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I think it'll be branch
Branch may not even make the roster. They have Branch, Gaffney, and Stallworth fighting for one WR spot. The signing of Demps means an additional WR get cut or Edelman.
Im with you on this. Amazes me that Lloyd is being ranked above Welker. I'll take Wes all day over Lloyd.Another Kool-Aid drinker. Lloyd in front of Welker
then he'll definitely lose his receptions
Are they running the same McDaniel offense that Lloyd worked when both were with Broncos & Rams?
FWIW, I have Welker at WR16 and behind Lloyd too.
That would make sense as I just used him as one of two keepers this year. Perfect!
It's PPR.
Welcome back.
I mostly disagree with this overall.The Pats tried to get Welker signed, but they disagreed on the number of years and the bonus moeny. It's not like they didn't make any attempt to keep him.A better statement would be that Hernandez is a WR that also can line up as a TE. NE has ONE elite tight end. Hernandez pretty much has "TE" listed as his position on the roster but more and more has been migrating AWAY from playing TE.If anything has held true in the past 5 years, it's that Wes Welker is Tom Brady's security blanket. IMO, Welker only loses a few targets and Gronk and Hernandez lose more. I suspect to start the season that Gronk will have to stay in to block more as the Pats have several lineman with health issues and some guys with limited experience to back them up. Hernandez has also been practicing as H-back and fullback, so he may also get looks carrying the ball or blocking.If I were to guess (and I will emphasize this is a guess and a guess based on nothing but my own intuition), Welker remains Option 1 in the passing game and will get his 150 tarqets. Gronk and Lloyd become options 2 and 2a. Hernande becomes the 4th option. We saw last year what the TEs did to free up Welker. Now imagine what adding Lloyd will due to give Welker even more room underneath.I don't think Welker has another 1500 yard season, but I can still see 105-1200-6. Basically, Welker has to hand in about 2 targets a game to feed the other guys this year. Take a few targets from Gronk and Hernandez and add in most of the ones Branch got last year, and that should be ample targets for Lloyd.So it's very possible Lloyd does very well . . . but I don't think it's at the expense of Welker.
Are you me?
Absolutely
These are my exact thoughts as well as why Welker is overrated in 2012, even in PPR formats. The player that Lloyd likely will take the most from is Welker. Lloyd isn't a big TD producer so Gronkowski will still be the featured target down there, with Hernandez the second option. Welker is also not a big TD producer, so his inflated value is dependent on getting 110+ receptions, which he needs over 160+ targets. There just isn't enough footballs to go around, even in the pass happy NE offense.That said, I still think Welker will have a good year, but not to justify his ADP.....95/1100/7 is realistic.
Your projection more than justifies his adp... lolLiterally every year its the same tune, "welkers over rated" and every year Welker proves them wrong. The only difference this year is they brought in a "big name" WR so the Pats finally have someone that can stretch the field, his targets may go down but I dont see how this makes Welker not the #1 target, nor the WR to own in NE, not saying both wont have good years.
for noobs this is the guy to listen to on all things pats fwiw.
I expect him to retire a patriot, around the same time as Brady.For the people that expect a huge year from Welkero you think Welker will be with the team in 2013? I am interested in your answer here, because if you think there is a strong chance he won't be back (They would need to negotiate a long-term contract or franchise him a 2nd time. At age 31, I just don't see it). I would put the chances that he is gone after this year above 80%.So why would this team heavily involve Welker going forward? Why wouldn't they begin to work on the formations that they will be using for many years to come?
