Chaka
Footballguy
My bad, I'm heading into 72 hours without alcohol and I think it has impacted my funny receptors. I should have been clued in by your terrible nicknames.
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QBs who are likely to earn $50 Million per year on their next contract whether you like it or not (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
Chaka
Footballguy
100% generally means doing everything you can to help your team win. Right, wrong or otherwise Cousins, like many other players, didn't.
Chaka
Footballguy
Johnson has 11 starts at RT (All Pioneer Conference selection), 11 starts at LT (3rd team all ACC), 18 starts at LG (All ACC 1st or 2nd team).
I am not 100% that he will be their RT but I think that's why they drafted him, absolutely. Even if he ends up as a guard, their line got markedly better, on paper, when they drafted him.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Is this thread dedicated to reinforcing @Ministry of Pain's love for the Dolphins and dreamful aspirations of Tua being a great QB?
At the end of the day, I have seen nothing from Tua to put him in the category of a Murray, Mahomes, Rodgers, Herbert, Allen or anyone with elite arm strength. If you have to find the fastest guys in the draft and pay Waddle $30 Million/Year - I'm not sure Tua is worth the $50 Million/Year number. The key is for Tua to recognize that and be satisfied with the $30-35 Million number.
At the end of the day, I have seen nothing from Tua to put him in the category of a Murray, Mahomes, Rodgers, Herbert, Allen or anyone with elite arm strength. If you have to find the fastest guys in the draft and pay Waddle $30 Million/Year - I'm not sure Tua is worth the $50 Million/Year number. The key is for Tua to recognize that and be satisfied with the $30-35 Million number.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Fair enough. I do think the OL will be improved but every depth chart I see(4/4 of the ones I generally pay attention to) list Storm Johnson as the starting RT after the draft and FA. That's the same Storm Johnson that I personally gave the "Annual Nate Kaeding Award" for single handedly knocking the chargers out of contention in the most important game of their season.
With the 195th pick in the draft they also drafted Jamaree Salyer who is also projected to be a guard but started a few games at T in college before being kicked inside to G in college. I really liked that pick and Storm Johnson is so bad it's certainly conceivable he could get beat out by the #195 pick that wasn't able to hold his job as an OT in college.
People like to make fun of the Bengals for being cheap over the years etc but at the end of their season they had glaring needs all across the OL. But they addressed those needs. And they did so BEFORE the draft so they could address other needs at value in the draft. Sometimes to me it seem like telesco is a submarine captain obsessed with improving the radar, the torpedoes, the silent propulsion, etc and then somebody asks him, "Did anyone plug that gaping hole that kept us from leaving port on the last mission?". He's trying to match up better in the AFC title game without addressing the reason he can't make the playoffs in the first place.
He and the spanos family can all enjoy dementia together as far as I'm concerned but it's just interesting we hear this hype every year that the chargers are so improved than they were the year before. For those that weren't paying attention last year please concentrate your attention on #74....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeyrMLmCBOo
... and vintage telesco decides that's the one position that doesn't need to be upgraded this year.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
If the Dolphins thought that Tua was a $30mil QB when it comes time for his next contract they would simply move on imo. Either a veteran or trading multiple picks in the draft to get the guy they believe in. The QB draft class in 2023 will be much, much better than it was this year. Maybe at the top, maybe not. But just overall there are going to be a ton more QB's taken in the first two rounds.
Goff has 2 more years on his contract after this one - everyone has just assumed that Detroit was going to cut him after this year because he's making 30 mil/yr.
At this point, that is starting to look like a bargain.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Desuan Watson's cap hit next year 'LIKELY' will be NOT be $50 million. Reportedly a 'A LARGE PORTION' of it will be converted into a bonus.babydemon90 said:
-------------------------------------------
Jason Strine@StrineSports
Replying to
@_PeteSmith_
A large portion of that Watson 2023 number will likely be converted to a signing bonus of sorts to help with cap as well
------------------------
John Kozak@johndkozak
15hReplying to @StrineSports
and
@_PeteSmith_
Can you explain why teams don’t this every year with every player.
