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Question about Torry Holt (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Tubalcane
- Start date
Musesboy
Footballguy
4-5
Sounds about right.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Define good year please. Is it by ranking? Top 10 finishes? Or overall production such as 1200+ yard or 7+TD seasons? Or both? I think his best seasons are behind him (2000, 2003-2005) but he should still be really good (top-10) for a couple (3 maybe 4) more seasons.
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ILoveMyLions
Footballguy
Good topic...
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Its not Holt you need to worry about... its Bulger; how long does he have?
lions327
Footballguy
Bulger is only 30, he has plenty of solid years ahead of him. I have zero worries about Bulger and Holt.
Banger
Footballguy
He's finished 2nd, 7th, 6th and 6th the last 4 years in final fantasy ranking among wr's. He was #1 in the league in targets and there's no reason why he won't be one of the most targeted players next year. His targets over the last 4 years have been 183, 129, 163 and 178. He's a good wr, plays on field that suits his game, has a good qb, gets tons of targets and is clearly the best wr on his team. I see no reason why his best days are behind him and expect him to put up numbers like he always has for the next several years.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I'm not just talking about his age... isn't he an RFA after this yr.. Bulger needs to have another injury free yr
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
I'd say 2 years of elite production is reasonable with the usual barring injury caveat with 2 more years of very good but not elite production on top of that.
Not necessarily in that order.
Not necessarily in that order.
GregR_2
Footballguy
Bulger has 8 years of NFL accrued seasons. You are only an RFA if you have 4 years or less. Also, there are reports all over as recent as a few weeks ago that the Rams and Bulger are working on an extension.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
You're proving my point for me. The last couple of seasons he's been really good (in the top 10) but nearly as good as people make him out to be (the best in the NFL). He's not even in the top 5 the last three seasons. That's evidence in and of itself that he's not as good as he once was. Seriously what are the chances of him at 31 averaging over 100 yards a game like he did when he was 24 and 27 years old.Highly unlikely if you ask me. Considering where he's drafted every season he's a little overrated FF wise. Frankly I'd expect more from someone targeted that many times.Besides it's not like I said he'd fall off the face of the earth. He should (who knows for sure) be one of the 10 best receivers once again. However it is important to note that as the Rams offense ran more through Steven Jackson last season Torry Holt's peformance fell off. Holt only had 1 more catch than SJax in 2006. The table just might turn in 2007.
I don't think it's a major problem and they both should get theirs but it's one more reason why Torry Holt will be overrated once again with many fantasy owners hoping against hope for a magical season which he has no way of achieving.
gianmarco
Footballguy
The top WR's get drafted where they get drafted not to finish as #1, but to not disappear and be almost a lock for that top 10 finish. That's about as much as you can predict and hope for when you draft your #1 WR. At the top, you're usually only talking about a few points difference among the top WR's and then there's a significant dropoff, not to mention irregularity. I don't draft Harrison or Holt or Chad Johnson because I expect them to be the #1 overall. I draft them because I KNOW they will finish top 10 barring a disaster or injury with as good a shot at #1 as any. If you don't think a 2nd, 7th, 6th, and 6th finish is good, then show me who's better? I can save the work for you and let you know it's Harrison and Chad Johnson, two more guys that people keep saying are overvalued yet consistently finish at the top. But go ahead and look and tell me who's been better the last 4 years of Holt isn't good enough with those finishes? Or are you good enough to predict the #1 or #2 WR each year? I'll take Holt over your yearly #1 guess any day of the week, and twice on Sundays (when it counts).
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
That's the thing about Holt. He offers little risk but considering where he's drafted every year lately (2nd round) he offers little reward too. Certainly not as much as Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison. If i'm drafting a wide receiver that early (at the expense of a running back) I want someone who I think will put up monster stats of at least 200+points. At least someone who could be in the top 5 of receivers which hasn't been Torry Holt the last three seasons. Hell he's only been in the top 5 once. And in that season (2003) he certainly wasn't a 2nd round draft pick. You were right to put him and Chad Johnson in the same boat. They're receivers who will put up very good but not great seasons year after year. Who unfortunately happen to be highly overvalued most seasons. They do however provide stability which can be a good thing. If you're hope is to draft a wide receiver who won't suck then Holt's your man. But if you're like most people here expecting Holt to put up some monster top-5 season which he's had only once in his career then you shouldn't hold your breath waiting for it to happen.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
I play in a ppr league and Holt does put up top 5 monster seasons. Those rankings are non-ppr. He's caught 91+ balls the last 5 yrs. And, honestly, I think my definition of great and yours "greatly" differ. We may just look for different things from our #1 WR. But to call Holt overvalued is probably a bit much. He may not be a value where he's drafted, but he's not OVERvalued. I'm getting what I pay for when I draft him and I don't mind the price.