C'mon now. Brady can sit back in a cozy pocket and pick apart defenses for another five years.Father Time is undefeated against receivers, especially small ones whose bread and butter is quickness.I expect him to retire a patriot, around the same time as Brady.For the people that expect a huge year from Welker
Disagree. The rams or jags will overpay him next year.I expect him to retire a patriot, around the same time as Brady.For the people that expect a huge year from Welker
For the same reason teams acquire players in baseball or basketball for 1 year or even a half a year in some cases, to take their chance at winning the big one. Welker may or may not be targeted as much this year but if he's not I don't believe it's because he may be gone in a year and the Pats want to practice getting their future players the ball, they want to win today and Brady and Co. will do whatever works best to win with what they have on the field.In my opinion, Welker's numbers go down just because there are so many options on the Pats. I could see games where if Brady sees a mismatch he'll pass the ball 6 times in a quarter to Welker but the next game it might be Gronk or Hernandez's turn.For the people that expect a huge year from Welker
Using your logic, then why franchise him and pay him $9.5 million for this year (more than double than the year before) to NOT use him. If, as you theorize, they could have let him walk this year and done what you said . . . use Hernandez in the slot (or Edelman as some others have suggested) and saved almost $10 million.If we play this out, by NOT signing him to a contract, they could SAVE money when it comes to Welker. Had they come to terms on a new deal, they would have had to pay a sizeable bonus on top of two years of his salary.I would guess that the amount they would have paid out in real dollars in 2012 and 2013 would have been MORE than franchising him in both those season.After being franchisedd twice, it would be unlikely any team would want to shell out big money for an undersized slot receiver turning 34 that is a perfect fit for NE but probably not in many other locales. Welker at that point would likely take a lot less than he would now.I also have to wonder what a "huge season" is? I would think his totals this year will be similar to what he produced in 2007 or 2008. Was that a huge season?I'd be interested to hear of examples where teams franchised a player and DID NOT use that player as much as possible.For the people that expect a huge year from Welker
I expect the patriots to do very well for the next few years, I also expect Brady to reconsider playing well into his 40s with 5 superbowl rings.Im nothing if not modest.C'mon now. Brady can sit back in a cozy pocket and pick apart defenses for another five years.Father Time is undefeated against receivers, especially small ones whose bread and butter is quickness.I expect him to retire a patriot, around the same time as Brady.For the people that expect a huge year from Welker
Brady will also be effective much longer than Welker, which was my only point.I expect the patriots to do very well for the next few years, I also expect Brady to reconsider playing well into his 40s with 5 superbowl rings.Im nothing if not modest.C'mon now. Brady can sit back in a cozy pocket and pick apart defenses for another five years.Father Time is undefeated against receivers, especially small ones whose bread and butter is quickness.I expect him to retire a patriot, around the same time as Brady.For the people that expect a huge year from Welker
Targets Games 12-16:Welker: 12, 11, 10, 6, 19, 11 = 69
I like avoiding the question. Wasn't Hernandez coming back from injury? Didn't the Patriots have things wrapped up and they were coasting to the playoffs? I would love your explanation on why they used Hernandez more than Welker in the playoffs and Super Bowl (when both were healthy), when things counted the most? Welker is a 31 year old who is good within this system. But he has one role. The short pass. Hernandez confuses defenses, is way younger, and had multiple roles. I stand behind my phase out of the 31 year old receiver. And even in a phase out, I have him catching 90 passes for 1,026 yards and 5 TDs.
Is this exactly age 31, or 31 and older?Because Jerry Rice did 100/1000 three times after age 31, and went 92/1,211 with Oakland at age 40.
Jerry Rice is a HUGE exception, he is the best WR to ever play in the NFL.
Doesn't make me wrong.
I'd buy this argument a lot more if it were anyone else but Welker. Welker is an anomaly in terms of usage patterns. How many other receivers have averaged 110 receptions over a 5 year span? How many WRs posted a 74% catch percentage over a 5 year span? How many lead their teams in yardage despite averaging just 11 yards per reception? Rod Smith is about as comparable to Wes Welker as he is to Larry Centers.
Do you think an emerging Hernandez and a new WR like Lloyd will take targets away from Welker?
Hernandez yes. Lloyd no. I'm simply saying Welker really isn't the most appropriate player to pull historical data on, since he really doesn't have any historical analogues. Yeah, guys like the Smiths and Mason and McCaffrey fell off around this age, but they were doing something completely different than what Welker is doing.
uh....because there's a season in 2012.you can work on your 2013 projections next summer.For the people that expect a huge year from Welker