------------------------
Jason Strine@StrineSports
My understanding is a bonus structure like this requires fluid cash to pay so the ownership has to be willing to pay the money in one lump sum
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Jimmy Haslam is cash rich/fluid so he can pay out large bonus' before the season begins instead of spreading those payments out over the course of a season with game checks. Many owners don't have tens of millions sitting around of they'd do the same IF they want to retain cap space.
If the report is accuate 'A LARGE PORTION' of Watson's salary converted into a bonus will save 'tens of millions' in cap space for the Browns in 2023.
Last edited by a moderator:
Chaka
Footballguy
Wat? Tua's definitely a Captain Checkdown but let's be a little fair He's only entering his third season after coming off a catastrophic leg injury. Bad as some think he may be he's still 13-8 as a starter and completed 68% of his passes last season. And he just turned 24. What insane standard are we judging people on when we say they are finished before their third year even though they win games and are, at worst, competent at their jobs?
I like Brian Flores as a coach, I think he got a raw deal in Miami on many levels but I also think he got what he deserved on many other levels. He's stubborn as a mule and Tua was clearly a mandate pick from Stephen Ross. Flores hamstrung him from the start. Yo-yoing with Ryan Fitzpatrick was a foolish pride move with zero upside and hurt the development of his young QB. It ended up costing him and Tua.
Cousins is also competent and puts up nice year end stats but he's a .500 QB and 33-29-1 in four seasons with Minnesota. We know what we are getting from him, a fringe playoff team. He contends for Super Bowls on the same level as the Trent Dilfers, Brad Johnson's & Jeff Hostetlers of the NFL world.
Cousins has been a fine QB but going into 2022 I think I take Tua because I think he has far more potential than Cousins particularly at this stage of their careers.
FTR he'll probably fail because most QBs fail, Cousins has failed. But if I had to bet on which one could actually earn that $50 mil scrilla, I take Tua.
Chaka
Footballguy
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Unless I'm misunderstanding the OP, I'm surprised Russell Wilson hasn't been included.
He's only under contract through 2023 as part of a 4-year/$140 million deal. Just 33 y/o and Broncos will likely need to restructure next year.
If Rodgers can break the bank at 38, so can Russ at 34.
He's only under contract through 2023 as part of a 4-year/$140 million deal. Just 33 y/o and Broncos will likely need to restructure next year.
If Rodgers can break the bank at 38, so can Russ at 34.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Brent Sobleski@brentsobleskibabydemon90 said:
Anyone care to guess which quarterback has the biggest salary-cap number this fall?
10:50 AM · May 7, 2022·TweetDeck
Chaka
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
For those thinking MoP has a hard on for Tua, you are barking up the wrong tree. This is about QB economics in General. Cleveland et al have basically broken the QB pay model (much like Cousins did when he went to Minny, etc). Las Vegas broke the WR model (with help from the Miami Dolphins)
So, what does this mean? Well, good QBs are going to get paid, and likely a pretty large amount of the Cap. Gone are the days of Tom Brady taking less to make the rest of his team better (or, to be fair, Bill B being such a cheapskate that he hoards money and draft picks). Maybe Mac Jones does the same thing but likely Bill keeps mac viable enough to win games but not stellar enough to ask for the payday.
I digress: Herbert, Burrow, Murray, are all on the "big payday" train. Tua, Wilson, and some of the second year guys are on the bubble. The good news (for the NFL) is Qbs are playing longer so the lack of quality at the QB position isn't as bad as it looked like it would be.
We will likely see 4 tiers of QBs (not including players on their first contract. I am talking about Qbs either on or approaching their second one)
1) Stud who gets paid. You know who they are.