Banger
Footballguy
At the end of the day you're really splitting hairs if top 5 is some magic hurdle mark. Last year for instance Holt was .3 pts from 5th and 7 pts from being #3. He was hobbled with a knee injury most of the year and had his lowest yardage year by more than 278 yards compared to his prior 3 year average so if healthy there's a good chance that he easily gets top 5. In 05 he was 1.8 pts for 5th and in '04 he was 4.1 pts from 5th. In '04 the top 3 wr's were Muhammad, Walker and Horn, in '05 the top 3 were S. Smith, Fitz and S. Moss, in '06 the top 3 were Harrison, Owens and Wayne. Look at the transient nature of the "top" wr's. Of those 9 wr's none have repeated twice in the top 3 the past 3 years. Give me rock solid Holt anyday of the week.
As far as the comparison to Owens/Harrison, Holt's 4 year fantasy point average is 201.25, Harrison's is 196.25 and Owens is 169.25. So even though Harrison/Owens have finished "top 5" more frequently (twice for Owens and 3 times for Harrison) they haven't averaged as many fantasy points over the same time period. Over the same time period Chad Johnson has averaged 190.75.
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lions327
Footballguy
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
When you're taking WR1, you definitely need a guy who can put solid, consistent numbers. Top 10 is what I shoot for; top 5 is merely gravy. Holt IMO offers one of the best shots at Top 10 production.My
kensat30
Footballguy
If you want to know the main difference between Holt and Chad Johnson just look back to 2003. 1700 yards. 115 catches. 12 TDs.
Holt gives you the best combination of #1 upside and top5 security versus any other WR IMO. Granted he's not as likely as say TO or SSmith or maybe even Marvin Harrison to be #1 overall at year end, but I think he has a higher ceiling than any of them except maybe Smith. And TO, SSmith, and Harrison have shown chinks in their armor in recent years. Hell, SSmith is so new on the scene, it could be considered that he hasn't even developed the stud "armor" yet to get chinks in. Holt has done it before, therefore it is possible. His track record is sterling. And I really have not seen a decline in play from Holt the past few years that would indicate he is on the downward swing of his career. Should be several years or the permanent loss of Bulger before Holt's production is adversly affected.
Keep in mind what Holt has had to overcome the past few years and still consistently produced at a top5 level. Last year it was injuries that hurt him and a new offensive playbook. Despite that, there were stretches last season where Holt was dominant. The year before that we saw Bulger get injured and a garbage replacement came in to fill his spot (Fitzpatrick anyone) Holt still put up top numbers. The reason you draft Holt in the 2nd round is for his resiliency. And even if you don't expect top3 WR numbers out of him, there is a decent chance that you will be rewarded if it all falls into place in 2007 like it did in 2003.
Holt gives you the best combination of #1 upside and top5 security versus any other WR IMO. Granted he's not as likely as say TO or SSmith or maybe even Marvin Harrison to be #1 overall at year end, but I think he has a higher ceiling than any of them except maybe Smith. And TO, SSmith, and Harrison have shown chinks in their armor in recent years. Hell, SSmith is so new on the scene, it could be considered that he hasn't even developed the stud "armor" yet to get chinks in. Holt has done it before, therefore it is possible. His track record is sterling. And I really have not seen a decline in play from Holt the past few years that would indicate he is on the downward swing of his career. Should be several years or the permanent loss of Bulger before Holt's production is adversly affected.
Keep in mind what Holt has had to overcome the past few years and still consistently produced at a top5 level. Last year it was injuries that hurt him and a new offensive playbook. Despite that, there were stretches last season where Holt was dominant. The year before that we saw Bulger get injured and a garbage replacement came in to fill his spot (Fitzpatrick anyone) Holt still put up top numbers. The reason you draft Holt in the 2nd round is for his resiliency. And even if you don't expect top3 WR numbers out of him, there is a decent chance that you will be rewarded if it all falls into place in 2007 like it did in 2003.
