why he'd accept a pay cut for 2025 when he's got a chance to rehab his worth in 2024. That would not make sense to me for him.
Gatorade
Footballguy
Then where would we get our hot sauce ?
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Yes. Good points. That wouldn't be rational since Wilson clearly believes he is better than what the Broncos thought he was. But I'm skeptical that a a 35+ y/o QB, non-pocket passer, is going to rehab his worth ala Baker Mayfield in a new system in 2024 to a level greater than what the Broncos (likely) offered. Good for him wanting a chance to prove me and Denver wrong, however.
i think it was obvious that he wasn't going to restructure, they wanted out of the injury guarantee which Russ was never going to agree to.
Most likely he'll be the clear starter this year somewhere and not in a bridge/backup role. The fact that he's dirt cheap will help. He's making $39M this year but he wants to play. if a year is added i'm sure there's a way to design a contract that gives a team an out. what that is will depend on the marketplace.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
But the only teams showing interest are PIT and NYG, both of whom (supposedly) have starters. Perhaps LV would make sense.
66 QB’s started in the NFL last year.
The only way I don’t see him having a chance to start some games is if he rushed into a deal now where the path was not clear. Which is why I struggle with idea he’d sign with someone like the Steelers unless 2025 guaranteed pay is built in the deal.
Just putting myself in his shoes there is zero chance I’m taking a one year minimum pay deal anytime soon. Need assurances of role or guaranteed pay that won’t be offset by the money Denver owes him.
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massraider
Footballguy
We will find out sooner enough, but it's pretty interesting the wide gulf there is in his perceived value. Some people will be surprised whatever deal he gets.
If he's brought in to those teams he will be the clear starter, i suppose there's a chance he sucks and gets benched but going into the season he'll be the starter.
LV is showing interest and depending on how dominoes fall maybe he ends up another team like Minny or NE
Tau837
Footballguy
I agree with this. Whether PIT, LV, or possibly NYG, if they sign Wilson to start in 2024 on a vet minimum salary, the expectation will be that Wilson is the opening day starter.
Sure, if he flops, he could lose the job to the current incumbent QB, who will remain on the roster. But they are not expecting him to flop.
Given that line of thinking, they would have every reason to expect him to also be able to carry that over into 2025 and be the starter again. That implies they will be willing to structure a contract that is acceptable to Wilson in 2025, but gives the team a reasonable out in the event of a 2024 flop. So there will almost certainly have to be a healthy amount of guaranteed money for 2025.
The only alternative to this leads to what @menobrown has been saying:
rockaction
Footballguy
I've been trying to argue about 2025 on a different message board and have been rebuffed. They think he's going to sign for the minimum in 2024 and that's it.
I tried to lay out my reasoning but they've disagreed to the point of dismissal. I'm incredulous that a bunch of guys voluntarily starting a football thread and discussing football don't get this. Then again, it is a music forum that I'm participating in.
Bless you guys. You understand. Russ is likely going nowhere without guaranteed money in 2025. It wouldn't make sense for him to do anything else. There's going to be 2025 guarantees, and a team will do it because he's such a minimal cap hit this year and the team that signs him will kick that can down the road until 2025. I thought my reasoning was faulty, but thanks to Stoneworker, meno, and Just Win Baby, I've found out this afternoon that I'm not totally crazy.
Anyway, I appreciate this place. Peace.
I tried to lay out my reasoning but they've disagreed to the point of dismissal. I'm incredulous that a bunch of guys voluntarily starting a football thread and discussing football don't get this. Then again, it is a music forum that I'm participating in.
Bless you guys. You understand. Russ is likely going nowhere without guaranteed money in 2025. It wouldn't make sense for him to do anything else. There's going to be 2025 guarantees, and a team will do it because he's such a minimal cap hit this year and the team that signs him will kick that can down the road until 2025. I thought my reasoning was faulty, but thanks to Stoneworker, meno, and Just Win Baby, I've found out this afternoon that I'm not totally crazy.
Anyway, I appreciate this place. Peace.
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I blame the media.
Every single one I've heard keeps parroting the same thing about him just signing for league minimum because off the offsets. I have not heard a single media member indicate he has other options. It actually got to me so much I thought there was some kind of language which closed the loophole on taking 2025 guaranteed pay.
The casual fan or one not breaking down contract details would never know, they just keep hearing people they trust in media telling them over and over again he's a league minimum guy for 2024 while never mentioning his other options so I don't blame them.
What I do get frustrated with are the people who know he has options past just accepting the league minimum but want to say he's not in a position to make any such demands.
rockaction
Footballguy
After I laid out my reasoning, this is what the guys who originally said that he would sign for the minimum claimed. They said the media was overhyping his options because they have nothing to report on otherwise.
I've decided to let the argument rest (thankfully it was never remotely contentious) as I'm new on that board, and it's a light-hearted football thread. But I think that reasoning is incorrect. He has teams interested, and the state of the league is such that he will have options. I have a hard time believing he'll sign anywhere without being named the starter and having guaranteed money in 2025.
I could be wrong, but it sort of beggars belief that he'd go to go any team where that isn't the case.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's all I've seen. That he'll come at the vet minimum. I tried to find one—just one—astute person that covers this that had put what I was saying in print, and you know how many I found?
Zero. The people covering this aren't really that up on the situation. And they don't seem to be forward-thinking or sharp, either. That's all I'll say about it.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
But how many options does he actually have?
By my count there are seven clear 2024 starter openings (CHI, NE, WAS, ATL, DEN, MIN and LV). Plus two more situations that are "competitive" (PIT, NYG). So that's 9 on the demand side.
On the supply side, there are arguably six 2024 starter-worthy draftees (Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Penix, Nix). Plus three more FA (Cousins, Fields, Wilson). And then add two more incumbent starters (D.Jones, K. Pickett).
So that's 11 guys competing for 9 jobs.
Playing devil's advocate, why would any GM give Russ significant 2025 guaranteed money unless or until he actually wins a job for 2024 against some pretty decent (and mostly younger) competition?
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Stoneworker
Footballguy
Absolutely he could do that if the market fails to deliver what he (ostensibly) wants. The bid/ask spread is the key to this entire conversation
My counter to you would be to simply look at what some Qb's signed to be pure backups are paid. Not guys competing for a job, signed to be pure backups.
Tyrod Taylor got $8m last year. Darnold $5-6m. Minshew $5.5M. Jacoby I think qualifies as signed to be a pure backup also at $8.5M.
You used the term "significant" 2025 guarantees. I did not use that term. But we should all agree Wilson has a better market, in a higher cap year, than that lot I just presented you and would ideally be signing to contend for a starting job. All of which suggests he should be paid more then those players.
We should all agree if offsets were not an issue and he was actually keeping what Denver owes him and what his new team would pay him for 2024 that amount would be north of $8.5m.
So in summary when those of us suggests he should negotiates guarantees for 2025 what we are talking about, at least what I'm talking about, is that he's essentially getting paid in 2025 for what he gives you in 2024, it's just pushed out so he can keep that money and what Denver owes him.