2) The QB Divorcees. Guys who have worn out their welcome, or Teams who do not see eye to eye with their signal caller. Those teams will want to jettison this dead weight as soon as the milk goes sour. Wentz is he posterboy for this group along with Goff. Brees was part of this group when he went to New Orleans (Over Miami, sigh...) In this group I would likely link up a guy like Rivers or Matt Ryan. Tier one players for most of their careers but their teams moved on and they have a few more seasons in the sun (I guess Brady kind of sits here as well) or just wanted that change of scenery to advance their careers (I guess Watson is kind of both 1 and 2 here)
3) The bidding war "better than Journeyman" QB. I think this tier is a dying breed bc it has guys like Tannyhill and Cousins in it. (Tannyhill was a Tier 2 guy when he signed that second contract with Miami). If Miami sours on Tua this year he likely will fall into this tier (or Tier 4). Carr kind of falls into here even though he is still with the same team.
4) The true Journeyman.
As long as the draft keeps producing guys with talent (unlike the lean years where maybe 1 or 2 guys were considered good prospects) teams will all fish for Tier 1 (or hold onto tier one guys until the wheels fall off). Tier 2 will be for the desperate teams (or the bottom feeders looking to pick up more draft capital by taking on someone elses dead weight) The other 2 tiers will be simply to put butts in seats.
Finally: What changes a QB? Well, if Burrow gets hurt again will they have to think about his long term contract? If Tua plays well behind a "NFL Caliber" O line (last year he played with a bad college O line), will that move him up to tier 1?
So, what does this mean? Well, good QBs are going to get paid, and likely a pretty large amount of the Cap. Gone are the days of Tom Brady taking less to make the rest of his team better (or, to be fair, Bill B being such a cheapskate that he hoards money and draft picks). Maybe Mac Jones does the same thing but likely Bill keeps mac viable enough to win games but not stellar enough to ask for the payday.
I digress: Herbert, Burrow, Murray, are all on the "big payday" train. Tua, Wilson, and some of the second year guys are on the bubble. The good news (for the NFL) is Qbs are playing longer so the lack of quality at the QB position isn't as bad as it looked like it would be.
We will likely see 4 tiers of QBs (not including players on their first contract. I am talking about Qbs either on or approaching their second one)
1) Stud who gets paid. You know who they are.
2) The QB Divorcees. Guys who have worn out their welcome, or Teams who do not see eye to eye with their signal caller. Those teams will want to jettison this dead weight as soon as the milk goes sour. Wentz is he posterboy for this group along with Goff. Brees was part of this group when he went to New Orleans (Over Miami, sigh...) In this group I would likely link up a guy like Rivers or Matt Ryan. Tier one players for most of their careers but their teams moved on and they have a few more seasons in the sun (I guess Brady kind of sits here as well) or just wanted that change of scenery to advance their careers (I guess Watson is kind of both 1 and 2 here)
3) The bidding war "better than Journeyman" QB. I think this tier is a dying breed bc it has guys like Tannyhill and Cousins in it. (Tannyhill was a Tier 2 guy when he signed that second contract with Miami). If Miami sours on Tua this year he likely will fall into this tier (or Tier 4). Carr kind of falls into here even though he is still with the same team.
4) The true Journeyman.
As long as the draft keeps producing guys with talent (unlike the lean years where maybe 1 or 2 guys were considered good prospects) teams will all fish for Tier 1 (or hold onto tier one guys until the wheels fall off). Tier 2 will be for the desperate teams (or the bottom feeders looking to pick up more draft capital by taking on someone elses dead weight) The other 2 tiers will be simply to put butts in seats.
Finally: What changes a QB? Well, if Burrow gets hurt again will they have to think about his long term contract? If Tua plays well behind a "NFL Caliber" O line (last year he played with a bad college O line), will that move him up to tier 1?
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Maybe I'm reading between the lines, but are you suggesting they won't resign him if he isn't elite? Just playing the position doesn't ensure you get $50 million, does it?
This may be a QB driven league, but guys like Eli Manning and Nick Foles still have rings. Playoffs are still in reach with a good team and a guy who doesn't turn the ball over. If Tua can't throw more than 20 yards down the field... he isn't getting $50 million a year. How could you afford to do that for a guy that needs $60-80 million in receivers around him?
