It's way to early to put a bust label on Lance. I will say that he doesn't appear to fit this current offensive scheme very well. But Shanny could definitely change that. I still think Lance will eventually become every bit the star they thought he would be. Staying on the Lance train....
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QB Trey Lance, LAC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
facook
Footballguy
The correct answer was: "I will be working on any and everything our staff asks me to." Sigh.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Sigh is right. Honestly. What a moron.
Oh oh. Red flag. Not good for Lance owners. You would expect Lance to put the most work he's ever done now that he's got serious competition.
joey
Footballguy
We know as little about Trey Lance as we’ve ever known about a 1st round QB who’s been in the league for 2 full years and had so much draft capital spent on him by the team that drafted him.
Not panicing or overreacting Just facing the reality that we don’t know much of anything after 2 years of holding this guy.
Well we also know his accuracy is really poor in his limited action and he could/should improve his throwing motion
facook
Footballguy
It's a reaction. Not an overreaction. I want my team's qb to be a leader and say and do the right things. Don't think that's too much to ask.
Wingnut
Footballguy
I'm sure he'll be working with the coaching staff and will be addressing whatever they feel they need to coach him up on.
His answer doesn't bother me a bit. The 12 or so quarters he's played have been spread out, and he's thrown a total of 102 passes in the NFL. Almost 30% of those were in a monsoon week 1 @ Chicago this season (and he only threw 3 passes week 2 vs Seattle before getting hurt). The rest of his NFL throws (71 total) were spread out over 4 games in 2021. In those games he threw 1, 18, 29, and 23 passes.
To me, that's nowhere near enough of a sample size to judge his accuracy. He hasn't been able to settle in and play more than a game at a time other then 2 games in 2021, where he threw 18 passes vs Seattle week 4, and then 29 @ Arizona week 5 in his first ever NFL start. After that, he didn't throw another pass til week 16 against Houston, where he completed 69.5% of his passes.
So ima wait to see him plays some games and gets settled in before I judge him as a thrower.
His answer doesn't bother me a bit. The 12 or so quarters he's played have been spread out, and he's thrown a total of 102 passes in the NFL. Almost 30% of those were in a monsoon week 1 @ Chicago this season (and he only threw 3 passes week 2 vs Seattle before getting hurt). The rest of his NFL throws (71 total) were spread out over 4 games in 2021. In those games he threw 1, 18, 29, and 23 passes.
To me, that's nowhere near enough of a sample size to judge his accuracy. He hasn't been able to settle in and play more than a game at a time other then 2 games in 2021, where he threw 18 passes vs Seattle week 4, and then 29 @ Arizona week 5 in his first ever NFL start. After that, he didn't throw another pass til week 16 against Houston, where he completed 69.5% of his passes.
So ima wait to see him plays some games and gets settled in before I judge him as a thrower.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
No matter where you stand on Lance, the clock is ticking for him. Two years in the league and the team still has no idea what they have. The only momentum he has going into next season is the 7th rounder that looked head and shoulders better during his chances on the field so far has a serious injury to recover from. I loved the potential when Lance was drafted because I am a huge Shanahan believer, however the slow start may cost Lance his chance to be the guy in SF.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
At the moment that appears to be a pretty safe prediction, barring Purdy recovers from injury with no lingering issues.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I don't think that's at all clear.
Boston
Footballguy
The Purdy part yes...I don't see Lance simply being content with being a career backup with the Niners...unless he is a total disaster, he is going to want to get a chance to start at some point somewhere else.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not sure how that can be said about Lance given he was injured. People talk about Lance like he’s had plenty of opportunity and was a bust. That is ridiculous .
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Boston
Footballguy
How do you know that? The Niners gave up a ton for him and he is still an unknown quantity and with Purdy's injury he has a lot of value for them...it makes no sense for them to not get something valuable for him if they are even thinking of dealing him.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Well, let’s put it this way. He would cost a hell of a lot less than moving up to 1.01 and would make sense if the Colts don’t think either Young or Stroud is a slam dunk.
Boston
Footballguy
I would think the price is still substantial and you still get the unknown factor you get with Young or Stroud.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I disagree. He would be a lot cheaper than moving up to 1.01. At most a player and a 2nd round pick, or conditional to a 1st., probably in 2024.