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Tau837
Footballguy
nygiants56
Footballguy
Holt is MONEY , but his age is something to be concerned about. The knee injury in 2006 is , too.
Bulger's health , and the stability of the O-line , are bigger concerns. you lose one guy on that line, or you lose Bulger, Holt's #'s plummet. Drew Bennett is NOT Kevin Curtis. Isaac Bruce is seeing significant drop-offs in production,catching a total of just 110 balls over the past 2 seasons. thats a significant drop-off from years previous. Bruce is clearly on the decline..so the question becomes, who steps up on the other side of the offense to keep defenses honest and free Holt from being doubled? McMichael? puh-lease! Bruce? nope. Bennett?!? haha..will he even make it out of training camp without injury?! probably not.
Six of Holt's 10 tds last season, came against NFC West foes. Sf held him to just 9-60-1 over TWO games, and they've strengthened their defensive backfield and LB corps for this year, it will be much tougher to run and/or pass on them.
granted, Seattle and Az have porous defenses that Holt burns up every time, but thats the problem. He only plays well, against lesser opponents. Holt failed to score a TD in 9 games last season. His 100+ yard games came against such juggernauts as Az ( 2 games), Det, Seattle.
in 2006, three of his four 100 yard games, came against NFC west foes.
look at the rest of his stats , and you'll see a striking resemblance to Andre Johnson, i.e., 7-75-0, 8-80-0, 6-65-0..
in 2005 , four of his six 100 yard games,came against NFC West foes, the other two coming against two of the worst defenses to ever suit up: Houston and Tennessee...
Looking at the Rams schedule for 2007, it doesn't look pretty, with games against Carolina, Dallas, Tampa, Baltimore, Atl ( and their great defensive backfield), Cincy ( one of the better defenses against the pass), N.O., GB + Pitt ( Both during fantasy playoffs , weeks 14/15). Again, Holt will get his stats in bunches, against Cleveland, Sea, Az..
but without a steady #2 WR opposite him, defenses might begin to key on Holt..that, and the shaky O-line, scares me to death with this team, including Sjax.
Bulger's health , and the stability of the O-line , are bigger concerns. you lose one guy on that line, or you lose Bulger, Holt's #'s plummet. Drew Bennett is NOT Kevin Curtis. Isaac Bruce is seeing significant drop-offs in production,catching a total of just 110 balls over the past 2 seasons. thats a significant drop-off from years previous. Bruce is clearly on the decline..so the question becomes, who steps up on the other side of the offense to keep defenses honest and free Holt from being doubled? McMichael? puh-lease! Bruce? nope. Bennett?!? haha..will he even make it out of training camp without injury?! probably not.
Six of Holt's 10 tds last season, came against NFC West foes. Sf held him to just 9-60-1 over TWO games, and they've strengthened their defensive backfield and LB corps for this year, it will be much tougher to run and/or pass on them.
granted, Seattle and Az have porous defenses that Holt burns up every time, but thats the problem. He only plays well, against lesser opponents. Holt failed to score a TD in 9 games last season. His 100+ yard games came against such juggernauts as Az ( 2 games), Det, Seattle.
in 2006, three of his four 100 yard games, came against NFC west foes.
look at the rest of his stats , and you'll see a striking resemblance to Andre Johnson, i.e., 7-75-0, 8-80-0, 6-65-0..
in 2005 , four of his six 100 yard games,came against NFC West foes, the other two coming against two of the worst defenses to ever suit up: Houston and Tennessee...
Looking at the Rams schedule for 2007, it doesn't look pretty, with games against Carolina, Dallas, Tampa, Baltimore, Atl ( and their great defensive backfield), Cincy ( one of the better defenses against the pass), N.O., GB + Pitt ( Both during fantasy playoffs , weeks 14/15). Again, Holt will get his stats in bunches, against Cleveland, Sea, Az..
but without a steady #2 WR opposite him, defenses might begin to key on Holt..that, and the shaky O-line, scares me to death with this team, including Sjax.
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Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Gee, I wonder why you didn't mention Holt's 2004 stats. Wait, I know....because they don't support your assertions.In 2004, only 2 of his 7 100 yard games came against the NFC west. And only 2 of his 12 TDs.
In 2003, 4 of his 10 100 yard games came against the NFC west (exactly in line with the % of games he played against them). 4 of his 12 TDs were against the NFC west.
