@JoeA_NFL
Tyler Shough's Age Doesn't Matter
Many prominent analysts agree that Tyler Shough has arguably the best tape of any of the QBs in the 2025 draft class. Greg Cosell, Nate Tice, Mina Kimes—the list goes on. If you’re just looking at who played football at the highest level in 2024, many agree that Shough is either best or close to it. “If he were 21, 22 years old, he’s going in the first round.” (Nate Tice).
The drawback, these people argue, is that Shough is maxxed out because he is already 25 years old. How do they figure? I mean this very seriously – why do people believe that Tyler Shough is closer to his ceiling than other QB prospects? How did he develop his game during the 2020 season that was marred by COVID? How did he hone his skills when he missed almost all of 2021 with a broken clavicle? How did master his craft while missing the 2022 season with a broken leg? Was he navigating pockets and reading defenses from the hospital bed while he missed the vast majority of the 2023 season with another broken leg? I can see how he may have developed his pre-snap understanding by going through 6 offseason programs, but we see QBs continue to develop their pre-snap cognition into their 40s.
Frankly, I think Shough has the most capacity to grow and develop in this class. Sure—he’s old. People don’t improve at skills by nature of having birthdays, though. People improve via practice.
Tyler Shough has taken over 1000 fewer snaps than Jaxson Dart. Shough has played only half has many snaps of football as Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders. He has very little time on task. If it takes 10,000 repetitions to master something, as Malcolm Gladwell famously hypothesized, Shough is the most unpolished of the bunch. The most polished, most impressive performer is the one who has the least experience? That sounds like… a good thing, doesn’t it?
The case for Shough’s development doesn’t just end with his relative inexperience, though. Shough is clearly the tallest, at 6’5. He ran his 40-yard dash in 4.62 seconds. That’s as good or better than any other QB in the class, with the exception of Jalen Milroe. Shough also has the strongest arm, with an easy 60 yards of range. Again, I ask: why is the most physically gifted, least experienced player the one with the least room to develop? Because he’s old? Because he missed 3 seasons due to freak injuries, and 25 year old players rapidly decay?
Frankly, I don’t understand the argument that Shough should have looked polished and excellent in 2024 because he was 25 years old. He missed 3 straight years due to serious injuries. Shouldn’t he have been rusty? Shouldn’t we have expected him to struggle to rediscover his game?
When Deshaun Watson sat out for a year despite being totally healthy, most assumed he would struggle upon his return, and slowly build himself back up due to “rust”. When Shough misses almost 3 straight seasons with broken bones... we assume he's going to look better than everyone else because he learned so much on crutches? How does that make sense? How can Shough learn more from a hospital bed than, say, Cam Ward learned while starting at Washington State?
If you want argue that Shough is just too fragile, go ahead. I’m not that kind of doctor. I defer to the physicians and specialists who have actually tested Shough out. If the man has brittle bones, I would stay away too! But we have to put the medicals aside for a moment.
If you want to argue that he is old, thus diminishing his longevity… I point to Matthew Stafford, who is playing into his late 30s despite a reconstructed back.
If you want to argue that the film and production in 2024 weren’t good enough, even if he were just 21 years old, I would ask you to please bet on football games.
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me over here talking who keeps switching between Sanders and Milroe as my QB2 in the class lol. I probably just ruined whatever small shred of credibility I may have had with that statement. But with all the question marks and meh-ness I see in them, I find the (very slim chance of) upside with Milroe to be more enticing. I'm lucky enough to not be in a huge QB need in any of my SF leagues, so I've been easily avoiding taking any of these guys at their current ADPs.