Boston
Footballguy
He may be cheaper but why would they do that? What happens if Purdy's rehab goes south...they would not have a QB...sorry but you aren't getting Lance at a discount this offseason...it makes absolutely no sense for San Fran to make that deal.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yeah, agreed. If SF brass still believes in Lance this would be the worst time to trade him because a) his value has bottomed out, b) Purdy might not be healthy for 12 months which would make Lance the starter, c) Lance might actually beat Purdy for the starting job.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
It does if they’ve soured on him. Personally I would rather have Jordan Love cheap If Rodgers stays in Green Bay.
Todem
Footballguy
How can you sour on a guy who was named the starter, taken 3rd overall and broke his ankle week 2?
I don’t think the Niners have soured at all and the unfortunate injury to Purdy has pretty much given Lance a clear path to win the job again if he is deserving of it.
They have a great problem. Two cheap young QB’s. I don’t see why or how the Niners deal Lance.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think you are making more of my statement than I intended. I am not labeling Lance a bust, but I am saying Purdy has looked better on the field so far in their young careers. I would anticipate if both are healthy there will be a competition. Based on what I seen with my eyes I would wager Purdy wins that and is the week one starter in 2023. Can Lance improve and play as good as Purdy has? Yes, he can. I would also wager that Purdy could improve as well from his already impressive start.
I have him as my possible last drop now only because of Purdy's play to end the season. If he starts he'll be pressed to Play alot better than he started last year with the emergence of Purdy. I may prefer Stroud or Young as better options.
Saw a bit of SF late in the year. I'm still baffled as to what folks are seeing in Purdy. To me HE looks like the career backup. Love the poise, not impressed by the talent.
But it's a bit early to make definitive long term predictions on either of these kids.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Is he Mac Jones- ish?
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
With Shanahan’s playcalling you just need an efficient guy to run the ship and the rest takes care of itself. Look how Jimmy G performed. An upside guy with wheels like Lance could make this offense nearly indefensible, but he has to be able to make reads and be accurate. Both sample sizes are small, but Purdy has shown he can do that while Lance IMO looked uncomfortable playing that role (albeit as mentioned a small sample). The eye test as well as statistics give Purdy the advantage at this point, although I am well aware things can change.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Rich Eisen on Twitter:
"It was hard... ups and downs throughout the year." - Trey Lance
Loved this honest chat with @49ers QB @treylance09 on how this season was for him, his rehab and the coming competition with @brockpurdy13:
Video:
Can't wait to see what he can do
"It was hard... ups and downs throughout the year." - Trey Lance
Loved this honest chat with @49ers QB @treylance09 on how this season was for him, his rehab and the coming competition with @brockpurdy13:
Video:
Can't wait to see what he can do
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I agree with everything you said in your last two post's but I think there is at least some reasons why you can start to lose a little faith, starting with he really hasn't played meaningful football in three years. That can set a guy back. With that said, I agree the book isn't written and we ultimately have no real idea yet.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Good clip and he appears to have the right attitude going into next year. It will be a fun battle to watch this off-season. I hope Lance proves to be everything the Niners thought he could be when drafting him, but he has got an uphill climb.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I think Lance will be the guy, and Purdy the backup. Purdy is basically Jimmy G+ to me, some upside, but not a ton. He played great this year, albeit he played a ton of lower level talent and was propped up by a great defense. Lance has the upside and at this point, you would think he's got to have that playbook down. Kyle Shanahan seems like the guy who wants to really see what he got in a player like Lance before moving on completely. If Trey plays a full season, I think he would put up some great stats in the system and get the Niners back to the playoffs again for sure. Big IF, I get it. Just my take.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think you’re severely underestimating what Purdy did.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I literally said he played great this year. We can split hairs as to "why" I guess, but the consensus from what I've seen is the NFC was very very weak this year. Considering all this is why I think Lance can "truly" excel in this SF system.
zamboni
Footballguy
Fair enough - the point though is that he still came in and played like a seasoned veteran and ran the offense with poise and efficiency. I doubt the coaching staff is attributing his success to weakish teams, nor should we. But we'll see what the coaching staff does - it's a crapshoot right now.
Wingnut
Footballguy
As a 49er fan, I dont see how anyone can say they think Trey will be good or bad. We just havent seen enough of him to know, and I follow the team 24/7/365.
As far as Purdy, the main reason hes so good in the SF offense is because he processes things so quickly. Probably better than both Jimmy and Trey. That inlcudes reading defense and recognizing coverages pre-snap. On every play, Brock knows where everyone is supposed to be. So far, Trey hasnt shows he can do that but hes gonna get his chance to show what hes got.