Tua is going to need to take a big leap to get that type of money. I'm not talking about drags and slants going for 75 yards either.
babydemon90
Footballguy
I DO wonder if the Goff/Wentz contracts will scare teams off from paying QB's based on a single good year.
But, you really don't have teams committing to QB's without paying them big money. If you're a good enough QB to be an unquestioned starter, you're going to get 40+ mil a year. You'd think there would be a market for 'good not great' at the 20 mil mark maybe? But the avg yearly drops from the guys that got 30 mil a few years back (when that was the top tier) to the first round rookie salaries REAL quick.
But, you really don't have teams committing to QB's without paying them big money. If you're a good enough QB to be an unquestioned starter, you're going to get 40+ mil a year. You'd think there would be a market for 'good not great' at the 20 mil mark maybe? But the avg yearly drops from the guys that got 30 mil a few years back (when that was the top tier) to the first round rookie salaries REAL quick.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Just to be clear, I'm not saying that Tua is going to get a giant payday. There is a very real chance that he doesn't look like the QB of the future for MIA... but if that's the case they aren't going to give him a long term $30 deal to throw drags and slants. IMO they will move on with Teddy Bridgewater in 2022 and then he might lose his job to a QB in the 2023 draft.TVT 0 N S T A said:
Bridgewater in CAR and Foles in JAX were not successful "value" starting QB's. Yes, Foles won a SB as purely on a backup QB contract. That's not an example of a starter getting signed to a reasonable contract to be the starter. That's a backup that was thrust into action due to injury.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
There has to be a middle ground here somewhere. If the market is saying a good QB's value is at $50mill there is still a market for a $30mill guy. No? If Tua bombs, sure... they'll start Bridgewater, but I don't think any team's long-term solution should be rolling Teddy out there every Sunday either.
It is extremely plausible that Tua is neither great nor terrible and signs for a reduced rate. They draft a RB in '23 and compete in the playoffs for the next couple years. If you sign 2 receivers for a total of $50-60 million a year and a QB for another $50 million... you don't have a lot of money for edge rushers, tackles, defensive backs. I think you can potentially build a decent team and have Tua play QB with playmakers around him but I don't see him being a $50mill guy, because of the talent acquired to get him (potentially) to produce $50mill QB-type numbers.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Any scuttlebutt links showing that Pitt tried moving up? Just curious since obviously they ended up not needing to actually do it. With the number of trades that actually took place it would surprise me if this were true.
-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
It will be interesting to see how Burrow's next contract ends up being structured but the Bengals have always valued QBs so it won't be an issue in terms of getting the deal done. (The real contract intrigue probably lies with Tee Higgins tbh)
Also I agree with the % of cap as really being the question - and how it projects to the out years of any contract. The cap is gonna grow ridiculously in the coming years. $30m will be the new $15m before you know it.
-QG
Also I agree with the % of cap as really being the question - and how it projects to the out years of any contract. The cap is gonna grow ridiculously in the coming years. $30m will be the new $15m before you know it.
-QG
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Hey TVT,
Fair question, I would refer to some of our resident Dolphins fans and you can see my work in the Dolphins' team thread. I have numerous posts in there breaking down all the moving pieces right now. I see light at the end of the tunnel for the Offensive Line which has been horrific at times trying to protect Tua. Most of the OL was very young along with Tua and lack of veteran experience and leadership hurt the progress of Tua mightily his first 2 seasons.
-Tua had a broken hip socket and I personally would have passed on him in the Draft for Herbert taking on the very next selection by LAC. Despite both QBs competing in the same number of Playoff games(NONE) anyone can see that Herbert is the more gifted QB in terms of raw ability/arm. Tua should not have even played his rookie year and Coach Flores was not excited about having to play him his rookie year. Physically he was not right.
-2021, last season he had busted ribs by Week 2, lost his starting WRs for much of the year and despite Waddle looking like a gem, he still was a small rookie WR that could only provide so much offense. His rib injury stayed with him long after he returned as the Miami starter.
