@pbm107 I would advise you to just tuck behind the 3:05 pacer for as long as you've got a headwind. The forecast( I know it's early but this is pretty typical of this race) is calling for strong N winds(27 mph with 44 gust). The good news is that you'll have a tailwind for the last 5.
@Juxtatarot Good luck!
I had an interesting run the other day. I started running with a group that runs through my hood most mornings lately and pretty much all of them are on strava. All in pretty good shape. I mentioned to them that I had created a new segment that we pretty much cross every morning. One of the guys asked me who had the course record and I respond like a total arrogant #####, "me after today". Well, this got the competitive juices flowing apparently. One guy responds with "I guess we're racing!". It's funny that you could see my HR spike with just the thought of a mini race.
As we approach the segment one of the guy says he's going to see how long he can hang on to me. He's got good speed. I think he's run a sub 20 5K pretty recently. The segment is a bending arch that's just a hair under 600m. Probably right at 1/3 of a mile. Right before we're about to pick it up we're discussing how far it is..."is it a quarter of a mile?" "I think it's a bit further than that". This brief conversation was is funny in retrospect.
Anyway, so I pick it up a tad right before we turn down the arch and then try to lay down a nice smooth stride. My legs feel decent. I feel like I'm moving pretty well but I'm not checking pace or anything. I know my HR is getting pretty high quick though. My man is hanging right there. I'm not really looking over so I'm not sure how hard he's working. I think I'm faster than him but you never know at such a short distance. We round the first corner and he's still right with me. Round the second corner and I'm thinking this is the home stretch. I notice him starting to falter and I figure if I pick it up I can knock him out. I surge and drop him but much to dismay I realize I went a bit too early. There's probably a good 200m left. But I've committed and try to hang on. Finish a good bit ahead but it was harder than I've ran in a LONG time. 2 other guys coming speeding through to the finish as well. Pretty cool that 4 out of 6 guys just said #### and ran a segment like a race on a random Wednesday.
So we're chatting afterwards and the guy I was racing tells me that he looked his watch when I left him and he said we were running at a 4:30 pace. I kinda look at him in disbelief but sure enough when I got home I had the new course record with a 4:42 pace!

Obviously I never would have ran like that if someone wasn't pushing me. I was pretty stoked to find out I had that in the tank without any speed training.