It'll be REALLY interesting to see how Lance performs at next year's Ironman World Championships.
I am looking forward to this as well!!!!!Looking at the 2009 results, Lieto took second, 2.5 minutes behind Alexander. Comparing them, to what Lance has to do:
Swim:
Alexander: 50:57 (12th overall out of the water = damn fast)
Lieto: 51:07 (24th out of the water = still damn fast)
We know Lance used to be (= 20 years ago) a very good swimmer (from Wikepedia)=
At the age of 12, he began his sporting career as a swimmer at the City of Plano Swim Club and finished fourth in Texas state 1,500-meter freestyle. He stopped swimming after seeing a poster for a junior triathlon which he entered and won easily.
In the 1987–1988 Tri-Fed/Texas ("Tri-Fed" was the former name of USA Triathlon), Armstrong was the number one ranked triathlete in the 19-and-under group; second place was Chann McRae, who became a US Postal Service cycling teammate and the 2002 USPRO national champion. Armstrong's points total for 1987 as an amateur was better than the five professionals ranked that year. At 16, Armstrong became a professional triathlete and became national sprint-course triathlon champion in 1989 and 1990 at 18 and 19, respectively.
I don't think he'll be more than 3-4 minutes behind with proper training as he certainly will be a good technical swimmer (great coaches), and also certainly has stamina. He was a fairly quick swimmer in '89 and '90 = I think he'll do decent; maybe 3:00'ish minutes back??T1:
Alexander: 1:44 (as fast as anyone)
Lieto: 1:44 (as fast as anyone)
Lance will most likely lose time here and in T2 as quickness in transition comes from experience; I'd expect Lance around 2:00.
Bike:
Alexander: 4:37:33 (= 24.2 MPH; 16th fastest overall)
Lieto: 4:25:11 (= 25.3 MPH; Fastest bike)
Lance can be faster than this, but it will likely cost him on the run if he tries to make up too much time here. IF he can average 26.0 MPH, he'll make up approx. 7:00 on Lieto. More realistically he'd go 25.6 = He could be leading after the bike!
T2:
Alexander: 2:04 (fastest overall)
Lieto: 2:21 (16th fastest)
Lance = again will likely lose a little time here, and likely more than in T1 = :45i'sh

.
Run:
Alexander: 2:48:05

(= 6:25 p/m = 4th fastest overall)
Lieto: 3:02:35 (= 6:59 p/m = 26th fastest overall)
Lance = His fastest marathon was NY in '07 @ 2:46:43. Hypothetically, you add :30 p/m he'll go 3:00, if you add 1 minute per mile and he's looking at 3:13'ish.
I can't imagine Lance winning the race, but I can imagine him being near the lead, or in the lead post bike = GREAT viewing!!!
edited to add:
FYI: Speedo warning