What does this tell me? TDs are volatile, especially for WRs. And 100 yard games, while nice, aren't exactly perfect predictors in a sample size of 6 games per year against division foes.
So while your stats are all accurate, they tell me very little.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
thought i read (FBG & FFI) that STL has the projected easiest schedule against passing defenses in '07?
don't think there OL is shaky... they came together at the end of last year... they get back pace, who might be one of the top two LTs in the game with walter jones (ogden is howing his age more, imo), stetterstrom looked great as a rookie, OC up for grabs (mccollum maybe the favorite this season, & rookie 5th rounder fry may have been second or third best center in draft after kalil & satele), incognito is feisty & looks like one of the better young guards in the NFL, & first rounder barron has a ton of athleticism & physical ability but made too many boneheaded drive killing penalties, but reportedly has shown more maturity, professionalism & dedication to his craft in the off-season, so perhaps the light has come on... the rams did give up too many sacks in '06, but injuries caused the unit to be in disarray until they solidified at end of the season... as a close rams watcher, i feel better about the state of the OL than i have in years...
don't think there OL is shaky... they came together at the end of last year... they get back pace, who might be one of the top two LTs in the game with walter jones (ogden is howing his age more, imo), stetterstrom looked great as a rookie, OC up for grabs (mccollum maybe the favorite this season, & rookie 5th rounder fry may have been second or third best center in draft after kalil & satele), incognito is feisty & looks like one of the better young guards in the NFL, & first rounder barron has a ton of athleticism & physical ability but made too many boneheaded drive killing penalties, but reportedly has shown more maturity, professionalism & dedication to his craft in the off-season, so perhaps the light has come on... the rams did give up too many sacks in '06, but injuries caused the unit to be in disarray until they solidified at end of the season... as a close rams watcher, i feel better about the state of the OL than i have in years...
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Banger
Footballguy
That's all interesting info/research but don't most players beat up on easy opponents? I don't care who my player gets the points against or why. Whether he scores his 10 tds over 7 weeks or 9 doesn't matter either. Holt will still lead the team by a wide margin in targets and will be in the top 5 in league in targets again. At the end of the day he is going give you 1300+ and 9+ td's just like every year.....
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jurb26
Footballguy
I've gone through this before with Holt, but it never seems to go away. Using that 4 year window is extremely friendly to Holt vs. his competition. Just as using that 3 year window last year was. Why? Holt had a career year in 2003 that he had never before came close too and hasn't come close to since. Holt's Fantasy points by seasons:
1999, 114
2000, 119
2001, 178
2002, 154
2003, 241
2004, 197
2005, 187
2006, 178
Banger
Footballguy
I don't disagree but it's really splitting hairs though. He still avgs 187 pts over the 3 year period, Owens avgs 171, Harrison 199 and CJ 189. All are great, all are consistent and the difference between Harrison's avg 199 (the best) and Holt 187 your talking .75 fpts/week. My point is not that Holt has been better (or will be) than Harrison/CJ/Owens, my point is just to show the year to year consistency between the guys in response to the fact that Holt is not a "top 5" wr because he's finished 7th, 6th, 6th the past couple years. I'll happily take any of these guys on my squad.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
He should be good for many more years because his game is not predicated on speed. He runs GREAT routes and has very solid hands. Those stay with you a little longer than speed.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
when is the last time you can remember harrison or holt being lit up by a DB? they are kind of like the marcus allen's of WRs, very smooth, athletic & have great field awareness, rarely putting themselves in situations where they take the big shot... this already has extended harrison's career, & holt should enjoy similar longevity... i also like the fact that holt is known for his dedication to the game, work ethic, desire to be great, he takes care of his body, etc. For the next 3-4 seasons he will also be chasing HoF status, which should keep his motivation level high... linehan looks like a keeper, & if they re-up bulger, other than pace & bruce, the rest of the offensive core (jackson & leonard, bennet, mcmichael & klopfenstein, most of the rest of the OL) should stay intact for the time frame in question...
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Liquid Tension
Footballguy
Bob Magaw said:
People have been writing off Harrison for years as well and he is as rock solid as you can find. Isn't he really the best redraft WR because his floor is the highest of anyone and his ceiling is also the highest? Holt is similar but on a younger scale (and with a little less ceiling I believe)
