Alright, tell me what to do.
I was in good shape for this race last year. It was similarly a couple weeks after the relay. Unfortunately, weather was awful that day (race time temp and dew point of 82/72 at the start). I also
went out way too fast and PR'd my 1 mile for the 1st mile (

) . I ended up finishing 23:00 flat (7:24 pace).
Here are my priorities:
1) Race this one smarter with even pacing (slight negative split if possible)
2) <23:00
Based on my 2 x 1.5 mile race, which I think is my most recent reliable fitness calculator, the equivalency says I can run a 5K at 7:07 pace, or 22:06. I don't think I've done enough the last couple weeks to be in top shape so that number needs to be lower. Weather won't be as bad as last year but won't be as good as that 1.5 mile race either. Looking at 73/68 at race start. This course is mostly downhill which helps. I do have to factor in my donation one week ago as well.
A) I can start at 7:25 pace to be safe and have the best chance to hit both of my goals above.
B) I can start at 7:15 pace, which kind of splits the difference between last year and predicted, and should still do well (option I'm leaning)
C) I can start at 7:10 pace and just be aggressive and see how things go. I hate that my predicted time is so close to being 21

x and that's somewhat tempting even though very unlikely, I think.
Have at it, coaches.