I really like Purdy and Im not so sure Trey would beat him in a camp QB competition. Fortunately for Trey, he wont have to beat Brock in camp, but I wouldnt be surprised if Brock is behind center come week 1 (assuming his surgery and recovery go as planned)
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Terpman22
Footballguy
For sure, I agree with this sentiment. At the same time, I doubt the GM wants to "give up" on the guy they traded a big package for without seeing him get his shot. What will Purdy do if he is not named starter? Surely he doesn't have the cache/leverage to demand a trade at this point, nor do I think he'd get a lot of value in return. Lance on the other hand, due to pedigree, etc, what have you, would probably get the Niners more pieces back if they were to trade a guy. Agree on it being a crapshoot also! Ceiling wise, I just feel Lance offers a higher one, but that's why they play!
Terpman22
Footballguy
To be fair, probably a little unbiased opinion/wishful thinking on my part as I got a pretty big stack of Trey Lance rookie cards I was hoping to send in for grading around mid season (before the season started) ahahah. My thinking seems to have been right just can't predict injuries and all that.
zamboni
Footballguy
The 49ers are in a great spot either way, assuming both guys return to health. I’m a Lance owner, so it was very eye opening to see what Purdy did and have some concern that Lance may be nothing more than an elite athlete with a huge pedigree - rather than a quality NFL QB. As with other Lance owners, I’m obviously hoping he gets his chance again.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I stand by my prior take: the job is Purdy’s to lose at this point.
He has a ready to roll capability that we haven’t seen from Lance. A feel for the fake that’s rare, and a ton of moxie to make big plays off script.
That said, we may have seen Purdy’s ceiling. That’s not an insult - he’s a winning QB, especially on a team that has a ton of YAC weapons.
Lance may well prove to be a better athlete, better runner, and have a bigger arm. His ability to process is a question mark, and until we know that he can read defenses, he’s still a black box uUside for days and potentially higher ceiling than Purdy with a Hurts comp…but we just don’t know yet.
Depending on how long Purdy is out, we may yet find out since Lance is expected to be fine for OTAs & training camp.
Health-wise, it might well be Lance under center for the start of 2023.
Once Purdy comes back, if Lance isn’t absolutely balling out, it will be 13 under center again.
And then who knows what Lance’s future holds.
He has a ready to roll capability that we haven’t seen from Lance. A feel for the fake that’s rare, and a ton of moxie to make big plays off script.
That said, we may have seen Purdy’s ceiling. That’s not an insult - he’s a winning QB, especially on a team that has a ton of YAC weapons.
Lance may well prove to be a better athlete, better runner, and have a bigger arm. His ability to process is a question mark, and until we know that he can read defenses, he’s still a black box uUside for days and potentially higher ceiling than Purdy with a Hurts comp…but we just don’t know yet.
Depending on how long Purdy is out, we may yet find out since Lance is expected to be fine for OTAs & training camp.
Health-wise, it might well be Lance under center for the start of 2023.
Once Purdy comes back, if Lance isn’t absolutely balling out, it will be 13 under center again.
And then who knows what Lance’s future holds.
Why does Lance have to be balling out if they're winning? If Lance is playing at a competent level why would he be replaced? I would still think as with any other inexperienced QB that there's going to be a leaning curve. If Shanahan did that then you might as well trade him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The point is that if Lance shows competence & Purdy comes back, the job is Purdy’s.
If Lance balls out, he will likely keep the job.
I’m not sure why this is a question - Purdy has already demonstrated a high level of play. Lance would have to exceed that to take the job.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
I don’t get this. Purdy did well and won but he didn’t “ball out” and it wasn’t against good defenses. He made a few nice plays against Dallas but (IMO) didn’t perform at such a high level to be named the franchise guy, for sure.
If Lance is winning and playing at a comparable level, do you really think Shannahan will bench the guy who’s winning?
It might not be fair, but with Lance’s potential, I have no doubt he’d remain the starter if he’s winning and competent. (Which is the level purdy performed)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s a gut feeling. Purdy brings intangibles that Lance apparently did not. Purdy has a good pocket clock, good instincts for when to go off script, and an uncanny knack for knowing where his WRs will be when he does.
As such, Lance would have to display more than just a similar level of competence with the on schedule throws - he would also need to display that “it” factor that Purdy has in order to keep the job, IMO.
All this is assuming Purdy isn’t ready for the regular season.
there’s more to the position than doing the bare minimum. Purdy has qualities to his play that are seemingly rare in the NFL.
I’m not entirely sure they’re things that can be coached up. Right now we don’t know if Lance has those qualities. If he starts and doesn’t display them, then I’d think it’s fair to suggest that Purdy will get the job back when he’s ready.