-2022, my hope is he's healthy finally and the OL can give him more than 2 seconds to drop back and shoot, that's what he was forced to do last year.
As I was posting, most of the Miami Dolphins fans here will tell you I am a Tua critic borderline hater at times. That said i am done criticizing his work or projecting 2022 until i see the camp reports from the writers covering the team. Usually they don't lie and identify the athletes that are tearing up minim camps and then training camp. I believe Tua will find success in 2022, exactly how that translates to his stats and the team winning football games, that's for others to figure out.
I will continue to share that one of the factors pushing my thoughts that Tua will have success is actually the D-1-1, that's all 11 starters back on Defense which should mean good things and shorter fields for Tua to attack with the Cheetah and Penguin at his disposal, TE-Gesicki franchise tag and in the San Fran offense, usually TEs produce. Miami has 3 new legit running backs on the roster right now....Myles Gaskin might have dropped to 4th on the depth charts. New OC/Offense predicated on the Zone Blocking scheme, it's going to bring out the best in what Miami has on their OL, this won't look a thing like last year IMHO, it can't!
-Finally, Miami has a special get out of jail card this year, Teddy Bridgewater has to be one of the top back up QBs, Miami gave him $7.5M to be in the shadows behind Tua, help him grow but also if Tua doesn't lead the team, Teddy is ready to roll at a moment's notice.
All signs point to a career year for Tua at the moment but let's revisit in July/Aug and see how things are progressing. Video of Tua's arm which looks like he has been hitting the weight room recently. Looks much stronger than his rookie season and last year as well.
Cheers!
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I'm not saying Tua won't have a year, because I think Dolphins brass has done a hell of a job putting pieces around him. I am just arguing the chicken or the egg philosophy - is Tua good because they shelled out a ton of money for some weapons for him to throw to or is he good enough to let one of those weapons go. Likely, Tyreek is gone before they have to extend Waddle, but if you are constantly looking for a $30million WR to assist your $50million quarterback... is that a feasible model for NFL success?
I don't think it is... At some point, you just have to hope your QB is going to say - I am good with a cool $30-$40 million, get me some help. I'm not knocking Tua at all, but I don't think he is in the Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes category. Those guys are $50 million dollar guys.
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Fair point and it is hard to separate a good QB with a bad O Line with a serviceable QB w a good O line. The issue is a serviceable QB with a good line will command more money bc his stats simply look better (Dak for instance). I do not believe there is a QB compensation middle ground bc no QB is going to admit they are Mediocre. They all think they are the best and want to get paid that way or want to go somewhere that will pay them. It's only after the fall from grace that they go and take backup money and then hope for an injury to prove themselves all over again (and get that fat contract they wanted in the first place)
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Russel Wilson says hi....... 
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Russel Wilson says hi.......
Wilson has 1 year left, likely will get inked for a long term high dollar extension. Set to make $35M this year, maybe he could be had for something like 2 yrs/$100M and he can sign again in 2 more years or he could take something more like 3-4 years but then the contract will balloon up towards $200M. Does he want to win titles? In Seattle, Wilson was clear after the SB run, PAY ME! And that happened a couple times as I recall.
I am not the biggest optimist on Denver and Wilson in 2022, I might be one of the few that thinks in a tough AFC West they could possible end up 4th.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
yeah I just live out here in CO and all the talk is that with new ownership, new coaching, and the draft capital they gave up.....they will look to lock him up sooner rather than later.....and with the trend basically being the next guy up resets the market.....fully expect him to want to be in the 50 clubRussel Wilson says hi.......
Wilson has 1 year left, likely will get inked for a long term high dollar extension. Set to make $35M this year, maybe he could be had for something like 2 yrs/$100M and he can sign again in 2 more years or he could take something more like 3-4 years but then the contract will balloon up towards $200M. Does he want to win titles? In Seattle, Wilson was clear after the SB run, PAY ME! And that happened a couple times as I recall.
I am not the biggest optimist on Denver and Wilson in 2022, I might be one of the few that thinks in a tough AFC West they could possible end up 4th.
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